Who Would Be the Best Twin if the Bases Were 81 Feet Apart?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Just work with me here. If this happened, how different would it make things? And who'd benefit?This is an article breaking down the four players I view as legitimate candidates to be the Twins’ best player if the bases were 81 feet apart. If the bases were 10 percent closer to one another, and their distance thus better fit baseball’s fervent devotion to multiples of three (three strikes, three outs, nine innings, and now, 81-foot basepaths), which Twin would best help the team hang on to its primacy in the AL Central?

 

A former editor of mine, Sam Miller, was a genius. When he wrote an article at Baseball Prospectus about where to put a pit on a baseball field, if there was to be a pit, he knew better than to engage on the question of whether there should be a pit. Too messy. Right up front, he made it clear: the article was about where to put a pit, if there was a pit, operating under the assumption that that was just the way it was going to be. Same here: we’re not debating whether the distance between all bases should be shortened to 81 feet. That’s a given, until you depart this page. The question is: Which Twin would be the most valuable, if the bases were 81 feet apart?

 

Obviously, it wouldn’t be a pitcher. There might be pitchers who would be the most valuable player on their team if the bases were 81 feet apart, like Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom, but no Twins hurler combines strikeouts, a low walk rate, and the ability to induce weak contact well enough to be a candidate. A game with 81-foot basepaths is a game focused on speed, contact, and defense, not on that weird little bump in the back half of the infield.

 

Among the position players, there are four guys with legitimate cases: Byron Buxton, Luis Arráez, Max Kepler, and Josh Donaldson. Back in the old days, when the basepaths were long and the game was slower, there were cases to be made that Miguel Sanó, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, and Jorge Polanco were as valuable as this quartet, but now, forget about it. Sanó’s trouble making contact is a more costly disadvantage than ever, and he has no positional or defensive value. Cruz is just a hitter, and his power is a smaller relative edge now, thanks to all the hits and extra bases to be found all over the diamond even without elite pop.

 

Garver’s framing is great, but he runs poorly, and his below-average throwing arm is a bigger deal. Great throwing catchers will take advantage of a throw 13 feet shorter than their former one, despite their fielders needing to range further to cover the bag on steal attempts, but Garver isn’t going to be able to do it. Besides, robot umpires can’t be far off, and then framing becomes a dead issue. Polanco simply doesn’t play the kind of defense now required of a shortstop, even as the league takes shifting to a new level. He doesn’t have the range or the arm to get batters out when they have just 81 feet to cover between home plate and first base.

 

On, then, to the real contenders:

 

Buxton

 

Strengths: Absolutely every ground ball he hits is now a likely hit. It takes a perfect play on a ball hit right at a shallowly-positioned infielder to get him, and even then, it has to be a strong-armed infielder. Remember, each base is 81 feet from the next, so he’s also going to start racking up hustle doubles, line-drive triples, and more inside-the-park home runs than a Dead Ball shortstop facing Little Leaguers. In addition to all of that, it’s never been more important to have a defensive whiz in center field, and Buxton’s strong arm will come into play often, too.

 

Weaknesses: Strikeouts still hurt, and through every iteration of Buxton’s maturation, he’s been vulnerable to them. Pitchers are going to be pitching for the strikeout in practically every plate appearance, especially with Buxton up there, and he’s exploitable.

 

Arráez

 

Strengths: Even using the old-fashioned dimensions, Arráez was a tough hitter to defend. Now, he’s virtually unstoppable. The reliable outs are harmless fly balls, ground outs hit to predictable places, and strikeouts, and hardly any of Arráez’s plate appearances end with any of those outcomes. He’ll frustrate strikeout-hungry opponents to no end with his ability to spoil pitches. He’s also on the right side of the infield, where the impact of weak defense is slightly lower.

 

Weaknesses: He still isn’t a great fielder, and it’s still a problem to have anything short of a brilliant infield defense with these dimensions in place. Arráez also doesn’t run well, making him a dreaded baseclogger atop the lineup.

 

Kepler

 

Strengths: Kepler is such a good right fielder that, as five-man infields become more common, he and Buxton allow the Twins to feel comfortable going with two-man outfields from time to time. He’s not just fast on the bases, but quick in his changes of direction, allowing him to take the extra base, and that’s a bigger part of the game than ever.

 

More than that, though, Kepler’s balanced offensive skill set is so appealing. He’s a left-handed batter with speed, so putting the ball in play is a good mathematical move in itself, and he’s sustained a well below-average strikeout rate for the last two years, while also demonstrating above-average power and plate discipline.

 

Weaknesses: Kepler did show some vulnerability, some new holes in his swing, during the season half of last season. He’s also become a dead pull hitter, and teams will force him to change that habit by populating as much of the right side as possible until he starts consistently driving the ball to left field again.

 

Donaldson

 

Strengths: A great athlete with a rocket arm, Donaldson is the kind of third baseman who can still turn batted balls to the left side into outs. He’s always shown a special penchant for charging bunts and throwing with oomph on the run, which should help the Twins control the opponents’ bunting game. He also has the plate discipline to get on base very consistently, and under these new dimensions, having a runner on base puts more pressure on the defense than it did before. Of course, he’s also an excellent power hitter, and pitchers don’t figure to suddenly find a way to shut down that aspect of his game.

 

Weaknesses: Slow-footed and aging, Donaldson can’t take advantage of the basepaths. He’s also swung and missed within the zone at a fairly high rate in recent years, and as pitchers hunt for strikeouts, he might see his own whiff rate rise to a troubling extent.

 

The Verdict

 

The pitchers are still 60 feet, six inches away. They still have nasty sliders, and changeups, and fastballs with such extraordinary spin that they hop over bats. Buxton will still strike out too much, and though he’ll take extra bases on hits and outs with awesome, hilarious frequency, he won’t be able to steal more, because the catchers will get bigger advantages in those isolated cases than runners will. Arráez won’t help the team prevent runs, and won’t develop power any time soon.

 

That leaves the two more balanced options, and of them, Kepler seems to have the edge. His impact will be more two-sided; the outfield is really the place where teams’ fates will be decided. His ability to make contact so often without sacrificing power is also more valuable than ever, now that the bases are only 81 feet apart. This change should bring balance and action back to baseball, and it should make Max Kepler a superstar.

 

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[Wookiee of the Year]

I saw that headline and thought, "That looks like a Sam Miller question." Glad he got a mention!

 

This was fun!

[Dantes929]

"if the bases were 81 feet apart. If the bases were 10 percent closer to one another, and their distance thus better fit baseball’s fervent devotion to multiples of three" .....81 is a better multiple of 3 than 90?