Can I Interest You in a Four-Man Rotation?

[Patrick Wozniak]

If we are lucky enough to get a baseball season in 2020, at least one thing is certain – it’s not going to be 162 games. Whatever shortened concoction manifests, it will undoubtably increase volatility, but also provide opportunities for teams to get creative. Tony Wolfe of FanGraphs recently brought up the possibility of a return to the four-man rotation. Could it work for Minnesota?With the increased volatility of a shortened season a four-man rotation could potentially strengthen a team by allowing its best starters to pitch more often. The decreased workload caused by fewer games would theoretically allow pitchers to pitch on less rest while still throwing fewer pitches than they would in a typical season. Russel A. Carleton studied the effect of rest on starting pitchers for Baseball Prospectus back in 2012 and found that the amount of rest between starts doesn’t decrease a starter’s effectiveness (though high pitch counts in previous starts do).

 

Certainly interesting, but considering the current depth of Twins pitching along with the abundance of doubleheaders likely to come with any version of a 2020 season, a six-man rotation might be more realistic. However, Wolfe did a rough study of which teams would most benefit from a four-man rotation and lo and behold, our Minnesota Twins make an appearance.

 

He simply used FanGraphs projected rotations for each team, cut out the fifth starter, and increased the remaining WAR of the rotation by 25%. Obviously with doubleheaders teams would still need swingmen, but it’s just meant to give us a rough picture of which teams would most benefit. Here’s the results:

 

Download attachment: Four-man Rotation FanGraphs Chart pic.png

 

I was initially surprised to see Minnesota amongst the teams listed, but a closer look at our projected rotation brings at least some clarity. FanGraphs projects the top-five starters to be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, and Jhoulys Chacín. Cutting Chacín from the rotation definitely makes it better. One could certainly quibble for Randy Dobnak as the fifth starter (I would!), and maybe he would mitigate some of the drop off that comes with Chacín, but I think the main takeaway is more of Berrios, Odorizzi, and Maeda would be a good thing.

 

Of course, Rich Hill and Michael Pineda further complicate matters. Depending on when the season starts (if ever), Hill could potentially be ready to go from the start. Talentwise, he knocks Bailey from the rotation, but pitching an oft-injured Hill on shortened rest might be a tough sell. Alternately, he would make a lot of sense as a swingman (especially considering the doubleheaders), where his innings could be limited and he could join the rotation for a potential postseason run.

 

If Pineda’s suspension is not reduced he will miss a significant chunk of the season (39 games to be exact). He could potentially be eased into the rotation via a bullpen/swingman role, or injury or ineffectiveness could rear its ugly head and clear a spot for Pineda.

 

Minnesota could also keep things fluid switching from a four-to-five man rotation and mixing in swingmen as needed. With expanded rosters come expanded opportunities and the Twins would be wise to keep all options open. Using only four starters would give the added benefit of multitudes of relievers that could be called upon at any time (whereas starters are unavailable on their rest days). Avoiding injury is imperative so treading with caution is well warranted, but if less overall innings allows Minnesota the opportunity to pitch their best pitchers more often, it’s certainly worthy of consideration.

 

What do you think? Is a four-man rotation something the Twins should consider or just a dumb idea that helped bring this article into fruition? Can you think of any other outside-the-box maneuvers that could be implemented in a shortened/altered season?

 

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[ashbury]

The natural logic is that it's easier to find 4 good starters than 5. Another way to look at it is to decide who your #5 would be, and then ask whether his stuff would play up better in short stints from the bullpen. Well, not just "better", but unusually better, since in most seasons starters' ERAs are worse than relievers'.

 

If #5 is Jhoulys Chacín then I'm not too sure - for his career his ERA as a starter is better than in relief, although his OPS-against is a more normal split.

[AceWrigley]

I think suspensions should be adjusted to match a shortened season. Half a season? Cut the suspension in half. Not doing so over penalizes the suspension recipient in my view. 39 / 162 X (number of season games) should be Pineda's suspension length.

 

A 4-man rotation does look rather tempting in a short season, with your 5th starter/long men available for double header duty, assuming an increase in double headers to get more games in.

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

I think suspensions should be adjusted to match a shortened season. Half a season? Cut the suspension in half. Not doing so over penalizes the suspension recipient in my view. 39 / 162 X (number of season games) should be Pineda's suspension length.

 

A 4-man rotation does look rather tempting in a short season, with your 5th starter/long men available for double header duty, assuming an increase in double headers to get more games in.

I agree completely. It doesn't make any sense to me why the MLB wouldn't adjust the suspensions to fit the length of the season.

[Twodogs]

Depending on the number of Double headers per week a 6 man rotation might be best, especially with guys like Odorizzi who typically only goes 5 innings anyway.

[Doctor Gast]

It looks like to me that this study is based on a shorten season w/o doubleheaders. A condensed season w/ doubleheaders is more advantageous to Twins who has greater depth of starters which put us much closer to the top of the list. A shorten season is more advantageous to those teams w/ more quality & not quantity. So I`m more in favor of of a condensed season. I`m not in favor of a prolonged season going into late Oct. or later, because even when the virus subsides in the summer it could come back later in the fall. We should prepare for this