Will Michael Pineda Catch a Break in 2020?

[Thiéres Rabelo]

Throughout the week, rumors of a possible start of the MLB season got some fans excited. Though very unusual, the potential formats would allow players to come back to action and get their paychecks. Some of the players would benefit more than others from coming out of the hiatus and one of them could be Twins starter Michael Pineda.ESPN’s Jeff Passan broke the news of a plan to have all teams play only in Arizona (here are the details). Not a lot of people loved the idea, like Baseball Prospectus’ Craig Goldstein, who really disliked the idea. But that was just one of the ideas being proposed. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported today another one, which would eliminate the traditional leagues and rearrange the clubs in new divisions, playing in Arizona and Florida.

 

Whether we like them or not, those plans indicate that MLB and the players are very open to having even an unorthodox season, just so baseball can be back. One of the players who could benefit the most from the return of baseball is Twins’ starter Michael Pineda. After so many rough patches in his career, being able to come back and continue playing the way he did in the second portion of 2019 could be huge for him and Minnesota.

 

A brief look back at his issues

Pineda was a rookie sensation for the Mariners in 2011, being named to an All-Star Game that very year. However, since the conclusion of that season, things have not been easy. To begin with, after being acquired by the Yankees in early 2012, he started dealing with multiple shoulder injuries, which ended up sidelining him for the entire seasons that year and in 2013. Back at the majors in 2014, injuries did not give him a break and another shoulder injury cut his season short, allowing him to deliver only 76 1/3 innings. That was also the year of his infamous pine tar incident, which earned him a 10-game suspension.

 

In the following two seasons, injuries weren’t as much of a problem for him, but he started to slowly decrease his productivity. Despite reaching at least 160 2/3 innings in both years, his ERA was never lower than 4.37 and he posted a career worst FIP for the time being, of 3.79. Some of his peripherals did improve in that span, like xFIP and K%, but, overall, hitters had figured him out. Then, after a not so promising start of the 2017, he was diagnosed with a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament, which forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery.

 

His rebirth with the Twins

We all know the story of how the Twins smartly bet on Pineda in late 2017 and patiently waited for him to be ready for action in 2019 after rehab in the previous year. Nobody knew what to expect, as Pineda was a much, much different player from the one he was with the Yankees and the Mariners. For starters, he was no longer the flamethrower he once was. His velocity dropped to 92.8 mph on his four- seamer, the first time ever it was below 94.1 mph. He relied much more on his command, which had always been decent. Still, it was hard to predict the outcome in the beginning of the season.

 

Knee issues which started in late 2018 and persisted until the beginning of last year caused Pineda to really struggle in the first months as a Twin. From March to May, he posted a 5.34 ERA in 11 starts, allowing hitters a .803 OPS. He also posted a 5.26 FIP and 4.94 xFIP, while striking out batters only 20.3% of the time. So, yeah, the first impression wasn’t the best.

 

But when he came back from the IL, he turned things around. In his last 15 starts, from June to September, he posted a 3.10 ERA, 3.18 FIP and 3.87 xFIP. He was incredibly solid and the aforementioned velocity decrease was not at all a problem, because he managed to increase value of most of his go-to pitches. His four-seam had a 9.3 wFA (Four-seam Fastball runs above average), the first time since his rookie year that it was positive. Also, he turned his changeup into one of the best in the game, with a 5.4 wCH (career best) and a .253 wOBA, the 27th-lowest in the league. He was also one of the best pitchers in MLB at pitch tunneling, according to Fangraphs’ Michael Augstine. ESPN defined Pineda as “one of the most underappreciated improvements made by the Twins” in 2019.

 

The suspension for PED’s. What will happen?

Hopes were really high for what Pineda could bring to the table in the postseason. Unfortunately, he tested positive for hydrochlorothiazide, a banned substance he consumed by taking a medication to help him manage his weight. He was given an 80-game suspension, that was reduced to 60 games after appeal. He started serving his suspension in the final 21 games of the season, with the remaining 39 supposed to be served this year.

 

But now that the season, if it’s played at all, is much likely going to be shortened, isn’t it feasible to wonder if MLB could alter his suspension? At least for me, it is. In a 162-game season, Pineda’s suspension would represent roughly 24% of the games. Maybe I’m crazy here, but I don’t think it’s absurd to consider this.

 

If the major leagues actually happen this year, Pineda is certainly one of the players I’m most looking forward to seeing. If his second half of the season last year wasn’t a fluke, he can definitely be one of the great contributors for the Twins to try to win the division and maybe go further in October. He needs this. We need this too.

 

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[USNMCPO]

MLB already reduced his suspension from 80 games to 60. I doubt they will bend any further.

[jjswol]

I believe that MLB has already stated that the year long suspensions for Houston's GM and manager will expire in one year regardless if baseball is played in 2020 or not. Wouldn't it stand to reason that something similar would be done for someone like Pineda? Say is the season is shortened by 40 games that his suspension would be cut by 25%? Then again, when has MLB logic ever made sense.

[rdehring]

Believe I read somewhere that this was covered in the deal baseball struck with the players last month. His suspension would stand at 39 games. It wouldn't affect his being eligible for the playoffs...he would be eligible. And should there be no baseball, it would not carry over to 2021.  

 

But that was when baseball may have been hoping for a full season. Should everything get reworked with an 80 or 100 games season, suppose his and other suspensions could get addressed.

[Darius]

I’m kind of torn on whether it would be beneficial for his suspension to be reduced significantly.

 

On paper, sounds great. But, what are his odds of staying healthy? Clearly, he is more likely to be an impactful starter in the playoffs with a lighter workload in the regular season.

 

Of course, managing him in a manner similar to last year is an option as well. But, is pitching a few weeks in between DL stints for maintenance a better option than a shortened season and no DL stints? No clue which would have him feeling better come playoff time.

[jimbo92107]

MLB is suffering an existential crisis, just like other pro sports. In an "all hands on deck" situation like this, they should cancel all suspensions, to get every able player on the field as soon as possible. 

 

This is not my typical appraisal of fines and suspensions, but then, this is not a typical problem for the league. We'll be lucky to see baseball in any form this year. I'll take what I can get. 

[NatteringNabob]

Looking at the proposed ideas to have a season. I absolutely hate the Arizona/Florida combined plan. It is so imbalanced it’s not even funny. You build a team to compete in your division and your league and then you end up in a division with the Rays, Braves, Red Sox, and Twins together? And some of those Arizona divisions are so mediocre. Bad idea.

[DocBauer]

If my memory is intact...hard to say these days...while Pineda's numbers to begin 2019 weren't exactly great, he showed promise and was pretty good for the first 3-4 IP before tiring. We all saw what he did when he was ramped up. Talent has never been the issue. And while velocity may be down, experience has helped negate that with just learning to be a better pitcher. (I do wonder if his velocity may have increased slightly from June 1st on once his legs were under him but I have no data).

 

I understand that when you read the initial agreement between management and the union, it reads as if all suspensions will be fully enforced. But as pointed out already, that agreement was made when there might have been thoughts of a full season, or close to it. We are in a very fluid state rignt now. Further, jt has never been acceptable to me that susoended players were able to count days in the IR as part of their suspension. It also blows my mind that suspensions for Astros personal would count if there is no season at all. Which means, really, there is no punishment at all except for unknown future possible exclusion due to involvement.

 

To me, logic and basic fairness would indicate all disciplined players should still be punished, but have their sentence pro-rated along with the rest of all additional pro-rates for any 2020 season. Otherwise, really, their punishments are actually being lengthened. And while I support punishment for any transgression for any player, a sense of proper justice should also be maintained.

[nowheresville]

It would seem like the obvious solution is just to pro-rate any suspensions to the length of the season.

 

If the season is cut in half and play 81 games, then the suspension is also cut in half, so instead of 39 games, Pineda could come back after 20 games.

 

Of course something that simple would probably never be considered by mlb.