Just How Disciplined Are Twins Hitters?

[Patrick Wozniak]

Discipline is probably something that we could all use a bit more of, but some are more disciplined than others. Baseball players are no different, and hitters who excel in plate discipline give themselves a huge advantage. By avoiding strikeouts, laying off bad pitches, and taking walks, hitters greatly increase their chances of success. So how disciplined are Twins hitters?Wouldn’t it be nice if we could quantify plate discipline and package it into a nice little number, maybe even a “plus” number like wRC+, where 100 is league average? On my own I wouldn’t know where to begin, but luckily Ben Clemens of FanGraphs has us covered.

 

Clemens recently attempted to quantify plate discipline in a new stat he christened NOC+ (Non-Contact Management +). It basically takes everything a batter does when they don’t hit the ball (strikeout, walk, hit by pitch) and combines the results into the nice plus number we were looking for (based on the values of each non-contact event). A hitter with an above-average NOC+ has more leeway as he could still become an average or better hitter with below-average batted-ball skills, but it’s obviously best to be good at both. For a better picture of how NOC+ is calculated please read Clemens’ piece.

 

That brings us to the Twins. Clemens does us another favor and lists every batter’s NOC+ from 2019. A quick scan of the list and you’ll notice quite a few Twins names near the top. In fact, of the 360 players listed, six members of the would-be 2020 club make the list. Luis Arraez (118.93 NOC+) and Willians Astudillo (117.32) come in at numbers four and eight respectively, while Max Kepler (111.40) is 40^th, Ehire Adrianza (110.06) is 55^th, Polanco (108.28) is 76^th, and Josh Donaldson (108.26) comes in at 77^th (though Donaldson obviously did it with the Atlanta Braves). To take Arraez as an example, his 118.93 NOC+ means he was 18.93% better than the average hitter (100 NOC+) in plate discipline.

 

As is evident by the inclusion of Astudillo, a good NOC+ number doesn’t make you a good hitter per se. According to NOC+, Astudillo’s plate discipline is 17 percent above average, but a cursory glance at his statcast numbers tell you that his batted- ball results are well below average (2.7% barrel rate vs. 6.3% league average, the list goes on). Of course, Arraez managed to be a pretty remarkable hitter with similar NOC+ numbers and unflattering statcast results, but Arraez walks more, hits more flares (which fall in for more hits), sprays the ball all over, and gets better pitches to hit by not chasing nearly as much as Astudillo. Still, if Astudillo can find a way to make better contact, his NOC+ numbers point to a decent pad to launch from.

 

As we continue scrolling downward we see a few Twins who are slightly above average in Eddie Rosario (104.53) and Mitch Garver (102.71), and a few who are slightly below average in Nelson Cruz (98.02) and Byron Buxton (97.10). All these guys were better than average when they made contact, so combined with their average non-contact skills they come out as above average hitters. And if Rosario’s ranking gives you some pause (he certainly doesn’t equate with above average plate discipline in my mind) keep in mind that he strikes out at a low clip (14.6 %).

 

As we get to the bottom of the list, we find three Twins hitters. Jake Cave ranks 309^th overall with a 90.89 NOC+ while Alex Avila comes in at 336^th with an 85.72 NOC+. Miguel Sano comes dangerously close to last place at 350 with an 80.20 NOC+. The common denominator is strikeouts, as all three have strikeout rates north of 30% (Avila and Sano were at 35.1% and 36.2% respectively). Fortunately, all three hit the ball hard and rank well in quality contact skills such as barrel rates. The streaky nature of all three players is likely tied to their inability to make consistent contact and diminished quality of contact skills would be especially detrimental to these types of hitters. This is especially concerning for the 33-year-old Avila, who saw his numbers drop significantly over the second half of 2019.

 

When the 2019 Minnesota Twins made contact with the baseball good things tended to happen. Twins hitters were among the best in barrel rates and their 307 home runs are evident of how potent their bats were. Although Clemens himself questions how useful his NOC+ stat really is (it’s new and needs further study), it’s encouraging to see good overall non-contact skills to go along with the great batted ball results. More of the same would be more than welcome in whatever manifestation the 2020 season takes.

 

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[Craig Arko]

They probably don't swing at a bad pitch this year.

[ashbury]

Plate Discipline probably is better measured by a pitch-by-pitch analysis, than by the outcome of each plate appearance. Many a ringing double off of a 3-1 pitch is because the batter didn't bite on the slider buried in the dirt that would have made it 2-2. And so forth.

 

However, the Little Red Hen rightly asked, "who will help me grind the wheat and bake the bread?" Not I, said ashbury.

 

NOC probably tells us more than having nothing.

[Trov]

The NOC+ stat, much as the linked article says is of little help, more just for fun.  I would never adjust my analysis of a player based on it.  The main reason is for one it says Eddie is above average in plate discipline, so that right there discounts any and all value of the stat.  The man will swing at a pitch above his head, pretty sure I have seen him do it, and get a hit doing so.  That is not disciplined, that is just being able to make contact at anything thrown up there.  

 

Sano on the other hand, one of worst, will take many close pitches or try to check swing on them.  I would argue he is much more disciplined at the plate than Eddie, but is willing to take much more pitches.   For me the eye test says use this stat with a huge grain of salt.  

 

I personally think plate discipline is not something you can quantify in a stat.  Walks and strikeouts cannot adequately do it.  I would argue more walks than strikeouts would be best sign of it, but even that could just mean very few plate appearances get to a count that could result in a walk or strikeout, because early pitch was put in play.  

 

I commented on the chase rate as being a bad elevator as well, because it takes out the human umpire element.  When baseball moves to electronic strike zones then I would say the chase rate is the way to do it.  However, until then, when balls get called strikes and vice versa, and the chase rate stat, to my knowledge, does not value how bad of chase it was, it can be too skewed on board-line pitches. Maybe, someone will look at how bad of a chase a pitch is.  However, remember when Joe Nathan got a strike out when I guy took a pitch that landed in other batter box and umpire called it a strike?  If hitter swung at that it would have been a bad chase, but the umpire called it a strike so how do you evaluate the hitter discipline in not chasing that pitch?

 

As we try to put numbers to evaluate every aspect of the game, some things can only be evaluated by your eyes, at this point.  

[Minny505]

 

Plate Discipline probably is better measured by a pitch-by-pitch analysis, than by the outcome of each plate appearance. Many a ringing double off of a 3-1 pitch is because the batter didn't bite on the slider buried in the dirt that would have made it 2-2. And so forth.

 

However, the Little Red Hen rightly asked, "who will help me grind the wheat and bake the bread?" Not I, said ashbury.

 

NOC probably tells us more than having nothing.

 

As stated, this has little-to-no value in measuring discipline. The headline was rather misleading That's on Ben Clemens, not Patrick Wozniak.

There has to be an algorithm just waiting to be discovered that aggregates swing rate on pitches in the zone and out of the zone. That is what I was expecting when I clicked on the article and was super excited to read. This was a bit of a letdown.