Twins' Top Outfield Prospects Shine in Shortened Spring

[Nash Walker]

Before the Twins’ facility in Fort Myers was shut down due to concerns over the coronavirus, Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff were putting on a show.Kirilloff stays hot

 

MLB Pipeline ranked Kirilloff as the No.10 prospect in baseball heading into the 2019 season. The 6-foot-2 inch lefty struggled with a wrist injury for most of the summer. He still mashed righties (.302 BA, .816 OPS) but struggled to hit lefties (.244 BA, .634 OPS), or for much power. For the first three months of the season, Kirilloff hit .272/.337/.381 with only four homers in 67 games. Perhaps finally healthy in August, Kirilloff looked like his usual self. He hit .311/.351/.500 with five homers and five doubles in 26 games. He continued to mash in the playoffs, hitting .381/.435/1.000 with a home run in four straight games.

 

When healthy, Kirilloff’s ability to hit and hit for power is as impactful as any. Those qualities look major league ready. He dominated spring training by hitting .429/.455/.810 with two homers and two doubles in 10 games. Now entering his age-23 season, Kirilloff was likely set to spend most of his season at Triple-A Rochester. Kirilloff has shown remarkable upside with what projects to be average defense in the outfield or at first base. His debut in Minnesota is moving tantalizingly closer. Keith Law recently ranked him as the No.9 prospect in baseball.

 

 

In his breakout 2018, Kirilloff hit .348/.392/.578 with 20 homers in 130 games between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers. He tied super-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the fourth most home runs in the minors and ranked fourth among players who played at least 100 games in OPS (.970). He led the minors in hits (178), doubles (44), and total bases (296) and ranked second in RBI (101) behind Nate Lowe (102).

 

Larnach continues meteoric rise

 

Larnach won the National Championship at Oregon State after hitting .348/.463/.652 with 19 homers and 19 doubles in 2018. The Twins made him the 20th pick of the following draft and he hasn’t missed a beat since. He made his professional debut shortly after the draft and hit .303/.390/.500 between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids.

 

The Twins have been rather aggressive with Larnach’s ascension. He started 2019 at High-A Fort Myers after only 24 games in Cedar Rapids. That wouldn’t be the end of his climb. He hit .316/.382/.459 in the pitching friendly Florida State League and the Twins deemed him ready for more. He joined top prospects Royce Lewis and Kirilloff in Pensacola at Double-A to finish the season and posted an identical OPS (.842) as he did in Fort Myers.

 

Larnach was awarded as the Twins’ Minor League Player of the Year. He was invited to spring training and of course, resumed raking. He hit .333/.467/.708 with three home runs, five walks, and just three strikeouts in 30 plate appearances. Every strong quality has a negative externality. Larnach sprays the ball all over the field, but because of this, has been knocked for a lack of pull power. He seemed to put that to rest this spring. He hit an absolute moonshot to right at Hammond Stadium against the Tampa Bay Rays on March 6th (I was there). The power should develop, and Larnach, standing at 6-foot-4 inches and weighing 225 pounds, has rested most doubts when they surface.

 

 

The future is bright

 

So who is the better prospect? Well, it won’t matter unless a trade opportunity pops up. If the Twins were to pull the trigger on a blockbuster deal for, say, a frontline starting pitcher, one could speculate that Larnach or Kirilloff will be part of the package heading out. They’re both left-handed corner outfield bats with high floors and underrated ceilings. The Twins are in a good position to either pair them in their lineup, or trade one for a piece that could help bring them to the World Series.

 

The 2020 season may be not happen. That would be a major blow to a special Twins team. However, Larnach and Kirilloff gave us a glimpse of what we may see for the next several years. The duo combined to hit .378/.462/.756 with five home runs, two doubles and 10 RBI in 45 spring training at-bats. The pair is a big reason why the Twins have the No.7 farm system in all of baseball via MLB Pipeline.

 

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[DocBauer]

Personally, I would have included Lewis in this article. He also struggled through some injures, like Kirilloff, that affected his season. But he finished stronger and seemed healthy and ready to go so they sent him to the AFL where he was the MAP.

 

Like the others in regard to SSS, he may have started slow but then heated up big time, and flashed leather, before things got shut down.

 

I am NOT opposed to trading prospects to bring in a difference maker like a stud pitcher. But when I look at the potential still of Berrios, and keeping Oddo, the potential of Thorpe and Dobnak, the potential of a couple young stud arms oh so close, additional depth on its way, I wonder if the Twins aren't better off doing right now something they have been accused of, hoarding prospects.

 

Cruz will have to hang it up the next year or two, probably. Finances and young talent may push Rosario off the team, no matter how much we love and enjoy him. There are no guarantees, of course, but tell me you can't find room for Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Duran and Balazovic over the next couple of seasons.

[AceWrigley]

Lewis probably wasn't included because he is a shortstop and the article is about outfielders, but he is a great prospect. It looks like both Kiriloff and Larnach have the ability to make the adjustments needed to have success at the MLB level. I think Lewis has a little ways to go yet, but he has the tools and makeup to make an impact for the Twins.

[TopGunn#22]

Spot on Doc.  Depending on who they are looking to acquire as a stud SP (and I have to admit, I've been pushing for Chris Sale and Syndergaard   DOH !!)  the Twins are better off keeping both Larnach and Kiriloff.     I could see a scenario for 2021 where Cruz has retired or moved on, Sano becomes a DH who occasionally plays 1B, Rosario is traded and there's Larnach in LF and Kiriloff at 1B.    Both these kids will HIT.    Of that I have little doubt.

[USNMCPO]

 

Spot on Doc.  Depending on who they are looking to acquire as a stud SP (and I have to admit, I've been pushing for Chris Sale and Syndergaard   DOH !!)  the Twins are better off keeping both Larnach and Kiriloff.     I could see a scenario for 2021 where Cruz has retired or moved on, Sano becomes a DH who occasionally plays 1B, Rosario is traded and there's Larnach in LF and Kiriloff at 1B.    Both these kids will HIT.    Of that I have little doubt.

How about another area? What if Buxton never gains (regains?) the ability to hit? From all accounts Lewis played very well in CF in the AFL. Is partial seasons of a poor hitting yet outstanding fielding Buxton worth more than a potential ++ hitting and + fielding Lewis? I would prefer Lewis at SS but would not be against using him at another position like CF. His speed and arm plus hitting are a very intriguing combo.

[rdehring]

I agree that both Kirilloff and Larnach are almost ready to become the foundation of that next wave of Twins.  Hopefully, there will be a partial minor league season for them to gain that valuable experience to be ready in 2021.  

 

As for trades, had the Mets asked me about Kirilloff for Syndergaard, my response would have been what else are they going to add.  That's how strongly I feel about Kirilloff, and Larnach, now that last year and this spring is behind him.

 

Don't know whether Cruz will return in 2021, so it may be 2022 before your scenario plays out.  But sure can see Kirilloff splitting time with Sano at first and DH.  Could also give Kepler a blow in right when he needs a day off or is hurting.  As much as I like Rosario, can see Larnach in left field on opening day 2021. 

 

Kind of like back before Kubel tore up his knee in the AFL.  The Twins have not one, but two of the better hitting prospects in all of baseball on the cusp of stepping into the box at Target Field.

 

[howieramone2]

What I read was the Mets asked for Kirilloff and Lewis for Thor.

[Darius]

If they continue to hit in the minors, I just don’t see a good rationale for not finding ABs for them in some way as the season progresses.

 

Not only from a transcendent talent standpoint. Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cruz, Marwin, Arraez, etc all suffered significant injuries. Chances are, they’ll be needed at some point. Playing someone in a lower tier, talent-wise, for the sake of service time would be disappointing.

[DocBauer]

How about another area? What if Buxton never gains (regains?) the ability to hit? From all accounts Lewis played very well in CF in the AFL. Is partial seasons of a poor hitting yet outstanding fielding Buxton worth more than a potential ++ hitting and + fielding Lewis? I would prefer Lewis at SS but would not be against using him at another position like CF. His speed and arm plus hitting are a very intriguing combo.

 

And I don't disagree with your proposal. In an ideal situation, of course, weird and fluke injuries are done, (goodness knows Buxton has had his share), and he learns to conserve his body better and starts to become a full season player.

 

Should the opposite happen it would be my hope that Celestino would continue to develop and emerge allowing Lewis to stay in the infield. Not that he couldn't continue to be a versatile player who could also cover some OF time.

 

Like rdehring stated, I am also a big fan of Rosario. And I'm not ready to let him go by any means. But between LF/1B/DH/RF coverage you can easily see a path to both Kirilloff and Larnach making a mark if Cruz and Rosario are removed from the equation over the next year or so. Again, not that I'm looking to kick anyone to the curb at this point.

[Steve Lein]

I was at the game on the 6th too, and you are correct, Larnach's HR was an absolute bomb!

 

Even more fun though, was the Matt Wallner walkoff

[AceWrigley]

 

What I read was the Mets asked for Kirilloff and Lewis for Thor.

Hmmm... and now that Syndergaard has a "Thor" elbow (thorry), not making that trade looks awesome.