Helfand: “early June start appears out of picture”

[Vanimal46]

 

I see your point of view. Yes, money is involved, but this isn’t about greed. I would think the owners are taking the biggest financial hit.

 

This isn't about greed? What is it about then? 

[sftwinsfan]

I think we could really use something like this,.Would be nice to focus people's attention if only for a few hours a night on something besides how many people died that day, job losses, and how pathetic their 401k is looking. People could use the distraction. It would be good for baseball if they are willing to do it and take precautions. 

[twinkies8791]

I like it as long as the players coaches etc get tested, also would a lot more people to stay home to watch the games wouldn't surprise me if this works or not

[glunn]

 

This isn't about greed? What is it about then? 

Maybe making money is only part of the equation. Maybe the fans could get a lot of joy during an otherwise bleak period of time. Maybe most of the players would enjoy being able to play even with these restrictions, and maybe their participation could be voluntary.

 

Hollywood is basically shut down -- the pipeline of films and television shows is becoming empty. I like the idea of trying to have some baseball to entertain our nation, so long as the safety of the players and coaches is a very high priority, and I would like to see the NBA do something similar with its playoffs.

 

The Twins are loaded this year, and the way that things are going there may be no season at all. I believe that the idea of doing this for a while is worth exploring.

[Vanimal46]

Maybe making money is only part of the equation. Maybe the fans could get a lot of joy during an otherwise bleak period of time. Maybe most of the players would enjoy being able to play even with these restrictions, and maybe their participation could be voluntary.

 

Hollywood is basically shut down -- the pipeline of films and television shows is becoming empty. I like the idea of trying to have some baseball to entertain our nation, so long as the safety of the players and coaches is a very high priority, and I would like to see the NBA do something similar with its playoffs.

 

The Twins are loaded this year, and the way that things are going there may be no season at all. I believe that the idea of doing this for a while is worth exploring.

Sure, the fans would love to see baseball again. I want to see baseball again. Let’s take a step back and look at the big picture. Why is this a top priority? Why are we dedicating health officials’ time right now drawing up this plan? Let’s get the real world figured out first.

 

Let’s also think about what you’re hoping the players do. Isolate themselves from their families for multiple months. These are relatively young men with young kids at home. They’re in a union, so it’s opening up another can of worms if you say a player can voluntarily opt out of playing this season.

 

The main takeaway I’m seeing from your post is I’ve run out of new movies to watch on Netflix. So dance monkey, dance for my entertainment.

[glunn]

 

Sure, the fans would love to see baseball again. I want to see baseball again. Let’s take a step back and look at the big picture. Why is this a top priority? Why are we dedicating health officials’ time right now drawing up this plan? Let’s get the real world figured out first.

Let’s also think about what you’re hoping the players do. Isolate themselves from their families for multiple months. These are relatively young men with young kids at home. They’re in a union, so it’s opening up another can of worms if you say a player can voluntarily opt out of playing this season.

The main takeaway I’m seeing from your post is I’ve run out of new movies to watch on Netflix. So dance monkey, dance for my entertainment.

I don't know what the players will be paid, if anything, if the season is cancelled. Maybe some of them need the money. Maybe some of them love to play so much that they are willing to quarantine for a shortened season, maybe 8 to 10 weeks.

 

I don't know how many players might want to opt out, or how the players union might approach this. But if enough players want to do this, then I think that it's worth exploring.

 

Also, it seems to me being away from family for a shortened season (perhaps 2 or 3 months) does not seem like an unbearable burden in an era of video communication. Military men and women make this sacrifice for even longer periods of time, and they don't get paid nearly as much as baseball players. Or maybe the families can also be part of the quarantined group.

 

I agree that this would be daunting if it were from May through September, but I think that June through August 15th would make for a decent short season, then there could be a break for players to spend time at home then return for playoffs. Or, hopefully, there will be a COVID treatment by then.

 

I think that there may be room for something good here without any monkey dancing, and that baseball would make this quarantine a lot more bearable for a lot of people.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Let's worry about getting actual real life back up and running...

It looks like covid-19 is here to stay. The world was not able to contain it because it was too easily transmittable. So, if the virus isn’t going away, and a safe vaccine is still many, many years away... well... I’d be happy to hear your thoughts or anyone else’s thoughts.

 

It may be that staging a makeshift MLB baseball season is part of the solution. To get real life, or some semblance of our past way of life, back up and running.

 

I am not saying this to inflame anyone or to sound asinine. MLB and MLBPA are asking the questions about how to make this work, rightfully so, in my opinion.

[Nine of twelve]

If I were in charge of administration of this plan at this time here is what I would require.

All players, coaches and staff to be involved (this includes everyone from every team from clubhouse attendants to bus drivers to food preparation workers; EVERYONE) would travel to their workplaces and be isolated from everyone else for two weeks. Repeat: no one else comes in. Ever. At the end of that two-week period everyone would be tested. If there are no positive tests then the plan can proceed, and everyone involved would have contact with no one outside the tested cohort until the risk to the public has fallen to a reasonable level. If anyone leaves and wishes to return another two weeks of isolation followed by a test would be needed.

This is a logistical nightmare. Lots of sanitizing would be required. Security at residences, training facilities, and stadiums would have to be extremely tight. There would be no contact with media unless each member was also part of the original tested cohort. And there's also the matter of having available the many thousands of tests that would be required. The last I heard was there weren't enough even for the general public.

In short, the effort and resources required to give us a spectator sport, an activity that is VERY low on the essential-services spectrum, would be much better placed on higher priority activities, such as producing protective gear for essential services and medical equipment for critically ill people. I'm sorry if anyone disagrees, but that's just the way I think it is and I think it's selfish and borderline unpatriotic to seriously consider such a plan.

[Vanimal46]

It looks like covid-19 is here to stay. The world was not able to contain it because it was too easily transmittable. So, if the virus isn’t going away, and a safe vaccine is still many, many years away... well... I’d be happy to hear your thoughts or anyone else’s thoughts.

 

It may be that staging a makeshift MLB baseball season is part of the solution. To get real life, or some semblance of our past way of life, back up and running.

 

I am not saying this to inflame anyone or to sound asinine. MLB and MLBPA are asking the questions about how to make this work, rightfully so, in my opinion.

If it’s not safe enough for the Average Joe to return to their office, it’s not safe enough for athletes to continue playing their sports. Period. If that happens to last a year, so be it. We will survive without live sports.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If it’s not safe enough for the Average Joe to return to their office, it’s not safe enough for athletes to continue playing their sports. Period. If that happens to last a year, so be it. We will survive without live sports.

You didn’t address my point about the virus not being contained. You also seem sure “it” will only be a year. Why such confidence? I’ve read reports that call that timeline wildly optimistic.

 

So let me take a different tack with you. It appears the NFL is still planning to go ahead with training camp in late July. Do you agree with that? Do you think football—all football— should be cancelled in the fall? Do you think the public (these are football fans, remember—a much different breed than baseball fans) do you think they will accept that there’s no football in the fall and continued sheltering through next winter? When you answer, keep in mind that this would not be “regular life, but without the football.” We are talking about sheltering indoors, shortages, unemployment, despair, all of that continuing etc

[Vanimal46]

You didn’t address my point about the virus not being contained. You also seem sure “it” will only be a year. Why such confidence? I’ve read reports that call that timeline wildly optimistic.

 

So let me take a different tack with you. It appears the NFL is still planning to go ahead with training camp in late July. Do you agree with that? Do you think football—all football— should be cancelled in the fall? Do you think the public (these are football fans, remember—a much different breed than baseball fans) do you think they will accept that there’s no football in the fall and continued sheltering through next winter? When you answer, keep in mind that this would not be “regular life, but without the football.” We are talking about sheltering indoors, shortages, unemployment, despair, all of that continuing etc

I think all sports will be canceled. There’s 4 months for the NFL to figure out whether they can actually play out the season. The NFL, like the other major sports, probably know it’s over for 2020 but are not ready to make the announcement.

 

I’m not confident about any time frame where Covid-19 is over without a vaccine. I can CONFIDENTLY say the MLB season starting by May is a pipe dream.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If I were in charge of administration of this plan at this time here is what I would require.

All players, coaches and staff to be involved (this includes everyone from every team from clubhouse attendants to bus drivers to food preparation workers; EVERYONE) would travel to their workplaces and be isolated from everyone else for two weeks. Repeat: no one else comes in. Ever. At the end of that two-week period everyone would be tested. If there are no positive tests then the plan can proceed, and everyone involved would have contact with no one outside the tested cohort until the risk to the public has fallen to a reasonable level. If anyone leaves and wishes to return another two weeks of isolation followed by a test would be needed.

This is a logistical nightmare. Lots of sanitizing would be required. Security at residences, training facilities, and stadiums would have to be extremely tight. There would be no contact with media unless each member was also part of the original tested cohort. And there's also the matter of having available the many thousands of tests that would be required. The last I heard was there weren't enough even for the general public.

In short, the effort and resources required to give us a spectator sport, an activity that is VERY low on the essential-services spectrum, would be much better placed on higher priority activities, such as producing protective gear for essential services and medical equipment for critically ill people. I'm sorry if anyone disagrees, but that's just the way I think it is and I think it's selfish and borderline unpatriotic to seriously consider such a plan.

I disagree that MLB is being borderline unpatriotic for thinking about how to play their season.

 

And remember, the season is going to look wildly different. They are not trying to make it the way it was before. For some of the demands you require, MLB may decide they are better off entirely without. (For example, while players obviously need to eat, I cannot see how interaction with food workers would be necessary.)

 

I agree testing capability will play a big part. I personally think health care workers should be a top testing priority, but after that, I’m not sure. If you are not going to prioritize professional athletes for the tests, who would you prioritize?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think all sports will be canceled. There’s 4 months for the NFL to figure out whether they can actually play out the season. The NFL, like the other major sports, probably know it’s over for 2020 but are not ready to make the announcement.

I’m not confident about any time frame where Covid-19 is over without a vaccine.

I can live with that answer for now—but ask me in a month or two.

 

(Agree, May is a pipe dream.)

[Nine of twelve]

 

 It appears the NFL is still planning to go ahead with training camp in late July.

I haven't read anything about this subject so I don't know for sure, but it's probably more accurate to say that they are making their plans just in case training camp will be able to begin as currently scheduled even though they realize there is a significant chance they will need to cancel or postpone. It's much easier to plan for camp and then cancel as opposed to doing it the other way around.

[Nine of twelve]

 

I agree testing capability will play a big part. I personally think health care workers should be a top testing priority, but after that, I’m not sure. If you are not going to prioritize professional athletes for the tests, who would you prioritize?

Oh, let's see... grocery and other retail workers, police, EMT's, other first responders, prison workers, judges and other court system workers, mail and other delivery workers, educators and other school workers, day care workers, auto repair workers, hair salon workers, bar and restaurant workers, road and building maintenance workers, public government service workers, need I go on?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Oh, let's see... grocery and other retail workers, police, EMT's, other first responders, prison workers, judges and other court system workers, mail and other delivery workers, educators and other school workers, day care workers, auto repair workers, hair salon workers, bar and restaurant workers, road and building maintenance workers, public government service workers, need I go on?

No, that is not a priority list. You are just listing professions.

 

I agree they all should be tested but if there are a limited number of tests, you will still to need to prioritize within that list.

[Nine of twelve]

 

No, that is not a priority list. You are just listing professions.

I agree they all should be tested but if there are a limited number of tests, you will still to need to prioritize within that list.

OK, fine. You asked who I would prioritize if I'm not prioritizing professional athletes. I would prioritize each of those jobs and many more ahead of professional athletes. For the purpose of answering your question the exact order does not matter. Or, if you like, they can be grouped into one category of workers defined as those more important than professional athletes. Then those workers could be labeled priority number one and professional athletes can be priority number two. Workers grouped into the category defined as those less important than professional athletes can be priority number three.

[The Wise One]

For the numbers people

https://econintersect.com/pages/analysis/analysis.php?post=201911150136

 

Interesting in that 4.3b total tv money 2.23b fan revenue.  That does not add up to 10b  The average ticket price might be a mistake as I would believe that there are higher priced market with better attendance than lower priced markets. that 2.23 could easily be 3 billion.  3b in merchandise and food? The money coming in from tv would cover it. The teams wouldn't make money this year. With no other new sports they might be able to get people interested in baseball.  That is if Hellickson vs Verlander is on.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

OK, fine. You asked who I would prioritize if I'm not prioritizing professional athletes. I would prioritize each of those jobs and many more ahead of professional athletes. For the purpose of answering your question the exact order does not matter. Or, if you like, they can be grouped into one category of workers defined as those more important than professional athletes. Then those workers could be labeled priority number one and professional athletes can be priority number two. Workers grouped into the category defined as those less important than professional athletes can be priority number three.

The next question would be if I could get you to change your mind. If the number of people in Priority Group 2 (the athletes and workers who support them) is just a tiny fraction of the number of people in Priority Group 1, and we collectively decide that there is a potential greater benefit to having a sports league going that outweighs others considerations, then can we reserve some tests for the sports leagues so they can operate and give us something to rally around as they have often done in the past.

 

I know it looks like I’m prioritizing the well-off over the less fortunate. But I have always been an advocate for workers and poorer families in normal times and in a non-broken system we would already be helping those get through this terrible time to the maximum extent possible. However, as I think through this, I do think some of the people in your first priority group need to get tests and benefits ahead of any athletes or before any leagues start up again.

[The Wise One]

 

OK, fine. You asked who I would prioritize if I'm not prioritizing professional athletes. I would prioritize each of those jobs and many more ahead of professional athletes. For the purpose of answering your question the exact order does not matter. Or, if you like, they can be grouped into one category of workers defined as those more important than professional athletes. Then those workers could be labeled priority number one and professional athletes can be priority number two. Workers grouped into the category defined as those less important than professional athletes can be priority number three.

There are not even enough tests for the symptomatic people. Why is there an argument over non sick people being tested?

[Nine of twelve]

 

There are not even enough tests for the symptomatic people. Why is there an argument over non sick people being tested?

I thought it would go without saying, but I guess it doesn't, that those in need of urgent medical care should of course always be first priority.

I think the discussion that HBD and I have been having (or maybe monopolizing) was which jobs should have higher priority for testing than professional athletes.

[Nine of twelve]

 

The next question would be if I could get you to change your mind. 

If and when the situation changes my mind will change as well.

[glunn]

 

If I were in charge of administration of this plan at this time here is what I would require.

All players, coaches and staff to be involved (this includes everyone from every team from clubhouse attendants to bus drivers to food preparation workers; EVERYONE) would travel to their workplaces and be isolated from everyone else for two weeks. Repeat: no one else comes in. Ever. At the end of that two-week period everyone would be tested. If there are no positive tests then the plan can proceed, and everyone involved would have contact with no one outside the tested cohort until the risk to the public has fallen to a reasonable level. If anyone leaves and wishes to return another two weeks of isolation followed by a test would be needed.

This is a logistical nightmare. Lots of sanitizing would be required. Security at residences, training facilities, and stadiums would have to be extremely tight. There would be no contact with media unless each member was also part of the original tested cohort. And there's also the matter of having available the many thousands of tests that would be required. The last I heard was there weren't enough even for the general public.

In short, the effort and resources required to give us a spectator sport, an activity that is VERY low on the essential-services spectrum, would be much better placed on higher priority activities, such as producing protective gear for essential services and medical equipment for critically ill people. I'm sorry if anyone disagrees, but that's just the way I think it is and I think it's selfish and borderline unpatriotic to seriously consider such a plan.

I agree in general with your plan for keeping this safe. I disagree  about the allocation of resources. I think that there are lots of people out of work who will not be producing protective gear or medical equipment who would jump at the opportunity to be part of this and get salaries.

[The Wise One]

 

I thought it would go without saying, but I guess it doesn't, that those in need of urgent medical care should of course always be first priority.

I think the discussion that HBD and I have been having (or maybe monopolizing) was which jobs should have higher priority for testing than professional athletes.

I thought it would go without a second go, what is the point of discussing which jobs should prioritized when there is nothing to test them with? When the symptomatic can't get tested, when the exposed can't get tested, the banter about which profession first to me is just  weird, so I asked why are you bothering. Rich people get tested. That is a different discussion. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I thought it would go without a second go, what is the point of discussing which jobs should prioritized when there is nothing to test them with? When the symptomatic can't get tested, when the exposed can't get tested, the banter about which profession first to me is just  weird, so I asked why are you bothering. Rich people get tested. That is a different discussion.

 

Companies are ramping up production on test kits.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Companies are ramping up production on test kits.

sure, but just like vaccines and PPE, it takes years to get to the scale needed, and the kits are only part of the equation. Labs to process them too.

 

We’re not talking about a few million tests once, we’re talking hundreds of millions if not billions of people world wide getting tested multiple times a year for probably a couple years.

 

Covid-19 has mutated into 5 or 6 strains in 4 or 5 months. Flu Vaccines take 18 months to scale up on existing technology and new technology vaccines typically require 5-7 years to scale up. By the time a vaccine will be scaled to the masses even on the 18 month timeline, it will already be 3 generations late.

 

My prediction is “Test and sequester” will be a new normal for the foreseeable future.

[glunn]

I predict that once there is widespread testing for antibodies, there will be pressure for the people with antibodies to go back to normal lives, with restrictions designed to minimize spreading the virus with their hands.

[Nine of twelve]

 

I predict that once there is widespread testing for antibodies, there will be pressure for the people with antibodies to go back to normal lives, with restrictions designed to minimize spreading the virus with their hands.

The potential problem with that is we don't know yet whether antibodies to the current iteration of the virus will protect against the inevitable mutations. Viruses can evolve pretty quickly and there's no guarantee that surviving this version will protect one against a different form. The same is true for a vaccine. This is why effective vaccines against flu and against HIV and against others haven't emerged. Yes, flu shots help, but there are many flu viruses and they continue to mutate so the annual shot represents epidemiologists' best guess for the viruses most likely to be problematic each year.

[Trov]

I believe the MLB plan is viable, but may not be prudent.  Really, it would be based on the understanding how locked down these facilities would be.  I mean, if you can test each person prior to entering, not getting into testing debate at this point, and you can find everyone in the facilities are no infected at all.  Then once they are in the facilities, you can very much control the flow of who or what goes in and out.  

 

The question is, would the players, managrs, umpires and broadcast people be willing to do it.  No one would be able to leave, unless there is a fast and accurate test that could be used.  Then if they do they cannot return until further tests done.  All needed supplies would need to be sterilized before entering the facilities. 

 

That is really only way to make certain it would be safe, else, we wait until the medical experts feel we are in a situation that we can handle people getting sick from it.  Having it is not a death sentence, but the way it can spread over loads the medical field and they cannot properly treat the people that get the high level symptoms.

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Take it FWIW. We’re all just guessing.