Thor done for the year

[old nurse]

The trades that you did not make

http://www.startribune.com/mets-star-noah-syndergaard-to-have-tommy-john-surgery/569067112/

[ewen21]

Looks like I was WRONG to suggest we trade Buxton for Syndergaard.  Then again, Buxton has not exactly been a monument to consistency and health.

[DocBauer]

IMHO, he reminds me of Archer to this point in his career. Not directly but similar. He's out up some nice numbers, some great SO numbers and some amazing moments, but never quite put it all together yet. Injuries have been a factor, of course. Now don't get me wrong, he is a tantalizing arm still filled with potential and I would have loved to have him in a Twins uniform for him to reach his full potential!

 

I think 2019 may have been his best season to date. And he's young enough to recover from this and still have an amazing career. And I wish him all the best in his recovery back to 100%! But it does give you a quick pause to reflect his injury doesn't reflect on the Twins.

[h2oface]

Don't miss Heezy1323's timely article on the TJ surgery.....  

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/1036/entry-11878-ucl-reconstruction-techniques/

[rdehring]

Another example, along with Sale, why it doesn't make sense to either sign or give up too much in a trade for top pitchers.  Hundreds of millions of dollars over 7-8 years can kill any team other than the chosen few.  Trading multiple top player/prospects can do the same.

 

Really like what the Twins have done to set their pitching staff for 2020.  Now should Berrios take another baby step, lets get him signed for the next 5 or 6 years at reasonable dollars.

[ewen21]

 

Another example, along with Sale, why it doesn't make sense to either sign or give up too much in a trade for top pitchers.  Hundreds of millions of dollars over 7-8 years can kill any team other than the chosen few.  

If you want to win now and need to land "an ace" via a trade then it will cost 2 of your top 3 prospects.  It really is that simple for the Twins

[Shaitan]

 

Another example, along with Sale, why it doesn't make sense to either sign or give up too much in a trade for top pitchers.  Hundreds of millions of dollars over 7-8 years can kill any team other than the chosen few.  Trading multiple top player/prospects can do the same.

 

Really like what the Twins have done to set their pitching staff for 2020.  Now should Berrios take another baby step, lets get him signed for the next 5 or 6 years at reasonable dollars.

 

If Cole is injured, no team other the Yankees could afford that financial loss.

 

That said, it really is a fine line. What is "too much"? That's in the eye of the beholder, as you suggest by mentioning a Berrios extension. But why would Berrios sign a "reasonable" extension when he knows he can break the bank in FA?

 

I agree that it's unfeasible for the Twins to ever give a long-term (5 years+) contract to a FA pitcher because of the risk. But hopefully something will change in insurance policies or revenue sharing that somehow changes that. It's probably wishful thinking. But for now the Twins have to focus on developing pitchers, which isn't a bad strategy at all. For every Verlander and Scherzer, there are more Archers and Kazmirs and Lirianos who peak for 2-3 seasons and fade (or suffer injuries).

[gil4]

 

 But why would Berrios sign a "reasonable" extension when he knows he can break the bank in FA?

Because he's one tweak in his elbow away from not breaking the bank, and he's not a free agent for three years. Every pitcher is a ticking time bomb.

It's like that Deal or No Deal game show. One big number is on the board, but there area lot of little numbers too. Do you want to mitigate the risk and take what the banker is offering?  The teams usually offer a sweeter deal than the game show does.

[rdehring]

 

If you want to win now and need to land "an ace" via a trade then it will cost 2 of your top 3 prospects.  It really is that simple for the Twins

And count me among those who believe that is too much for this franchise to pay.  Although Buxton also misses too many games, think where we would be had they traded him and another top prospect to the Mets for Syndergaard?

 

Means they need to find another way to win.  Personally, hoping like heck they have found it with a more than potent lineup and a very deep pitching staff.  All they need is one of those guys from Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeta or Hill to step up and be that stopper the last half of the season and the playoffs.

[tony&rodney]

Don't forget (as long as we are being positive) - here come the young guns: Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe, Jordan Balazovik, Jhoan Duran, Blayne Enlow, Edwar Colina, Matt Canterino ... 

We can only hope, right?

Besides, at this point it's "Who's Thor?"

[ewen21]

 

And count me among those who believe that is too much for this franchise to pay.  Although Buxton also misses too many games, think where we would be had they traded him and another top prospect to the Mets for Syndergaard?

 

Means they need to find another way to win.  Personally, hoping like heck they have found it with a more than potent lineup and a very deep pitching staff.  All they need is one of those guys from Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeta or Hill to step up and be that stopper the last half of the season and the playoffs.

If the underlined is a default position then I have a problem with it.

 

When a team is relatively young and very close, why are we worried about the farm?  Why not take the risk and go for it?  It is far more risky going the free agent route to get top quality (and throwing hundreds of millions away).

 

I don't disagree with one bit of the second paragraph. I just don't like the hardline "we can't mortgage the future" junk.  Sounds like Terry Ryan redux.

[PDX Twin]

 

Besides, at this point it's "Who's Thor?"

 

Is that a response to "knock knock"?

[Tomj14]

 

 Although Buxton also misses too many games, think where we would be had they traded him and another top prospect to the Mets for Syndergaard?

 

 

Without trade the Twins got swept by the Yanks, if they would have traded for him, no one knows what would have happened.
 

[ewen21]

 

Without trade the Twins got swept by the Yanks, if they would have traded for him, no one knows what would have happened.
 

These people are essentially saying is you don't ever trade prospects to get pitching.  Until the statement I responded to gets amended or re-explained that seems to be the default stance for a lot of folks here.  I don't get it.  When you have a team with plenty of young players in the nucleus and you are a playoff contender, why are we concerned about the guys in the low minors?  Use them as assets to help out the big club in order to push us over the hump.  This team has NEVER had the sense or the guts to try it and that might just be a reason why this team has not been taken seriously in the playoffs.  It's like they play to get to the playoffs and ...…………..game over, we did it!

[Tomj14]

 

These people are essentially saying is you don't ever trade prospects to get pitching.  Until the statement I responded to gets amended or re-explained that seems to be the default stance for a lot of folks here.  I don't get it.  When you have a team with plenty of young players in the nucleus and you are a playoff contender, why are we concerned about the guys in the low minors?  Use them as assets to help out the big club in order to push us over the hump.  This team has NEVER had the sense or the guts to try it and that might just be a reason why this team has not been taken seriously in the playoffs.  It's like they play to get to the playoffs and ...…………..game over, we did it!

completely agree with everything you said. Maybe the Twins trade for Thor, they win game one against the Yanks, and that changes the hitters mindsets and they go on to beat the Yanks and possibly the next series as well, heck maybe if that drives them to the World Series. I mean Thor, Berrios and Odo could have done that right?

and the Twins would be sitting here with their star pitcher having TJ surgery but also a championship.

Or they trade for Thor and still get swept.

As of right now I would still be happier if they traded for Thor and they got swept and he has TJ, then not have traded for anybody and got swept.

 

I will add that Gov Walz yesterday said that the peak of the virus will hit the state of MN in about 11 weeks (which is June) and that stadiums could be set up as hospitals, meaning baseball isn't starting anytime soon, so they basically Thor won't really be missing much actual baseball.

[The Wise One]

 

Without trade the Twins got swept by the Yanks, if they would have traded for him, no one knows what would have happened.
 

Who knows?  The last 4 games he pitched last year he was giving up 4 runs a game. He was cooked. The likely outcome was no different than the actual one. Syndergaard was pitching as damaged goods. No amount of romanticism is going to change that.

[Tomj14]

 

 No amount of romanticism is going to change that.

So people are allowed to romanticize about prospects and how they will save the future, but you can't about a guy that in his last start pitched 7 innings gave up 5 hits, walked 2, struck out 9 and gave up 3 runs to a Braves team, got it.

My whole point above was we have no idea what the outcome of trading for Thor was last year, but we do know the outcome for not trading for him, that was getting swept in the 1st round.

if he pitches game one somewhere near his last start, that is a whole new game, but then again Rocco pulls him after 4 like he did with Berrios the outcome could be the same.  if he starts game two and pitches like he did in the 4 starts prior to he last one the twins are still in that game instead of giving 8 runs up by the end of third.

[Tomj14]

 

 

So people are allowed to romanticize about prospects and how they will save the future, but you can't about a guy that in his last start pitched 7 innings gave up 5 hits, walked 2, struck out 9 and gave up 3 runs to a Braves team, got it.

My whole point above was we have no idea what the outcome of trading for Thor was last year, but we do know the outcome for not trading for him, that was getting swept in the 1st round.

if he pitches game one somewhere near his last start, that is a whole new game, but then again Rocco pulls him after 4 like he did with Berrios the outcome could be the same.  if he starts game two and pitches like he did in the 4 starts prior to he last one the twins are still in that game instead of giving 8 runs up by the end of third.

 

Even a cooked Thor could have been better than what happened, but then again maybe not.

[ewen21]

It doesn't make sense to stockpile prospects with no intention of using them to improve the current roster right now.  I could understand the sentiment five or six years ago, but we have a team that is young and contending.  These GMs have proven that they will go out and augment the still young major league talent we have with proven veterans.

 

I like Kiriloff and Lewis, but for heaven's sake....they are 20 and 21.  We have:

Buxton, 26

Sano, 26

Rosario, 28

Arraez, 22

Kepler, 27

Polanco, 26

 

They (Kirilioff and Lewis) are several years away and they are blocked anyway.  We'd need to move one of those guys to make room for them so they can apprentice at the major league level.  That isn't smart to me.

 

What are we going to do?  Let the players above sink or swim or are we going to attempt to improve our pitching by using our assets in the minors?  The free agent option is too stupid for us if we are meaning to get an ace.  In what reality are we signing a top of the line guy to a giant multi-year deal?  It is a fools errand.

 

I am so sick and tired of pretending our prospects are off limits.  This is Terry Ryan stupidity.  Other teams deal away their top prospects to help the current roster and some of them go all the way.  We can't even win a game in the playoffs.  Not a damn game.

[ewen21]

 

So people are allowed to romanticize about prospects and how they will save the future, but you can't about a guy that in his last start pitched 7 innings gave up 5 hits, walked 2, struck out 9 and gave up 3 runs to a Braves team, got it.

My whole point above was we have no idea what the outcome of trading for Thor was last year, but we do know the outcome for not trading for him, that was getting swept in the 1st round.

if he pitches game one somewhere near his last start, that is a whole new game, but then again Rocco pulls him after 4 like he did with Berrios the outcome could be the same.  if he starts game two and pitches like he did in the 4 starts prior to he last one the twins are still in that game instead of giving 8 runs up by the end of third.

I hate to say it, but the underlined part.....

When Berrios was taken out he was getting bro-hugs in the dugout as if he did his job. That mentality is never going to translate into winning in the playoffs.

 

[Trov]

 

If you want to win now and need to land "an ace" via a trade then it will cost 2 of your top 3 prospects.  It really is that simple for the Twins

"an ace" does not guarantee a world series.  When we were making playoffs each year with Johan Santana on our team how many post season series did we win, let alone world series?  Sure an ace can help the odds, but it does not mean we will win.  Look at Royals last big run, how many ace pitchers did they have?  They had some top bullpen guys but no ace starters.  Having good pitching is important and I would take that over good offense if I had to choose, but point I am making is dumping all top prospects for 1 year of increasing chances by a few percent, in my opinion, is not worth the many years of 100 loss seasons we will have.  We can win without another top line starter, sure not as high of chance, but is it worth giving up all minor league talent?  I think not.  

[ewen21]

 

"an ace" does not guarantee a world series.  When we were making playoffs each year with Johan Santana on our team how many post season series did we win, let alone world series?  Sure an ace can help the odds, but it does not mean we will win.  Look at Royals last big run, how many ace pitchers did they have?  They had some top bullpen guys but no ace starters.  Having good pitching is important and I would take that over good offense if I had to choose, but point I am making is dumping all top prospects for 1 year of increasing chances by a few percent, in my opinion, is not worth the many years of 100 loss seasons we will have.  We can win without another top line starter, sure not as high of chance, but is it worth giving up all minor league talent?  I think not.  

I argued that point a lot a few months ago when this place was blowing up because we wouldn't sign one to a multiyear deal.

 

HOWEVER, if the situation arises where we have a very strong team that can get a young arm that is under team control for a few years you go for it.  I would rather have the pitching equivalent of Kepler or Polanco.  Same age arms to compliment the nucleus. If it take Royce Lewis and Kiriloff to do it I am not sure I would reject it as a default.  The Astros were willing to do it to get Cole.

[Nine of twelve]

 

These people are essentially saying is you don't ever trade prospects to get pitching.

No GM rules out anything when it comes to making a trade. It always comes down to whether you feel that what you receive makes it worth giving what you give. So in this case it depends on which prospects and which pitching.

[The Wise One]

 

So people are allowed to romanticize about prospects and how they will save the future, but you can't about a guy that in his last start pitched 7 innings gave up 5 hits, walked 2, struck out 9 and gave up 3 runs to a Braves team, got it.

My whole point above was we have no idea what the outcome of trading for Thor was last year, but we do know the outcome for not trading for him, that was getting swept in the 1st round.

if he pitches game one somewhere near his last start, that is a whole new game, but then again Rocco pulls him after 4 like he did with Berrios the outcome could be the same.  if he starts game two and pitches like he did in the 4 starts prior to he last one the twins are still in that game instead of giving 8 runs up by the end of third.

If you bothered to check the score of Syndergaard's last game, why didn't you look at the previous games to that?   There is nothing to say that there would have been any different outcome of giving up 3-4 runs. That rest over the winter did nothing for his injury leads me to believe he spent most of September injured, hence the results with Syndergaard would have been the same as without him. UCL was shot.

 

In regards to prospects, I didn't say squat about them in this thread.  I have posted opinions on prospect ranking. There might be one or two people who even remember what I said better than I do. If I am going to point out the romanticism of thinking an injured pitcher  was going to make a difference, what might I post about prospects?

[Rosterman]

Good thing we didn't make that Buxton trader afterall!

[Tomj14]

 

If you bothered to check the score of Syndergaard's last game, why didn't you look at the previous games to that? 

Hmm, I said "if he starts game two and pitches like he did in the 4 starts prior to he last one the twins are still in that game instead of giving 8 runs up by the end of third."

5, 5 2/3, 5, 5 and 4 runs in all. Still better than what happened in game 2.

But thanks for assuming I only used stats that tells my story (like you did), when I did the exact opposite of that, it makes you look real good, congrats!

 

 

 

[puckstopper1]

 

No GM rules out anything when it comes to making a trade. It always comes down to whether you feel that what you receive makes it worth giving what you give. So in this case it depends on which prospects and which pitching.

 

Spot on Nine

 

An example is Graterol and Raley for Maeda...

[jkcarew]

Had the surgery yesterday in Florida. Pretty questionable. Hard to scream about the shortage of masks and ventilators when you're making the choice to give a baseball player Tommy John. Technically (and allegedly) the surgery met the criteria for essential, however plenty of sources/experts are dubious. Apparently, it's the physicians decision (according to reports I've read)...and surgery was performed by a physician that has postponed many other surgeries. Really, really, bad look, IMO.

[The Wise One]

 

Hmm, I said "if he starts game two and pitches like he did in the 4 starts prior to he last one the twins are still in that game instead of giving 8 runs up by the end of third."

5, 5 2/3, 5, 5 and 4 runs in all. Still better than what happened in game 2.

But thanks for assuming I only used stats that tells my story (like you did), when I did the exact opposite of that, it makes you look real good, congrats!

"So people are allowed to romanticize about prospects and how they will save the future, but you can't about a guy that in his last start pitched 7 innings gave up 5 hits, walked 2, struck out 9 and gave up 3 runs to a Braves team, got it."

That was you last post and very ironically the one I was responding to.  But in your new argument of hypothetical romantic notions, and Syndergaard as not your ace but number 2 pitcher,  how is a 4-2 loss any different than any other loss.

[ewen21]

 

"So people are allowed to romanticize about prospects and how they will save the future, but you can't about a guy that in his last start pitched 7 innings gave up 5 hits, walked 2, struck out 9 and gave up 3 runs to a Braves team, got it."

That was you last post and very ironically the one I was responding to.  But in your new argument of hypothetical romantic notions, and Syndergaard as not your ace but number 2 pitcher,  how is a 4-2 loss any different than any other loss.

How is having Royce Lewis in high A ball helping us win a game in the playoffs?

 

And....

How do we boost our staff in season when can use another arm during the stretch run?

 

I do not expect us to go for it every single year, but we are in that window of a couple of years right now where we should.