The 2019 Twins Bullpen Could Have Been Historic

[Matt Braun]

Relievers are probably the least predictable players in all of baseball. It’s incredibly common for a reliever to drastically improve from one season to the next and sometimes it happens from just one month to the next. Because of this, relievers are often the players who most “got away” from a team by finding success with another squad. The Twins are no different.The 2019 Twins had a great bullpen that took a little time to sort out. Once pitchers like Cody Stashak and Zack Littell took over and replaced the old guard, the pen became one of the best in all of baseball. Well, until the gas ran out in the postseason, but it’s best to forget such things. In the end, the Twins finished the season third in all of baseball in bullpen fWAR, yet there are a few ex-players they could have held on to in order to up that ranking. Let’s start with the most realistic option:

 

Ryan Pressly

 

Ryan Pressly had shown flashes of brilliance over his Twins career but never really put it together for an extended period of time. He had the tools to do so as he was armed with a high-spin curveball and a big velocity heater. Ultimately, the Twins decided to deal him to the Astros at the deadline in 2018 in a move that most Twins fans still shake their head at. Pressly predictably became a destroyer of worlds as his walk rate dropped, his strikeout rate skyrocketed, and his ERA with Houston plummeted into the earth’s crust.

 

Pressly would have been a great setup man for Taylor Rogers and would have eased the pressure Rogers faced early in the season when he had to clean up every mess that the other relievers liked to get in. Now, let’s move on to the most painful option:

 

Nick Anderson

 

Why the Twins never gave Anderson a shot at the end of 2018 will continue to be one of the great mysteries of the world. It’s up there with where Old Zealand is and how the hell calculus works. Anyways, Anderson finally got his shot with the Marlins in 2019 and started punching out people at a rate that would make Mike Tyson blush. He was so effective that the Rays gave up a top 100 prospect in order to get him at the trade deadline. Pro tip: if a Rays want a pitcher, then that pitcher is probably pretty damn good.

 

Anderson finished 2019 with a cartoonish K% of 41.7 that was only topped by Josh Hader. Anderson would have been an absolutely phenomenal addition to the now quad-headed monster of Rogers/Pressly/Anderson/Tyler Duffey. It’s painful to think that all the Twins had to do was give him a call in September but that mistake can’t be changed now. On to the last and strangest option:

 

Liam Hendriks

 

LIAM HENDRIKS??? ARE YOU KIDDING ME? When pitchers like Hendriks come all the way back around to start melting faces, all someone can do is laugh. Pop quiz: Who led all of baseball in reliever fWAR in 2019? Pencils down. It was Hendriks. Yes, the ex-soft-tossing rando for the Twins finally put it all together in 2019 and was the best reliever in baseball. He was boosted by a fastball that now averaged **checks notes** 96.5 MPH and a slider that almost matched his Twins’ fastball velocity (88.6 to 90.0).

 

Hendriks is the most unrealistic option in this scenario as probably no one saw him becoming this good after leaving the Twins. Hendriks remains an example that every single MLB player has an incredible amount of ability but some just need a few tweaks in order to fully realize that potential. Hendriks would have been the closer for the Twins but the team also could have rotated their top five potential relievers in any relief role and everything would have worked out. Now, let’s have some fun with math to end this out.

 

Just taking the top five Twins relievers in this scenario (Hendriks, Rogers, Anderson, Pressly, Duffey) would give you 10.8 fWAR in 2019. That would have easily crushed the best bullpen in MLB in 2019 which belonged to the Rays (7.7 to 10.8) Expanding the list to the top eight potential Twins relievers would add Trevor May, Ryne Harper, and Zack Littell. This boosts the Twins’ total to 13.2 fWAR. The best team bullpen since 2000 was the 2003 Dodgers who were fueled by Eric Gagne’s balanced breakfasts. Their total was a meager 9.6 fWAR.

 

There isn’t much more to this than the fact that baseball is full of “what if?” questions. There’re an incalculable amount of missed connections like this, but that’s what makes the sport fun. The Giants likely are still probably kicking themselves over giving up Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano for basically nothing. Just don’t get too upset about losing these players, it happens to every team.

 

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[howieramone2]

We're still going to win the Pressly trade and Nick Anderson is a one hit wonder until he isn't.

[Doctor Gast]

In the middle our 2019 run, our BP folded which effected our fragile starting rotation. If we had those guys through out the season, we could have gone a long ways in the PS; w/ a fresh rotation 

[howieramone2]

IMHO our bullpen had nothing to do with it. Our star power was hobbled and our starting pitching did not match up well. We will be ready for the Yankees this time.

[Trov]

It boggles my mind to imagine how in perfect world keeping those three and they developing the way they did.  Pressly was only one that was close to what he was when Twins got rid of him.  Hendricks as mentioned had to of changed things to develop way he did, assuming it is all natural, he was out of Twins organization well before the advanced thinking FO we have now.  Looking at spin rate, pitching up in zone, and all those new found ways to get guys out was VooDoo to Gardy and company.  Anderson, until he shows he was not a flash in a pan it was just great story for him, much like Dobnic for us.

[saviking]

But, what if?  j/k

[DocBauer]

At this point, I'd leave Hendricks out of the equation simply because he's been gone so long.

 

In the long run, the Twins may win the Pressly deal, or at least break even. But I never liked the deal then as I felt the Twins would contend in 2019. I know some will jump on me for this, but as it turned out, I don't know you can say they really missed him with the way Duffey and May got it together. But yeah, I would have liked to have him.

 

Anderson I don't get. Any maybe he will end up a 1yr wonder. I there was something about him they didn't like or didn't see. Which seems all the more strange when you remember they've kept Reed despite inconsistent results and no ML time as of yet.

 

All in all, I really like where the pen is now and am very intrigued by a couple arms that seem close.

[jimbo92107]

This is a good reason always to stock your pen with at least a couple fringy starters from the minors. Same guys that are just barely getting by as a starter might turn out to be a star as a reliever. Plus, you can run them out as sport starters. That worked pretty well in 2019.

 

Good times... sigh.