The Twins Have to Stay Aggressive on the First Pitch

[Matthew Trueblood]

One of the hallmarks of the Twins' record-setting offense in 2019 was the way they pounced on pitchers early. Doing that consistently in 2020, without getting swing-happy, will be a new challenge.Last season, big-league teams had the highest aggregate OPS on record, in plate appearances in which they swung at the first pitch. The league also swung at the first pitch more often, on average, than it had in any season since 2001. The Twins rode that rising tide, and even helped steer it: no American League club swung as often on the first pitch as did Minnesota. They also had an impressive .520 collective slugging percentage in those plate appearances, because the team’s excellent power paired perfectly with the aeroball. Now, they face the challenge of remaining on the attack in 2020, without becoming overly anxious.

 

It hasn’t been the Twins’ custom to swing at the first pitch at anything like their 2019 rate. Until the end of 2018, of course, the team’s offensive identity could best be embodied by Joe Mauer, whose patience (and especially, whose reluctance to ambush the first pitch) was his defining characteristic. That didn’t always mean that the rest of the team took Mauer’s mentality into the box with them, but he was the heartbeat of the offense for well over a decade, and thus, the team came to resemble him in certain key tendencies.

 

It wasn’t until 2013 that the Twins, having experienced two nightmarish seasons at the tail end of their run of AL Central success in the 2000s, started to hold hitter back from hacking at the first pitch, but once they did so, they did it firmly. I wrote about their apparently hard take signals on first pitches for Baseball Prospectus in 2015. They were embracing the OBP-focused mindset of the Moneyball Athletics, but they were a decade too late to the party.

 

Because it would take them another several years to modernize their front office, however, and because they similarly lagged in progressive thinking in the dugout, and because of Mauer’s veteran influence, the team remained one of the least aggressive on the first pitch even after the rest of the league started to attack more often. Sometimes, taking too long to make one change means having to pivot more quickly than others when the trend lines reverse themselves, and it creates a snowball effect.

 

With Rocco Baldelli on the top step and Mauer in retirement, the 2019 Twins became a team past whom you couldn’t hope to sneak an early strike. While hitters have been slow in making the adjustment to swing more early in counts, pitchers have been even slower to stop throwing predictable fastballs on the first pitch, and that means it’s still a good idea to be more aggressive on the first pitch than most hitters are. Even hitters who are otherwise disciplined are learning to hunt hittable strikes where they’re most abundant, at the front ends of plate appearances. Max Kepler swung at 40.5 percent of first pitches last year, against a league average still hovering just south of 29 percent.

 

Still, much of the Twins’ first-pitch damage came from hitters who will be either wearing other uniforms or playing reduced roles whenever the 2020 season begins. Jonathan Schoop and Eddie Rosario paced the team. Mitch Garver and Luis Arráez each took the first pitch over 80 percent of the time, making them two of the most selective early-count hitters in the league. Every hitter’s approach needs to be neatly tailored to their skill set, and Kepler, Arráez, and Garver nicely demonstrate the flexibility of the Twins’ individual plans for their hitters these days. They don’t need to make major adjustments in the way they approach the first pitch.

 

At a team level, though, as they get more disciplined and patient hitters, the Twins will need to remain opportunistic, forcing pitchers to handle them carefully from the moment they enter the batter’s box. That responsibility falls mostly to Baldelli, along with Edgar Varela and Rudy Hernández. It’s not an easy balance to strike, but the team demonstrated its ability to find it last year.

 

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[Platoon]

What happened to taking pitches? Working the count? Getting into the other teams bullpen? That was the "Bible" here for years. Comments about hitting the first good fast ball you saw were often dismissed as an out of control hitter, not helping the team. Somedays I think the game hasn’t changed at all, simply the nomenclature and the opportunities to elucidate on them, mine included.

[Paul]

On the first pitch most good hitters who recognize the pitch early (this most definitely includes Mauer) and hitters who try to outguess the pitcher, both pick a zone and/or the type of pitch. If they're right it gives them an advantage that surpasses the advantage that Houston was recently experiencing. This is what you see.  Here's an anecdote to illustrate. Back in the dome Verlander threw a first pitch 98 MPH fastball, out of the zone, up and in to Mauer.  Mauer turned on it and deposited it in the upper deck for a HR. Verlander said after the game that he threw the pitch exactly where he wanted and no other batter could have done what Joe did with that pitch. Obviously Joe was looking there for that pitch.  Look up Mauer"s stats for first pitches he swung at. They're off the charts good.

 

But to say because first pitch swings are so productive players should swing at them more often is misguided.

[Mr. Brooks]

 

 

But to say because first pitch swings are so productive players should swing at them more often is misguided.

I don't think that's what the writer is saying.

 

He specifically writes this:

 

"Every hitter’s approach needs to be neatly tailored to their skill set, and Kepler, Arráez, and Garver nicely demonstrate the flexibility of the Twins’ individual plans for their hitters these days. They don’t need to make major adjustments in the way they approach the first pitch."

 

 

Aggressive does not mean they have to swing. It just means they should be ready to swing if they get a good pitch.

[bobs]

It's cloudy, rainy and gloomy today in west central Minnesota.Devastated by the loss of the promise of baseball.I.MISS.BASEBALL!  

About ready to dig out the VHS tapes of the 1991 WS!

[Trov]

To me, the correct approach is what Ted Williams said many years ago when asked the key to hitting.  He famously said, "pick a good pitch to hit and don't miss it."  Sounds simple, but the way I break it down is this.   Go up with a plan, whatever it is, and stick with it.  Hopefully you can be good enough to foul off pitches that are borderline.  Then you should get a pitch you like.

 

Hitters that are good at hitting fastballs will want to hit first pitch more often, as fastballs on first pitch are most common, unless pitcher is "pitching backwards" However, to go further, do not just swing because you have timing right, you should also look a zone.  If it is not where you want, okay may be a strike may not.  If it is fine you have two more, if it is a ball great.  

 

Mitch Garver talked about his plan at the plate last year.  It was to look middle and swing at those pitches and take any borderline ones.  So unless first pitch was middle he would take.  He would even take borderline with 2 strikes.  Sure sometimes he got rang up, but in his mind he could not hit those pitches well, so why do the pitcher a favor, make the umpire make the call. 

 

Other players have different approach where they will fight off those pitches.  Either way they have a plan.  Sure, Eddie his plan is swing at anything and everything, but that is his plan.  I have no issue players swinging first pitch or not, as long as they have a plan for the at bat. 

 

Take Buxton for example, when he is struggling, or maybe even when doing well, I feel he never thinks out his at-bats.  I have said many times when he walks up to plate, here comes slider off the plate, and he swings, then again and he swings, then again and he swings.  Out on three straight chases, because the book on him is slider away.  So his plan should be, look inside or at least middle.  Anything away, just leave it, if it is a fast ball that clips corner good on the pitcher, but he has better odds taking outside first pitch than he does to swing at it.