Full Minnesota Twins 2020 Season Simulation: April

[Cooper Carlson]

Do you miss baseball? Of course you do. Are you wondering how the Twins would have done in a full season? Of course you are! Luckily for you I am putting together a simulation of the 2020 season to see how the Twins would have done. Come check it out!As you all know, we almost certainly will not be getting 162 games of baseball this season but I wanted to see what would happen if we did. Luckily we have a sort of effective way of doing this on MLB the Show! I will be simulating an entire season and giving the CPU complete control over everything to see how the season would have potentially played out. There will be around seven to eight parts to this depending on how far into the playoffs the Twins go.

 

Today’s post will feature how the Twins did in March/April.

 

AL Central at the end of April:

• Twins: 23-8
• Indians: 22-11 (2.0 GB)
• White Sox (7.0 GB)
• Royals 14-17 (9.0 GB)
• Tigers 9-22 (14.0 GB)

Opening Day lineup with end of the month statistics:

• Arraez: .310/.376/.434 (.810), 2 HR, 15 RBI, 9.4 BB%, 0.7 WAR
• Polanco: .344/.438/.656 (1.094), 7 HR, 15 RBI, 1.9 WAR
• Cruz: .341/.407/.589 (.996), 8 HR, 23 RBI, 1.4 WAR
• Sano: .220/.321/.462 (.782), 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0.5 WAR
• Donaldson: .235/.350/.441 (.791), 4 HR, 11 RBI, 1.1 WAR
• Garver: .253/.283/.547 (.830), 9 HR, 16 RBI, 1.0 WAR
• Rosario: .284/.296/.461 (.757), 3 HR, 12 RBI, 0.2 WAR
• Kepler: .283/.421/.457 (.878), 3 HR, 9 RBI, 0.8 WAR
• Buxton: .260/.313/.385 (.697), 0.7 WAR

Bench Summary:

 

The four players on the bench to start the season were Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Avila, Ehire Adrianza, and Willians Astudillo. They are all playing about exactly as expected with limited at-bats. La Tortuga is hitting .279 with a couple of bombs.

 

Opening Day rotation with end of the month statistics:

• Jose Berrios: 5-1, 3.45 ERA, 9.00 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 0.7 WAR
• Kenta Maeda: 1-1, 3.32 ERA, 8.53 K/9, 1.42 BB/9, 1.0 WAR
• Jake Odorizzi: 2-1, 7.20 ERA, 8.64 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, -0.7 WAR
• Homer Bailey: 4-0, 1.93 ERA, 6.43 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 0.3 WAR
• Devin Smeltzer: 1-3, 7.96 ERA, 5.54 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, -0.5 WAR

Bullpen Summary:

 

The Opening Day bullpen was Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo, Randy Dobnak, Zack Littell, and Cody Gearrin. The productive pitchers were Rogers (0.86 WHIP), Trevor May (16.62 K/9), and Tyler Duffey (0.90 BB/9). The unproductive ones were Gearrin (2.00 WHIP), Dobnak (5,74 K/9), and Clippard (7.71 BB/9).

 

April summary for the Twins:

 

This was about as good of a month as anyone could have hoped for. They have the second best win% in baseball at .742 behind only the Cubs and Cleveland is in 3rd. The Twins were easily one of the best hitting teams in baseball, ranking 3rd in AVG, 4th in OBP, and 3rd in SLG. They are also 6th in home runs with 47. The leaders are Garver (9), Cruz (8), and Polanco (7). The pitching was around the middle with the Twins ranking 11th in ERA.

 

Around MLB: Division leaders

• ALC: Twins (23-8)
• ALW: Angels (18-12)
• ALE: Yankees (20-12)
• ALWC: Indians (22-11)
• NLC: Cubs (25-7)
• NLW: Dodgers (18-12)
• NLE: MARLINS!! (18-13)
• NLWC: Brewers (19-12)

League leaders:

• AVG AL/NL: LeMahieu (.381), Goldschmidt (.373)
• OBP AL/NL: J. Castro (.453), Hoskins (.476)
• SLG AL/NL: Bogaerts (.709), Schwarber (.791)
• HR AL/NL: F. Reyes (13), Schwarber (12)
• ERA AL/NL: K. Gibson (1.18 haha), Kershaw (0.99)
• SO AL/NL: Cole (71), Nola (54)

Any questions about what’s going on in the league so far? Leave a comment and I’ll be sure to answer whether it's about a certain player, team, or anything else! What are your thoughts on this series I am putting together?

 

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[DocBauer]

I guess I don't understand Smeltzer in the rotation vs Dobnak and no way Gearrin is in the pen. Confused on these points.

 

And while it's the game and not you, kinda freaked about the slow starts by Donaldson and Odorizzi.

 

Who wrote the program? A bunch of Cubs fans?

 

Fun stuff though!

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

I guess I don't understand Smeltzer in the rotation vs Dobnak and no way Gearrin is in the pen. Confused on these points.

And while it's the game and not you, kinda freaked about the slow starts by Donaldson and Odorizzi.

Who wrote the program? A bunch of Cubs fans?

Fun stuff though!

That's funny, I was feeling the same way when I saw Donaldson's line. I can vividly image the aging-curve pieces we'd be pumping out! Agree with your take on Smeltzer and Gearrin. I guess the computers weren't following spring training as closely as we were .

 

The article was really fun but seeing the results and stats makes me yearn for baseball even more. The simulated Twins better bring us a World Series!

[dbminn]

Fun! 

 

But... no highlights?

 

What is carrying the Marlins? Pitching?

[howieramone2]

Kyle Gibson looks like the next David Ortiz.

[Doctor Gast]

Very interesting. Just curious, what is this simulation based on?

[twinfan]

It's always fun to believe what might happen. I can see Arraez hitting about .280 and Buxton (if he even plays) hitting .225 (always a slow starter) and maybe Rosario with 6-7 home runs. Bailey at 4-0 seems a big stretch but Maeda could be 4-1. No way the Yankees are leading the East early with all those injuries and the Dodgers may be 22-5 but that's just me. I have picked the Cubs and Yankees to meet in the WS for now. 

My guess is the season will start on May 1 with a 148 game schedule. That makes the most sense to me. Early games may have no fans til June 1.

Let's just hope this Covid-19 is a one time thing and that no different strain comes up later. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I hate the Yankees. 

[Doctor Gast]

 

Very interesting. Just curious, what is this simulation based on?

Could it be what they had done last year at this time & what they did this ST?