Article: The Case For Trading Span

[John Bonnes]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1150-The-Case-For-Trading-Span

[Mike Sixel]

No brainer. You have to give up something to get something, and their only possible excess is outfielders.

[minn55441]

How shocked would we all be to see the Hammer traded instead?

 

I agree we have to trade value to get value. Are more teams looking for defense and a lead off hitter or power from a corner outfield position? I think it is obvious that we have more and better replacements for Spans skills, but what is more valued by the teams we will be potentially trading with?

 

Again, I want to see us trade our way into some quality pitching, however in my view it is more likely that Span will improve on his 2012 totals at the plate then Willingham. I feel that Span will continue to improve his numbers as he distances himself from his concussion. I think we just saw the best Willingham has to offer this past season. It still is a tough call when you take into account that we can not replace Willingham's power and the impact that it had last season when he batted between Mauer and Morneau.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree on Willingham, but I think most teams do also....

[Winston Smith]

We lost 99 and 96 games the last 2 seasons. Everyone should be on the table, a couple minor moves will not fix this team.

[Kwak]

I believe that Morneau will also be dealt. Starting pitching is a requirement--and the Twins need it! There are also plenty of other options for 1B besides Morneau.

[ThePuck]

Nice article, lot of good points, but I don't think Revere would improve our defense in CF over Span...I also don't believe the team will use the saved money after trading him, assuming there is any saved money, on pitching. We knocked 18M off the 2011 payroll for 2012 and didn't address pitching...

[ltwedt]

Yeah - well . . . so far TR has been sitting on his hands. I am at the point that I really don't care WHO - obviously someone(s) has to - but please, please, please - don't shock us all by once again making a trade that is based on someone who is coming off the dl, or just had TJ, or "used to be good and would make the front office look good if we could resurrect his career". Get someone that will actually help.

 

Oh - and please look at FA starting pitchers - there are some really good ones that can be had (Edwin Jackson comes to mind).

[BeefMaster]

One thing that makes me skittish about trading Span:

 

Usually, when fans suggest a player should be traded, it's because they don't like him. Span, on the other hand, is well-regarded and maybe even undervalued.

 

If you're going to trade an asset as valuable as Span, you need to make sure you're getting proper value in return for him. If they're looking at good-field-no-hit middle infielders or back-of-the-rotation starters, I'd just as soon hold onto him and deal Revere (who teams may value higher as a player on the rise, as much as I'd hate to see him go) or see if you can get someone to overvalue Morneau instead.

[mnfanforlife]

Nice article, lot of good points, but I don't think Revere would improve our defense in CF over Span...I also don't believe the team will use the saved money after trading him, assuming there is any saved money, on pitching. We knocked 18M off the 2011 payroll for 2012 and didn't address pitching...

 

Yes, the front office has not been savvy the last two off-seasons...but they still should trade Span and hopefully they will use the excess money on pitching unlike last year. I think Rever would serve admirably in CF replacing Span. He may not be as good as Span defensiely, but will definitely fill the lead-off hitter/CF role well for the MLB club. Revere may be the next guy traded as Hicks should be up by the end of 2013...unless the MLB is actually winning that is.

[mk]

Aquiring good starting pitching for 2013 and the future is priority #1, but I'm scared that Span's likely successor in CF and the lead-off spot has a career .319 OBP. I think that is the biggest case against trading Span.

[twinscowboysbulls]

The Twins should not be afraid to trade any major leaguers named Willingham, Morneau, Span, Parmelee.

[Dave T]

Why would any of Atlanta's top four starters be off-limits for Span? If we trade an above-average CF, we should get back an above-average pitcher. Don't be giving us your 6th or 7th starters.

[Brandon]

I think trading Span is a given too and he is one of my favorite Twins players. It makes too much sense and there are too many teams that could use him and 2 of them are near or at Tampa who could probably resign him to an extension once they have him.

 

I think at this point we are waiting for teams to shop around on both sides by feeling out the best proposals before making a decision and moving on them.

[70charger]

We lost 99 and 96 games the last 2 seasons. Everyone should be on the table, a couple minor moves will not fix this team.

 

I wouldn't worry about it. See, at that rate, in 32 years, the Twins will be undefeated. 2044 Twins, baby!

[Chris in Osaka]

The Rays are too smart to trade Shields for Span. I'm afraid that they will fleece the team out of a top prospect.

[Willihammer]

Aquiring good starting pitching for 2013 and the future is priority #1, but I'm scared that Span's likely successor in CF and the lead-off spot has a career .319 OBP. I think that is the biggest case against trading Span.

 

There is an easy fix to this. Due to Revere's extreme contact proficiency,it is more beneficial for him to simply stop swinging when he gets ahead in the count, and avoid terminating his at-bat prematurely by putting a ball in play. Specifically if he avoided swinging on all 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 counts, I believe he could raise his OBP .040 or .050 points or more overnight. I made some rough calculations to arrive at that conclusion here:

[jorgenswest]

I don't think there are many comps of trading an outfielder for a starting pitcher unless the outfielder is relatively better at his position or a starting pitching prospect is included.

 

Lots of teams lost a starting pitcher to free agency and are in the market for a pitcher. I fear they will have the prospects and depth to top the Twins offer of Span.

[Chris in Osaka]

Aquiring good starting pitching for 2013 and the future is priority #1, but I'm scared that Span's likely successor in CF and the lead-off spot has a career .319 OBP. I think that is the biggest case against trading Span.

 

There is an easy fix to this. Due to Revere's extreme contact proficiency,it is more beneficial for him to simply stop swinging when he gets ahead in the count, and avoid terminating his at-bat prematurely by putting a ball in play. Specifically if he avoided swinging on all 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 counts, I believe he could raise his OBP .040 or .050 points or more overnight. I made some rough calculations to arrive at that conclusion here:

 

How many such counts did he have? Since he has no power, I can't believe he was able to build too many such hitter-friendly counts.

[Kwak]

Aquiring good starting pitching for 2013 and the future is priority #1, but I'm scared that Span's likely successor in CF and the lead-off spot has a career .319 OBP. I think that is the biggest case against trading Span.

 

There is an easy fix to this. Due to Revere's extreme contact proficiency,it is more beneficial for him to simply stop swinging when he gets ahead in the count, and avoid terminating his at-bat prematurely by putting a ball in play. Specifically if he avoided swinging on all 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 counts, I believe he could raise his OBP .040 or .050 points or more overnight. I made some rough calculations to arrive at that conclusion here:

 

Except that he rakes (singles) on these counts and builds his Bavg significantly. Taking on these pitches would force him to get his hits with 2 strikes--a difficult task.

[Kwak]

I don't think there are many comps of trading an outfielder for a starting pitcher unless the outfielder is relatively better at his position or a starting pitching prospect is included.

 

Lots of teams lost a starting pitcher to free agency and are in the market for a pitcher. I fear they will have the prospects and depth to top the Twins offer of Span.

 

Apparently you are unaware of the previous trade with Tampa when A Twins SP wasn't adequate for an OF--which is true. OF play every game, pitchers one in five.

[Physics Guy]

I realize this isn't quite the same, but it relates. If you are trying to value OF vs P, look at the FA contracts signed by players at those positions the past 5-10 years. Without actually digging in and looking, my guess is many more pitchers have signed $50M contracts than OF. Doesn't that indicate that teams value SP over OF? That is why we can't get Shields for Span alone. Having Bourn and Upton on the FA market doesn't help Span's value, although he should be a cheaper option.

[Willihammer]

Aquiring good starting pitching for 2013 and the future is priority #1, but I'm scared that Span's likely successor in CF and the lead-off spot has a career .319 OBP. I think that is the biggest case against trading Span.

 

There is an easy fix to this. Due to Revere's extreme contact proficiency,it is more beneficial for him to simply stop swinging when he gets ahead in the count, and avoid terminating his at-bat prematurely by putting a ball in play. Specifically if he avoided swinging on all 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 counts, I believe he could raise his OBP .040 or .050 points or more overnight. I made some rough calculations to arrive at that conclusion here:

 

How many such counts did he have? Since he has no power, I can't believe he was able to build too many such hitter-friendly counts.

 

233 counts total in 1064 PAs. Would have been more if he hadn't swung 79 times (and put most of those balls into play). I will have to go through all the math again, but there are a lot of walks he's leaving on the table.

 

He does rake on 2-0 and 3-1 in terms of batting avg but I am convinced that after you account for the probabilities of strike and ball sequences, that Revere is actually having a slight negative effect on his OBP. And then you can further account for the hits he is not sacrificing due to him being still a very effective hitter in 2-1 and 3-2 (though less in 2-2). Again, I will go through the math which factors in his plate discipline and the percentage of non-swinging strikes he is actually seeing, and how these iterations would play out, and probably make another blog post to clarify this hypothesis.

[70charger]

Aquiring good starting pitching for 2013 and the future is priority #1, but I'm scared that Span's likely successor in CF and the lead-off spot has a career .319 OBP. I think that is the biggest case against trading Span.

 

There is an easy fix to this. Due to Revere's extreme contact proficiency,it is more beneficial for him to simply stop swinging when he gets ahead in the count, and avoid terminating his at-bat prematurely by putting a ball in play. Specifically if he avoided swinging on all 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 counts, I believe he could raise his OBP .040 or .050 points or more overnight. I made some rough calculations to arrive at that conclusion here:

 

How many such counts did he have? Since he has no power, I can't believe he was able to build too many such hitter-friendly counts.

 

233 counts total in 1064 PAs.

 

Impressive.

 

Just off the top of your head, how many 1-2 counts did Joe Mauer have in innings 3 and 4 in the months of May through July?

[Physics Guy]

OK, so I may have been wrong. A quick look (I may have missed a couple) on Cot's shows 11 OF and 9 SP signing $50M+ free agent contracts. There were however more SP signed to $50M extensions (8-4) - meaning they signed with current team before reaching FA. There just seems to be more team looking for SP than OF.

[kab21]

I don't think there are many comps of trading an outfielder for a starting pitcher unless the outfielder is relatively better at his position or a starting pitching prospect is included.

 

Lots of teams lost a starting pitcher to free agency and are in the market for a pitcher. I fear they will have the prospects and depth to top the Twins offer of Span.

I don't think Tampa is looking for a prospect led package. They are ready to compete now and they need offense. Imo the Twins match up better than any team aside from possibly Texas (Andrus).

[bdhenders]

OK, so I may have been wrong. A quick look (I may have missed a couple) on Cot's shows 11 OF and 9 SP signing $50M+ free agent contracts. There were however more SP signed to $50M extensions (8-4) - meaning they signed with current team before reaching FA. There just seems to be more team looking for SP than OF.

 

Keep in mind that teams need 5 SP, as opposed to only 3 OF. With more pitchers needed on a team, there are a lot more pitchers contracts given out and you are more likely to get a greater than $50M contract just by the sheer volume of contracts. I do, however, agree with your point that SP seems to have a higher value on average. Just look at some of Terry Ryan/Tom Kelly's comments. TK liked to say "You're only as good as your next day's starting pitcher." In Terry Ryan's interview in the offseason handbook, he said "you can't have enough pitching, ***** ******" Those superlatives I replaced with ***s were added by Terry for emphasis. So he's not shy about that point. I guess that emphatically states that pitching is highly regarded by our GM. That's why it's so frustrating that they didn't have any pitching this year. However, they do have the excuse of counting on some people that were either injured or didn't perform. This year, I hope they have learned from their mistakes.

 

I agree with someone earlier that said that if we trade Span we are giving away an above average OF, so we should get an above average pitcher in return. I hope the Twins stand firm with that. That is probably why we haven't seen a trade, yet. People are probably trying to get him for a 4th or 5th starter. I think it would be a shame if we don't at least get a 3rd or better. ML avg. ERA for starting pitchers was around 4 last year, so I would like to see a lower than 4 FIP for whomever we get.