How MLB’s Delayed Start Could Impact Minnesota’s Rotation

[Patrick Wozniak]

With the uncertainty surrounding both the start date and length of the MLB season comes plenty of questions as to how teams and players will be affected. Will players that were set to start the season on the IL have time to recover? And how will the MLB handle those serving suspensions? Today, we’ll specifically look into the Twins rotation, where both of the prior questions become relevant.We’ll break the rotation down into small pairings who share similar potential impacts based on the delay. All of the results would be magnified or altered depending on the length of the delay.

 

Avoiding the second-half breakdown – Jose Berrios/Kenta Maeda

 

“Breakdown” might be a bit hyperbolic, but both starters have had their struggles in the second half. By now Twins fans are well-versed in Jose Berrios’s annual-August slumps, and he has gone as far as to alter both his late season and offseason routines in an attempt to circumvent the late-season collapse. It may not matter. If the season is delayed long enough, Berrios needn’t worry about wearing down. Less innings could theoretically assist Berrios in maintaining his velocity throughout the season or even ramping it up a bit in the case of a significantly shortened season.

 

Kenta Maeda’s second-half splits aren’t quite as dramatic as Berrios’, but whether due to ineffectiveness or concerns about his durability, he was largely shifted to the bullpen for the late- and post-season while pitching for Los Angeles. Maeda has been vocal about his preference of staying in the starter’s role and the shortened season should all but guarantee it (although he was likely to remain a starter with the Twins regardless).

 

The reduced innings may help both starters to remain effective throughout the season, but I must admit I was looking forward to seeing if Berrios' altered routine would make a difference and how Maeda would hold up after a full season of starts (However, I’ll happily settle for baseball, period!)

 

Assisting the injury-prone – Rich Hill/Homer Bailey

 

 

The best-case scenario had Rich Hill joining the team in June, which still may or may not happen, but the shortened season means Hill is likely to pitch in a greater percentage of games. The Twins and Hill will want to ensure that he is ready to go, but the shorter the season gets, the more Minnesota may need Hill. Fewer games means less time for the best teams to separate themselves from the pack. A healthy Hill might be Minnesota’s best pitcher and a shortened season would make his impact all the more, well...impactful.

 

Unlike Hill, Homer Bailey will start the season in full health, but the injury-prone label fits Bailey like a glove. The 163.1 innings he threw last season were his most since 2013. That seems like the pinnacle of what we should expect in innings totals at this point in his career, so shortening the season a bit should be to his benefit.

 

Suspension uncertainty – Michael Pineda

 

The world is full of uncertainty right now and baseball is no exception. How MLB will handle players with suspensions remains to be seen. The most likely course would be to reduce the suspension lengths in proportion to the reduction of the season length. This would mean that Pineda would appear in the same percentage of overall games, but the actual amount of time from opening day to Pineda’s first start would be reduced. The reduced real-time length in addition to Hill’s return would most affect guys in the back of the rotation like Bailey and our next pitcher…

 

The fifth starter – Randy Dobnak

 

Based on the end of last season and the results from spring training, Randy Dobnak seems destined to grab the last spot in the rotation. The question will be for how long? The later the delay, the worse for Dobnak, as he would have less time to entrench himself into the rotation before the return of Hill and/or Pineda. It’s not inconceivable that he could out-pitch Bailey, but the veteran’s contract status may give Bailey a longer leash and at some point it becomes a numbers game. Six-man rotation anyone?

 

The Young Guns – Jhoan Duran/Jordan Balazovic

 

If you think hinting at a six-man rotation was ridiculous, you may want to skip this paragraph. A significantly shortened season would erase any innings-limit concerns. While this would be relevant for pitchers returning from injury, it could also apply to minor leaguers who normally would have reached an inning limit by the end of the minor league season. So theoretically, if a high-upside arm like Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic were to spend the majority of the minor league season (which would also have a significant delay in this scenario) dominating AA or even AAA hitters, they will not have reached an innings-limit and would be available if needed at the MLB level. Likely? Not at all. But as has been strikingly apparent of late, we’d be unwise to discount the unexpected.

 

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[IndianaTwin]

Is overlooking Odorizzi and Chacin intentional? 

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

Is overlooking Odorizzi and Chacin intentional? 

 

Yes. I was just trying to write about the starters who could be most impacted by the delay. I didn't really see anything with Odorizzi and I think Dobnak is in line to take the initial 5th starter spot over Chacin.

[rdehring]

Lets face reality.  We aren't going to have baseball much before June 1, maybe Memorial Day weekend.  Can Hill still be the dominant pitcher he was for the Dodgers?  If so, he could be ready within a few weeks of opening day.  Put him at the front of the rotation with Berrios and Jake and the Twins could have one heck of a staff.  NOTE: I am assuming Jake pitches as well as last year and Berrios takes another baby step forward towards becoming an ACE.

 

Lets not forget what the layoff and restart will do for Thorpe.  I understand management may be a bit disappointed in him, but they also seem to be most excited about his potential from the group of three.  

[PDX Twin]

 

Lets face reality.  We aren't going to have baseball much before June 1, maybe Memorial Day weekend.  

 

This seems almost absurdly optimistic from where I sit. I don't think we have any season at all and the impact may extend well into the fall, cutting into fall and winter sports next year.

[DocBauer]

Agreeing with you on Pineda and a reduced suspension. His penalty, as are all in this case, is based on a normal 162G season, or as in this case, spread out over a pair of 162G seasons. But percentage of games missed with a abbreviated 2020 skews things.

 

I hope the best for Hill. But I say again considering coming off surgery, his career "norm" of outstanding half seasons I still see him back and ready to go in July. That might be even more so considering the break happening here, as he rehab and ramps up.

 

Dobnak should still have the inside track on the #5 spot. I don't think that changes, for NOW. He seemed to be the deserving frontrunner, and he and everyone else has to stretch out and "re-compete" when activities finally commence.

[Mr. Brooks]

Agreeing with you on Pineda and a reduced suspension. His penalty, as are all in this case, is based on a normal 162G season, or as in this case, spread out over a pair of 162G seasons. But percentage of games missed with a abbreviated 2020 skews things.

 

I hope the best for Hill. But I say again considering coming off surgery, his career "norm" of outstanding half seasons I still see him back and ready to go in July. That might be even more so considering the break happening here, as he rehab and ramps up.

 

Dobnak should still have the inside track on the #5 spot. I don't think that changes, for NOW. He seemed to be the deserving frontrunner, and he and everyone else has to stretch out and "re-compete" when activities finally commence.

If MLB decided to stretch the season to 200 games, would you be in favor of retroactively lengthening Pineda's suspension?

[DocBauer]

If MLB decided to stretch the season to 200 games, would you be in favor of retroactively lengthening Pineda's suspension?

I don't really want to go down this rabbit hole again, but the answer would be no. A 200G season is a straw-man arguement at this point, and not reflective of my previous statements, nor those of the OP.

 

HOWEVER, should MLB, for whatever reason, suddenly change formats and play a 200G season, I'm sure the penalties for similar future transgressions would amount to 100G, or half the season. That penalty would cover either a season, or parts of 2 seasons.

 

Speaking hypothetically, should that change happen mid-penalty for a player, said player should not face additional time as his suspension was based on the corresponding season length at the time of "sentence". And this comes right back around to my thoughts and those in the OP; Pineda, in this case, could/should have his games missed in a shortened season adjusted to reflect the percentage of games missed, which was the original intent of the suspension.

 

If...and I sure hope this doesn't happen...baseball was closed down for the entire 2020 year and resumed in 2021 with a full slate, the arguement could be made that all penalties, Pineda's included carry out fully based on a new 162G season.