A Look at How Twins Daily’s Top-20 Prospects Performed This Spring

[Patrick Wozniak]

A lot has changed in these last few days. When I started writing this article spring training was going strong and the regular season was just around the corner. Now the remainder of spring training has been canceled, the start of the regular season delayed, and uncertainty reigns. While baseball is on hold, we’ll continue, shifting from the present continuous and into the past tense for today’s article.In general, we can probably all agree that spring training stats are next to useless. However, there are arguably two exceptions. In the case of back-end roster spots and position battles the results have relevance, and in the case of prospects, while the results aren’t paramount per se, they are at least interesting. Today, we’ll take a look at the Twins Daily’s top-20 prospects who made the big league camp and parse the results.

 

With both 40-man and non-roster invites, about half of the top-20 list appeared in spring training games. While the sample sizes are small and the big-league competition may have been rusty or focused specific aspects of their game rather than results, it is fun to see how young players perform against some variance of the best. Whenever the season starts, none of the group will be up with the Twins, but there were some strong performances. We’ll bust the prospects into tiers based on their rankings.

 

Baseball Reference attempts to quantify the quality of competition faced and I included it as the final number in the stat-lines as “OppQual.” The higher the number the better the quality of opponent faced.

 

Tier 1: The Top 5

 

#1 Royce Lewis – .200/.200/.480 – 25 AB, 5 H, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 0 BB, 7 SO – 7.5 OppQual

 

#2 Alex Kirilloff – .429/.455/.810 – 21 AB, 9 H, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 3 SO – 7.3 OppQual

 

#3 Trevor Larnach – .333/.467/.708 – 24 AB, 8 H, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, 5 BB, 3 SO – 6.8 OppQual

 

The baby-bomba squad combined for seven home runs! Royce Lewis used his added muscle to punish the ball, but a few walks would have looked nice next to his seven strikeouts (though he faced the strongest quality of opponent). Lewis also shined defensively where he played at short exclusively. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach’s spring training numbers do nothing to dispel the notion that they are near MLB-ready. Interestingly, Larnach only appeared in left field once, as he mainly served as a DH, while Kirilloff played in right, left, and made one appearance at first base. Both showed good pop and Larnach’s great plate discipline was on full display with five walks to just three strikeouts. Eddie Rosario’s neck must be getting sore from looking over his shoulder!

 

Tier 2: Prospects 6 – 10

 

#6 Jhoan Duran – 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO – 4.9 OppQual

 

#7 Ryan Jeffers – .067/.067/.067 – 15 AB, 1 H, 0 BB, 7 SO – 6.0 OppQual

 

#9 Brent Rooker – .316/.435/.368 – 19 AB, 6 H, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 SO – 6.6 OppQual

 

The beauty of small sample sizes is that we can use great numbers to fuel our optimism while conversely ignoring ugly numbers because…small sample size. Ryan Jeffers…small sample size. Besides, for a catcher the important thing is learning the pitchers and building rapport, not worrying about a .133 OPS! Jhoan Duran’s two innings don’t give us much to work with, but the three strikeouts are nice. He was in the first round of cuts and would presumably be stretching out in the minor league camp, had things not been put on hold. He’s on the 40-man and will begin the year as a starter in AA. He should stick as a starter but could also serve as a late-season bullpen call-up. Brent Rooker didn’t flex his power like the first-tier group, but it’s there, and the three walks look nice.

 

Tier 3: Prospects 11 – 15

 

#11 Lewis Thorpe – DNP

 

#12 Gilberto Celestino – .174/.208/.348 – 23 AB, 4 H, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 SO – 6.0 OppQual

 

I think it’s safe to say Lewis Thorpe’s spring training was a disappointment. Coming into camp he had at least some hope of grabbing the fifth rotation spot, but he missed valuable time attending to a personal matter in Australia and was quickly sent down upon returning. However, Thorpe shouldn’t despair, as he’ll only be a phone call away and could see Minnesota sooner than later.

 

Gilberto Celestino was also included in the first round of cuts but he managed to squeeze in a pretty impressive amount of playing time due to Byron Buxton’s delayed start. The twenty-one-year-old held his own, and if he starts 2020 as hot as he finished 2019, his plus defense in center combined with the fact that he’s already on the 40-man roster could even make him an emergency option in center.

 

Tier 4: 16-20

 

#17 Edwar Colina – 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO – 5.4 OppQual

 

#18 Travis Blankenhorn – .154/.250/.231 – 13 AB, 2 H, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 4 SO – 6.3 OppQual

 

Edwar Colina hasn’t yet been added to the 40-man roster but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him make a leap to the MLB bullpen at some point a la 2019 Brusdar Graterol. He should continue to get opportunities to start in AA and try to improve his changeup, but his 100-mph heater and slider combo have late-inning relief potential. Travis Blankenhorn is on the 40-man roster and theoretically offers third base depth, but he’s more likely to spend 2020 continuing to develop in the minors.

 

I hope you enjoyed a potentially meaningless breakdown of some likely meaningless numbers. With any luck we’ll get a meaningful season underway before too long, but until then, stay safe out there!

 

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[ashbury]

I hope you enjoyed a potentially meaningless breakdown of some likely meaningless numbers.

You buried the lede!

 

Good stuff though.

 

[howieramone2]

Good job!

[High heat]

Was nice to see the top 3 get a good number of at bats this spring.  I like seeing Celestino get some inning. He will make it to the majors on his defense alone, but I think that bat will develop, swing passes the eye test. 

Young pitchers are difficult to evaluate in games during spring training, but we have some live arms.

[TL]

I’m sort of expecting one of Larnach or Kirilloff to have such a good year the Twins are compelled to have them up by September and on the postseason roster. May be as a bench bat for playoffs (bat for Buxton in close game?). Or could accelerate a trade of Rosario - though I’d rather see him get one last run with this team.

 

[BJames]

Larnach and Kirilloff look like they could handle the Bigs Pitching Now.  Not that I'm pushing for them to make the team.  Rooker, So-So and Jeffers, Lewis, Celestino, Not yet. 

[stringer bell]

Seeing Rooker, Larnach, Kirilloff and Lewis in person turned out to be a highlight of this abbreviated spring training for me. I think the lefties are more ready now, but are corner OF/first basemen. I was glad that Larnach got a game in left field. I have a hard time seeing Rosario in a Twins uni for 2021.

[TopGunn#22]

I think Larnach and Kiriloff should BOTH start seeing more games in LF.  I'm not sure if they will be on the same team/level to begin this minor league season, but if they are, they should alternate starting in LF & RF.  In a very limited look, I saw Kiriloff play some 1B in a spring training game and he looked decent (which means he didn't make any bone-headed plays).  Kiriloff and Larnach are READY to hit at the big league level.

[DocBauer]

We heard a lot of glowing things about Lewis, but I thought it was great how he wasn't the least bit intimidated by anything and didn't get down after a slow start and then suddenly started to hit/flash.

[rdehring]

Nice article, Patrick, thanks.  Good to have anything baseball related to read this morning.

 

Several things.  First, I thought I read somewhere that Thorpe stayed in Fort Myers with his family who had traveled from Australia for spring training?  And there is a good chance that this break could help Thorpe more than anyone else.  If they are out for more than a week or two, all the pitchers are going to need time to get stretched out again.  Assuming Thorpe is on some type of throwing program during the layoff, he may not be that far behind by opening day...whenever that is.

 

Agree with all the comments above about Kirilloff and Larnach.  Expect one or both to see some playing time later this year.  Can see them both making the 2021 opening day roster subject to certain other moves.  Talking about roster spots only...Kirilloff replaces Cruz, Larnach replaces Rosario, and Lewis replaces Gonzalez. 

 

As for playing time, Kirilloff gets some games at DH, plays first when Sano is at DH.  is also available for right when Kepler needs a day off or is in center.  Larnach could the starting left fielder should Rosario be moved over the winter.  Lewis could get backup starts at short and center when Buxton needs a rest.  He could also be at third when Donaldson needs a break or is at DH.  In this scenario, Larnach and Kirilloff would play regularly and Lewis could start  80+ games.  

[Seth Stohs]

 

Nice article, Patrick, thanks.  Good to have anything baseball related to read this morning.

 

Several things.  First, I thought I read somewhere that Thorpe stayed in Fort Myers with his family who had traveled from Australia for spring training?  And there is a good chance that this break could help Thorpe more than anyone else.  If they are out for more than a week or two, all the pitchers are going to need time to get stretched out again.  Assuming Thorpe is on some type of throwing program during the layoff, he may not be that far behind by opening day...whenever that is.

 

Agree with all the comments above about Kirilloff and Larnach.  Expect one or both to see some playing time later this year.  Can see them both making the 2021 opening day roster subject to certain other moves.  Talking about roster spots only...Kirilloff replaces Cruz, Larnach replaces Rosario, and Lewis replaces Gonzalez. 

 

As for playing time, Kirilloff gets some games at DH, plays first when Sano is at DH.  is also available for right when Kepler needs a day off or is in center.  Larnach could the starting left fielder should Rosario be moved over the winter.  Lewis could get backup starts at short and center when Buxton needs a rest.  He could also be at third when Donaldson needs a break or is at DH.  In this scenario, Larnach and Kirilloff would play regularly and Lewis could start  80+ games.  

 

Thorpe is in Ft. Myers. His parents were here for a couple of weeks but left to go back to Australia today. I don't know if he ever reports to minor laegue camp. 40-man guys have 3 days to report to minor league camp, and I assume he's done what he needed to do. Thorpe has a lot to prove to people right now. 

 

I can see all of those scenarios being possible for Larnach, Kirilloff and Lewis. Le'ts just hope they can get on the field soon and start playing. 

[TL]

Lewis could get backup starts at short and center when Buxton needs a rest.  He could also be at third when Donaldson needs a break or is at DH.  In this scenario, Larnach and Kirilloff would play regularly and Lewis could start  80+ games.

 

Lewis could be ready for that, but I doubt it happens. I think they’ll want him to settle in and become as good as he can be at one position - SS or CF - and not turn into a super-utility, which is what he becomes if he doesn’t get enough reps at his primary position.

 

That said, how valuable could a “rich mans” Marwin Gonzalez actually be? If he could literally play anywhere on the diamond at average or above except C/P and be in the lineup every day, could that be worth more than being an average SS or excellent CF? Feels like that could be a money ball opportunity if you had the right player for it.

[howieramone2]

A top prospect, who can play 3 or 4 positions well. I don't see a downside, nor should it be considered permanent. Any way he can get himself on the field.

[stringer bell]

Lewis played only SS this spring. I don’t think that is the track for a super-utility player. While Jorge Polanco is an asset as a shortstop, because of his bat and contract, I believe Lewis could at some time force the move of Polanco off of SS or traded. Perhaps Polanco could become a regular second baseman.

[howieramone2]

I can see Polanco at 3B, which if I recall correctly, was where he debuted. I don't see arm strength as a major concern. Eliminating the variety of throws will more than make up for it.

[jrod23]

Anyone else follow Thorpe on Twitter? Dude’s been discouraged almost constantly since he “left for personal matters”. I can’t read his between the lines crap on Twitter. Did the Twins wrong him, or is he upset for numbers people playing the numbers game?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Anyone else follow Thorpe on Twitter? Dude’s been discouraged almost constantly since he “left for personal matters”. I can’t read his between the lines crap on Twitter. Did the Twins wrong him, or is he upset for numbers people playing the numbers game?

 

From the tweets, it sounds like he feels like he was done wrong... A lot of times I'll be pro-player, but in this case, he really doesn't have a case. With his time lost for personal reasons, there just wasn't really time for him to compete for the 5th starter job and get himself ready. The Twins are trying to help him with some stuff (personal) and they're in the right, at least for now. With the delay in the season, I suppose anything could happen when they restart.