Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Center Field

[Nick Nelson]

Whenever the 2020 season starts, center field will take center stage: A position that could provide the Twins with their most decisive advantage, but also could devolve into a revolving door.

 

Can Byron Buxton stay healthy? And if not, who will be ready to take the mantle at Minnesota's most critical defensive position?Projected Starter: Byron Buxton

Likely Backup: Max Kepler

 

Depth: LaMonte Wade Jr., Jake Cave

Prospects: Royce Lewis, Gilberto Celestino

 

THE GOOD

 

Buxton's ability to rank among the best center fielders in the majors finally changed from theoretical to undeniable last season. When he suffered a (basically) season-ending shoulder injury on August 1st, his 2.7 fWAR was second-best among full-time CFs.

 

There are plenty of excellent and athletic players who spend some time in center, or even a lot of time. This includes guys like Houston's George Springer, Arizona's Ketel Marte, Atlanta's Ronald Acuña, even Minnesota's Max Kepler. But among true, no-doubt center fielders – the guys you wouldn't dream of playing anywhere else on the field – only the eventual MVP Mike Trout was having a better season than Buxton through four months according to Fangraphs' all-encompassing metric.

 

This shouldn't come as a surprise to any Twins fan who had the opportunity to observe Buxton's breakout showing. As usual the speedster was a spectacular force in the outfield, routinely taking away extra-base hits from the opposition and earning affinity from his pitchers. Meanwhile his bat finally emerged, as Buxton slashed .262/.314/.513 with 30 doubles, 14 home runs and four triples in 295 plate appearances.

 

Looking vastly more comfortable at the plate after years of fits and starts, Buxton just played his game. He wasn't patient, but he was aggressive and intentional, reducing his career 32% K-rate to a far more palatable 23%.

 

Because of his lineup depth, Rocco Baldelli was able to use Buxton as No. 9 hitter almost exclusively, keeping pressure off Buck's shoulders and also positioning him as a second leadoff man. Getting the league's fastest player on base as the lineup flips over gives the Twins a dynamic competitive advantage. That's beyond the simple fact of boasting an .827 OPS in the nine-hole, where American League peers averaged a .652 mark. Buxton seems very likely to return to that spot in this year's loaded batting order.

 

Taking into account everything he adds, it's no coincidence Minnesota went 53-25 (.679) in games Buxton started last year, compared to 48-36 (.571) in those he didn't. For context, over a full season, that's the difference between a 110-win team and a 92-win team.

 

Baseball is a game where the impact of individual contributors is inherently limited – what with nine players in the lineup and on the field, and 12-13 different pitchers in the mix at any given time. But when he's got it going like last year, Buxton makes an outsized impact that few others in the league can match.

 

If you could guarantee me he'd be on the field and healthy for a vast majority of the Twins' games (however many they play), I'd pick the 26-year-old Buxton as preseason favorite for team MVP – ahead of Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, everyone – without hesitation.

 

Unfortunately, as we all know, this is far from guaranteed.

 

THE BAD

 

Throughout his pro career, dating back to his days in the minors, Buxton has continually been unable to avoid injuries, thanks to a style of play that often puts him in harm's way (plus a healthy dose of bad luck). Jammed thumbs, strained wrists, concussions, a broken toe... the center fielder has seen it all, and as a result he's played in 100 games only once in an MLB season since first arriving in 2015.

 

His collision with the wall in Miami last August was not only another sobering reminder of the hazards incumbent in Buxton's game, but especially worrisome because of what it did to his shoulder. Buxton suffered a subluxation (or dislocation, essentially), and after the rest-and-rehab approach failed to take, he required surgery to repair his labrum.

 

It's a pretty serious procedure, which is why six months later, he still wasn't quite ready to appear in spring training games and the Twins weren't fully committing to his Opening Day readiness. Having said that, all indications suggest things are going smoothly and with the delayed start to the season, he's got a good shot at being out there from the jump.

 

But even if he's available for Game 1, it's gonna be tough for anyone to trust in Buxton's ability to stay consistently available for the balance of the season. As much as injury-prone tends to be a miscast label, it's one of the only things Buxton can't run away from.

 

Life without their star center fielder is something the Twins have sadly grown accustomed to over the years, and they are fairly well equipped for it. Last season Kepler made 53 starts in center while the starter was sidelined, and he was perfectly serviceable there. It's a big part of the reason we named him our 2019 team MVP.

 

Kepler remains an option if Buxton goes down for any length of time, and it wouldn't be entirely surprising to see him in center field on Opening Day. But it sounds as though the Twins would prefer to avoid taking Kepler out of right field, so they may be more inclined to go with LaMonte Wade Jr. or Jake Cave, especially in a shorter-term absence. Each has proven himself capable defensively there – albeit Cave to a lesser extent – and can hit enough to be a viable starter. A true backup center fielder is one of the few things missing on this roster, but I think the Twins are in decent shape make do.

 

In the minors, much hinges on No. 1 prospect Royce Lewis and where he ends up. When he was drafted as a shortstop, many believed he was destined to end up in center, due to his rough edges as an infielder and his blazing speed. Every one of his defensive starts in the minors had come at short until his second-to-last one at Pensacola in September, when he was in center. He then started primarily out there in the Arizona Fall League, where he looked like a natural and was voted MVP.

 

 

Lewis might be the heir apparent behind Buxton, who's still under team control for three more years. But in order to actualize such a plan, the Twins will need to get their top prospect more outfield reps. For the time being, it looks like they're intent on sticking with him at shortstop, leaving 21-year-old Gilberto Celestino as the most promising center fielder in the system.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

 

Buxton is the most exciting wild-card factor in play for the 2020 Minnesota Twins. If his surgery takes and he returns to the field without losing anything, he'll be a transformative force for the lineup, defense, and pitching staff. If he can manage to stay out there, he elevates this team in drastic ways.

 

But, if history repeats and he can't stay out there, the Twins are in better shape than most teams would be when losing a cornerstone talent. Kepler makes for a fine fill-in, and opens the door for Minnesota to tap its copious corner outfield depth in right.

 

The Twins will be okay without Buxton. But with him? They might be unstoppable.

 

 

~~~

Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher

Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base

Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Second Base

Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Third Base

Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Shortstop

Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Left Field

 

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[High heat]

I believe Buxton is a big part of the season.  I don’t believe the ball will be flying out of the park like last year so getting on base and manufacturing runs is going to be needed.  If Buxton can hit like last year, get on base and play good defense makes this team much better and deeper and I believe is the needed piece for the season.  
I liked the way Celestino  looked this spring.  Won’t be ready to start the season but if he can show it at AA he would be an option later in summer. 
as far as Lewis goes he looked good enough at SS and want to keep him there as long as possible.  Good SS don’t come along 

[the_brute_squad]

I'm sure he won't be there to start the season but Buxton needs to bat leadoff. Having the fastest player in baseball at the top of the lineup makes absolute sense. You put Arraez in the #2 hole and Buxton will have over 50 SB's on the season. Not to mention it's going to give Arraez or whoever hits #2 in the lineup nothing but fastballs to choose from. Keeping him @ #9 in the lineup will take away 75-100 at-bats during the season, that's way to many for a potential team MVP.

 

[Steve Lein]

Just one clarification on Royce Lewis:

 

"He then started primarily out there in the Arizona Fall League, where he looked like a natural and was voted MVP."

 

This is not true, he played primarily 3B, with 17 total games in the infield (4 at 2B, 1 at SS), and played in CF only 5 times. 

 

They gave him some exposure there, and he's certainly athletic and fast enough to be good to great out there, but the Twins haven't exactly made OF any type of even second priority for him yet (that said, I still believe OF is where he ends up playing for the Twins).

[Rosterman]

This is the Buxton year. You either longterm him or trade him. That being said, if you need anyone to play centerfield because of a Buxton injury, you look at Celestino or Lewis NOW. Not Cave, not movbing Kepler...but the potential future. You can take the hit of one weak bat in the order to see if Buxton is the need longterm or if you have the pieces to go in a different direction.

 

Not sure if the Twins a low-balling a Buxton contract too much, or Buxton just wants to wait it out. But that decision can be moot if you have comnparable players coming up to replace the current holder.

[SF Twins Fan]

What bugs me most about Buxton not being able to stay on the field is his lack of awareness of when to go full throttle and when not to. If I remember correctly the game he got injured in last season against Miami, the Twins were 7 - 0 and it was late in the game. There was no need for him to run full speed into the wall to try and catch that ball. Let it hit the wall and play it off the bounce.

[4twinsJA]

I like Buxton batting 9th, he seems comfortable there. If gets on base, puts speed on in front of Twins best hitters. He contributes most on defense, why put extra pressure on him batting. When healthy Buxton is an elite center fielder, to say let's see if a prospect is as good seems a little optimistic.

[joefish]

Can we see what the Twins W-L record was for each Twins' player when each one is on the field?

[DocBauer]

IMO Lewis is a SS, will remain a SS, and will be the SS of the future with Polanco and Arraez moving around in some combination that works best and makes the most sense. However, if Polanco via additional work and experience and his new throwing motion continues to improve defensively i could see Lewis slide over to 3B where I think he would be just fine.

 

Why am I talking about Lewis in an OP about Buxton? Because he is mentioned above and because the two of them often seem to get mentioned in the same breath. With Lewis showing nothing to dismiss him from the infield, the focus should be on Celestino as a replacement/backup option sometime over the next year or so. In the meantime, there is Kepler, Cave and Wade to help fill in. There is also no reason Lewis can't first come up as a multi-position capable player who COULD do a nice job in CF. But again, IMO, there is just no need to focus on Lewis anywhere but the infield on a daily basis.

 

I'd like to think playing deeper may have helped Buxton stay healthy lady year simply because he did make it to August. Thought I heard/read he had been working with Hunter some this off-season. I hope that is finally true and something I've been clamoring for the past couple of years.

 

While we all want Buxton healthy for at least 140G, he will miss some time here and there, as does everyone. As I feel Celestino is a year away, I would be ecstatic if either Cave or Wade could rise up and prove themselves at least ML average in CF so Kepler could just stay in RF most days.

[Shaitan]

I think it's a stretch to call Lewis a CF prospect at this point. Especially considering that this series didn't list Sano as a backup 3B option.

 

[BodieInSD]

 

I'm sure he won't be there to start the season but Buxton needs to bat leadoff. Having the fastest player in baseball at the top of the lineup makes absolute sense. You put Arraez in the #2 hole and Buxton will have over 50 SB's on the season. Not to mention it's going to give Arraez or whoever hits #2 in the lineup nothing but fastballs to choose from. Keeping him @ #9 in the lineup will take away 75-100 at-bats during the season, that's way to many for a potential team MVP.

I'd agree, IF he could get the average/OB% up.  Even if his "breakthrough" offensive season, he hit .263 with an ob% of .314.  That is simply too low for a lead off hitter.  

 

As he is an excellent base stealer (percentage-wise) I'd grant him a bit more leeway, than the average guy, but those are unacceptable for a good line-up.

[twinfan]

Buxton is a great center fielder who hits well but is inconsistent. You don't know what offense you will get but when you get it, it should be great. Staying healthy is the key