2020 Minnesota Twins Top-5 Progression Candidates Via xwOBA

[Cooper Carlson]

If you frequently visit Twins Daily, which I assume you do, you probably saw Patrick’s post on the top-5 regression candidates for the Twins. Today I’ll be taking you through the top-5 players expected to improve for 2020 using the same statistic, xwOBA.If you don’t know what xwOBA is, that makes sense and it means you are a normal person. Essentially it comes from the base stat of wOBA and Fangraphs describes it like this: “Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.” Now xwOBA uses batted-ball data (exit velocity, launch angle, etc.) which gives a better picture of what the results should have been based on how the ball was hit. Got it? If not, go read the beginning of Patrick’s post for more explanation.

 

Before we get into it, I have one more note. Patrick only did the top 5 hitters expected to regress, but sadly there is only one hitter expected to get better via wOBA so I’m including pitchers in this. It’s the same concept except the pitchers hope to limit the hard contact.

 

MLB average in 2019: .320 wOBA, .319 xwOBA

 

Progression Candidates

 

Lewis Thorpe - .384 wOBA vs. .328 xwOBA (.056 diff)

 

Thorpe is someone who noticeably got unlucky a lot last season. Despite that, he still pitched well and may have been the early favorite for the fifth rotation spot. Instead, he will start the season in AAA and should be with the Twins soon. I know the Twins are extremely high on Thorpe, and it will be fun to watch him in 2020.

 

LaMonte Wade jr. - .320 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA (.053 diff)

Wade Jr. is a dark horse to make the team out of spring training. If Buxton is not healthy enough to make the roster, then Wade jr. might have an opportunity because he can play center field better than Jake Cave and he could also keep Max Kepler in right field. Not to mention Wade Jr. is definitely capable with the bat.

 

Fernando Romero - .390 wOBA vs. .351 xwOBA (.039 diff)

 

Romero is probably the most interesting name on this list. When spring training began he was likely to be given a great opportunity to make the team, but visa issues have kept him away from camp. He was supposed to be a lights-out fireball reliever in 2019, but everything fell apart with his command and hitters getting the best of him. His 2020 performance may decide whether he stays with the Twins for another season.

 

Willians Astudillo - .288 wOBA vs. .320 xwOBA (.032 diff)

 

Everyone’s favorite turtle makes this list after what was a disappointing 2019. His expected wOBA would put him exactly at league average, so perhaps there is still some hope for Astudillo. He is in a roster battle with Cave, Wade jr, and himself among others to make the final roster cut. This is an important spring for La Tortuga.

 

Jake Cave - .343 wOBA vs. .360 xwOBA (.017 diff)

 

Of course all three of Astudillo, Wade jr, and Cave make the list of players expected to get better because they are the three main players fighting for the final roster spot. The bat from Cave is probably the best of the three, but his fielding hurts him and also hurts our eyes. For him to make the roster the Twins have to be at least somewhat confident that Cave will step up his fielding in 2020.

 

Some other players slightly expected to get better via xwOBA are Marwin Gonzalez, Taylor Rogers, and Cody Stashak. Make sure to go read Patrick’s post to see who may regress in 2020 and leave a comment on one or both posts!

 

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[Patrick Wozniak]

Another guy who "beat" his wOBA last year was Alex Avila - .323 wOBA vs. .357 xwOBA. Unfortunately, it can be explained by the shift. His wOBA was .427 with no shift and only .310 against the shift and he was shifted 88.7% of the time. But if they ever ban the shift...

[Mr. Brooks]

It's actually still called regression, not progression.

[by jiminy]

Could you add a link where you say, "Patrick’s post on the top-5 regression candidates for the Twins"?

[by jiminy]

Could you add a link where you say, "Patrick’s post on the top-5 regression candidates for the Twins"?

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

It's actually still called regression, not progression.

Professionally, we've always used "reversion to the mean" regardless of direction (out-performance or under-performance)

[diehardtwinsfan]

I cannot help but notice it's all younger players... not sure I'd call it "unlucky" at this point... more like a skill or skills not quite being utilized.