What Really Matters in Spring Training?

[Cody Pirkl]

Spring training is a time for players to get back into the swing of things before the games that actually mean something begin. We’re a little over the halfway point and most of the regulars have gotten at least some work in. If you’re looking at the performance of a particular player or the team as a whole and thinking “this whole thing is coming crashing down”, you’re doing it wrong. Here are a few things beyond performance that are actually meaningful in spring training.Health:

Pretty much the most important part of spring training. Players need time to ramp up before the 162 game season begins. In just the last week, we’ve seen Jorge Polanco and Marwin Gonzalez make their spring debuts after offseason surgery. It was great that both came back and had two hits in their spring debuts, but it’s more meaningful that they’re on track to play in the games that matter in a few weeks. While Byron Buxton is an important piece, it should be encouraging that he’s the only regular still sidelined and that all reports say he’s progressing well. The health so far in camp is a great sign (knock on wood) whether we’re winning or losing games.

 

Velocity:

A lot of pitchers show up to camp working on something or just trying to get their arms right for the season. However, velocity is something to keep an eye on. If a pitcher shows up to camp striking out the world, a boost in velocity might signal that he made a change to their offseason routine and could foreshadow a breakout. Check out Trevor May so far.

 

 

In 2019, May was averaging 94 or so for the first few months. His effectiveness correlated with his steady rise in fastball velocity as the year went on, which could mean we see a fire breathing dragon right off the bat in 2020.

 

Conversely, if a pitcher gets lit up in spring, who cares right? That is unless they’re missing a few ticks on the fastball. Losing velocity in some cases could be a sign that something’s wrong, and for most pitchers, a few MPH makes a huge difference in their effectiveness. For as worried as some are about Kenta Maeda’s first two starts, the fact that he sat 91-92 should tell you that he’s likely just working the rust out, no need to overreact.

 

Change in Style/Approach

Lots of players spend all winter working on adjustments and use spring training as a test run. If you hear a news piece about an adjustment a player is making, it should raise an eyebrow. This winter we’ve already heard that Jose Berrios is working on the shape of his curveball to tunnel it better with the rest of his pitches and make it more deceptive. Early results are looking good...

 

 

Berrios has been dominant with his change thus far, but in some cases it takes a bit longer to click. Eddie Rosario reportedly wants to see more pitches and become a bit more selective in 2020. In the few televised games I’ve seen, Eddie struck out in a few ABs while laying off some pitchers pitches, something I don’t know that I’ve ever seen before. It’s a huge change for him, and the process this time of year carries much more weight than the resulting strikeout.

 

Other changes in style/approach I’ve seen are Randy Dobnak talking about working on the depth of his slider and Marwin Gonzalez appearing to have a new timing mechanism in his swing. If Dobnak is throwing that pitch for fewer strikes or Gonzalez takes a few swings where he looks lost, don’t be shocked.

 

The Minnesota Twins have a roster full of players whose larger sample size of 2019 should outweigh any stats they put up while they’re playing in between golf sessions down in Florida for these few weeks. In regard to spring training, I always say that the encouraging signs are more indicative than the discouraging ones since adjustments are always being made this time of year. Sit back and enjoy baseball being in your life again, the season is only a few weeks away.

 

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[Lasorda_This_Out]

The most important take away from Spring Training in modern MLB history is that a .500 record is the perfect win-loss result. It allows the FO brain trust to assess clearly the strengths and weaknesses of a team, without a bias of a super "successful" pre-season or a super "dreadful" pre-season? If the Twins finish Spring Training 17-17...perfect!

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Put another way, you WANT to finish .500

[Richard Swerdlick]

Great article. So what should we make of Chacin so far?

[Cody Pirkl]

Great article. So what should we make of Chacin so far?

That's actually a really great question. I'm a firm believer that even for Chacín, his performance this time of year isn't necessarily indicative of how he'll pitch in the regular season. Unfortunately for him, he's on a non guaranteed deal and the Twins have so many options that they can boil their decision down to performance. I like Dobnak better not because of spring performances, but because of how each of their 2019s went.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Great article. So what should we make of Chacin so far?

 

The stats don't matter for Chacin. More important in the evaluation is likely the Trackman stuff, the velocity, movement, arm angles. The Twins are likely evaluating for themselves what he's got left and that won't (necessarily) be determined by the numbers. 

[Rosterman]

You evaliate every pitch and every at bat. Remember, players are facing players of different strengths up until the week ebfore, when lineups and rotations/arms are more set. Plus, the players are doing more skill sets and training every day, from pickup innings to fielding work to just throwing or swinging.