Josh Donaldson: How Twins Could Tweak Slugger's Approach

[Matthew Trueblood]

There's one organizational preference with regard to which Josh Donaldson isn't a perfect fit for the Minnesota Twins. Can he change it? Should he?When a team signs a former MVP and eight-year veteran to a deal that could reach nine figures in total salary, they rarely ask that player to make big changes. The Twins will be no exception to that rule when it comes to Josh Donaldson. One reason why Donaldson was an excellent fit for the team, in the first place, was the way his approach matched the mentality the team was already preaching to so many of its hitters. However, there is one thing the Twins ask of their hitters that Donaldson didn’t do in 2019, and it could be the one adjustment they try to make to his approach for the coming season.

 

Consider the relationship between contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone, and contact rate on pitches outside of it. They each signify something different. To make consistent contact within the zone, a batter has to have a good understanding of that zone, and to engineer a swing that gets them on plane with the flight of the incoming pitch for as long as possible. Making a lot of contact on swings within the zone makes a batter a tough out for opposing pitchers.

 

To make contact on pitches outside the zone frequently, a hitter generally has to have exceptional hand-eye coordination (even for a baseball player, a pool within which virtually everyone has what would be extraordinary hand-eye coordination by the standards of the general population). They also, usually, have to take a more aggressive mindset, and to trust themselves to find the barrel even on pitches that aren’t in the hitting zone on which they were most focused.

 

Both of these skills can be valuable, depending on the overall skill set and objectives of the batter in question. Obviously, despite being representative of different things, they’re also correlated skills: the better you make contact within the zone, the better you’re likely to make contact beyond it. The correlation is far from perfect (r-squared, for the statistically savvy, is 0.41), but it’s meaningful.

 

The fact that there’s a positive correlation between swing-and-miss within the zone and outside it means that no team has to choose between making contact in the zone and on chase pitches. However, the Twins have an organizational preference between the two. They would rather see their hitters have that grooved swing, ready to punish mistakes and defend the zone, than see their guys hitting pitches opposing hurlers want them to chase.

 

Download attachment: chart.png

 

Among hitters who played a meaningful role for Minnesota in 2019, only four had in-zone whiff rates that would have suggested a higher out-of-zone one than they actually had: Eddie Rosario, Jason Castro, C.J. Cron, and Jonathan Schoop. Of those four, only Rosario returns to the roster, and Castro (the one whose in-zone contact rate spiked highest, relative to his out-of-zone rate) was replaced by Alex Avila, who fits beneath the line.

 

Donaldson, then, is an outlier in one way, even if he’s otherwise perfect for this Twins team. Famously, he prioritizes launching into the ball with as much energy as possible, and he did hit 37 home runs last season by virtue of posting his highest average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and Sweet Spot percentage (the share of his batted balls hit in the most valuable band of launch angles) during the five-season Statcast Era. One could certainly argue that, rather than his in-zone whiff rate being too high for his profile, his out-of-zone whiff rate is merely held very low by way of his elite plate discipline.

 

However, there are real holes in Donaldson’s zone, and the Twins might seek to help him cover them, even if it means doing a bit less damage on fringy pitches. Here’s the rate at which Donaldson swung at pitches last season, by where they were in (or outside of) the strike zone.

 

Download attachment: chart (1).png

 

Now, here’s his whiff rate when he swung, again mapped by pitch location.

 

Download attachment: chart (2).png

 

The hole in the upper, inside corner of the zone is not just about whiffs. Donaldson had just two hits on pitches in that corner of the zone all season last year, so even when he made contact, it tended not to be of a very high quality.

 

It might well be that Donaldson’s overall approach works best when he organizes his zone this way—that whatever tradeoffs he might have to make in the plane or speed of his swing in order to cover that hole up in the zone, or whatever aggressiveness he might have to sacrifice on pitches similarly elevated but out over the plate, would offset any gains he’d make by swinging and missing less at the top of the strike zone. If so, the team will probably ascertain as much, and tell Donaldson to keep doing what has made him a superstar.

 

However, the Twins are always looking for a way to take a player to the next level, so don’t be surprised if they at least try to help Donaldson cover that hole. Stylistically, they want their hitters to battle for control of the strike zone so fiercely that pitchers become afraid to attack them. Donaldson’s vulnerability to whiffs within the zone hurts him much less than it would hurt a hitter without such great patience, and it hurts less in a lineup full of hitters who don’t share that characteristic. Still, it sets him apart from his new teammates, and could be a point of emphasis as he tries to stay at the top of his game.

 

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[Richard Swerdlick]

Great article. I suspect that our opponents are aware of this too.

[Doctor Gast]

I might not know what I`m talking about but I think his approach is fine, to foul off pitches outside the zone & wait for pitches which he likes in the zone. I wouldn`t want change anything that might interfere w/ his rhythm.

[old nurse]

High wiff rate.K% 23.5, not what he was but not horrible, either.

Only 2 hits, could be an outlier, not a trend, Past numbers would say bad year. It make take more than one season's daa to normalize https://www.fangraphs.com/players/josh-donaldson/5038/heat-maps?position=3B&ss=2015-04-06&se=2018-09-30&type=5&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=&season=all&data=  

[TFRazor]

I'm also curious how opposing teams are going to go after him considering the lineup around him. They can't nibble because then they're just gonna put him on base in front of somebody like Nelly or Migs. They'll eventually have to put something over the plate and he's gonna pound them.

[BodieInSD]

 

I might not know what I`m talking about but I think his approach is fine, to foul off pitches outside the zone & wait for pitches which he likes in the zone. I wouldn`t want change anything that might interfere w/ his rhythm.

And looking at the state of MLB pitching there are few guys who could locate a pitch out of the zone any better than most do in the zone...

 

[adorduan]

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

[TFRazor]

 

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

#1 Life Hack

[Twodogs]

Other than minor in season tweaks when a person is in a funk, I wouldn't change a thing.

[vavo]

Perhaps he makes more contact than expected outside of the zone because he's rarely swinging at pitches WAY out of the zone. It's not that his hand-eye coordination is great, it's that his eye is great.

 

I suppose your point more that he's missing too often within the zone, as that's the more extreme number. Lay off the high ones I guess...

[laloesch]

Other than minor in season tweaks when a person is in a funk, I wouldn't change a thing.

I agree. It dosn't hurt to give him the data (which i'm sure he has) and see if he wants to tweak his approach at the plate, other than that let Josh do his thing. There are soooo many weapons in this lineup he will get pitches to hit. The beauty of this lineup is that you try and skip him to get to someone else somebody eventually will make you pay for putting him on base.