Reviewing the Twins Extensions From Last Spring

[Cooper Carlson]

Last year the Twins extended both Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to long-term deals that appeared to be very team friendly. These deals somehow became even more team friendly when both of them put up excellent seasons in 2019. Let’s look back at how they did.Last spring the Twins extended two core players, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Let's begin with the starting shortstop in the 2019 All -Star Game, Jorge Polanco. He was an elite hitter the first half of last season. He was hitting for average and power that we hadn’t seen before and he was doing it on a great team.

 

 

Unfortunately, he saw a dip in production after the All-Star break that ended up hurting his overall numbers. This dip was likely caused by fatigue because he had played in over 80 MLB games only once before 2019. Last year he played in 153.

 

Here are his numbers before and after the All-Star break:

• Before: .312/.368/.514 (.882), 14.7 K%, 40.9 hard hit%, 25.8 GB%
• After: .273/.341/.447 (.788), 18.8 K%, 37.6 hard hit%, 33.9 GB%
• League average full season: .252/.323/.435 (.758), 23.0 K%, 38.0 hard hit%, 42.9 GB%

It’s a noticeable difference for sure. Batting average decreased by 40 points, OPS by nearly 100, and the percentages all got worse. Despite all of that, he was still at least an above average player for the entire season. Defensively, he was bad. Polanco tied Guererro jr. for the fewest outs above average at -16. The only player worse than him was Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario. Polanco also had 13 throwing errors and with Sano moving to first base, it could get interesting again in 2020. Overall, Polanco was great in his first year under the new contract.

 

Now moving on to Max Kepler. 2019 was the breakout year we have all been waiting for and we now realize how underpaid Kepler will be. Kepler hit .252/.336/.519 (.855) with 36 home runs and a WAR of 4.4. Almost any stat you find will be a career high and the scary part is this likely isn’t his ceiling.

 

His defense was excellent last season as he was in the 92nd percentile for outs above average. Having him in right field with the ability to fill in for Buxton in center field is a great place to be.

Unlike Jorge Polanco, Kepler was pretty consistent through the entire year. He did slightly drop off in a number of stats, but it was only by around ten points. That being said, Kepler did suffer an injury that held him out for most of the final month of the season so the stats aren’t too reliable.

 

So is there more in the tank for Kepler to unlock? I certainly think so. From 2016 until 2019 he steadily increased his launch angle and hard hit rate every year while decreasing his ground ball rate. If he continues to get better every year like this then we may be looking at the next Christian Yelich type breakout.

 

Those are the two extension candidates from last offseason that the Twins' front office definitely nailed. Now moving on to this year, Miguel Sano is the only player the Twins have extended. Could another player like Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios be in line for an extension? Discuss in the comments!

 

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[JoshDungan1]

Other than continuing to hit Eddie Rosario fourth, I'm not sure much annoyed me more than not actually utilizing some of our backup infielders (especially Adrianza) to give Polanco some time off in the second half of the season. Gotta give him some time off this season.

[Richard Swerdlick]

Hard to think of someone making $7 million or so a year as underpaid. The Twins took a gamble and Max opted for a very secure life changing contract. No one is getting screwed here. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Hard to think of someone making $7 million or so a year as underpaid. The Twins took a gamble and Max opted for a very secure life changing contract. No one is getting screwed here.

You didn't read the article did you?

Nowhere in the article is it claimed that Kepler is underpaid or getting screwed.

[Gibb17]

“2019 was the breakout year we have all been waiting for and we now realize how underpaid Kepler will be.”

 

That’s a claim Kepler is being under paid. Literally in the second sentence written about Max.

[Doctor Gast]

I certainly hope we can extend both Berrios & Buxton (the BBs). It might be tough

[HrbieFan]

Buxton is a hard one to extend. I'm sure the Twins would love to, but at what price. A healthy Buxton has a much different value than the version that misses half the season. If I'm Buxton, I bet on myself and hope for a healthy season and then look at an extension

[Bickle19]

 

Hard to think of someone making $7 million or so a year as underpaid. The Twins took a gamble and Max opted for a very secure life changing contract. No one is getting screwed here. 

We are talking about money relative to production, not simply a lump sum of money. In that regard Max was underpaid. 

[Mr. Brooks]

“2019 was the breakout year we have all been waiting for and we now realize how underpaid Kepler will be.”

 

That’s a claim Kepler is being under paid. Literally in the second sentence written about Max.

My bad, missed that.

But definitely no suggestion that he's being screwed.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would certainly extend Buxton, but given his ability to stay on the field, I'm guessing the gap between what a healthy Buxton should make and what the team will offer is likely going to end that conversation. 

 

I would not extend Rosario, as I think year to year is the right option for him. 

 

I would look at a couple of our relievers such as May and Duffey. I'd consider Littell next year, though I could see some wisdom in doing it this year if they think last year was for real. 

[bighat]

I'd try and extend Buxton to a similar deal, the Twins have continued to gamble on this guy for his entire career and you'd think at this point they might as well see if they can buy low on his potential. I know all about the "sunk cost" fallacy and the Twins might find themselves in that area with Bux - but at this point he's shown he does have the skills, if he can stay on the field.

[joefish]

Polanco was great? Not in my book. I like his bat, but he is a defensive liability.

[BodieInSD]

 

Buxton is a hard one to extend. I'm sure the Twins would love to, but at what price. A healthy Buxton has a much different value than the version that misses half the season. If I'm Buxton, I bet on myself and hope for a healthy season and then look at an extension

...not just "misses half a season",  he misses half of EVERY season ( more if you include his rookie year).  

[BodieInSD]

Around the horn - 

C) Garver is not a kid, and plays a position that wears guys down overnight (ahem, Joe Mauer).  No long-term deal.

2B) Arreaz has just over a half season in the bigs.  A nice bat but not much defense shown.  And No long-term analysis can be done.  No deal, but check again at end of the year to see if first season is a harbinger or a fluke.

1B 3B RF and SS are looked up.

Rosario is a tough one.  Puts up some nice numbers (and they seem to improve year over year barring injury) and will undoubtedly give max effort and play hurt.  Too bad he'll also play injured and do himself and the team no good.  He is also a bit of a air-head in the field, but does have the "tools" to be a top-notch defender.  If you say he is "easy to replace", remember that he is the best LF the Twins have had since Delmond Young!  (remember that dumpster fire?  That should have been EASY to upgrade, but it took YEARS to do). I say make a fair offer to him to lock him up, but simply refuse to go too high - there are outfield prospects galore in the Twins system, and they are close to being ML-ready.  Kiraloff (sp?), Larnach or even one of the middle infield prospects (as a bridge to a real OF prospect) can fill his shoes for at least one of his plusses (Contract hitting, power hitting, glove, arm), and maybe more.  

 

Hate to say this but Buxton gets NO offer beyond a one year deal.  And that would have to be HEAVILY incentive laden with a low base salary.  We all know why - he plays less than half the schedule.  And he doesn't get "hurt", he gets "INJURED".  Badly injured.  Every year.  Even in 2017 (his good year) he missed over a months' worth of games.  He has to prove that his entire ML career (injury-wise) has been a fluke.  Tall order.

 

Sign Berios.  Long term. At whatever cost. Period. If his arm is sound, lock him up.  He isn't an elite pitcher (yet) and may never be a top-5 starter, but he is a high quality starter who is reasonably durable and he works HARD to improve himself.  To replace him in the free agency market, you'll need to sign one of the top (if not the top) free-agent starter when he leaves.  That means outbidding the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Angels, Red Sox.... well you get the picture.  Feel confident in replacing Berios tby that route?  Really think you'll see someone better in a Twins uniform? Yeah...

My opinion is that you NEVER sign bullpen guys (closer excepted) to long term deals.  Too variable year to year and decent/good relievers are always available, be it in free agency or at the trade deadline.  Even the Twins can get them!  And whatever you do don't give Duffy a long-term deal of ANY sort.  He has stunk too bad far too recently to make me believe that last year is his new normal.  Hope it is, but... my dad said put hope in one hand and sh*t in the other and see which one fill first.

[howieramone2]

We will have internal replacements for Berrios prior to 2022. No need to break the bank or pick up a Mauer contract in free agency. We can take care of our bullpen needs internally.

[TFRazor]

I got money on Max getting MVP votes

[howieramone2]

5 years for 90M sounds doable. My thought was he would want a minimum of Wheeler money. 5 for 118M.

[TL]

He would jump on 5 for 90M. Much different situation than Wheeler since Berrios has 3 years of team control remaining. An article from early Feb compared his situation to 3 recent signings and pegged a 5 year deal around 60M give or take. Personally I think he would still be a steal at 90M verses a free agent at that price, but no reason the Twins should need to go that high.

[laloesch]

I would definitely try and extend Berrios. Give him a wheeleresque offer and get it done. That said, I differ from most of the Twins fans here on Rosario. I think he's a good player even with the gaffs and would be open to extending him for the right price. Signing him to an extension doesn't mean we can't trade him down the road.

 

Another area were i diverge from many posters here is Buxton. I'm just not sold on him yet. If he could stay consistently healthy and be more consistent offensively I would pull the trigger on an extension, for the right price. Perhaps this year is the year. I'd also like to see a Trevor May extension, perhaps towards the end of the season. If he pitches like he did in 2019 it's absolutely worth it. I still think he could be a good starter for the Twins, but it looks like that ship has sailed which is somewhat unfortunate.