Marwin: Still Here, Still Good

[Cody Pirkl]

Marwin Gonzalez made mistakes in 2017, as many Astros players did. Fans are rightfully angry with his actions that led to a career season at the plate. While some fans have made it known that they’d like to have seen the last of Marwin in Minnesota, that move would be a mistake. His career year may have been a mirage, but Marwin Gonzalez has a lot to offer this Twins team.Some uneasiness with Marwin Gonzalez lies in his contract. Some believe that the 2 year $21m the Twins gave Marwin were ill-gotten gains. He was coming off a season where he was worth 1.5 fWAR. His offense was slightly above average as he put up a triple slash of .247/.324/.409, good for a 103 wRC+. A far cry from his career year in 2017 in which he was 44% above league average.

 

Fangraphs calculated the cost per WAR on the 2018 free agent market. At $6.8m per win, Marwin does look like a slight overpay just by looking at his numbers. However, a lot of Marwin’s value lies in the role he plays. The Twins brought him in without planning on giving him a starting job on opening day before Sano’s injury. They waited out free agency and snagged the best super utility player in baseball, a value that goes beyond numbers. If the Twins were paying Marwin for his 2017, that 4.0 fWAR would have been compensated much more handsomely. He would have had a starting spot from the day he was signed if the Twins believed he was that 2017 player. The fact of the matter is, the market identified Marwin’s 2017 as an outlier. The Twins weren’t fooled into offering this contract.

 

In terms of performance, Marwin’s versatility is his main draw, as previously mentioned. Sano’s injury to begin the year made use of Marwin’s flexibility as he immediately slotted to fill in at third base. In addition, he played some first base in C.J. Cron’s absence, as well as the corner outfield spots, periodically spelling Rosario and Kepler as nagging injuries piled up. The nice thing about Marwin is that even with all of the spots he plays, he’s not just a body manning a position. At 1B he’s worth -2 defensive runs saved, at 3B he’s worth 4 DRS, and he’s a very strong outfielder with 7 DRS.

 

 

It was a down year for Marwin on offense in 2019 with a 93 wRC+. He suffered through a miserable start to the season with a 33 wRC+ in March and April. He’s traditionally a slow starter with a career wRC+ of 85 over the first month of the season. He also was late to spring training in 2019 due to the late signing which can throw off a player’s preparation for the season.

 

Marwin also had a 66 wRC+ in September which helped weigh down his offensive stats. To end the year, he was recovering from an oblique injury and was likely rushed back to fill in for the several other Twins injuries. He had a triple slash of .264/.322/.414, good for a 93 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR. That’s an admirable line for a 10th man on a roster, but normal routine and good health may lead to improvement for Marwin in 2020.

 

It was also an odd year for Marwin in the sense that he actually made improvements to his game. He had a career best hard hit %, average exit velocity, and highest launch angle, all better than his career year in 2017 where he allegedly knew which pitches were coming. Despite all of this, he put up his worst offensive numbers since 2016. If he can repeat these trends, I’d expect him to wind up with some much better looking offensive numbers to pair with the value he provides on defense.

 

You don’t have to buy his jersey, but Marwin Gonzalez is still going to play a big role for the Twins in 2020. His apology may not be enough for some fans, but there has yet to be any proof of it being an issue in the clubhouse which now includes two players directly victimized by the actions of the 2017 Astros. Even in a down year in 2019, he was valuable beyond measure for the Twins. He’s poised to add more value to this talented roster with even a slight rebound. While Marwin Gonzalez will always be linked to 2017, don’t let his past keep you from recognizing his contributions in the present.

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

— Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

 

Click here to view the article

[howieramone2]

He'll always be welcome on my team. Great move signing him.

[High heat]

I thought it was a great signing and even after last years down performance he still was worth the $. 

Big value in a guy who can fill in at multiple positions, play them well and add something with the bat. Not to mention he is ok play 4 or 5 days a week spelling guys at different positions along the way. 

[sftwinsfan]

Nice to have a guy like that, he can play multiple positions well if you need to give someone a rest or to cover a short-term injury. Plus he's got a pretty good bat. Outside of the rough start to the year he was pretty good in the middle, had some big hits. 

[South Dakota Tom]

Yes, he had a down April and May (and September, apparently) but wasn’t he right up there through the summer? I kept feeling his OPS was over .800 and he was right there with the best of the lineup through those months...

[cmoss84]

Ehire and others can easily replace him. Would rather cut him loose and spread a message.

[rv78]

Never liked the signing and still don't, He's an average hitter at best and his versatility in the field can easily be replaced by the other bench players. (Cave, Adrianza, Astudillo. Wade). Pile on the sign stealing scandal and I like him even less. My opinion, every Astros player involved should have to serve an 80 game suspension. Cheating is cheating in any form, doesn't matter if it's PED's or sign stealing or corked bats, pine tar, vaseline, scuffing the baseball, whatever. 

[mikelink45]

I am not going back to his Astros days, but I am looking at last year and this and I think he was there as a one size fits all bandaid last year and he filled in well.  He was not a star and he probably got to many ABs, but this year with Donaldson and Sano at the corners and lots of corner OFs his need and therefore his value dropped.  SS and CF are the weakest positions and they are his weakest too.  I do not expect to see him in 2021. 

[jorgenswest]

I think any projection for Gonzalez should probably give little weight to 2017-2018. His 2019 numbers are in line with his 2016 but he isn’t nearly as valuable as 2016 because he played just 1 game at SS and 2 games at 2B last year. Even Astudillo was given 2 games at 2B.

 

He is still a good defender on a corner. His bat likely at 5-10% below league average isn’t empty. A good BABIP year and he a valuable piece. Selecting the right match ups with pitchers and his numbers will be skewed better. I hope he has one more useful year. On the other hand if there is more decline I hope the Twins will be ready to cut ties.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think any projection for Gonzalez should probably give little weight to 2017-2018. His 2019 numbers are in line with his 2016 but he isn’t nearly as valuable as 2016 because he played just 1 game at SS and 2 games at 2B last year. Even Astudillo was given 2 games at 2B.

 

He is still a good defender on a corner. His bat likely at 5-10% below league average isn’t empty. A good BABIP year and he a valuable piece. Selecting the right match ups with pitchers and his numbers will be skewed better. I hope he has one more useful year. On the other hand if there is more decline I hope the Twins will be ready to cut ties.

this. Ehire is a very comparable player with the bat, is a better fielder and should come in at approximately half the price on the free agent market.

[Cody Pirkl]

this. Ehire is a very comparable player with the bat, is a better fielder and should come in at approximately half the price on the free agent market.

It should be noted that while Ehire is versatile, the best DRS he put up at any position is 0. 2019 was also his first year in the big leagues putting up a wRC+ over 85. If I had a choice between the two to resign next offseason I'd say Ehire, but that's only because of the price difference for utility players.

[Cody Pirkl]

Never liked the signing and still don't, He's an average hitter at best and his versatility in the field can easily be replaced by the other bench players. (Cave, Adrianza, Astudillo. Wade). Pile on the sign stealing scandal and I like him even less. My opinion, every Astros player involved should have to serve an 80 game suspension. Cheating is cheating in any form, doesn't matter if it's PED's or sign stealing or corked bats, pine tar, vaseline, scuffing the baseball, whatever.

 

Hes typically a slightly above average hitter which is more than we can say about Adrianza or Astudillo and he has much better defensive metrics at any positions that any of Cave, Adrianza and Astudillo play (other than catcher)

[jorgenswest]

Ehire plays middle infield. Gonzalez plays the corners. They overlap at 3B. If Ehire isn’t needed it will be Gordon or Lewis or some other middle infielder that pushes him out.

 

Gonzalez needs to hit well enough to be useful at a corner.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Hes typically a slightly above average hitter which is more than we can say about Adrianza or Astudillo and he has much better defensive metrics at any positions that any of Cave, Adrianza and Astudillo play (other than catcher)

I liked the Marwin signing, and I’m not saying he should be cut. I’m all for letting things play out this year.

 

However, Marwin has a career 101 WRC+, Adrianza career 84 WRC+ and Cave (since Marwin’s best defensive positions are LF and 3B) sports a career 111 WRC+.

 

Now looking at last year Marwin 93, Ehire 102, Cave 113.

 

I’m with you on Astudillo, but to me, Astudillo isn’t really in the equation. Looking to 2021 I agree with Jorgen, it’ll be the arrival of Lewis, Blankenhorn, Kirilloff or Larnach that forces the issue on Marwin.

[jkcarew]

Gonzalez is the definition of a bench guy on a team that expects to compete for a championship. Veteran who can provide near-average offense from either side of plate, and good defense at multiple positions. Adrianza was a revelation offensively in 2019, but, we don't know if he can sustain that. Cave has been even better offensively. Like virtually every bench player on every major-league roster, all of these guys likely suffer if exposed to extended periods of every-day action. For that reason, their redundancy is a good thing, not a bad thing. Meanwhile, if Adrianza can sustain the offense, and one or more of the prospects actually 'arrive', then in 2021 it will probably make sense to let Marwin walk.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Made mistakes? He cheated along with many other Astros and in so doing took the integrity of the game down the crapper. They knew what they were doing. I for one will be happy to see him move along after this season if not sooner.

[rv78]

 

Hes typically a slightly above average hitter which is more than we can say about Adrianza or Astudillo and he has much better defensive metrics at any positions that any of Cave, Adrianza and Astudillo play (other than catcher)

Disagree. His range in the infield isn't as good as Adrianza's. Cave has better speed than him in the outfield and with Astudillo able to play catcher that makes him more valuable than Marwin especially since Donaldson and Sano all but have the corner infield spots locked up. in 2019 he hit .264, Adrianza hit .272, Astudillo hit .268 and Cave hit .258. All 3 are very capable of filling his expensive shoes. 

[ewen21]

Sometimes things go beyond analytics

 

I would be happy if the Twins simply hit the eject button and no one ever spoke his name again

[howieramone2]

If we are going to sent a message and hit the eject button, just cut The Turtle. We don't need cheerleaders, we need rings. Saw Cruz brought his son to ST. He can easily replace The Turtle and looks much better in a uniform.

[jorgenswest]

If we are going to sent a message and hit the eject button, just cut The Turtle. We don't need cheerleaders, we need rings. Saw Cruz brought his son to ST. He can easily replace The Turtle and looks much better in a uniform.

Astudillo’s DRC+ was 95 last year and above league average for his career. That is better than Gonzalez (93) and Cave (89) who faced a much easier set of opposing pitchers.

[Cody Pirkl]

Disagree. His range in the infield isn't as good as Adrianza's. Cave has better speed than him in the outfield and with Astudillo able to play catcher that makes him more valuable than Marwin especially since Donaldson and Sano all but have the corner infield spots locked up. in 2019 he hit .264, Adrianza hit .272, Astudillo hit .268 and Cave hit .258. All 3 are very capable of filling his expensive shoes.

Defensive value goes beyond range, which is why he outperformed all of them last season. We have the depth to replace him internally to some extent, but the front office isn't going to pay for him not to play here. You said it yourself, those are expensive shoes.

[diehardtwinsfan]

every team needs a player like Marwin on the roster... A guy who can play multiple positions well and essentially provide a league average bat is far more valuable than whatever WAR metric they accumulate. 

[ewen21]

 

If we are going to sent a message and hit the eject button, just cut The Turtle. We don't need cheerleaders, we need rings. Saw Cruz brought his son to ST. He can easily replace The Turtle and looks much better in a uniform.

How is Gonzalez necessary to win a ring?  I get that he has 10.5 left on his contract this year and we aren't going to just throw it away, but I know I would.  His game is no better than Adrianza's and I think it is important to send a message to all Twins players that this bullsh*t is not tolerated here.

 

Not sure how or why that is a crazy notion.  Tell him he can keep his check and just leave.

[Riverbrian]

I'm still not sure how many people were actually paying attention to 2019 and were able to notice the complete change of roster/lineup management. Or even noticed how well the difference worked. Or even tried to put two and two together. 

 

Marwin playing multiple positions in 2019 was the key to executing that successful change. 

 

The question is not "Should Marwin be on the team in 2020"? The question is "Who will be replace what Marwin does in 2021"?

 

If he isn't re-signed. 

 

The day of simple utility should be gone with the wind. The day has dawned for Super-Utility. 

[USAFChief]

The day has dawned for Super-Utility.

Cesar Tovar nonconcurs.

[Riverbrian]

 

Cesar Tovar nonconcurs.

 

Cesar knows he wasn't a dawning. 

 

He was a light bulb that lit the sky in his corner of the world during a time when people assumed that light bulbs were some sort of sorcery. 

[Cody Pirkl]

 

How is Gonzalez necessary to win a ring?  I get that he has 10.5 left on his contract this year and we aren't going to just throw it away, but I know I would.  His game is no better than Adrianza's and I think it is important to send a message to all Twins players that this bullsh*t is not tolerated here.

 

Not sure how or why that is a crazy notion.  Tell him he can keep his check and just leave.

He rated better defensively than Adrianza at every position they both played. He's been a better offensive player than Adrianza every year of his career other than last year. He also led the team in slugging percentage in high leverage situations.

 

I still don't understand this message everybody wants to send. Rich Hill chose to sign here with a player that cost him a World Series. Kenta Maeda was happy to be coming here even though Marwin cheated his way to a World Series MVP against him. The players can put it behind them, so why can't the fans? Would you be happy if we cut Marwin and ate $10.5m so the Indians could sign him for the league minimum and use the player we're paying to to try and dethrone the Twins? I only see downside if that's the route we take.

[howieramone2]

Don't confuse him with the facts.

[jkcarew]

 

...I think it is important to send a message to all Twins players that this bullsh*t is not tolerated here.

 

Not sure how or why that is a crazy notion.  Tell him he can keep his check and just leave.

That'd be balllsy. $12M for Cruz...$44M for Polanco...$20M for Pineda....and about $10M for Gonzalez. Four contributors and about $86M.

 

Would send a message though.

[ewen21]

 

That'd be balllsy. $12M for Cruz...$44M for Polanco...$20M for Pineda....and about $10M for Gonzalez. Four contributors and about $86M.

 

Would send a message though.

Uh, there is a distinction I make between taking PEDs and being part of a team-wide cheating scandal.  Those guys did it and deserve a strike.  Another strike and I would want to cut ties.  The other thing about it is all of those other players suffered consequences.  Marwin has not.  You do understand this, right?