Why the Twins are Betting on Homer Bailey in 2020

[Andrew Thares]

In the years leading up to the 2019 season, Homer Bailey was one of the worst starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. His name being Homer was almost fitting, as he gave up a lot of those in his final few seasons as a starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds. In 2018, the Reds went an almost inconceivably bad 1-19 in the 20 starts Homer Bailey made that season. However, in 2019, Homer Bailey had a surprising bounce back season, that lead the Minnesota Twins to giving him a 1-year, $7-million contract this winter.From 2009 to 2014, Homer Bailey was one of the more reliable starting pitchers in Major League Baseball on a yearly basis. Over that this, Bailey posted a 3.95 ERA (3.85 FIP) with a 7.7 K/9 and a 2.7 BB/9 across 917 innings pitched. This helped Bailey get a 6-year, $105-million contract extension from the Reds back in February of 2014. Ultimately, this went down as one of the worst contracts in recent history, as Bailey posted a horrendous 6.25 ERA (5.13 FIP) with a 6.7 K/9 and a 3.3 BB/9 over 231 and 2/3 innings pitched from 2015 to 2018. Over that timeframe, Bailey’s 6.25 ERA was easily the worst mark in Major League Baseball (min 200 IP).

 

Given how bad he pitched in the four previous seasons, Homer Bailey’s 2019 was probably a career saving bounce back season. While the 4.57 ERA that Bailey posted in 2019 is not exactly popping off the charts, that is more than good enough to be a solid number five starter in most MLB starting rotations. For a quick comparison, Martin Perez had a 5.12 ERA as essentially the Twins fifth starter last season. So, if Bailey can replicate his 2019 performance in 2020, the Twins will be getting more than their money’s worth out of him.

 

Now, it is easy to assume that 2019 was more of a fluke season, then an actual sign that Homer Bailey actually turned his career around, and I myself fell into that notion when the Twins first signed him. However, after doing some digging, there is reason for optimism that Bailey could repeat his performance again this season. However, simply thinking that Bailey will be able to do this again, given his history leading up to 2019, without any supporting evidence would be a fool’s errand. Fortunately, it appears as though the Twins have done their homework and are not just drinking the Kool-Aid on Homer Bailey.

 

From a statistical standpoint, there are plenty of underlying indicators that Homer Bailey’s 4.57 ERA in 2019 was a true reflection of him as a pitcher, and not just a one-year fluke where he was lucky to have a lower ERA than he deserved (i.e. Ervin Santana in 2017). One of the most encouraging things to look at is Bailey’s improved strikeout rate, which was up to 21.4 percent. That was a big jump up from where Bailey had been at in previous years and was the highest strikeout rate he had posted in any season with at least 25 innings pitched since 2013 (which was the best year of Homer Bailey’s career). This, coupled with the fact that Homer Bailey kept his walk rate and home run rate in check, helped him post a respectable 4.11 FIP in 2019.

 

When diving into the Statcast metrics, they tell more of the same story. In 2019, he held opposing hitters to a .267 expected AVG, a .419 expected SLG and a .318 expected wOBA. All three of those numbers were easily the best Homer Bailey has posted since the Statcast era began in 2015, and were only slightly behind the numbers that Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda put up last season.

 

While numbers can be great, it is even better to have a tangible reason to back up the idea that Homer Bailey is actually an improved pitcher. Often times these tangible factors can be hard to identify, as they are hidden in a cluster of a number of not so obvious reasons, that had a cumulative effect on making a pitcher better. However, for Homer Bailey, there does seem to be one strong indicator that explains a lot of his improvement, and that is the adaptation of his splitter.

 

For much of his career, Homer Bailey has relied on a balanced four-pitch mix of a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a changeup and a slider. However, in 2017, Bailey decided to all but ditch his changeup in exchange for a splitter. For the first year and a half of throwing the splitter, Homer Bailey was still clearly getting used to the new pitch that he had never thrown before in his career. However, after returning from nearly a two-month long stint on the DL for right knee inflammation, Homer Bailey found his form with the splitter which instantly became his best pitch.

 

In 2019, opposing hitters accumulated just a 0.214 wOBA against Homer Bailey’s splitter. Among the 106 MLB pitchers who threw at least 500 changeups or splitters last season, that was the 12th lowest mark. So, we are talking about Homer Bailey developing a borderline elite level off-speed pitch this late in his career. A big factor in this was the high 38.2 percent whiff rate Homer Bailey had on his splitter. For reference, between Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios, they combined to have just one individual pitch with a whiff rate above 30 percent in 2019, and that was Jake Odorizzi’s fastball, which had a whiff rate of 30.8 percent.

 

It is apparent that Homer Bailey noticed this too, as he drastically ramped up the use of his splitter in 2019, this time at the expense of his sinker, which was easily the worst pitch for Bailey throughout his entire career. He also started throwing more four-seam fastballs as well, and as a result Homer Bailey threw either a four-seamer or splitter on 75 percent of his pitches in 2019, with the other 25 percent coming from a combination of sliders and curveballs. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Homer Bailey continue to increase the usage of his splitter in 2020, to take full advantage of this gem of a pitch he found late in his career. If so, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Homer Bailey has another strong season, and puts up an ERA in the low-to-mid 4s, which I’m sure all Twins fans would take out of the backend of the rotation.

 

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[JoshDungan1]

I'll be very interested to see how he develops his pitches this season with the potentially new ball being in play this season.

[puckstopper1]

Nice article, Andrew.

 

I'm worried that the hitters are going to catch on / catch up to his splitter. If that happens, the pre 2019 Bailey will reappear.

 

It hope that is not the case, but it it is, the Twins do have a few other options.

[mikelink45]

I have no expectations. Just wait and see.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Better than Martin Perez does not inspire confidence....

 

That being said, I hope the OP is right!

[Richard Swerdlick]

Whose is to say that he won't be able to get his ERA below 4?

[Doctor Wu]

 

I have no expectations. Just wait and see.

 

 

I have no expectations. Just wait and see.

That sums it up nicely. High expectations will invariably lead to disappointment. Hope for the best and cross a few fingers.

[Ruven]

> for Homer Bailey, there does seem to be one strong

> indicator that explains a lot of his improvement, and

> that is the

 

absence of a long-term guaranteed contract. Just sayin’.

[big dog]

I just hope that he fools people for six weeks or so, and if the league starts nailing him it's after Pineda is ready to return.  That would be an acceptable, though far from ideal, outcome to me.

[twinfan]

With the offense we have behind him, I expect Bailey to win 12-14 games this year for us. He is a serviceable pitcher who knows how to get hitters out.  

[DocBauer]

1] Unlike Perez, Bailey not only maintained his solid numbers throughout the season, but showed improvement. (Yes, the A's ballpark may have helped). Perez started hot and then regressed.

 

2] Bailey has been working on a new pitch that not everyone is capable of, and seems to be developing a feel for it. Refer back to point #1.

 

3] Bailey was once pretty good before a series of injuries.

 

I wasn't a fan of Bailey's signing. At all. And then I looked back at 2019, read more about his new splitter, remembered how good he once was, and then decided it was actually a smart move. Now, whether he is "back" in some form or just fooling everyone and they will soon catch up and figure him out, that we just don't know at this point

 

Interesting to me is Chacin has better or nearly matching career numbers in everything from ERA, ERA+, WHIP, BA to BB/K statistics. And he's a year younger, FWIW. But Chacin is coming off a bad season while Bailey is on the rebound. So Bailey gets the $7M ML deal and Chacin gets the milb invite. I know there is more to it than just that, but I find it interesting.