Break Glass in Case of Emergency: Could Gilberto Celestino or Royce Lewis Cover Center if Byron Buxton Gets Injured?

[Patrick Wozniak]

Twins Daily’s Matthew Trueblood recently wrote about the possibility of Minnesota trading for Albert Almora Jr., a defensive-oriented outfielder to potentially serve as a depth piece in the case of a Byron Buxton injury. The scenario had the Twins giving up a young fringe rotation arm or bullpen piece, but does Minnesota have the depth to replace Buxton without a trade?Last season we saw Minnesota shift Max Kepler to center field when Buxton missed significant time with a shoulder injury. This is also probably the likeliest scenario this season, as Marwin Gonzalez or Jake Cave could slide into right. However, while the Twins would still be okay offensively, they would suffer defensively with a significant downgrade in center and right field. This is somewhat problematic with Minnesota’s infield defense being well below average (with the exception of 34-year-old Josh Donaldson) they can ill-afford a sub-par outfield as well. Especially considering that their starting rotation consists exclusively fly-ball oriented pitchers (with the potential exception of Randy Dobnak). Keeping Kepler in right field also seems like the best bet to keep him injury-free and maximize his offensive potential.

 

However, trading for a viable back-up to Buxton might not be as easy as it seems. First, you have to find a team with a good defensive fourth outfielder which is willing to trade. There’s also the question of why Minnesota would want to give up hard-earned pitching depth to acquire something that doesn’t seem to be a huge priority for the team (why didn’t they just sign a fourth outfielder?) The rotation and bullpen depth seem more important than a Buxton backup at this point.

 

While both a trade or sliding Kepler over to center are possibilities, is it also possible that the Twins could replace Buxton from within the farm system?

The Twins are loaded with talented corner outfield prospects who are close to MLB- ready, which is certainly one possibility. Brent Rooker, Alex Kirilloff, and Trevor Larnach are all impressive prospects that bring potentially potent bats. Minnesota could take the hottest hand and hope that he will rake at the big-league level. However, this still leaves us with Kepler in center, and none of the three prospects are projected to be above average defensively, even in a corner spot. All three would need to be added to the 40-man roster as well.

 

If we take a look at minor league players capable of playing center field who are currently on the 40-man roster, we find LaMonte Wade Jr. and Gilberto Celestino. Wade Jr. saw some time with the Twins last season, but is less than ideal as a Buxton replacement. Kepler is the better center fielder than Wade Jr., who is better served in a corner role. Wade Jr.’s best asset is his eye, as he can take a walk with the best of them, and he does bring some speed, but he doesn’t seem an adequate replacement for Buxton.

 

With Celestino things get a bit more interesting. As someone who has yet to play above A+ ball and is entering his age-21 season, viewing Celestino’s chances as a Buxton replacement in 2020 warrants a healthy dose of skepticism. He struggled mightily to begin 2019, but had a great second half (.343/.416/.522) that boosted his prospect status. And there’s a lot to like in Celestino. He has good speed, is considered a very good defensive center fielder, and has good exit velocities.

 

With the stacked offense that Minnesota has, Celestino would be up for his defense, and his speed and anything he could contribute in the nine-hole would be a bonus. The defense, arm, and power can be seen in this highlight package put together by Twins Daily’s Tom Froemming:

 

 

A+ is obviously far from the MLB, but Celestino’s chances might not be as crazy as they seem. Assuming Buxton has recovered from his shoulder injury and starts the season healthy, Celestino would have time to continue his development in A+, potentially moving up to AA with a hot start. And as you may remember, Jorge Polanco made his (albeit brief) MLB debut as a 21-year-old straight from A+ in 2014.

 

While not yet on the 40-man roster, Royce Lewis is another possible Buxton replacement. Lewis isn’t exactly knocking on the door, but he reached AA in 2019 and is widely considered as Minnesota’s best prospect. His numbers in both A+ and AA weren’t great, but he came back with a vengeance in the Arizona Fall League, winning the MVP. He also played multiple positions in the AFL, including center field where he made this catch:

 

 

Minnesota will likely give Lewis every opportunity to continue playing shortstop, but many feel that center field will be where he eventually ends up. His lack of experience in center would definitely be a concern, but like Buxton, he has incredible speed which could help mitigate any route inefficiencies. As with Celestino, Minnesota would mostly be looking for defense in this scenario, but Lewis’s speed would nearly replace Buxton’s and he could conceivably add some offensive value as well. Due to where he’s at in his development, Lewis would also be more feasible as a second-half replacement for Buxton.

 

Calling up Celestino or Lewis would certainly qualify as aggressive, and Minnesota has to consider both prospects’ long-term development as well. The most likely scenario definitely seems to be the Kepler-to-center-shuffle, but depending on the timing (and progress), either Celestino or Lewis could make at least some sense. Or, with a little luck, Byron Buxton will remain healthy in 2020 and this article can happily remain hypothetical.

 

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[Danchat]

Celestino struggled at Cedar Rapids most of the year... so to expect him to contribute in the big leagues anytime soon would be rather foolish, at least if you're expecting him to do anything at the plate. He'd be fine as a defensive replacement, but nothing else.

 

I'd be fine calling him up for a cup of coffee since we'll be using an option year on him no matter what, but he's not going to be a substitute for a reserve outfielder this season.

[Diesel]

I honestly think Jake Cave is the answer for this year.... he would be a slightly below average center fielder, but Kepler and a healthy Rosario can hold the corners..... Celestino should only be a defensive replacement at this point in time if he makes the majors this year...

[Brock Beauchamp]

I honestly think Jake Cave is the answer for this year.... he would be a slightly below average center fielder, but Kepler and a healthy Rosario can hold the corners..... Celestino should only be a defensive replacement at this point in time if he makes the majors this year...

Kepler is a farrrrrr better defender than Cave and should (and will) man center in place of Buxton, just as he did last season.

 

Jake Cave can barely man a corner spot competently, much less center.

[D.C Twins]

Royce Lewis is not even close to an option. He will have plenty on his plate trying to succeed in AA. There is A LOT of work left to do.

 

At this point he has more potential to be a bust that to be an emergency replacement for a Buxton injury in the MLB this season or next

[High heat]

I think Celestino is an option this year. Like others said he is already on the 40 man.  Keeping Kepler in RF is best for Kepler.

 

i really don’t want Lewis in CF unless SS has to be Totally abandon. 
outfield defense is very important over the long hall and defense in general for the sucess of the Twins, 

[Vanimal46]

I would move Kepler to CF for sure. If the injury* is short term, Cave or Wade are on the 40 for a reason... If it’s long term** I would seriously consider adding Kirilloff to the 40 and give him the playing time in RF.

 

* furiously knocks on wood

** sorry for even typing this horrific possibility

[jimbo92107]

More likely if they needed to call somebody up, it'd be Larnach, with his big bat. Move Kep to CF, Larnach to RF, done city. More boom boom for the fans. 

[howieramone2]

If Buxton doesn't extend in the future, he will be replaced by Lewis or Celestino. If the injury is over a week or so, I would like to see the most ready of the two.

[jorgenswest]

Cave made some obvious memorable mistakes that stick with us.

 

Wade is more limited athletically and it shrinks his range.

 

Cave gets to more balls and Wade is more reliable on the balls he gets to. I think Cave is the better bet long term defensively. His catch percentage was slightly better than his expected catch percentage last year. Wade wasn’t close.

[Doctor Gast]

If we are forced for some reason in the near future need a long term center fielder replacement (heaven forbid) or any other position & need to trade. For goodness sake DON`T TRADE ANY MORE OUR YOUNG ARMS.

[Linus]

I’ve wanted a right handed hitting back up CF for three years. I think the FO has a bit of a bias towards keeping Cave since they gave up a good prospect for him.

[howieramone2]

They gave up a lottery ticket for Cave. That's the furthest thing from their mind.

[Linus]

They gave up a lottery ticket for Cave. That's the furthest thing from their mind.

Who is now the Yankees 4th best prospect.

[howieramone2]

4th best in a marginal farm system. Pitched 3 games in A+. The board hoards prospects.

[jorgenswest]

Gil wasn’t even in the Twins prospect handbook at the time of the trade. He is a good prospect now but he is probably still a lottery ticket. He was signed in 2015 and over 5 years has only around 200 innings. The Yankees had to put him on their 40 and the options clock has started. He will turn 22 (same age as Duran) and probably needs to start in high A given his persistent high walk rate and just 3 games at that level. If he can get through this year making a quick jump to AA and getting his walk rate down he will move beyond a lottery ticket.

 

Back to CF options...

 

Cave is on the team because he is a major league caliber OF with options. I don’t think he is as good as his numbers but with the bat he has around an .800 OPS and with the glove statcast shows that he gets to a lot of balls. His success rate on catches was better than his expected catch rate and overall his success rate ranked 33rd of 225 players with at least 25 attempts. Buxton was 16th and Kepler 27th. On the other end Rosario was 199th and Wade 219th.

[MN_ExPat]

 

I would move Kepler to CF for sure. If the injury* is short term, Cave or Wade are on the 40 for a reason... If it’s long term** I would seriously consider adding Kirilloff to the 40 and give him the playing time in RF.

* furiously knocks on wood
** sorry for even typing this horrific possibility

 

Good point and thought, but having seen both Kiry and Larnach play the outfield I'd probably have to give the defensive edge to Larnach.     

 

I'm not saying Kiry is a slouch on defense, just to the eyeball test, Larnach appears to be a little more fluid in how he roams the grass.

[jjotto]

I haven’t seen any comments about CF Jimmy Kerrigan getting a 40-roster spot. Is he good enough defensively to be an option?

[jmlease1]

I think Celestino could hold down the position defensively just fine right now; the fear is that a) he wouldn't be able to hit his weight in MLB right now, and exposing him to that kind of barrage might stunt his development as a hitter for multiple years. When guys aren't hitting they're going to tinker with their approach and he could go from a guy who just needs plenty of reps in the minors to build a hitting base to a guy who is all over the place and has no core to build off of as a hitter.

 

Royce Lewis doesn't have the experience in CF to really be a wise option as a CF replacement at this point. And he could get overwhelmed by MLB pitching at this point too.

 

The best option is going to be moving Kepler over again and letting Wade/Cave fill in the corner if Buxton misses significant time. If he gets a major injury that's going to wipe out the season for him by June, then you can look at trade options too.

[Shaitan]

I guess it would keep the tradition of calling up CFers before they're ready.

[Darius]

A lot of dissent, but I’ve proposed this idea as well. I like it.

 

What people are losing here is that this is an emergency scenario. It’s clearly not ideal. But, IMO, giving Celestino or Lewis a couple of weeks in the MLB is much better than giving up pitching prospects for a 4th outfielder or dumping Cave’s LH bench bat to AAA.

 

I also don’t buy the notion that getting exposed to major league pitching ruins hitters careers. Why doesn’t it destroy these guys to see MLB pitchers in spring training or on a rehab? There is no scenario that contains alternate realities in which a player turns out like Mike Trout vs. a total bust based on whether he saw MLB pitching at age 21.

 

The only downside is that they would be such a hinderance to the offense that it would cost the team games. I highly doubt it could be THAT bad or it would make much difference if it were. The Twins had the best record in baseball with Miguel Sano hitting nothing for the first 3 months of 2019. You just need someone that can play adequate defense in center while keeping Kepler in right.

[jkcarew]

Emergency? The team won 101 games last year with Kepler (mainly) and Cave playing 83 games in center field. They finished 35-19 (.648, 105 win pace) without Buxton. Why? Because hitting is way more important than the delta between average and great defense....and the guy that got his at-bats (Cave) was good offensively. (Cave provided a much better OBP than Buxton; Buxton a much higher SLG.) That's over 500 major-league PA now for Cave, with results that are pretty hard to find in a reserve player.

 

If the FO thinks Celestino, or Lewis....or Kirilloff (actually more likely) are ready, then fine...bring one of those boys up. But it will likely take more than just a hurt Buxton to convince them to do that...at least until relatively late in the season.

[ewen21]

Buxton reportedly got his surgery on September 11 of last year and recovery time is supposed to 5-6 months.  In less than two weeks it will be six months so what gives?  He is getting his work in right now according to all I have read, but isn't ready for live action.

 

We went through a laundry list of ailments in 2018 and we really never knew when he would be ready. The fact that articles like this have to written tells me all I need to know.  I literally have zero expectations for Buxton this year.  This "if healthy" tag is something he needs to lose real soon or else he isn't going to last very long in this league

[ewen21]

 

Emergency? The team won 101 games last year with Kepler (mainly) and Cave playing 83 games in center field. They finished 35-19 (.648, 105 win pace) without Buxton. Why? Because hitting is way more important than the delta between average and great defense....and the guy that got his at-bats (Cave) was good offensively. (Cave provided a much better OBP than Buxton; Buxton a much higher SLG.) That's over 500 major-league PA now for Cave, with results that are pretty hard to find in a reserve player.

 

If the FO thinks Celestino, or Lewis....or Kirilloff (actually more likely) are ready, then fine...bring one of those boys up. But it will likely take more than just a hurt Buxton to convince them to do that...at least until relatively late in the season.

Agree with you 100% 

 

Given a choice between two players with the following skill sets:

One of the very best hitters in the game in all areas, but OK defense vs. One of the best defenders in the game, but OK bat I take the bat every day and twice on Sunday.

 

A great glove is great to have, but I would rather have a spectacular hitter over a spectacular fielder.  There is no way the glove can have the same impact.  A centerfielder makes about 2.5 plays a game on average.  Buxton doesn't make much more than that.  Not his fault.  He just doesn't get the opportunity to make a lot of plays only he can make.  Maybe just a few a year, to be honest.  A great hitter gets up four times a game and can wreck games, screw up the other team's pitching and manager, etc,.,, since his time up is 100% guaranteed.  Buxton could wait weeks before he makes a great play.  It is beyond his control.

 

It really is that simple

[Twins1964]

 

Royce Lewis is not even close to an option. He will have plenty on his plate trying to succeed in AA. There is A LOT of work left to do.

 

At this point he has more potential to be a bust that to be an emergency replacement for a Buxton injury in the MLB this season or next

 

Wrong wrong wrong on Lewis. 

 

[mikelink45]

I will take celestino. I like a true center field outfielder. The bat will come but speed and defense are already there.

[beckmt]

With Arreaz and Polanco, the middle infield could be spoken for, Lewis will probably wind up in the outfiled with Kirloff at 1B and Laurnach in Left, with Sano as DH.  Let's start the transition now, so if Buxton cannot stay healty, maybe he and a small piece can get us a front line starter.  Would rather spend money, but this might have to be the way.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

With Arreaz and Polanco, the middle infield could be spoken for, Lewis will probably wind up in the outfiled with Kirloff at 1B and Laurnach in Left, with Sano as DH. Let's start the transition now, so if Buxton cannot stay healty, maybe he and a small piece can get us a front line starter. Would rather spend money, but this might have to be the way.

I disagree. you can never have too many SS! Leave Lewis at SS until he proves he can’t play it.

[beckmt]

 

I disagree. you can never have too many SS! Leave Lewis at SS until he proves he can’t play it.

And have Lewis or Polanco as your utility infielder, seems a waste.  

[ewen21]

 

I will take celestino. I like a true center field outfielder. The bat will come but speed and defense are already there.

He's got "speed and defense" so let's take him?  Doesn't matter that he is 20 and has not played an inning past high A ball.  You have seen this guy play?   Honestly man.

 

Might be 2 or 3 more years before he is ready, by the looks.  I will take Cave as our 4th outfielder.  He is a better offensive player than Buxton even with considerable drop off in the field.  I want a lineup with no black holes in it as opposed to the mythical "speed and defense" in CF which apparently cures cancer and saves lives.

 

This old elitist BS about defense is bunk.  It is important, but it gets far too much weight around here from what I am reading.  I will take a team that is simply average on defense and outstanding on offense.  You can have the all hands HOF defense team with the average bat team and I will kick your teeth in 7 times out of ten (given we have the same kind of pitching).