Luis Arráez is More Than Just a Contact Hitter

[Matthew Taylor]

Luis Arráez just completed one of the most impressive rookie seasons in Minnesota Twins history. Given his slim build (5'10", 177 #) and elite bat-to-ball skills, it’s easy to put the second baseman into a box of just being a contact hitter, but Arráez has shown flashes that he can be so much more.Coming up through the Twins’ farm system, there was never any doubt about Arráez’s ability to put the bat on the ball. At every stop he made along his minor league journey, the left hander reliably posted a .300 batting average while piling up plenty of hits. What kept Arráez from being more highly ranked as a prospect was his perceived lack of power.

 

While he is never going to be a 30-home run hitter, his rookie season with the Twins showed that he has more power than his slight build might suggest. In 2019, Arráez posted a .439 slugging percentage (.435 was league average) and hit for a 162-game pace of 35 doubles, which would have put him 30th in baseball.

 

In baseball, power is made up of two different components, launch angle and exit velocity. For launch angle, Baseball Savant defines a baseball hit at a “good angle” to be one hit between 8 and 32 degrees, known as the “sweet spot”. In 2019, Luis Arráez was ranked fifth among all hitters in SweetSpot% with 42.0% of his batted balls being hit between 8 and 32 degrees of launch angle. While Arráez was toward the bottom of the league in exit velocity, his consistent sweet spot hitting allows him to capitalize on those at bats where he was able to connect with good velocity. Like this double that he hit off Mike Fiers in July:

 

 

On this pitch, Arráez was able to sit on an offspeed pitch and get plenty of bat speed on the Fiers' changeup. Because of Arraez’s consistency in getting a good launch angle on the ball, Arraez was not only able to hit the ball hard (100.7 MPH), but he was able to put lift on the ball (29°) and smash it to right center for a double.

 

Where Arráez generated the most power in 2019 was against fastballs, off of which he slugged .445. Against fastballs, Arraez generated an average exit velocity of 88 MPH and hit 14 of his 20 doubles and 2 of his four home runs. Like this absolute rocket off Adrian Sampson:

 

 

When Arráez was able to get the fastball off Sampson that he was looking for and was able to generate good velocity on his swing (102.2 MPH), Arráez was, again, able to reliably connect with a “sweet spot” launch angle which resulted in him sending the ball out to the Target Field plaza.

 

Another encouraging piece from Arráez’s hitting profile in 2019 was his ability to increase his Hard Hit % (percentage of balls hit 95+ MPH) as the season went on. Arráez improved his Hard Hit % in each month from June - September and capped off his 2019 campaign by posting a 27.6 Hard Hit% and 88.8 MPH average exit velocity in September. Numbers that didn’t lead the league by any means, but provide a glimpse of some power that Arráez possesses that nobody would have imagined he had when joining the club last May.

 

According to Fangraphs’ ZiPS projection system, their number one player comparison for Luis Arráez is Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia was another second baseman who was smaller in stature (5'9", 175#) and came into the league viewed more as a contact hitter than anything else. Throughout his years in the league, though, Pedroia developed power and hit between 12-18 home runs each season throughout his career.

 

Predicting a similar career path for Arráez isn’t far fetched at all. He has the patience and the launching skills to make good contact, and if he can add a few MPH to his exit velocity under the guidance of hitting coach Edgar Varela, we could be seeing a Pedroia-like power profile coming over the next handful of seasons.

 

Do you agree that Luis Arráez is more than just a contact hitter? Do you think he has the ability to add more power in the coming years? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

 

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[High heat]

No I don’t, could he sell out in favorable counts and try and drive the ball yes.  What makes him a good hitter is waiting and having quick hands and wrist.  As long as he has enough power to drive balls into the gaps use entire field and keep left fielders from creeping way in he will be effective.  
there is value in a guy who can get on base with singles and doubles and drawing walks. I don’t want him to adjust the swing to be a mid teens hr hitter and give up what makes him good. 

[highlander]

Arraez is by no means a big fella, but I wouldn't call him slight, svelte, slim, or lithe. He is short. While not barrel chested he is slightly thick. I would say Ehire is slim and tall. In my opinion what makes Luis a premier hitter is his incredible hand eye quickness and coordination. I can see Luis hitting 10 plus Big Flys without sacrificing his plate presence. He is just difficult to throw the ball past with exceptional strike zone awareness.

[theBOMisthebomb]

I'd rather the HRs come organically and that Arraez stays true to his core nature and what we saw in 2019. The sky is the limit with Arraez, I like the comparison to Rod Carew that I heard Roy Smalley talk about last season. There is still room in today's homerun crazy game for a hitter like Arraez.

[Elliot]

Pedroia is is a little guy with a big guy swing that sacrifices contact for power. Although the comparison to Carew is way premature, the similarities in style are real. Carew never wavered in his style or general approach. I hope Arraez follows the same approach. There may be occasional years of double digit home runs, but his value is in high average/high OBP and gap power. If he can improve on the defensive side he can provide value for years to come. The Carew comparison may fit here as well. His value would certainly have been higher as a longtime 2nd baseman rather than making an early shift to first. I realize that was expedited by a knee injury, however the knee injury may have been partly to blame on poor footwork on turning the double play.

[Doctor Gast]

Yes, he`s fine the way he is, he doesn`t have to be a home run hitter. Hopefully he`ll lead off & put a lot of pressure the pitchers to get the ball over the plate for the Bomba Squad to hit him in.

[woolywoolhouse]

 

...there is value in a guy who can get on base with singles and doubles and drawing walks...

 

Twins spent $200million on a guy to do that in Minnesota for more than a decade. And for several of those years, it was worth it, and he was beloved by all (most (many.))

[HrbieFan]

I love his patience at the plate and would be happy if he repeated last year for the next 10 years. I grew up watching Tony Gwyn and Wade Boggs be patient and wait for their pitch. Just like a pitcher doesn't have to throw 95 to be successful, a hitter doesn't have to hit homers to be successful and valuable

[Steve Lein]

This is a great look at why Arraez is a great hitter. It is not, however, showing anything about his power potential (unless maybe you're prognosticating for doubles).

 

His barrel % last year was 2.7% (that's "Not great, Bob"). I think it's an extremely fair and accurate description to call him a "contact hitter," and he doesn't need to change in any way.

[mikelink45]

Our concentration on  power has crossed over the line - it is only one attribute of a batter's  arsenal and I am delighted that we have a person to control the plate, get singles and doubles, take walks and be on base for the Bombas.  Luis - keep being true to the form that has gotten you to the bigs.

[Brandon]

Sure, why not.

[jkcarew]

I'll pile on. Worse idea ever to change approach. He's a a high contact and a high BABiP guy that waits and uses his hands. And it's worked all through his professional career. Is it a formula for having elite value? No. But it's still good and it's a perfect fit for the current Twins lineup.

[Loops]

There is WAY too much emphasis on home runs.  Not everyone needs to be a power hitter.  You need guys that can consistently get on base to give you that chance to score.  Just relying on home run (or strike out) players won't get it done.  Yes, a home run will give you that "easy" run but the best only give you 40-ish home runs a year.  If you have a bunch of guys who get on base a third of the time you can manufacture a lot of runs.

[jrod23]

Just let Luis be Luis.

[saviking]

Wow!!! There is a lot of pushback to this article. Most are saying don't do anything to mess up his current hitting approach.

 

I completely understand the concern but I think extra power will come naturally for him through the years as his body matures and his hitting skills are honed. So even if you don't change his swing he's going to hit more home runs. We should look at any home run he hits as a gift and as he matures I think if will be a gift that keeps on giving ..

[jmlease1]

Yeah, I don't know he needs to change his approach. If he can stay anywhere near league average slugging while getting on base nearly 37-40% of the time, he's going to be a wonderful player. I love having a guy who has the high average-high on base % combo, and as long as he doesn't fall through the floor on power and start posting slugging that's consistently under .400 he's going to be a wonderful asset.

 

Players who get more walks than Ks are really valuable, and I'd love Arraez to be one of those guys for the next 5 years. (Pedroia did it 4 times and came close a couple more) Home runs are wonderful, but this team doesn't have a shortage on power. I think it's really good to have a few table setters sprinkled in among the big boppers, especially ones who can collect hits like Arraez.

[DocBauer]

He's probably going to muscle up a little more the next couple of years naturally. And he has the ability to make consistent and solid contact. So 8-12HR and 30+ doubles should just be natural for him. But he should be himself and do what he does and not try to change in to something he's not.

[Dantes929]

Power may come naturally and he seems to have a pretty good idea when to go after it.   Some how Mauer did also but I have never seen so many beautiful powerful swings that resulted in foul balls straight behind him.   I don't care though.   If we were down 1 with bases loaded in the late innings Arraez was the one I had the most faith in on the entire team.   If we were down 1 with no one on he would still be the one I most wanted at the plate because there was a good chance he got on.  I would take .320 with .400 OBP and a bunch of doubles and not care if he ever hit another home run in his life.

[Homerhankie]

Honestly, I believe Knoblach would be a good comparison in my opinion. Am I off in this thinking offensively?

[gagu]

I think the point of this article got hijacked from the jump in the comments section. As I read it, there is no suggestion the Arraez should change his approach at the plate. Matthew laid out a cogent argument; basically a scenario where Arraez's current hitting style and ability to hit the sweet spot will produce more power in the future as his body matures. Pedroia hit eights home runs over his first full season in his age 23 season. Arraez hit four HRs at age 22 with 215 fewer plate appearances. Would it shock anyone to see him hit eight this coming season or 12 to 18 down the line while using the same general plate approach? IMO, Arraez is more than a contact hitter. Anyway, thank you Matt for laying the argument out so well. It hit home because I had a similar discussion with a friend Wednesday night.

[Dlee]

Great body mechanics and eye on ball. Just like golf a smaller person with great muscle control can hit it just as far as a larger person. But when the ball is not in the butter zone they wont be flinging outsiders over the fence.

[Matthew Taylor]

 

I think the point of this article got hijacked from the jump in the comments section. As I read it, there is no suggestion the Arraez should change his approach at the plate. Matthew laid out a cogent argument; basically a scenario where Arraez's current hitting style and ability to hit the sweet spot will produce more power in the future as his body matures. Pedroia hit eights home runs over his first full season in his age 23 season. Arraez hit four HRs at age 22 with 215 fewer plate appearances. Would it shock anyone to see him hit eight this coming season or 12 to 18 down the line while using the same general plate approach? IMO, Arraez is more than a contact hitter. Anyway, thank you Matt for laying the argument out so well. It hit home because I had a similar discussion with a friend Wednesday night.

 

Yes, that's exactly the point of the article. Maybe I wasn't clear enough in getting that point across, but you hit the nail on the head for the message I was trying to convey. 

[twinfan]

Let's just hope that he doesn't get caught up in the home run craziness like Rosario and that he keeps his nice swing. He could be a lifetime .300 hitter- a la Pete Rose and Rod Carew.