The Case Against Extending Jose Berrios

[Patrick Wozniak]

In the last two offseasons the Minnesota Twins have been able to sign Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and most recently Miguel Sano, to team-friendly extensions. Jose Berrios is another member of the young core whose name is frequently brought into consideration. However, extending Berrios might not be as wise as it seems.In general, extending young players is a great way to ensure that teams can keep young players that are entering their prime years under team control. This is especially important for smaller-market teams like the Twins, who risk not being able to afford a player once they reach free-agency. Kepler and Polanco’s extensions already look like absolute steals and Sano doesn’t have to do much to make his extension worthwhile. So, extending a 25-year-old team ace like Jose Berrios should be a no-brainer, right?

 

If we look a little closer at the numbers, there are a few concerns which make extending Berrios more questionable than the others. The first, and possibly most concerning is his decreasing yearly velocity. Berrios started out with plenty of velo, but he’s trending in the wrong direction and reaching a point where his results could begin to diminish.

 

Here’s Berrios’s average four-seam and sinker velocity from 2016 -2019:

 

Download attachment: Berrios Extension Brooksbaseball-Chart FB.jpeg

 

Each season we see a further decrease in velocity for both pitches. Pitching coach Wes Johnson is well-known for his ability to get his pitchers to maximize their velocity, but in his first year under Johnson, Berrios’s velocity continued to decline. This wasn’t the case with his teammates, as Jake Odorizzi’s four-seamer went from 91.1 mph in 2018 to 92.9 mph under Johnson, while Martin Perez increased from 92.8 mph to 94.2 mph. The fact that Berrios’s velocity is continuing to dip under a pitching coach whose modus operandi is getting some extra oomph out of his pitchers is not a good sign.

 

The problem with losing fastball velocity is that batters’ ability to both hit the ball and hit it with power increases as velocity decreases. Here is a chart from a FanGraphs article, looking at how isolated power (slugging % - batting average) corresponds to fastball velocity:

 

Download attachment: ISO VELO FanGraphs chart.png

 

Clearly the more velocity the better. Here’s a chart of Berrios’s ISO allowed by season:

 

Download attachment: Berrios Extension Brooksbaseball-Chart (1) ISO.jpeg

 

We can see that the ISO started moving in the wrong direction in 2019.

 

In both 2018 and 2019 Berrios also lost spin on both his four-seamer and curve. His fastball spin is in just the 26^th percentile while his curve is in the 28^th. Combined with his now slightly below average fastball velocity (46^th percentile) Berrios’s stuff is not heading in the right direction.

 

Berrios’s seemingly annual second-half struggles are also a concern. Although he reached 200 IP for the first time in his career, Berrios had a brutal August (7.57 ERA) and a 4.64 second-half ERA, compared to a sterling 3.00 ERA in the first-half of the season. Unfortunately, this has been a theme throughout Berrios’s young career and brings into question his ability to remain effective when he is most needed by his team.

Berrios is famous for his intensive offseason workout routine and stays in great shape. During last season’s August slump (in which he saw a velocity drop) some wondered if Berrios’s intense workout regimen was responsible for his late season struggles. He has altered his workout routine some this offseason (Cody Christie gives his ideas for mitigating Berrios’s second-half slides here) and began focusing more on recovery at the end of last season (incorporating deep tissue massage). Maybe the Twins and Berrios have found a way to keep him going strong through the season, but what if Berrios was already getting the most out of his size and talent? Since being drafted, there have always been questions as to how well his body would hold up due to his size. It seems just as reasonable that his advanced fitness level and impeccable work ethic have allowed him the amount of success he has had rather than hold him back.

 

Now, with all this said, Berrios is still Minnesota’s staff ace and should continue to be a good pitcher in 2020. Encouragingly, he used his changeup more in 2019 and it got great results (check out Matthew Trueblood's recent piece for more on that). Berrios seems a good bet to be a top of the rotation pitcher for the remainder of this three years in Minnesota and the Twins should count themselves lucky to have him. However, due to his smaller stature and already decreasing velocity, some level of decline seems more likely than not.

 

Minnesota and Berrios were unable to come close to any kind of extension agreement last offseason and there haven’t been any rumors of an extension this year. Berrios recently lost his arbitration hearing against the Twins, but it seems he was just trying to set a new precedent for other players and doesn’t hold any grudge against the team. However, Berrios would definitely be more expensive than his recently-extended peers and seems more likely to bet on himself by waiting for free-agency.

 

For a team that has been as starting pitcher deprived as the Minnesota Twins, not extending a young and talented arm like Berrios may seem crazy, but they do have him under team control for the next three seasons. A lot can happen in three years. If Berrios’s velocity continues to drop, he becomes less and less likely to take the next step forward and more likely to take a step back. For three years that should be okay, but anything beyond that becomes a risk Minnesota need not take on.

 

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[High heat]

I agree, I really like Berrios, I believe the twins have reached out about contract extension but Berrios or agents either want to gamble on themselves or want more then he is worth.  
 

my problem with Berrios is his motion requires a lot of torch and low body movement and twist to get the movement control and spin that makes him successful. This sync comes and goes which leads to struggles.  

 

I think Berrios has a limited shelf life, he is under team control for 3 more years.  Ride out those 3 years get everything you can’t of him and let him go to the high bidder.  Get what you can out of him while the price is reasonable but done over pay to a guy who traditionally body style doesn’t hold up over time.

 

 

[Teflon]

Fortunately Graterol should be ready to step up soon if Berrios falls off.

[h2oface]

I like it when players get paid proportionate to their performance. I don't like how the system is set up to basically screw the players in their younger years. Should it always be about the ownership winning? I hope he gets paid what he is worth.

[Richard Swerdlick]

Great article. Maybe with Josie's different training regimen this year and with another year working with Wes Johnson, that the decline can be stopped and perhaps reversed. I have felt for some time that Jose's windup is too complex and that he should simplify it. But that is just my observation.

[mikelink45]

I know we have some good young pitchers coming up but I would not sell out on burials 3 years is nice I would be better with 5 so if not this year then next year I really think it's important and the longer we wait the more difficult it is to sign them for that

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Thought provoking article. Thanks.

[4twinsJA]

4 million this year not necessarily getting screwed. 

[chinmusic]

Thanks for the informative article.

 

Biggest factor here is time, to determine whether or not to pursue Berrios long term. And time is on their side (apologies to the Stones) There's no hurry. Wait and see how things develop with his velocity. The outcome might well impact his views on a Twins extension, too.

[etwink]

 

4 million this year not necessarily getting screwed. 

Totally agree.  The point of this article wasn’t Berrios’ salary, but instead it was around his performance and whether he was a risk for an extension.  I think the point was well made - despite how much I hope that it doesn’t turn out to be correct!!

 

Having said that, if he’s not extended it’s not because the “evil management” just stuck it to another “poor working-class athlete”.  This isn’t the 1950s, when guys had to have winter jobs just to make ends meet; Jose Berrios is going to make 10s of millions in his career AT WORST and retire with more money than most of us will make in a lifetime.  This bleeding-heart mentality for the athletes belies the fact that there are rich baseball players AND rich owners; you can debate to your heart’s content about who is getting the bigger slice of the pie but anyone who has a decent baseball career should at least be setup for long-term financial security.  We can’t relate to people in modern sports (for instance recall that ex-Timberwolf Latrell Sprewell infamously said he needed to “feed his family” when turning down an $7M/year contract....we can’t understand their world); stop trying to make them out to be blue-collar workers in a sweat-shop.

[Linus]

Very interesting article. I wonder if his extreme workout routine is playing into the decrease in velocity. Perhaps he is losing some elasticity in his motion

[BrianTrottier]

I thought he was in line for a Cy Young award.

[howieramone2]

MLBTR reported we discussed an extension 2 previous years, and speculated we would again this offseason. We need him, this season and 2021. By 2022, he can be replaced by our farm system etc. We are not being held hostage.

[jorgenswest]

I think we need to look a lot deeper here.

 

Has his top velocity dropped or is he throwing at top velocity less often?

 

There has been an increase in Berrios’ number of batters faced with a ball in play after 1 pitch or 2 pitches from a 1-0 count. Batters crushed him early in counts last year. Is he taking something off the fastball to get ahead? Is that skewing the data? He did increase his innings and batters faced per game as a result but it might have reduced his average fastball.

 

Is the increase in ISO driven by those at bats early in counts?

 

Is he throwing a lower percentage of four seam fastballs? Would that reduce his average velocity?

 

Is he closer to his max velocity against better opponents or hitters or in close games?

 

There is quite a contrast in how Odorizzi and Berrios attack hitters early in counts. Odorizzi does not give in and the result is more pitches per plate appearance and shorter starts. Berrios has many more low count plate appearances and that may be as a result of taking a little off to get ahead.

[Thrylos]

 

I think we need to look a lot deeper here.

A. Has his top velocity dropped or is he throwing at top velocity less often?


B. Is he throwing a lower percentage of four seam fastballs? Would that reduce his average velocity?

 

 

Here are answers for the above:

 

A.

4-seem FB top velo

2016 98.06
2017 98.17
2018 97.96
2019 96.44

 

Yes the top speed has dropped considerably.

 

B.

% usage

2016 FA 50.6 SI 13.3 CH 14.8 CU 21.3
2017 FA 35.7 SI 25.8 CH 8.6 CU 29.9
2018 FA 34.6 SI 23.1 CH 9.1 CU 30.4
2019 FA 32.2 SI 23.4 CH 15.9 CU 28.8

 

2016 data aside due to sample size, he started throwing his change more.  And according to results, that's just an average pitch, while his FB is above average to plus.  Another issue is that his curve dropped to below average from above aveage last season.  In other words, he has been facing major leagues with average to below average stuff close to half of the time last season.

 

If the Twins can trade him for an ace at the deadline, they should do so.  That will make them more competitive in the postseason.

 

Just 2 seasons left of team control and he has shown that he overvalues himself (based on the facts that he refused extensions and went to arbitration over 10% - and lost.)

 

And the most important numbers that make me think that the Twins are better if they trade him are these career splits:

 

Against teams with a losing record: 31-11, 3.46 ERA, 1.175 WHIP
Against teams with a winning record: 12-23, 5.17 ERA, 1.374 WHIP

 

He just cannot win against good opponents like the Twins will be facing in the post-season, esp. if he gets match up with their aces.

 

(For reference, here are Odorizi's career numbers:

<.500 30-19, 3.55 ERA, 1.189 WHIP
>.500 32-35, 4.14 ERA, 1.274 WHIP)

 

An nobody is thinking of Odorizzi as an ace.

 

 

[jkcarew]

Nice, objective article on a player that seems to be pretty much universally admired. Well done. I’m not convinced he can’t figure things out (especially with the change up) and take another step. But this article does a good job of illustrating why...if you have to give him something like #1 money to keep him beyond 2022...it’s not at all clear that you should at this point.

[Matthew Lenz]

I think Berrios being the staff ace is arguable. In a one game winner take all, I want Pineda before Berrios for sure and possibly Hill.

 

To be transparent, I’m suffering from Berrios fatigue. He’s a good pitcher but I’m sick of people treating him like he’s anything more than that.

[DocBauer]

I understand the arguments against. Phenomenally conditioned and determined, I see him growing "mentally" within the nuances of the game itself. The change seems to be improving but the curveball needs to come back.

 

I have often mentioned stuff meeting experience. At only 26yo I see that happening, even if velocity dips some. Not speaking of Berrios directly, but if a guy drops from 96 to 94 while improving his secondary stuff and just further learns how to "pitch", that guy is usually better even with a decrease in pure velocity.

 

I would absolutely like to keep him until or through age 30 if the contract demands aren't unreasonable.

[Dennesey55347]

Berrios seems to be one of the better clubhouse guys and teammates, but if one were to forego a numbers-crunching deep-dive and compare him to every ace/2nd on any playoff team (in either league), I'd be mystified about who I'd put him above.

[h2oface]

 

4 million this year not necessarily getting screwed. 

 

Yup. Definitely deserves so much less than Pineda. Or Bailey. Or Ordorizzi! That is why he won't be the opening day starter, and a number 4 or 5 of the rotation......

 

As far as value even just compared to our rotation...... definitely and necessarily getting screwed, and compared to many of the other pitchers in the league (not all) taking home double and triple what he will, definitely and necessarily. The system as it exsists is not fair, comparitively, to the younger stars that perform.

 

Compared to me, not necessarily getting screwed.

 

Shame on me for feeling the age should not be a reason and way to not have to pay someone comparitvely equal to those that are older for the same or better work.

[h2oface]

 

Totally agree.  The point of this article wasn’t Berrios’ salary, but instead it was around his performance and whether he was a risk for an extension.  I think the point was well made - despite how much I hope that it doesn’t turn out to be correct!!

 

Having said that, if he’s not extended it’s not because the “evil management” just stuck it to another “poor working-class athlete”.  This isn’t the 1950s, when guys had to have winter jobs just to make ends meet; Jose Berrios is going to make 10s of millions in his career AT WORST and retire with more money than most of us will make in a lifetime.  This bleeding-heart mentality for the athletes belies the fact that there are rich baseball players AND rich owners; you can debate to your heart’s content about who is getting the bigger slice of the pie but anyone who has a decent baseball career should at least be setup for long-term financial security.  We can’t relate to people in modern sports (for instance recall that ex-Timberwolf Latrell Sprewell infamously said he needed to “feed his family” when turning down an $7M/year contract....we can’t understand their world); stop trying to make them out to be blue-collar workers in a sweat-shop.

 

Well that is quite a stretch. Is that what you feel? Because no one even came close to saying that.

 

I consider extensions, and talk about them related to whether they deserve it and the risk, to be all about salary and money. After all, that is what extensions are. Future salaries.

[Patrick Wozniak]

Thanks to all for the kindness and great discussion - I really enjoyed reading everyone's comments! I was worried I would come off as anti-Berrios (I like him a lot) and was glad to see my point came across as intended. I'm always really impressed with the general civility and intelligence of the community and the comments section is probably my favorite thing about Twins Daily. Thanks again!

[cardsfan]

Don't you have 3 years left of control over Berrios?

 

Looking at my team's history of pitching extensions. We extended Jaime Garcia despite his previous arm injuries. He was injured often, but, came back well one season with 20 starts in 2015 with a 2.43 ERA and 129 inning. The 2016 season was 10-13 with a 4.67 ERA as the Cards miss the wildcard by 1 game. Somehow Atlanta thought they saw value and they traded John Gant for him. Got value out of that injury riddled pitcher.

 

Then the Cards extended Wainwright 5 years to keep him from going FA. He got $95 million and won 19 games the first year of contract then went his Achilles tendon and arm injuries as he was no longer himself. Did get him on year extensions incentive laden. Our starting pitchers and relievers are always getting injured.

 

We got a 1 year contract out of Kyle Lohse who went 15-5. So he and Boras agreed on a 4 year $40 million extension on last day of season. First two years arm injuries. Last 2 years record was quite good with a 16-3 season. But, unlike you Twins fans gushing over him I never thought he would dominate a good playoff team. We were smart not to re-sign him after his last contract with us.

 

Miles Mikolas got a 4 year extension after signing a good 2 year contract coming back from Japan. He has a sore tendon this spring in his arm, but, apparently not damaged. 4 years starting this year for $68 million. Hopefully back after a couple weeks on April. But, will he be injured plagued over next four years. They gave him an extension after going 18-4 in 2018 and going 10-0 on the road. The Cards won 17 of his 32 starts last year while he went 9-14. Extended him too early before last season started. I guess they wanted payroll certainity.

 

The Cards couldn't buy out Boras client Lance Lynn as he went through 3 down years with TJ surgery and weakness at the end of his fourth season. I still wonder about his continuing good seasons with Texas.

 

And the same with closer Trevor Rosenthal as his arm went kaput needing surgery and Boras kept him from getting an extension. His comeback last year was a disaster for some team.

 

So my bottom line on Berrios you are not likely to recoup value from hard throwers over that many years. It sucks losing them to rehab.

 

The only FA the Cardinals missed out on was Matt Scherzer who is my from hometown. I talked to his aunt and she said he would have deferred $15 million a year for the Cardinals who were coming off 100 win season. Groan.

 

Odorizzi grew up 30 miles from here so there was speculation he could sign here before accepting QO which was surprising. Not sure his arm history.

[IAMNFan]

Berrios issues seem to be Twins issues.  They can't get good hitters out in the strike zone, and I realize this is what separates pitchers.  Odo & Pineda have maybe been better, but it just seemed like Berrios & Gibson were afraid to throw strikes/didn't trust their stuff.  Gibson is gone after a long wait for him to improve.  I'm 50/50 now on whether Jose will ever improve enough to merit a large extension when he cannot separate himself from the pack.  I think the above stats pointing out that he is in the 26th & 46th percentile speak volumes that he is somewhat overrated by most Twins fans.  I would love to be wrong on this one, as I would love to see him win a couple Cy Young's because he is "home grown".

I agree with the article in general.  He is under control, is going to be paid well, will be paid better based on performance and has a chance to either earn a handsome extension or be expendable.  We have time to decide.