Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects: Recap

[Nick Nelson]

We've spent the past couple weeks profiling our picks for the Top 20 (and beyond) prospects in the Minnesota Twins organization. Now, as spring training gets underway in earnest, these exciting young talents will bring the team's minor-league complex to life.

 

Let's step back and take stock of the Twins' system as it stands entering the 2020 season.Twins Daily's Top 20 Twins Prospects of 2020

 

20. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B: Strong infield D and contact swing keep him on Top 20 radar.

19. Cole Sands, RHP: Tremendous pro debut in 2019 with 5-to-1 K/BB ratio in A-ball.

18. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF: The innate power is finally starting to show up in games.

17. Misael Urbina, OF: Standout athlete flashing every tool as an unrefined teenager.

16. Edwar Colina, RHP: Big arm, wicked slider. If he keeps sharpening control, watch out.

15. Matt Canterino, RHP: Freshly drafted righty shows big potential with funky delivery.

14. Matt Wallner, OF: Former MN prep star fared well during first exposure to pro ranks.

13. Wander Javier, SS: Disastrous 2019 season doesn't fully diminish shortstop's shine.

12. Gilberto Celestino, OF: Skills came together during spectacular second half in A-ball.

11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Keeps missing bats at the highest levels. His upside endures.

10. Blayne Enlow, RHP: Progression has been gradual, but steady. Could turn a corner.

9. Brent Rooker, OF: Immense power just might offset K's and lack of defensive value.

8. Keoni Cavaco, SS: All projection at this point, but toolsy teen offers plenty to dream on.

7. Ryan Jeffers, C: Two-way standout at catcher has impressed at every stop through AA.

6. Jhoan Duran, RHP: Hard-throwing whiff machine could impact 2020 Twins as a reliever.

5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Sturdily built sterling performer has makings of a long-term SP.

4: Brusdar Graterol, RHP: The now-departed young flamethrower was an ultra-rare talent.

3. Trevor Larnach, OF: Hits for average and power, shaping up as prototypical star RF.

2. Alex Kirilloff, OF: Remains one of the best pure hitters in the minors. Handled AA at 21.

1. Royce Lewis, SS: Pure ability too blinding to look past, but there is work to be done.

 

POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN

 

C: 1

IF: 5

OF: 6

RHP: 7

LHP: 1

 

Two obvious areas of deficiency in the breakdown above: catcher and left-handed pitching. That's not by coincidence – they are notoriously tough spots to amass impact talent – but I don't see these scarcities as particularly alarming for the Twins.

 

Pitching is pitching. Yeah, it might be nice to have a few more southpaws in the mix, but a righty-heavy staff isn't such a detriment right now for the Twins, and the MLB-ready Thorpe looms large as a lefty threat.

 

As for the catcher position, Ben Rortvedt is right on the fringe of this list in our honorable mentions, and in the Graterol trade, the Twins acquired a 20-year-old catcher named Jair Camargo who is at least kind of intriguing.

 

 

Oh, yeah... Graterol.

 

THE LOSS OF GRATEROL

 

After tabulating votes two weeks ago, we had our Top 20 list fully compiled and finalized. Rollout on the site was already underway when news of the Kenta Maeda trade surfaced. At that point, our options were to reset on the fly, or just run the rankings as planned. We chose the latter, because it seemed valuable to provide context as to what the Twins gave up for Maeda. Graterol was, from our panel's view, the organization's No. 1 pitching prospect before departing.

 

But those rankings didn't necessarily reflect a future in the bullpen, which now seems firmer than ever. And even with all the noise filtered out, Graterol wasn't separated from Balazovic or Duran by much. The Twins have developed three upper-echelon – albeit not quite elite – pitching prospects, giving them the luxury to part with an undeniably stellar talent like Graterol.

 

And, if you're wondering which player now slides into our Top 20, with everyone else bumping up a spot in his absence? It's Rortvedt, who was just mentioned.

 

FEELING THE DRAFT

 

Graterol wasn't the only valuable asset Minnesota lost in the Maeda trade. The Twins also forfeited their Comp B pick in the coming MLB Draft (67th overall), and based on how they've drafted as of late, this could deprive them of a pretty special player. Scouting director Sean Johnson is running a ridiculously effective unit for Minnesota.

 

The top three players on our prospect list (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach) are first-round picks from successive years (2016-2018). All are consensus Top 100 guys. That says a lot. The Twins have also shown some ability to unearth gems beyond the first wave, like prospect No. 10 Enlow (76th overall), No. 9 Rooker (39th), and No. 7 Jeffers (59th).

 

Add in the fact that signing Josh Donaldson cost the Twins their third-round pick (99th overall), and the toll taken on this year's draft class by these win-now moves is considerable. You won't find me complaining, but it's something to keep in mind.

 

WATCH THE THRONE

 

The top two spots on our list remain unchanged from last year, but Lewis and Kirilloff have definitely loosened their grips – especially Lewis at No. 1.

 

His youth, athleticism, pedigree, and makeup were enough to keep the shortstop locked in as the leader and our list, and he's still in a healthy position on most national rankings. But between the scant production last year – .236/.290/.371 with poor plate discipline – and the echoing questions concerning defense and swing mechanics, there's vulnerability here.

 

Any number of players from the list could plausibly take over that top billing a year from now. Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, and Jeffers feel most viable to me, if Lewis were to slip. Of course, there's also a plenty good chance Lewis rebounds in a huge way to re-stake his claim among the game's elite young talents.

 

WHERE THEY STAND

 

Baseball America released its ranking of MLB farm systems last week and had the Twins eighth. Bleacher Report has them sixth. By just about any measure, Minnesota boasts a top-10 system in the game, with a majority of its best talents rapidly approaching MLB-readiness. With the Twins bursting through their contention window, the timing could not be better.

 

Strap in folks. Fun times are ahead.

 

On a final note, I'd like to say that while I was researching and compiling entries for this series, two of my most invaluable resources were Tom Froemming's YouTube channel and Twitter page. If you enjoy Twins minor-league coverage and aren't following both, I highly recommend doing so. Tom puts together so much awesome video content and analysis.

 

PAST TWINS DAILY TOP PROSPECT LISTS:

 

TD 2019 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

TD 2018 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

TD 2017 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

TD 2016 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

TD 2015 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

 

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[dxpavelka]

Would love to see 3 of the top 6 contributing before the end of the Summer and coming north next March / April. 

[Brandon]

That 2015 prospect list has 9 highly contributing Twins in 2019 with Gordon and Thorpe still top prospects.

[Blackjack]

Looking at your 2019 list, where is Luis Arráez??  How can he make it to the big league team and not even be ranked??   Who will be the 2020 surprise??

[Blackjack]

The list seems short of true defensive centerfielders, who is in line to come up when Buxton hurts himself by trying to run thru a wall again?

[mikelink45]

Nice summary that brought in lots of factors from the comments during the ratings.  I would love to see Lewis regain the production that makes all of us feel good about keeping him number 1.   

 

The same with Wander who I have no expectations for at this time.  I would like him to perform to his prospect level and I sure hope Cavaco lives up to this very high rating. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Looking at your 2019 list, where is Luis Arráez??  How can he make it to the big league team and not even be ranked??   Who will be the 2020 surprise??

 

Arraez was in the honorable mention category last year. Probably just after 20. 

 

Everyone has always liked the hit tool, but little power, little speed, defensive concerns. 

 

Prospect rankings aren't scientific. They are about tools and ceiling.

 

His ability to control the strike zone isn't a "tool" but he does that so well, and his bat control and ability to place the ball is amazing. 

[Dman]

Wave two is on its way to the big club.  AA is stacked with high end talent and there are some AAA pitchers waiting in the wings for opportunities.  I am hoping that within that AA pitching group of Balazovic, Duran, Sands, Colina and maybe Ober that they have the stuff to be impact pitchers.  We still need starters and having cheap controllable ones would be even more beneficial for this club as they try to optimize their financial commitments.

 

Very excited about this years top 20.  After some wave two graduations though it looks like the farm might take a dip in the rankings.  Hopefully they manage to draft and develop well.

[nicksaviking]

 

Looking at your 2019 list, where is Luis Arráez??  How can he make it to the big league team and not even be ranked??   Who will be the 2020 surprise??

 

The bullpen looks much more locked down this year than last year, but I could see Bailey Ober, Bryan Sammons or Sean Poppen open some eyes if they get moved to the pen a la Zack Littell.

[gunnarthor]

I like this system but I don't love it like I loved the Sano/Buxton/Berrios group when they were coming up. The 2014 Twins system had 6 guys in pipeline's top 37. That year or the next, they had 11 in BP top 101. What's interesting is seeing that some of the highly regarded guys in those years - Meyer, Stewart, - failed but some other guys - Kepler, Rosario, Polanco - became pretty solid MLers.

 

I think this year will tell us a lot about the pitchers in the system. Duran seems to me the only one who could end up as a #3 or better type but Balazovic could have a solid career, sorta like Scott Baker had.

 

I'm way more confident in the bats. I think Lewis, Kiriloff, Rooker, Wallner, Larnich, Blankenhorn and Jeffers will all play multiple seasons in the majors. 

 

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

I like this system but I don't love it like I loved the Sano/Buxton/Berrios group when they were coming up. The 2014 Twins system had 6 guys in pipeline's top 37. That year or the next, they had 11 in BP top 101. What's interesting is seeing that some of the highly regarded guys in those years - Meyer, Stewart, - failed but some other guys - Kepler, Rosario, Polanco - became pretty solid MLers.

 

I think this year will tell us a lot about the pitchers in the system. Duran seems to me the only one who could end up as a #3 or better type but Balazovic could have a solid career, sorta like Scott Baker had.

 

I'm way more confident in the bats. I think Lewis, Kiriloff, Rooker, Wallner, Larnich, Blankenhorn and Jeffers will all play multiple seasons in the majors. 

It's a valid point but one big difference-maker is the advancements this organization has made in terms of development. Even if the talent isn't quite as strong on the surface, I feel much more confident in these guys reaching their potential.

[gunnarthor]

 

It's a valid point but one big difference-maker is the advancements this organization has made in terms of development. Even if the talent isn't quite as strong on the surface, I feel much more confident in these guys reaching their potential.

Actually, this is one of the things I disagree with the most. Falvine have been in charge for three drafts and two deadlines where we traded for prospects. Yet, coming into this season, we had as many top 100 prospects in our system from the old regime as we did from the new. (Trading Graterol changed that number).

 

We were told that Enlow was the equivalent of a first round pick but he's struggled enough that our hopes on him should be lowered. Some of the trades are too early to judge but Celestino and Duran are the only two in our top 20 (apologies if I missed someone). Duran looks really promising but Celestino has over 650 PA in A ball and doesn't look great. And this FO has also been willing to lose draft picks at a pretty alarming rate. 

 

The Twins development group has always been good and I expect it to remain good but I'm not as convinced that our FO is as capable of identifying talent or at least some talent. Again, I'm way more confident of our hitters abilities than our pitching group. 

[howieramone2]

Yup. Board scapegoat TR laid the foundation.

[Mr. Brooks]

Actually, this is one of the things I disagree with the most. Falvine have been in charge for three drafts and two deadlines where we traded for prospects. Yet, coming into this season, we had as many top 100 prospects in our system from the old regime as we did from the new. (Trading Graterol changed that number).

 

We were told that Enlow was the equivalent of a first round pick but he's struggled enough that our hopes on him should be lowered. Some of the trades are too early to judge but Celestino and Duran are the only two in our top 20 (apologies if I missed someone). Duran looks really promising but Celestino has over 650 PA in A ball and doesn't look great. And this FO has also been willing to lose draft picks at a pretty alarming rate.

 

The Twins development group has always been good and I expect it to remain good but I'm not as convinced that our FO is as capable of identifying talent or at least some talent. Again, I'm way more confident of our hitters abilities than our pitching group.

No, the Twins development group has not always been good.

That's why they were the worst team in baseball for most of a decade, and Ryan got fired. They were awful on the development side.

[saviking]

How about this for our 2020 hitting lineup to start 2022 ..

 

Outfield

 

Kepler

Buxton

Larnach 

Kiriloff  (OF/1B)

 

Infield

 

Donaldson

Sano

Palanco

Arraez

 

Utility 

 

Lewis

Gordon

 

DH

 

Rooker

 

Cather

 

Garver

Jeffries

[howieramone2]

Few teams have done better than us in IFA for over 10 years. You spot them when they're 14, sign them when they're 16, then the development begins. Few do it better on a consistent basis.

[Nick Nelson]

 

The Twins development group has always been good and I expect it to remain good but I'm not as convinced that our FO is as capable of identifying talent or at least some talent. Again, I'm way more confident of our hitters abilities than our pitching group. 

Huh. This doesn't seem to be evidenced by reality. With the exception of 2012 (Buxton and Berrios) the Twins had 9 straight first-round picks basically fail to amount to anything from 2009 through 2015 (Bashore, Wimmers, Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Bard, Stewart, Gordon, Jay). 

 

I also think you're deeply underselling the impact of prospects acquired via trade from the new front office. Devin Smeltzer was a difference-maker out of nowhere last year and the Twins got him for basically nothing. Luke Raley, added in the same deal, helped them complete the Maeda trade. Zack Littell is now a key bullpen fixture. Jake Cave is a proven big-leaguer and quality OF piece. The team is taking fringe talents (on the surface) and turning them into legitimately useful MLB assets. How often did that happen with the last regime? 

[gunnarthor]

 

Huh. This doesn't seem to be evidenced by reality. With the exception of 2012 (Buxton and Berrios) the Twins had 9 straight first-round picks basically fail to amount to anything from 2009 through 2015 (Bashore, Wimmers, Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Bard, Stewart, Gordon, Jay). 

 

I also think you're deeply underselling the impact of prospects acquired via trade from the new front office. Devin Smeltzer was a difference-maker out of nowhere last year and the Twins got him for basically nothing. Luke Raley, added in the same deal, helped them complete the Maeda trade. Zack Littell is now a key bullpen fixture. Jake Cave is a proven big-leaguer and quality OF piece. The team is taking fringe talents (on the surface) and turning them into legitimately useful MLB assets. How often did that happen with the last regime? 

Other than the Odo trade, we haven't traded for one player who amassed 1 WAR in a season for us. We've let several players walk who have managed that with their new teams which is a mark against the new FO. The fact that you're happy with Smeltzer probably suggests you're still drinking the cool-aid a bit much. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Other than the Odo trade, we haven't traded for one player who amassed 1 WAR in a season for us. We've let several players walk who have managed that with their new teams which is a mark against the new FO. The fact that you're happy with Smeltzer probably suggests you're still drinking the cool-aid a bit much. 

 

They haven't been in a position to trade for MLB players until this year. Minor leaguers aren't going to get you any WAR.

 

Smeltzer does very little for me, but getting him as a throw in player and identifying him as a guy who can pitch in majors seemed to be a mark in the Pro column.

 

But regardless of development or drafting, the decisiveness when it comes to these young guys is absolutely a boon to the club. There's no more wasting roster spots for former prospects; much to our chagrin we lose guys unexpectedly like Gonsalves, Burdi, Chargois or Jay. Sorry Kohl Stewart. I wouldn't feel too comfortable if I was Nick Gordon, Fernando Romero or LaMonte Wade either, if we need a 40-man spot, it's time to sweat.

 

But even more so than not hanging on too long to busted prospects is how decisive they are with the pitching roles. Zack Litell, go to Rochester, you're a reliever now. There has been zero waffling on the roles of Rogers, May and Duffey from the second the new crew got here. To our dismay our high hopes for Romero becoming a front line starter evaporated without warning when they advertised he was moving to the pen last winter. It was going to happen again this winter with Graterol as well, the guy we were probably foolishly pinning our future ace hopes on. The criteria, tools and metrics they use to evaluate how to use these pitchers is vastly improved over the last group. You aren't going to get your full six years of control to show that you can improve the command, off-speed pitch or physical health needed to be a starter or stick with this club, and the roster is better and deeper because of it.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Other than the Odo trade, we haven't traded for one player who amassed 1 WAR in a season for us. We've let several players walk who have managed that with their new teams which is a mark against the new FO. The fact that you're happy with Smeltzer probably suggests you're still drinking the cool-aid a bit much. 

Drinking the kool-aid?? Smeltzer came over as a partial return for two (bad) months of Brian Dozier, and contributed a 3.86 ERA + 0.5 WAR in 50 innings as a rookie last year. I'm not sure why anyone would not be happy with that or view it as a big success.

 

Again, I'd love to hear examples of development success stories from the previous regime. How many prospects did they trade for that eventually turned into outstanding big-league contributors? To suggest the development group has "always been pretty good" runs contrary to all the reasons Minnesota struggled for six years and made a complete infrastructural overhaul, not to mention all the positive impacts we've seen since. 

[jkcarew]

 

It's a valid point but one big difference-maker is the advancements this organization has made in terms of development. Even if the talent isn't quite as strong on the surface, I feel much more confident in these guys reaching their potential.

Based on what? IMO, the jury is still very much out on this.

[gunnarthor]

 

Huh. This doesn't seem to be evidenced by reality. With the exception of 2012 (Buxton and Berrios) the Twins had 9 straight first-round picks basically fail to amount to anything from 2009 through 2015 (Bashore, Wimmers, Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Bard, Stewart, Gordon, Jay). 

 

I also think you're deeply underselling the impact of prospects acquired via trade from the new front office. Devin Smeltzer was a difference-maker out of nowhere last year and the Twins got him for basically nothing. Luke Raley, added in the same deal, helped them complete the Maeda trade. Zack Littell is now a key bullpen fixture. Jake Cave is a proven big-leaguer and quality OF piece. The team is taking fringe talents (on the surface) and turning them into legitimately useful MLB assets. How often did that happen with the last regime? 

I'm not sure how you can square the Dozier return after the FO held him a year too long and got tiddly for him and rate that as a win. Has the FO made even one trade as good as Liriano for Escobar? Had the old front office ever waived the white flag at the trade deadline?

 

From 2001 until 2017, the Ryan* system had 6 losing seasons (four in a row was the most at any one point but forgetting that the Twins were challenging for the playoffs in 2015 is pretty common malady. The total system failure of 16 is remembered but the total system failure of 18 is not) and won the central 6 times despite being handcuffed with ridiculous payroll constraints. The new FO inherited a extremely loaded and talented team and already had one 'total system failure' season. Last year the Twins had 18 players who managed 1 WAR or more, the new FO brought in 7 of those players. The inherited players were also much better - averaging nearly .5 WAR more per player.

 

Players that the previous regime traded for that became good is legion. The reason the Twins could move from one core to another core and still be competitive was because our development team did a great job. We have yet to see anything from the new FO that they will be able to replicate that. The fact that after three years and the #1 pick in the draft and two deadline sales we only received 3 top 100 prospects should be alarming.

 

* it's really not fair to call 08-11 part of the Ryan years but all the Ryan haters include it even though there were seismic changes made by Smith in the development staff that Ryan changed again in 2012.

[bird]

A bunch of randomness:

 

1. Agree with gunnarthor: a good not great pipeline. Importantly, many of the same talent evaluation eyes were on Duffey, Rosario, and Garver AND Littell, Rooker, and Jeffers. I have a fair amount of skepticism, despite the absolutely abysmal optics, when a litany of past failures (Wimmer through Jay, 2009-15) are attributed summarily to EITHER crappy talent evaluation OR bad development expertise. Some things are just plain gonna happen. Meaning yes, and no, to both functions, and to both the question of good or bad. It's complicated. For ALL clubs.

 

2. Kirilloff and Larnach, with picks #15 and #20? Kudos to the scouts. A majority of clubs will want to trade their own first round picks from those drafts retroactively in both cases.

 

3. Was development good or bad in the past? Nick and gunnathor, you're both wrong. . What's important, we all know, is how much better it really is today, especially compared to the competition. We know Falvey has convinced ownership to blow open the budget. They've added people, knowledge, processes, technology, and resources of every kind to the development endeavor. Results may be inconclusive so far, but it's almost inarguable that we aren't seeing a myriad of hints, if not proof, that development is happening now in ways it never has and up there with the best practices in the industry.

 

4. The trade record is mixed so far. Besides Graterol and Duran, we haven't traded away or acquired Top 100 prospects. Still, the system would be ranked a couple of slots higher with Diaz, Jaylen Davis, Berroa, Teng, Gil, etc. and one could argue that so far, the production of Cave, Littell, Smeltzer, etc. makes the record mediocre. But hey, I say "Falvey, stay active!" Because if you're drafting late, you better be excellent at getting value for your redundant major leaguers and optimizing trade opportunities. Otherwise, you'll go right back to the old pattern where the system goes from #3 to #22 in two years.

 

5. If this club is to sustain its current excellence at both levels, they HAVE to have a very high success rate with those middling first round picks like Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker. They HAVE to score with IFA prospects, so they need Emmanuel Rodriguez, Misael Urbina, Edwar Colina and Wander Javier types to ALSO pan out at a high rate. And they have to reel in a Jhoan Duran type frequently when they trade a proven MLB player.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I'm not sure how you can square the Dozier return after the FO held him a year too long and got tiddly for him and rate that as a win. Has the FO made even one trade as good as Liriano for Escobar? Had the old front office ever waived the white flag at the trade deadline?

You seem to have abandoned the original point here. We're talking about development, so their timing on a Dozier trade is not pertinent. What is pertinent is that they took the modest talent they got for him and turned it into something. 

 

The total system failure of 16 is remembered but the total system failure of 18 is not) and won the central 6 times despite being handcuffed with ridiculous payroll constraints. The new FO inherited a extremely loaded and talented team and already had one 'total system failure' season. Last year the Twins had 18 players who managed 1 WAR or more, the new FO brought in 7 of those players. The inherited players were also much better - averaging nearly .5 WAR more per player.

 

When you make a comment like "The total system failure of 16 is remembered but the total system failure of 18 is not" it's hard for me to believe you're being honest and objective in your evaluations. The Twins lost 103 games in 2016, the worst season in franchise history (post-relocation). They were 4 games below .500 in 2018. Not remotely comparable. 

 

The fact that the team is now succeeding with many players from the previous regime is exactly the point! We're talking about development here -- helping players realize their potential and reach new levels of performance.   

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The total system failure of 16 is remembered but the total system failure of 18 is not)

One team won 59 games. The other won 78 games.

 

Those aren't similar numbers.

[gunnarthor]

 

A bunch of randomness:

 

1. Agree with gunnarthor: a good not great pipeline. Importantly, many of the same talent evaluation eyes were on Duffey, Rosario, and Garver AND Littell, Rooker, and Jeffers. I have a fair amount of skepticism, despite the absolutely abysmal optics, when a litany of past failures (Wimmer through Jay, 2009-15) are attributed summarily to EITHER crappy talent evaluation OR bad development expertise. Some things are just plain gonna happen. Meaning yes, and no, to both functions, and to both the question of good or bad. It's complicated. For ALL clubs.

 

2. Kirilloff and Larnach, with picks #15 and #20? Kudos to the scouts. A majority of clubs will want to trade their own first round picks from those drafts retroactively in both cases.

 

3. Was development good or bad in the past? Nick and gunnathor, you're both wrong. . What's important, we all know, is how much better it really is today, especially compared to the competition. We know Falvey has convinced ownership to blow open the budget. They've added people, knowledge, processes, technology, and resources of every kind to the development endeavor. Results may be inconclusive so far, but it's almost inarguable that we aren't seeing a myriad of hints, if not proof, that development is happening now in ways it never has and up there with the best practices in the industry.

 

4. The trade record is mixed so far. Besides Graterol and Duran, we haven't traded away or acquired Top 100 prospects. Still, the system would be ranked a couple of slots higher with Diaz, Jaylen Davis, Berroa, Teng, Gil, etc. and one could argue that so far, the production of Cave, Littell, Smeltzer, etc. makes the record mediocre. But hey, I say "Falvey, stay active!" Because if you're drafting late, you better be excellent at getting value for your redundant major leaguers and optimizing trade opportunities. Otherwise, you'll go right back to the old pattern where the system goes from #3 to #22 in two years.

 

5. If this club is to sustain its current excellence at both levels, they HAVE to have a very high success rate with those middling first round picks like Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker. They HAVE to score with IFA prospects, so they need Emmanuel Rodriguez, Misael Urbina, Edwar Colina and Wander Javier types to ALSO pan out at a high rate. And they have to reel in a Jhoan Duran type frequently when they trade a proven MLB player.

Dude, if you're going to be all rational and intelligent and stuff maybe you shouldn't post on TD!

 

[Dman]

 

. 

 

The Twins development group has always been good and I expect it to remain good but I'm not as convinced that our FO is as capable of identifying talent or at least some talent. Again, I'm way more confident of our hitters abilities than our pitching group. 

 

I can agree with many of the things you said but the development piece just doesn't ring true for me.  The Twins of the last ten years had a lot of trouble and I mean a lot of trouble developing pitchers.  From FA's to trades to draft pick failures to guys like Liriano and Worely who suddenly got back on track with the Pirates. The Twins never did much to develop a pitching staff.

 

I guess there was some success with Berrios and Gibson but that's about it over the last ten years or so.  They never traded for a pitcher as good as Odo and never had a good FA pitcher signing unless you want to include the one good year of Phil Hughes.  They didn't really do much better developing bullpen arms.  If you look back pitcher development looks like a black hole IMO. (Edit-Oops forgot about Santana as a FA signing that was a good one.)

 

With the new front office suddenly bullpen pitchers that were doing OK are starting to look elite I am looking at Rogers, Duffy, May, Littel, Stashak, even Harper who they got rid of after they helped him ride his best pitch to success.  Nobodys like Dobnak, Smeltzer and Poppen are suddenly viable arms and in the minors I have never been more excited bout the pitching prospects we have down on the farm.  It seems like they are getting every ounce out of every arm adding velocity and focusing on secondaries that work best for that specific pitcher.  I never saw anything like it ever with the old staff, ever.

 

As far as the coaches they have hired to help develop the players I have never seen the Twins coaching staff raided as badly as this year.  In fact when has anyone raided our coaching staff in the past?  I mean even the Yankees went out and grabbed our catching coordinator.  The Yankees.  Think about that for a minute.

 

This FO has only been going at this for three years and while I agree they were given a lot of talent to get started they maximized that talent into the second best season in Twins history.  I fail to see how that makes them bad at player development or even the same as the old group.  The old group never approached a season like last year. Yeah they didn't pick some of the players but IMO these players wouldn't be as successful without the coaching and tools this FO gave them.  

 

I could go on and on about the changes but my main point has been made.  This FO is light years ahead when it comes to development.  It really isn't even close if you are willing to look at it objectively.

[Riverbrian]

 

 Has the FO made even one trade as good as Liriano for Escobar? 

 

 

 

You got to admit that the benefit of time is being granted to only side here. 

 

Escobar was a traditional backup who got playing time because players like Florimon, Danny Santana, Aaron Hicks ETC, died in front of him. We are talking about named starters that were so bad that they had no choice but to turn to the utility backup Escobar. 

 

The Twins never knew what they had in Escobar. If they knew what they had, they wouldn't have placed Florimon, Danny Santana and everybody else consistently in front of him. 

 

Escobar wasn't even the chosen starter during his break out season 5 years later in 2018. 

 

Gardenhire and Molitor both viewed Escobar as utility backup throughout his entire tenure with the club.

 

Escobar took more time to establish value than the Falvey and Lavine have been in office. 

[gunnarthor]

 

You got to admit that the benefit of time is being granted to only side here. 

 

Escobar was a traditional backup who got playing time because players like Florimon, Danny Santana, Aaron Hicks ETC, died in front of him. We are talking about named starters that were so bad that they had no choice but to turn to the utility backup Escobar. 

 

The Twins never knew what they had in Escobar. If they knew what they had, they wouldn't have placed Florimon, Danny Santana and everybody else consistently in front of him. 

 

Escobar wasn't even the chosen starter during his break out season 5 years later in 2018. 

 

Gardenhire and Molitor both viewed Escobar as utility backup throughout his entire tenure with the club.

 

Escobar took more time to establish value than the Falvey and Lavine have been in office. 

Part of that is true - I even mentioned that it was too early to grade trades. But the Twins got Escobar in his age 23 season. He didn't play much during his age 24 season (I believe he had a somewhat serious injury as well) but in 2014 at age 25 he was our primary shortstop, starting more games at short than Nunez, Floriman and Santana combined. He was fifth on the team in PA. And he was already showing a strong bat - posting a 102 OPS+ and amassing 2.5 WAR. He followed that up with another 2 WAR season in 2015 although it is true that Molly in his first season as manager wanted Escobar in the utility role, giving Santana the start of the season to be his primary shortstop. Escobar still ended up starting more games at short. He started 2016 as our primary shortstop but that was his worst season as a Twin (posting a negative WAR) and Nunez pushed him out. He started 2017 behind Polanco as Molly's main utility guy again but took over thirdbase and put in another nearly 2 WAR season and again showed a solid bat. 2018 he was our opening day shortstop again and took over third with another Sano injury, and managed about a 3.5 WAR season split between us and Arizona.

 

So I'm not sure it's fair to say the Twins held him back under Gardy and Molly - He was the opening day starter at short several times and his bat was strong from the get-go. He was certainly established as a quality MLer after one full season with us.

[etwink]

I’m not sure if Nick was being ironic or purposely had three pitchers as the picture for the article.  Either way, this team’s long-term success will sink or swim based on its ability to translate starting pitching prospects into solid major leaguers.

 

You can cast your eyes around the roster and see young guys who (for better or worse) will be with us for years.  The OF is so locked in that we will have to trade talent just to open up the roster for Larnach or Kirilloff.  The IF is completely blocked either with long-term contracts and stud players, so there is currently no room for #1 prospect Lewis at the moment.  Catching could be viewed as an organisational weakness, but you really only need two out of Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt.  Anyone extra can be stashed in the DH spot once “Father Time” retires.  Finally, the bullpen is brimming with current talent and young flame-throwing options.

 

But....then you stop on the starting pitching and you see a bunch of “hopefuls” on 1-year, make-good contracts, a couple mid-level guys on multi-year contracts, our best guy not locked up long-term, and (if I want to be unfairly pessimistic) a bunch of young #5 starter options.  Then you go to the minors.....and you see promise, and all you can do is hope for the best!!  You just can’t assume that minor league pitching results will translate, to the same degree that you can with hitters.  For every “can’t miss” hitting prospect like Billy Beane who fails (just look up his stats...or watch MoneyBall), there are dozens of pitching prospects who never figure it out.  Pitchers are just funny that way.

 

Given the price of starting pitching, the Twins’ talent development organisation will make or break this team’s promise.  We’ll either be shelling out $15M/year on a succession of #3 guys just to keep up with the hitters, a la Gardy’s best teams, or we’ll translate all of this talent into cheap, long-term viability and then we’re talking World Series for years to come.

 

Flip my entire comment on its head and you really, really have to like this team - now and in the future.  It’s going to be fun to be a Twins fan!!