Ranking Prospects: Proximity Versus Upside, Man Against Machine, and What It Means for the Minnesota Twins

[Patrick Wozniak]

One of the difficulties in ranking prospects is considering how much to weigh a younger player’s future based on upside verses proximity to the majors. FanGraphs recently released two top-100 lists, Eric Longenhagen’s, which is a more traditional scouting-based list, and Dan Szymborski’s, based on ZiPS projections, which puts more emphasis on performance.The two lists create an interesting juxtaposition, as Longenhagen’s list tends to favor the younger, high-upside prospects, while the ZiPS projection-based list favors not only prior performance, but proximity to the majors as well. 74 players appear on both lists, and they agree on three of the top-four prospects, but there is quite a bit of variation in the rankings. Luckily for us Twins fans, Minnesota’s farm system is stacked with prospects who fit both descriptions, so let’s compare the lists and see what it means for us.

 

First Longenhagen’s top-100:

 

Download attachment: FanGraph Top 100 chart photo.png

 

It’s hard to argue with the names included, though one could definitely quibble with the ordering. Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff will forever be linked as left-handed hitting bat-first corner outfield prospects (though Kirilloff may well end up at first), but it is generally Kirilloff who has been ranked higher. Royce Lewis comes in first, which is to be expected, and his 13^th overall rating is certainly encouraging. Again, you could arguably flip Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic, but they were also Twins Daily’s fourth and fifth ranked prospects and it’s nice to see them both in the top 100. Finally, although he’s obviously no longer in the organization, Brusdar Graterol fell all the way to 113 on this list. As this list was released after the trade, it’s hard not to wonder if the Twins plan to keep him in the ‘pen and the Boston medical fiasco hurt his ranking.

 

Now, for some projection-based madness:

 

Download attachment: ZiPS Top 100 chart photo.png

 

The first thing you probably noticed is the ominous omission of both Kirilloff and Larnach. I found this perplexing as they seem to fit the good results/close proximity to the majors narrative that the ZiPS projections are supposed to favor. Fortunately, Szymborski specifically addressed this is the comment section, saying ZiPS is harder on those lower on the defensive spectrum, hated Kirilloff’s 2019 (due to injury and not hitting enough for corner OF/1B) and didn’t like Larnach due to his lack of power.

 

Before we all go out and start bashing computers, I should point out that according to Szymborski, based on 2014 rankings (ZiPS first top-100 list), ZiPS’s list has combined for 592.2 WAR, more than FanGraphs (563.7), Keith Law (553.8), and MLB Pipeline (448.9).

 

Royce Lewis also isn’t as well-loved by ZiPS, but considering his disappointing numbers in 2019, it could be taken as a sign of encouragement that he still makes the top-100 in the more number-driven system.

 

After getting over the exclusion of the aforementioned outfield duo, the next big surprise is that both catcher Ryan Jeffers and starter Lewis Thorpe make the list. Jeffers has gained a lot of helium and was up to number seven on the Twins Daily list (sixth without Graterol), but this is certainly the first list that includes him in the top 100. On the one hand, Jeffers’s improvement in the area of pitch framing and overall defense would seem to favor him more on traditional, scouting-based lists, but his proficiency with the bat as a catcher, and the fact that he reached and played well at AA in 2019, undoubtably boosted his projections.

 

Although it’s mildly surprising to see Lewis Thorpe ranked so high, he seems to best fit the ZiPS-type profile. At one time he was more the high-upside prospect you would dream on, but his consistent results, high strikeout rates, and proximity to the majors (where of course he’s already pitched) make him very projectable as well. He’s a perfect case of a prospect who may actually lose some of their prospect shimmer by having already debuted. It’s easy to see his 6.18 ERA in Minnesota (27.2 IP) and come away unimpressed, but his 3.47 FIP paints a brighter picture (and projection).

 

ZiPS keeps the surprises coming with the most aggressive Jordan Balazovic ranking you’ll find anywhere, who at 24 is the top Twins prospect (Interestingly, Duran doesn’t make the cut). Though unexpected, the aggressive ranking is not unfounded as Balazovic seems a safe bet to remain a starter and is arguably Minnesota’s top pitching prospect. If he continues to pitch as he has and builds innings in 2020, ZiPS won’t be alone in ranking Balazovic so favorably.

 

Finally, had he stayed in Minnesota, Brusdar Graterol would’ve rounded out the ZiPS top-five. The ZiPS ranking is closer to where he sits on most top-100 lists, and it makes sense that ZiPS might be higher on Graterol by being unaware of his projected 2020 bullpen role.

 

What do you think of the lists? Do you lean more towards upside and high ceiling or proximity and a solid floor? Finally, is a projection system like ZiPS worthwhile for ranking prospects?

 

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[mikelink45]

Nicely done.  I have no arguments about Kiriloff and Larnach - I do not see how they fit in the roster plans.  I guess one will replace Rosario when he gets too expensive, but 1B is now Sano and I do not see putting Sano at DH in place of Cruz any time soon.  Balazovic is a worthwhile number one for me since I see him in the 2021 rotation.  Lewis has fallen in my eyes and I am not sure where he squeezes into the roster in the next two years unless someone is traded. 

 

I would love to see Thorpe prove them right - I still dream of a home grown pitching staff.

[Dman]

Numbers, numbers, numbers.  I guess those cold hard numbers rule the world.  I know I follow them when evaluating players.  I guess the thing I always wonder about is can the numbers really see a breakout happening.  It seems like human evaluation would be better able to see a player breaking out before the numbers do.  

 

At any rate this was an eye opening article as the numbers had prospects in a very different order than the experts.  With the added WAR calc we get to see that ZIPS (just following the cold hard numbers) does not get as deluded or caught up in potential as does human evaluation.

 

 

I am, however going to spit in ZIPS eye and say that they still can't predict at draft time who will be a successful MLB baseball player.  There I said it numbers have their limits.

 

[howieramone2]

Careful Dman. Members have been banned for less.

[saviking]

Kirilloff had an injury plagued year. I have no concerns about him whatsoever. 

[4twinsJA]

Not much else to do in offseason but analyze numbers, make rankings and predictions. To be honest, I am tiring of it also. Looking forward to seeing players on field, making my first trip to spring training in a couple of weeks.

[etwink]

This is a fascinating subject and a concept that has caused me to scratch my head for years.  In fact I can recall reading the Strib in the mid 80s and seeing Sid Hartman plug guys “who were burning up the minors” and were soon to be in the majors....only for them to never make it!  Now this probably highlights more the poor minor league system that the Twins had at the time, and how much of an insufferable homer Sid was.

 

with that in mind, it’s always bothered me that talent evaluators get weak in the knees for a snot-nosed kid who can’t walk and chew gum at the same time, but destroy a guy in the high minors because they aren’t a Cy Young candidate (hello Brusdar Graterol?).  I get that people draft on promise, but it’s maddening to see people who have accomplished very little get ranked higher than someone who has shown a thing or two.

 

There had to be a balance, so that we can find the diamonds in the rough, and at the same time not over-value “our guys” and just see them wilt in AAA rather than trading one or two when their value is still relatively high.

[old nurse]

You can't blame a computer for a projection. The computer is only as smart as the programmer and user are.

[TL]

Nicely done.  I have no arguments about Kiriloff and Larnach - I do not see how they fit in the roster plans. 

 

Seems like kind of the perfect situation to me. One or both of Rosario and Cruz is gone by 2021 and both for sure by 2022. Between Sano, Kiriloff, and Larnach you have guys for 1B, LF and DH. Kiriloff being the one to spell both Larnach and Sano in the field while getting time at DH. He can also give Kepler a day off periodically.

[jkcarew]

"...saying ZiPS is harder on those lower on the defensive spectrum, hated Kirilloff’s 2019 (due to injury and not hitting enough for corner OF/1B) and didn’t like Larnach due to his lack of power."

 

Over half of Larnach's minor-league plate appearances have been in the FSL with Fort Myers. His small sample-power at Pensacola last year was the same as was Jeffers'. Jeffers is getting a big premium here for projecting as a catcher. We'll see.

 

Interestingly, Blankenhorn's power numbers at Pensacola last year were better than both Jeffers and Larnach...and at the same age. 

 

And I agree that there was really not much in Kirilloff's 2019 numbers at Pensacola that scream "knocking on door". But he's also a year younger than the others (and having missed one entire year of development).

[gunnarthor]

I think all the lists are helpful and it's better to use them instead of relying on just one. Guys like Balazovic and Thorpe don't have Duran's ceiling but both could be solid ML starters in this era. That's a really good prospect. It's also worth remembering that a numarical list is going to have flaws and it's better to look at the players in tiers. Fangraphs and pipeline try to do this more with FV grades. I suspect if Zips and fangraphs both went to 200, their results would have a lot more overlap.