2019 DRAFT IN REVIEW

[bunsen82]

I have found myself really going through the last years draft and have become very impressed with the strategy and appreciate it more that I did when the draft occurred. 

 

 

We have a had a few months to acquaint ourselves with some of the players and see some performances.  This is a developmental draft by far, and the performance of Cavaco is going to determine a lot how good of a draft 2019 was.  Even still I really think the Twins are on to something with their draft style, get a lot of hitters in the first 6-7 rounds, a pitcher or two sprinkled in, and then draft pitchers in the rest of the early to mid rounds, that 1st have good body types and at least 1 good pitch and the rest can be trained or learned.  Also they are willing to draft injured players. 

 

For example, in a redraft Cody Laweryson would likely be drafted in the first 5 rounds now.  He really is well put together and has extremely good stuff at the lower levels, but his stuff looks very projectable to me.  If both Canterino and Laweryson pan out, along with a reliever like Dylan Thomas, this draft on the pitching side looks very good, and that doesn't include all the other pitchers drafted that really have a chance at succeeding. 

 

Regarding the bats the upside is very very good.

 

Cavaco and Holland both have very high ceilings, whether the bat tools get there is questionable. 

 

Wallner is very projectable and appears to be at worst a solid mlb bad. 

 

Steer, Gray, Prato and Julien all look like they have the potential to be middle infielders or 3rd baseman. 

 

It would not surprise me at all if 6 of the players drafted make the big leagues with the possibility of a couple players if they hit being truly elite.  

 

Its going to take a few more years, but with some time removed and getting ready for spring training I am anticipating to see how some of the players perform this year.

[gunnarthor]

It's way too early to grade this draft but I agree, there is some upside in it. Especially those two Auburn infielders. 

 

I wasn't sold on the Cavaco pick and was a bit underwhelmed on Wallner and Canterino but some of the other picks look encouraging - Steer looked pretty good even in A ball. 

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/twins-spencer-steer-trying-to-break-from-the-pack/

 

It's worth looking back on drafts. The 2012 and the 2016 drafts are going to be particularly strong for us, I think. 

[Monkeypaws]

 

It's way too early to grade this draft but I agree, there is some upside in it. Especially those two Auburn infielders. 

 

I wasn't sold on the Cavaco pick and was a bit underwhelmed on Wallner and Canterino but some of the other picks look encouraging - Steer looked pretty good even in A ball. 

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/twins-spencer-steer-trying-to-break-from-the-pack/

 

It's worth looking back on drafts. The 2012 and the 2016 drafts are going to be particularly strong for us, I think. 

2012 for sure - 20+ WAR and counting

 

2018 is also trending pretty well.

 

We sound like wine snobs

[bird]

The Twins signed 17 college pitchers, all but one in the mid to late rounds in the 2019 draft. That's a really big number. I'm not sure we can say this will be an ongoing strategy, but it hints at a conviction in their ability to develop pitching. Or maybe at a realization that you gotta keep throwing lots of stuff at the wall hoping it sticks. Probably both.

[Dman]

I didn't like the Cavaceo signing mainly because his hit tool was very suspect.  I have seen too many 5 tool players with suspect hit tools fail. Sometimes they make it as defensive first players but they never make much of a dent offensively.  While Wallner has lots of power his hit tool is slightly below average as well and I would have preferred they take a pitcher in that spot but they didn't.  Why take guys with less than desirable hit tools that early?

 

I really like it when they pick guys like Larnach and Kirilloff.  Guys that have good hit tools from the get go.  There is much less risk involved in them making it all the way to MLB.  So why the change in philosophy? 

 

After seeing the FO's preference for guys who hit the ball hard I started looking more at Exit velocity and hard hit rate.  Turns out hard hit rate gives the batter a distinct advantage over the pitcher and the defense.  The stats below show why hard hit appears to be so important to our new FO.  Batting average improves dramatically as does slugging when you hit the ball hard.

 

Hard-hit balls
.524 BA, 1.047 SLG, .653 wOBA

Weakly hit balls
.219 BA, .259 SLG, .206 wOBA

 

Short story long I guess that is why the FO is so enamored with guys with powerful swings.  Even if they miss the ball more, when they do hit it, very good things happen.  How much average can you be willing to sacrifice for slugging?  I don't know the answer but I would guess instead of guy who hit around 300 you could have a guy hit around 250 with a good hard hit rate and you might still come out ahead.

 

These guys still need to have a decent eye at the plate or they will never make it but some of that can be taught.  There is still launch angle and the ability to barrel balls to consider as well but a powerful swing is the catalyst required to make it all work.  

 

I am still struggling with the new philosophy and only time will tell if the guys they are picking can hit and lay off pitches enough to succeed, but I think that is the direction they are going whether I like it or not.

 

Hard hit rate is not the be all end all either as guys with good average and OBP can be almost as valuable but those players are rare as well and getting someone who can put it all together ala Mookie Betts or Mike trout is even more rare.  Here's to hoping the guys they picked work out.

[4twinsJA]

The FO is really into analytics. I am sure more data available for college players than HS, also college data is against higher level of completion. 20-21 year olds more projectable than 17-18 year olds. Maybe this is part of why they have drafted more college players.

[Dman]

 

It's way too early to grade this draft but I agree, there is some upside in it. Especially those two Auburn infielders. 

 

 

 

I am with you on Holland and Julien.  I mean Holland was slated as a late 1st round draft pick.  Good speed, but his hit tool went missing.  I know having a suspect hit tool is a big risk but getting a guy like that in the 5th round I think is worth the risk.   If the hit tool picks up (not likely) he could be a 5 tool player. I don't expect him to get off to a great start in cold Cedar Rapids but if he heats up with the weather that could end up being a really good pick.

 

Julien is also an intriguing bat and he fits right in with the Twins philosophy of grabbing guys that hit the ball hard.  He was a name that was in the top 200 and we got him in the 18th round.  Again that is an incredible value for the risk.  Granted the Twins had to find another $400,000 to sign him but likely money well spent even he does project as a DH.

 

I will be watching both of those guys closely to see if we got a little lucky for a change.

[Jimv]

 

2012 for sure - 20+ WAR and counting

 

2018 is also trending pretty well.

 

We sound like wine snobs

 

I know a lot of wine snobs.  You're much more interesting than true wine snobs.   

 

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

hit tool

[bunsen82]

Alright this appears to be as a good of time as any to bring this post back up.  2 years later here is where we stand.  The top 50 prospects of the twins is absolutely littered with this draft.  

Prospects

#8 Canterino  (2nd round)  has all the talent needs to stay healthy

#12 spencer Steer (3rd round)  very very solid prospect

#14 Cavaco  (1st round)  may have been more hurt by Covid than any other player,  he is looking much improved growing into his body (however other SS prospects have done better) 

#16 Wallner (CB-A)  This is a well know pick.  Very good bat tool,  needs to move faster through the system. 

#29 Varland (15th round)   - honestly this is low in my mind - Varland has the talent to be a #1 to #3 pitcher.  Very interested in how he does this year. 

#31 Julien (18th round) -   He is playing very well.  Appears to have a shot at making the league if he continues to improve.  

#36 Sawyer gipson-long (6th round)  -  has the talent,  needs to remain consistent

#37 Cody laweryson (14th round) - another pitcher with talent  likely even slightly more than long in my mind.  

#41 Will Holland (5th round) -  hit tool is struggling but the talent is still there

#47 Ben Gross (round 10)  -  just a solid pitcher in the minors, likely doesn't have the stuff to make the big leagues

This excludes 5 other players Mooney, Prato, Legumina, Thomas and Isola.  Prato I think can still continue to improve and be a player down the road.  Injuries have hampered Mooney and Thomas.  Mooney did very well last year on limited innings.  Both Mooney and Thomas if they play have the talent to move up the rankings.  

2022 Will be a pivotal year for a lot of these players but this 2019 is well on track to be one of the best drafts in recent memory for the Twins.  

 

Edited April 3, 2022 by bunsen82
wanted to add another player.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Alright this appears to be as a good of time as any to bring this post back up.  2 years later here is where we stand.  The top 50 prospects of the twins is absolutely littered with this draft.  

Prospects

#8 Canterino  (2nd round)  has all the talent needs to stay healthy

#12 spencer Steer (3rd round)  very very solid prospect

#14 Cavaco  (1st round)  may have been more hurt by Covid than any other player,  he is looking much improved growing into his body (however other SS prospects have done better) 

#16 Wallner (CB-A)  This is a well know pick.  Very good bat tool,  needs to move faster through the system. 

#29 Varland (15th round)   - honestly this is low in my mind - Varland has the talent to be a #1 to #3 pitcher.  Very interested in how he does this year. 

#31 Julien (18th round) -   He is playing very well.  Appears to have a shot at making the league if he continues to improve.  

#36 Sawyer gipson-long (6th round)  -  has the talent,  needs to remain consistent

#37 Cody laweryson (14th round) - another pitcher with talent  likely even slightly more than long in my mind.  

#41 Will Holland (5th round) -  hit tool is struggling but the talent is still there

#47 Ben Gross (round 10)  -  just a solid pitcher in the minors, likely doesn't have the stuff to make the big leagues

This excludes 5 other players Mooney, Prato, Legumina, Thomas and Isola.  Prato I think can still continue to improve and be a player down the road.  Injuries have hampered Mooney and Thomas.  Mooney did very well last year on limited innings.  Both Mooney and Thomas if they play have the talent to move up the rankings.  

2022 Will be a pivotal year for a lot of these players but this 2019 is well on track to be one of the best drafts in recent memory for the Twins.  

 

It is a nice list and the Twins got a little lucky with Holland and Julien falling.  Also getting Diamonds in the rough with later picks Varland, Laweryson and Mooney didn't hurt either and to top it off they had a 1st round supplemental pick in there as well.  I will say it looks like a good group though.

The harder part is going to be finding 40 man spots for all of these guys at the end of this year.  They can't protect all those guys so hopefully they pick the right ones.

[bunsen82]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

It is a nice list and the Twins got a little lucky with Holland and Julien falling.  Also getting Diamonds in the rough with later picks Varland, Laweryson and Mooney didn't hurt either and to top it off they had a 1st round supplemental pick in there as well.  I will say it looks like a good group though.

The harder part is going to be finding 40 man spots for all of these guys at the end of this year.  They can't protect all those guys so hopefully they pick the right ones.

It looks like the twins did very well on scouting the pitchers in this draft.  The 2019 draft was known as one of the worst pitching classes in almost a decade.  The fact that they found 4 legit pitching prospects,  with possibly 1-2 more is outstanding.  Yes the rule 5 draft is looming,  but honestly I think Canterino is on the big league team by the end of the year.  That will leave Steer, Cavaco, Walner, Varland and Julien as likely needing protection.  The lower players could also move into this tier and some of these players may fall out.  The Twins can find spots for these players or potentially use these players or others on the 40 man as trade chips.  This will definitely need to be managed but the fact that we are at this point is awefully good.  The 2019 draft was one that left many scratching their heads.  It looks much better today than it did at the time.  

[gunnarthor]

I'm a bit down on this class then I was a few years ago but it still has time. Agreed that COVID was a real problem. Hopefully they all do well.

[bunsen82]

Here is what I am seeing after 2 months

Prospects that look like major league  talent

1. Canterino  (has the most talent of this class,  just needs to stay healthy)

2. Steer   (continues to do well) 

3. Varland   (talent has stepped up at AA,  but still showing strong stuff)

4. Headrick  (his talent is really starting to pop - is having similar stats to Varland from last year in high A)

5. Isola  (looks like at minimum a back up catcher)

 

Need improvement but have talent for MLB 

6. Julien (elite eye at the plate)

7. Wallner (legit mlb power)

 

Most likely Minor leaguers but could flash

7. Laweryson (has flashed)

8. Gipson Long

9. Mooney  (one with the most likely chance to significantly move up in my opinion from this group)

10. Prato

11. Holland (one I am still keeping my eye on,  bat is improving has potential to be a utility player)  

12. Gross

13. Gray

14.  Cavaco   (Looks lost based on his stats in low A ball)   

15. Legumina

 

[2wins87]

I've been doing a bit of reviewing of this front office's drafts lately. I think 2019 looks like one of their worse drafts at the top, but could be one of the better in terms of depth.

Cavaco is definitely looking like a reach now, I'm still not sold on Wallner's success translating to the majors (see Brent Rooker), and Canterino has yet to pitch more than 25 innings in a professional season due to injuries after coming out of the most notorious school for overworking college pitchers.  If Canterino is finally able to stay healthy he could salvage it a bit, but there is a high likelihood he'll be a reliever due to his injury history.  I also won't write off Wallner as long as he continues to produce despite the Ks.

On the other hand, Steer looks like a future major leaguer.  Isola also looks like he should hit plenty for a catcher, though I'm not as sure about his defense there.  Varland has been a great development, though also with some reliever risk.  I'd put Mooney, Gipson-Long, and Headrick in a similar tier.  They will keep working their way up as starters but could find an easier path the the majors eventually as a reliever.

There will be some tough decisions on the college guys and the 40-man this offseason.  I would think Canterino, Wallner, Steer, and Varland would basically be locks.  The other pitchers that they have worked so hard to develop from mid round picks could be relief stash targets for another organization, so they will have to do some good internal scouting this year.