The 5 Most Notable Twins Free Agents After the Season

[Cooper Carlson]

The offseason is coming to an end so naturally I will be looking ahead to next offseason today. The Twins don't have too many players coming off the books, but three of the most expensive players will be. Come find out who could be leaving Minnesota after 2020.Honorable mentions: Alex Avila, Ehire Adrianza, Tyler Clippard,

 

5. Trevor May, RP, Age 30

 

May has spent his entire major league career in Minnesota since he was called up in 2014. He began as a starter but once he became a reliever things started to click. 2019 was his first full season since 2016 after Tommy John surgery and it was a great year for May. He had a 2.94 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 29.7 K% and he will play another big role in 2020. His contract expires after this season so this could be the last season Twins fans see May in Minnesota.

 

4. Rich Hill/Homer Bailey, SP, Age 41/33

 

I’m pairing these two together because they were both signed for just one season this offseason and we don’t know how much they will contribute. Rich Hill is 41 years old and Homer Bailey is 33 but he has been really bad for a while. The upside for Hill is ace level stuff for half a season and Bailey could contribute number two or three pitcher numbers if everything goes right. They could both also fall short of expectations due to injury with Hill or due to just not being good at baseball for Bailey. With both contracts expiring, I don’t expect either to be back next season.

 

3. Marwin Gonzalez: UTIL, Age 30

 

All the talk surrounding Gonzalez right now is about the cheating scandal when he was with the Astros. Luckily he was the first player to apologize that actually benefited from the cheating which will hopefully put it behind him so we can focus on 2020. He is still the ultimate utility man who will play every day but rarely plays the same position twice in a row. The bat dropped off a bit early last season but he was just fine most of the season. I wouldn’t expect the Twins to bring him back with guys like Nick Gordon pushing for an opportunity.

 

2. Nelson Cruz, DH, Age 39

 

Cruz has been rumored to be in extension talks with the Twins even though he is nearly 40 years old. The way this man ages will forever be a mystery to the rest of the baseball world, so I’m not complaining. I expect Cruz to have another very productive season in the middle of the best lineup in baseball. His impact off the field has been just as large as his impact on the field, so even if he drops off he still has a lot of value. I would bet on Cruz receiving an extension for another year or two.

 

1. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Age 29

 

Odorizzi is coming off his first all-star season in 2019 and the Twins have him back on the qualifying offer for 2020. It is probably a good thing he didn’t test the market after seeing the money everyone else got. Odorizzi could possibly get the most money out of any starting pitcher free agent next offseason without the qualifying offer attached so it will be tough for the Twins to bring him back. I’m not sure if I expect him to be back because it will depend completely on how he performs this season. Hopefully he can rack up a few playoff wins to add to his value.

 

The Twins overall won’t have too many impact players to bring back but hopefully they can lock up a couple of these guys. Who do you hope the Twins keep? Comment below!

 

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[D.C Twins]

I think May further develops as an elite bullpen arm while there is regression for all the others (or not even pitching like Hill).

 

We'll end up missing May the most if we don't keep him.

[rdehring]

May and Odorizzi are a MUST for me.  Hopefully, one or both will be extended by the end of spring training.

 

If Cruz has another good year, would think it makes sense to go year-to-year with him with a one year contract at the end of the season.

[High heat]

I think the only one who might be coming back is Cruz. 

 

Odorizzi is going to get grossly over paid. 

 

Rich Hill at 41 is in his final go round.

 

Bailey will either pitch well and get paid, or will bomb and be someone elses minor league signing.

 

Gonzalez is a very valuable utility guy who you can plug and play without losing much.  Which is a very nice luxury.  I think he will move on after 20 with cheap options in the system.

 

May will either have a solid year and be paid well, or he struggles with injury or poor performance and the Twins move on to a younger cheaper piece,

[Brandon]

Cruz and May are important moving forward. We have lots of young starters who should be ready for opportunities by next season.

[bighat]

Trevor May has honestly had ONE nice season in Minnesota. Just one! And I, along with every other Twins fan, is thrilled at his new found success.

 

That said, before last year his career ERA was over 5.00. I know he's good now, I like him in our bullpen, and he's also a cool guy who plays video games....still, I've never understood why he's been treated like the next coming of Roger Clemens with Twins fans. Again, I like the kid too and I hope the Twins can keep him, but I think there will be other middle relievers to sign if the Twins lose him. 

 

I'd be much more concerned about losing Cruz and the 35+ HR he'll be good for in 2021. Homers like that don't grow on trees. Would like to see the Twins extend the guy in Spring Training for an extra year.

[howieramone2]

Agree. May can be replaced internally if need be. Hoping Cruz earns a 1 year extension. Ìf he has another solid year, I like Odorizzi for 3 years at 75M.

[TwinsFan268]

I HOPE THE TWINS KEEP ODORIZZI & CRUZ BECAUSE THEY ARE 2 OF MY FAVORITE PLAYERS.

[LewFordLives]

I worry that Odorizzi could be the next Phil Hughes. Hughes found success when he started throwing that high cut fastball past hitters, similar to Odorizzi. When Hughes lost a couple mph on that fastball the party was over. I hope I'm wrong, but the bottom line is I would be wary about getting stuck in a big long term deal with Odorizzi.

[mikelink45]

The Cruz extension should be one year and only after we see how he does this year, or we can be creative and sign him as a playing coach since we value his locker room presence.  Based on the Athletic article about Beltran yesterday, we seem to have gotten the much better locker room leader.  Both were strong leaders, but Beltran took their train off the rails. 

[Darius]

Cruz will be with the Twins in some capacity beyond the upcoming year. He’ll probably keep playing and be able to perform.

 

May is going to have a big year and be highly sought after. As you mentioned, he’s probably gone.

 

Not concerned about Hill in any way.

 

Bailey might be a sneaky one here. If he puts together a solid year he may be in line for a nice short-term deal. That’ll be an interesting one to follow.

 

I don’t know what to think of Odorizzi at this point. His history is so up and down that I could easily see him regressing.

[bighat]

 

The Cruz extension should be one year and only after we see how he does this year, or we can be creative and sign him as a playing coach since we value his locker room presence.  Based on the Athletic article about Beltran yesterday, we seem to have gotten the much better locker room leader.  Both were strong leaders, but Beltran took their train off the rails. 

I dunno.

 

Cruz and his reckless afternoon naps could bring on a mutiny in the locker room!

[Dantes929]

No way do you sign an extension for Cruz.   Closest comp is Thome.   He looked just as super human at 39.  Was pretty good at 40 and marginal at 41.    You see how this year goes and offer him market value if you want him back.   Don't extend but maybe resign.   Odo is gone but we;ll have Berrios, PIneada and Maeda.   If we don't have two great internal options by then it will be quite depressing.

[Aerodeliria]

No way do you sign an extension for Cruz.   Closest comp is Thome.   He looked just as super human at 39.  Was pretty good at 40 and marginal at 41.    You see how this year goes and offer him market value if you want him back.   Don't extend but maybe resign.   Odo is gone but we;ll have Berrios, PIneada and Maeda.   If we don't have two great internal options by then it will be quite depressing.

True.

[howieramone2]

Get ready to be quite depressed. We won't have 2 great internal options until 2022.

[Doctor Gast]

May has found himself, bring him back

Cruz, keep him as long as possible

Odorizzi hope the best for him & he stays

Gonzalez, if Gordon is our best replacement we have to keep him but I believe Astudillo & Lewis will find themselves when that happens Gonzalez is gone

Hill, is a crap shoot hope to get something from him come this Oct. that`s it

Bailey. waste of time & $.

 

[Shaitan]

I could see all 5 leaving.

 

-Hill/Bailey are the types of pitchers you sign to 1 year deals in each year's FA market.

-May has been inconsistent from year to year. Those are the players I don't lock down.

-Cruz is too old to predict, though I could see him coming back on year-to-year deals.

-Marwin is valuable, but Arraez, or perhaps Adrianza, Gordon or Blankenhorn take his role.

-Odorizzi. We'll know what pitcher he is by the All-Star break. Extend him then or he walks because of cost. Plus, I suspect taking the QO means he's excited to test the market next year.

[Seansy]

If we could keep May, Odo, and Cruz on reasonable extensions I would.

 

Maybe add a team option to Cruz's contract with a 1-2 million buyout for next year.

 

Ideally it would be 2-3 years for May and 3-4 years for Odo depending on how negotiations go.

 

The biggest thing for me is if what I have read about Odo being open to an extension are true AND he added another 1-2 mph again on his fastball than the Twins should be working HARD to extend Odo IMO.

 

Obviously Buxton and Berrios should be extended if possible too but otherwise I think those 5 are probably the most likely/most promising extension candidates.

[Seansy]

*The May and Odo extensions include this season.

[nicksaviking]

I've been wondering if the Twins are waiting to see if they can extend Berrios before trying to lock up Odorizzi with an extension. I like Jake, but since his innings need to be managed due to his decreased effectiveness with extra exposure, I kind of think Maeda is his replacement going forward. 

 

Also, Adrianza has a better glove and last year he was a better hitter than Gonzalez. Even with a repeat of his 2019 season, he's also still going to be pretty cheap. If I was going to worry about keeping a utility guy, he'd probably be the one I'd put the most effort into keeping.

 

I'd extend Cruz, but I don't see the rush to do it anytime before midway though the season, there is nothing he could do short of hitting 60 HR that will increase what you have to pay him now versus what you'd have to pay him after the season. The White Sox just signed Edwin Encarnacion for 12M with an option which is exactly what the Twins are paying Cruz this year. That's almost certainly his salary ceiling going forward.

[rdehring]

 

I could see all 5 leaving.

 

-Hill/Bailey are the types of pitchers you sign to 1 year deals in each year's FA market.

-May has been inconsistent from year to year. Those are the players I don't lock down.

-Cruz is too old to predict, though I could see him coming back on year-to-year deals.

-Marwin is valuable, but Arraez, or perhaps Adrianza, Gordon or Blankenhorn take his role.

-Odorizzi. We'll know what pitcher he is by the All-Star break. Extend him then or he walks because of cost. Plus, I suspect taking the QO means he's excited to test the market next year.

Don't know if Odorizzi is excited about free agency, or not.  What I suspect he is excited about is cashing all of those checks totaling $17,800,000.

[Bomba2026]

I'd resign all of them in the season if they are doing well...When Cruz is done playing he needs to be a coach because his positivity in the clubhouse is a team strength. Cut Gonzalez a break. Like I said before...you have a job and your boss is stealing money and some of the valued co workers are too. You need a job so what do you do? Fliers can answer what happens when your a snitch. He got OFF the team and I don't see two of the biggest offenders Bergman and Altuve going anywhere....

[DocBauer]

Just being real, Wheeler is a nice pitcher with a talented arm. But the reason he was in such demand, and got the contract and offers he received, had to do with a FB that consistently sits 94-97 and the hope of further upside.

 

Does Odorizzi have additional upside? Maybe. I'm not sure. But I do know he's awfully good/solid the way he is. But he doesn't have Wheeler's velocity or a wipeout slider. This is all to say I like Oddo a lot and want him back. His $18M this year (rounded) is right in line with the other FA pitchers "below" Wheeler. Unless he, his agent, the Twins, etc, expect a huge blow up in values next offseason, he should be worth right about that $20M mark per. If it takes a bit more, OK. $25M per? I just don't see it at all.

 

I think the Twins would like to keep him. He seems to want to stay. Berrios may be the priority at the moment, but I bet an extension is offered.

 

May: I think he's for real. Can he be replaced? Technically yes. Should he be? No. Sign an extension.

 

Adrianza/Gonzalez: I think Adrianza has the better chance of coming back. Marwin has a shot at a reduced salary. Both offer value for positional flexibility and decent offense. But neither should break the bank

 

Cruz: LOVE the guy and all he has done. But he is absolutely a year at a time guy now, early extension or not.

[miracleb]

Not sure about all the love for May.  3.0 ERA last year is solid (at best) for a guy who only throws 50-60 innings.  He still walks too many guys in his short stints.    And....last year was by far his best year.......so I guess we are hopefully he can build on that.

[jmlease1]

May is the biggest name here to me and the toughest one to know what his market is. He was excellent last year, good but dinged up the year before. The talent is there, but it's hard to be sure on his health. But he'd be a great set-up man to keep around...would he do 3/$12M? Hard to go longer on a reliever. 

 

Odorizzi is a guy that will draw a lot of interest if he has another year like this, but I suspect someone might throw 4/$80M at him, if not more (5/$100M?). That gets harder, which is why i'm glad we added Maeda.

 

Marwin is gone after this year. He's a useful player, but his utility is declining as he ages and is less capable of playing SS/2B/3B and his hit tool doesn't make him a plus guy in the OF, especially if his D slips more. We signed him to the right contract initially and will likely allow him to move on quietly.

 

Hill/Bailey were intentionally signed to 1-year deals. Hill may be cooked regardless, but at best he's a guy that you go year to year on. bailey is younger, but unless he has a heck of a renaissance, I don't see him in the Twins plans, and even if he does have that big comeback year...the risk is pretty high it might be a fluke year. Not a lot of downside in moving on. Again Maeda mitigates the risk here.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not sure about all the love for May. 3.0 ERA last year is solid (at best) for a guy who only throws 50-60 innings. He still walks too many guys in his short stints. And....last year was by far his best year.......so I guess we are hopefully he can build on that.

Perhaps you didn't notice last year's historical offensive environment.

May's 2.94 ERA was 56% better than league average. That's bordering on elite.

[specialiststeve]

Would like Odo to come back.... 3 year deal for say 25 year per season ... 3rd year player option 4th year team option... I think would be pretty fair. 

 

Keep Cruz... extend one year with second year a team option.... 

 

Hill and Bailey is a wait and see... have no idea what we may get. Seems like a filler for just this year....

 

Gonzo is likely gone... Blankenhorn and or Gordan may be replacing the the utility guys... Blankenhorn steps up a bit he may get a look at a full time gig somewhere. 

 

Love to keep May around but will all depend on what he is wanting.. Have plenty of arms coming up that can possibly take his spot... and cheap.... 

 

If I was a betting man I would say Cruz and May likely stay and the rest are somewhere else next year....

 

[Dman]

It is a little early to have any idea who it makes the most sense to keep as this years performance will factor heavily into who is retained or not, but for the sake of guessing here goes.

 

If there is one player I would not bet against it is Cruz.  If he stays healthy he will be productive.  The key is to keep him healthy.  Short of a major decline they will resign Cruz next year.

 

May is a tough call.  If he has another really good year I am guessing they would try to keep him if the price is not outrageous.  If he falters then I think they cut ties as there are cheaper options on the way and we will likely need the 40 man room.

 

I would love to have Odo back but at the 20M or more salary for 4 or 5 years not sure the Twins will take that bet.  I think they let him walk and Hopefully Duran or a cheaper option is available for that spot.

 

I think no matter how good or bad Bailey is he is gone after this year.  His age and the fact we have younger options available to fill that spot makes his return very unlikely.  Same thing for Hill if he pitches well I think some other team will be willing to pay more than we will if he can't pitch then likely time to cut ties anyway.

 

I don't see them bringing Marwin back.  His flexibility is nice to have but I think our roster is deep enough with several guys that can play multiple positions that I don't think he will be brought back.

 

There is no way the Twins will resign all those guys.  I think they are most comfortable hanging around the 130M mark but stretched themselves this year with Odo and the Donaldson signing.  Then they ran into the Maeda deal and looked to recoup some money to help cover the signing.  They will likely need\want to drop down some next year.

 

I count up to 15 guys that might need to be added to the 40 man next year granted not all of them will play themselves into a 40 man spot but there is only room for about 6 guys tops that I can see right now so there will be some tough decisions to make next year.  There are also tow players that the Twins could be tempted to add early in Larnach and Jeffers.  So that will make bringing some of these players back even more difficult.  Nice to have wave 2 hitting just as we are starting to contend but tough decision lie ahead.

[howieramone2]

Agree. Few thought we would fine ourselves in this position several years ago.