Brusdar Graterol's Strange Journey: What Did We Learn?

[cardsfan]

Here's what I think the Dodgers game plan with Price and Graterol is. After all, Dodger pitching since the 1940's is by far the best in baseball during the regular season. I miss the McCourts fighting over their divorce while the Dodgers declined. Oh, the Dodgers lose a lot of deciding last games of the regular season and many last games of the postseason.

 

The Dodgers don't believe they are getting a subpar David Price. Have him start 20 games in Dodger Stadium and San Diego's ballpark and see if the Dodgers don't win 112 games this year. You will have to outpitch the Dodgers in the postseason.

 

Now as far as Graterol, it looks like they want him to start eventually. He starts and say wins 16 games with a good WHIP and ERA they will re-evaluate and perhaps trade him before losing him to 2 years with arm problems and rehab. The Dodgers can develop or buy or trade for pitching. Better to trade a pitcher one year too early than a year too late.

 

Could the Dodgers trade off Price after a great year with 2 years left? Will they get to keep the Red Sox money?

[cardsfan]

The Yankees went 17-2 against Baltimore so let's not act like they didn't have their own similar advantage. The notion that Minnesota lost to the Yankees in the ALDS because NYY's pitching was wildly better is not really supported by any evidence.

[cardsfan]

They were 14-5 against the World Champion Red Sox as the Sox won 84.

 

Someone mentioned the Pirates were similar in the NL Central. But, the Pirates were only 2.5 out at the ASG break one game below .500 before losing 93 games. Only the Marlins were awful the entire season.

[Riverbrian]

 

Do we really know that it "took a toll" on Graterol? I guess it was revealed that one team expressed skepticism about his medicals, which might be weird but hardly surprising. No real details were leaked about those medicals. Being traded in general is probably a bit of a weird experience, especially the first time, but I wouldn't necessarily describe it as "taking a toll". On the positive side, Graterol saw that two powerhouse organizations were both interested in his services, which might be a bit of an ego boost.

 

Also, I'm guessing it was more chaos among media and fans than with the teams and players. The Twins likely informed Graterol of the deal when it was first announced and kept him updated on the process. The process wasn't even that long when you think about it -- yes, longer than the average trade, but it appears the teams agreed in principle on Tuesday evening, spent Wednesday reviewing medicals, Thursday and Friday renegotiating based on those medicals, Saturday the original configuration of the deal was abandoned, then on Sunday all parties came to new agreements. Considering it's still technically the offseason, that's hardly an egregious timeline.

 

If Graterol pitches well... He will be fine. He will control his fate through performance. The front offices around the league will determine his value ultimately and if he pitches well he will be fine. 

 

However, of course it took a toll on the kid. 

 

He's famous now. Pulled out of the darkness and branded fragile for all to see. The press and fan base will play the fragile card every time he hits the DL. Yes, players need to learn to ignore this stuff because it's always out there but this turns the amp up to 11. The louder the amp, the harder it is to not hear it. 

 

If he pitches well... he will be fine. But, I won't minimize the damage done.   

[Mr. Brooks]

The Yankees went 17-2 against Baltimore so let's not act like they didn't have their own similar advantage. The notion that Minnesota lost to the Yankees in the ALDS because NYY's pitching was wildly better is not really supported by any evidence.

We sure had a hard time hitting them in that series.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Out of all the teams in the AL that won more than 73 last year a total of 8 I still think your pitching would rank 8th among those 8.

And you'd be wrong. The Rangers had a team ERA nearly one full run higher than the Twins last season. Boston was half a run higher.

 

The Twins had a deceptively competent pitching staff last season.

 

They had the second highest pitching staff fWAR and the third lowest FIP in the American League.

[Riverbrian]

 

Out of all the teams in the AL that won more than 73 last year a total of 8 I still think your pitching would rank 8th among those 8. Against 4 bad teams you were 31 games above .500. I'm wondering how well the Yankees or Dodgers AAA team would have done against the Tigers, Royals, White Sox and Orioles.

 

The 5 worst records in the AL:

Tigers

Orioles

Royals

Blue Jays

Mariners 

 

Against those 5 teams:

Twins were 43-15

Yankees were 42-16

 

If you insist on substituting the Blue Jays and Mariners for the White Sox to make your point. 

 

OK... The Yankees were 3-4 against the White Sox, which doesn't speak well for the Yankees, and it should also be pointed out that the Yankees went 13-13 against the WEAK WEAK AL Central. 

 

However, this isn't your point. Your point is that you believe the Twins have the worst rotation out of Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Indians, Astros, A's and Rangers.

 

You could be right but you are going to have to try something else in order to slide it past us. 

[Vanimal46]

If Graterol pitches well... He will be fine. He will control his fate through performance. The front offices around the league will determine his value ultimately and if he pitches well he will be fine.

 

However, of course it took a toll on the kid.

 

He's famous now. Pulled out of the darkness and branded fragile for all to see. The press and fan base will play the fragile card every time he hits the DL. Yes, players need to learn to ignore this stuff because it's always out there but this turns the amp up to 11. The louder the amp, the harder it is to not hear it.

 

If he pitches well... he will be fine. But, I won't minimize the damage done.

It’s sad, RB. You’re right and this all happened out of his control. He didn’t ask to be traded, nor did he ever want leaked information his medical report, whatever it contained, that caused Bloom to get cold feet...

[cardsfan]

The 5 worst records in the AL:

Tigers

Orioles

Royals

Blue Jays

Mariners

 

Against those 5 teams:

Twins were 43-15

Yankees were 42-16

 

If you insist on substituting the Blue Jays and Mariners for the White Sox to make your point.

 

OK... The Yankees were 3-4 against the White Sox, which doesn't speak well for the Yankees, and it should also be pointed out that the Yankees went 13-13 against the WEAK WEAK AL Central.

 

However, this isn't your point. Your point is that you believe the Twins have the worst rotation out of Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Indians, Astros, A's and Rangers.

 

You could be right but you are going to have to try something else in order to slide it past us.

The Rangers added Corey Kluber and your former pitcher Kyle Gibson. I don't think Kluber is finished as he turns 34 in April.

 

I'm not entirely sold on Pineda as he accidentally swallowed a masking agent. He was recovering from an arm injury which effected his 2017 season and he missed all of 2018. His 2016 season for the Yankees was bad.

 

And I don't think you can count on the worst SP in the NL for 3 years and last year in mid-August his ERA was 5.5. The last month he was pitching every 6 days and he vastly improved. Took years to do so. And an experimental procedure on 40 year Rich Hill who will need sometime to heal and stretch his arm?

 

Minors need to keep producing a starting pitcher one or more a year.

 

The Rangers won only 78 last year so they were allowing more runs than giving up.

[Riverbrian]

 

The Rangers added Corey Kluber and your former pitcher Kyle Gibson. I don't think Kluber is finished as he turns 34 in April.

I'm not entirely sold on Pineda as he accidentally swallowed a masking agent. He was recovering from an arm injury which effected his 2017 season and he missed all of 2018. His 2016 season for the Yankees was bad.

And I don't think you can count on the worst SP in the NL for 3 years and last year in mid-August his ERA was 5.5. The last month he was pitching every 6 days and he vastly improved. Took years to do so. And an experimental procedure on 40 year Rich Hill who will need sometime to heal and stretch his arm?

Minors need to keep producing a starting pitcher one or more a year.

 

And the Rays only have 3 starters.

 

Here's the deal... I'm not the type to drown in subjective opinions. I won't agree or disagree with your opinion.  

 

Personally, I'm not counting on anybody's pitching until the pitching can be counted. I'll know more as the season progresses. 

 

I just happened to disagree with your original methodology. 

[DocBauer]

What did we learn?

 

Everything is fluid.

 

Graterol, with a lightening arm, is a TANTALIZING prospect! To think, even for a moment, that the Twins didn't like him is foolish. And he is talented enough, and young enough, that if nurtured and brought down the right path, he might yet turn out to be a good to fantastic SP. If he does, the Twins don't look so great here. At worst, he could be a good to great BP arm.

 

And I am NOT disparaging Graterol or hoping for poor results or a poor career from him. But I was recently reminded about Prior and Alex Meyer. Prior had the perfect build, the perfect delivery, and was the next can't miss stud All Star, Ace, possible HOF SP. And he was done by about 25yo. Meyer was imperfect, but had real top of the rotation potential. There were even crazy comparisons as to him being a RH Randy Johnson given time.

 

You just never know. Initially, after some setbacks, limited IP, the Twins decided Graterol, for NOW at least, felt he was a quality pen pitcher. Only time will tell if they were wrong. Other scouts and experts felt this would be his role. Maybe Graterol proves everyone wrong and becomes a stud.

 

But TODAY, he is not. TODAY he is a lightening armed young pitcher with potential. And sometimes you give up potential and hope for something more proven and substantial and hope it turns out. The Twins did that.

[h2oface]

There was a reason Maeda couldn't crack the Dodgers starting rotation when eveyone was healthy. He just is not much for a #3 prospect. I know they got a bit more, but the Dodgers got Raley back too. I hate this trade. An innings eater for a star prospect that is ready for the show and to be the next Kenley Jansen. So much for getting a great pitcher with all that money available. Damn.

[jmlease1]

 

There was a reason Maeda couldn't crack the Dodgers starting rotation when eveyone was healthy. He just is not much for a #3 prospect. I know they got a bit more, but the Dodgers got Raley back too. I hate this trade. An innings eater for a star prospect that is ready for the show and to be the next Kenley Jansen. So much for getting a great pitcher with all that money available. Damn.

 

Except that's not the reason the Dodgers kept shifting him to the bullpen: they did it because they thought he was better suited to handling it than any of their other pitchers, not that he was necessarily the worst of their starters.

 

And Raley is pretty irrelevant, unfortunately. He's 25 and hasn't played a day in MLB yet. In the Twins org he's got 2 LH OFs ahead of him trying to get a 4th OF spot in Wade & Cave, and he's already been passed in the prospect pipeline by Kirilloff and Larnach (also LH bats). For Raley to crack the roster would take something catastrophic. He's the epitome of a surplus, marginal prospect I'm afraid. 

 

You made the kenley jansen comp: which Kenley is Graterol going to be? The one in 2016 & 2017 was one of the best closers in the game and fantastically valuable. The one from the last 2 years? Trevor May has been better. My goodness, Blake Parker was better over the last 2 years than Jansen and we cut him. It's one of the dangers with relievers: their value can seriously fluctuate. Even during Jansen's peak run, he had a couple of years where he was good but not elite.

 

A good starter is more valuable than a good reliever. A good starter is about as valuable as a great closer. A good starter is more consistently valuable over time than relievers.

 

I guess if you don't think Maeda will be a good starter, period, then there's not much else to say? But the numbers and track record suggest differently. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Except that's not the reason the Dodgers kept shifting him to the bullpen: they did it because they thought he was better suited to handling it than any of their other pitchers, not that he was necessarily the worst of their starters.

Looking at the Dodgers rotations entering the postseason each year from 2017-2019, it does look like Maeda was no better than 6th best performing SP.

 

Now, that may be due more to Dodgers SP depth than any failing on Maeda's part -- he's certainly better than virtually every 6th or even 5th SP around the league, so I wouldn't dismiss his value on those grounds. But his upside value is likely capped a bit by average range performance and age.

[h2oface]

 

Except that's not the reason the Dodgers kept shifting him to the bullpen: they did it because they thought he was better suited to handling it than any of their other pitchers, not that he was necessarily the worst of their starters.

 

Well, I listened to (radio) and watched tons of Dodger games the last two years, and heard tons of "Dodger Talk" programs, and that is the main spin, for sure. And he wasn't the only one. Same with Ross Stripling (15 starts), who had a great run as a starter last year. Hey, the Dodgers had a very deep staff. Still will with Urias (8) and May (4) and Gonsolin (6) and Ferguson (2) coming up. But let's get real. You don't get pushed to the pen if you are one of the top four starters, unless it is for a spot inning in the post season. It was to his credit that he could handle the pen pretty well. But Maeda (26) was not one of the top 4 starters, even, but the ones that were were on the IL. Being 5,6, or 7 out of 11 that they used to start games last year is not the worst, either.

 

Blake Parker better than the last two years of Kenley? Seriously?

I won't even answer "which Kenley Jansen....."

[jmlease1]

 

 

Blake Parker better than the last two years of Kenley? Seriously?

I won't even answer "which Kenley Jansen....."

 

Blake Parker bWAR: 2018 1.0, 2019 0.3. 

Kenley Jansen bWAR: 2018 0.6, 2019 0.2

 

(the number of appearances are similar across both years)

 

I'm not saying I want Blake Parker over Kenley Jansen. My point is about how variable relief pitching can be in MLB. Jansen was one of the top relievers in the game, looked like he might be on a HoF track...and he's been just another guy the last 2 years. He might, in fact, be cooked which is one of the reasons Maeda went to the pen and why Graterol is attractive to them...but even for the Dodgers they're not loving paying a reliever $18M. Sure, he might bounce back, but it doesn't take a lot for a reliever's performance to fall off a cliff and fast.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Blake Parker bWAR: 2018 1.0, 2019 0.3. 

Kenley Jansen bWAR: 2018 0.6, 2019 0.2

You're right that Jansen has been mortal the past two years, and not worth $18 mil per year, but bWAR may not tell the whole story.

 

2018-2019

fWAR (Fangraphs, based on FIP)

Jansen 1.5

Parker 0.0

 

FWIW, Jansen has a notable advantage is leverage usage too (1.64 vs 1.18) -- I don't think that's a factor in fWAR, although it should be a factor at B-Ref, so I'm not sure what's going on there.

 

For fun, since I just remembered it existed:

 

WARP (Baseball Prospectus)

Jansen 3.3

Parker 0.5