Getting $10M better than getting a solid prospect?

[Mr. Brooks]

I don’t understand mourning the loss of Raley. He was 40-man chaff in the Twins system. He doesn’t project favorably compared to others in the high minors and probably won’t displace Wade or Cave in front of him.

 

That’s the type of player you toss into a deal to get it done without too much consideration.

 

I can understand believing the Twins didn’t get the most return out of Raley by throwing him into the Maeda deal but Raley needed to be traded, and he needed to be traded relatively soon. With the looming number of guys to be placed on the 40-man next offseason, there isn’t space for a player like Raley on the Twins.

 

I can understand holding on to him for a deadline deal but no longer than that.

I have no problem including Raley, if that's what it took to close the deal.

I don't even necessarily have a problem including the draft pick, if that's what it took to close the deal.

 

I do have a problem selling assets for cash. Clearly those pieces didn't NEED to be included to close the deal, otherwise LA wouldn't be sending $10M back. It appears that Graterol for Madea was likely considered fair by both sides, but then the Twins also decided to sell some additional assets for cash.

 

I don't like it at all. I was just about to give ownership credit for stepping up payroll when the window is open, but as always, there is another shoe to drop.

They can't just spend over for a year or two, to make up for the understandably low payrolls during the losing years. Nope, the FO still has to find a way to get that money back.

[HawkeyeDodger]

Kenta made $10,375,000 in 2016.  If all goes well this year.  He should make a little bit more than that.  So recieving $2.5 million per year from the Dodgers obviously knocks that down a bit.  Kenta also got $1 million for being traded and his signing bonus  is spread out at $125,000 per year so he's already up to $4.125 for 2020.

 

Camargo is interesting.  I met him and chatted with him a bit when they played the Kernels in Cedar Rapids last year.  He also played some 3rd base.  Jair had a nice start to last season and faded down the stretch.  Hunter Feduccia was the primary catcher for the Loons and bats LH so that also limited Camargo's starts.  If he got 2 games in a series.  One might be at 3rd and one behind the plate.  His development is blocked in the Dodgers system.  Smith, Ruiz, Cartaya, Feduccia, Wong plus a couple others at lower levels are rated higher.  The Dodgers in a few years went from almost nothing at catcher to absolutely loaded.  That's why Wong was thrown into the deal for Boston.  Wong projects like Farmer with less swing and miss but more power.  With Ruiz at AAA, Feduccia at AA and Cartaya coming to the states this season it was best for Camargo to go to another organization.  Camargo opened some eyes the first half of last season so hopefully a new organization will allow him to develop.

[Dman]

 

Kenta made $10,375,000 in 2016.  If all goes well this year.  He should make a little bit more than that.  So recieving $2.5 million per year from the Dodgers obviously knocks that down a bit.  Kenta also got $1 million for being traded and his signing bonus  is spread out at $125,000 per year so he's already up to $4.125 for 2020.

 

Camargo is interesting.  I met him and chatted with him a bit when they played the Kernels in Cedar Rapids last year.  He also played some 3rd base.  Jair had a nice start to last season and faded down the stretch.  Hunter Feduccia was the primary catcher for the Loons and bats LH so that also limited Camargo's starts.  If he got 2 games in a series.  One might be at 3rd and one behind the plate.  His development is blocked in the Dodgers system.  Smith, Ruiz, Cartaya, Feduccia, Wong plus a couple others at lower levels are rated higher.  The Dodgers in a few years went from almost nothing at catcher to absolutely loaded.  That's why Wong was thrown into the deal for Boston.  Wong projects like Farmer with less swing and miss but more power.  With Ruiz at AAA, Feduccia at AA and Cartaya coming to the states this season it was best for Camargo to go to another organization.  Camargo opened some eyes the first half of last season so hopefully a new organization will allow him to develop.

 

Yeah scouting his stat line I was not impressed with Camargo.  I know he was young for the level but the 642 OPS seemed pretty brutal to me.  Both of our best catchers are at AA.  We currently have three catchers slated for A ball in Villalobos, Salva and Isola.  All of them have a better OPS than Camargo so I am not sure how he fits into our system either.  He is younger than all three by at least a year but it will be interesting to see where they put him this year.  

 

 

Thanks very much for the additional information on Camargo.  Makes me feel a little bit better about having him thrown in but he has his work cut out for him to find playing time in the Twins system as well.

[old nurse]

 

People say this every year, and it just isn't true. They won't lose a ton of guys in the rule 5.

I don't think there are 10 guys they could lose. They would only have to lose about 6 guys if they were built like Bartolo Colon.

 

 

Or did you mean a figurative ton?

[old nurse]

 

I have no problem including Raley, if that's what it took to close the deal.
I don't even necessarily have a problem including the draft pick, if that's what it took to close the deal.

I do have a problem selling assets for cash. Clearly those pieces didn't NEED to be included to close the deal, otherwise LA wouldn't be sending $10M back. It appears that Graterol for Madea was likely considered fair by both sides, but then the Twins also decided to sell some additional assets for cash.

I don't like it at all. I was just about to give ownership credit for stepping up payroll when the window is open, but as always, there is another shoe to drop.
They can't just spend over for a year or two, to make up for the understandably low payrolls during the losing years. Nope, the FO still has to find a way to get that money back.

That is what you think. Be mindful when you disparage others when you have no clue what led to the final outcome.  The process could have been far different than what you think. You only know the final outcome

[stringer bell]

The added parts of the Graterol deal come out about right. One for one, the Twins would trade Raley for Camargo and "win". Camargo is not on the 40-man roster and plays a position of scarcity while Raley is effectively blocked and has two players with higher ceilings in the pipeline just below him. The Dodgers wanted a higher valued prospect and will probably get him with the Competitive Balance pick next year. For that (future) prospect, the Dodgers are giving the Twins $10M. While it won't break the bank for LA, it does give the Twins a bit more money to play with this year if they choose to do so. 

 

Most here are saying that they would rather the Twins kept the pick, but I think it balances things for trading Raley for Camargo. 

[KGB]

 

I have no problem including Raley, if that's what it took to close the deal.
I don't even necessarily have a problem including the draft pick, if that's what it took to close the deal.

I do have a problem selling assets for cash. Clearly those pieces didn't NEED to be included to close the deal, otherwise LA wouldn't be sending $10M back. It appears that Graterol for Madea was likely considered fair by both sides, but then the Twins also decided to sell some additional assets for cash.

I don't like it at all. I was just about to give ownership credit for stepping up payroll when the window is open, but as always, there is another shoe to drop.
They can't just spend over for a year or two, to make up for the understandably low payrolls during the losing years. Nope, the FO still has to find a way to get that money back.

The original Graterol/Madea trade was just a pass through for LA, so you can't really compare that to the final trade.  The Twins were clearly ready to accept a straight up trade without any money coming back since that was the first trade.

 

When LA was making the trade directly with the Twins, they clearly wanted to get additional assets.  Considering they had to include additional players in the Boston trade, they may not have wanted to give the Twins additional players and the money was better option for LA and helped offset what they sent to Boston.  

 

I don't get why people are getting huge up on the money returning.  If the option is getting the money back or not making the trade, what would you have wanted them to do?

 

 

[Dman]

 

The added parts of the Graterol deal come out about right. One for one, the Twins would trade Raley for Camargo and "win". Camargo is not on the 40-man roster and plays a position of scarcity while Raley is effectively blocked and has two players with higher ceilings in the pipeline just below him. The Dodgers wanted a higher valued prospect and will probably get him with the Competitive Balance pick next year. For that (future) prospect, the Dodgers are giving the Twins $10M. While it won't break the bank for LA, it does give the Twins a bit more money to play with this year if they choose to do so. 

 

Most here are saying that they would rather the Twins kept the pick, but I think it balances things for trading Raley for Camargo. 

 

While I agree Raley was expendable for Minnesota and evens out the trade for LA I still don't see why they needed to sell the 2nd round pick. When you look at the Dodgers system they don't have a ton MLB ready outfielder prospects and if they do decide to trade Joc Pederson Raley looks like someone who could slot into that spot and do a decent job.  Probably not a 900 OPS but maybe close to 800 if platooned.  I know they just designated an outfielder Garlick with decent numbers and he is a righty which I thought they needed but he is older and maybe he is out of options so they like Raley better because they can move him up and down and figure to get similar production for less money.  Not sure what the motivation is but can see the value he gives the Dodgers.  

 

That seems like more than enough to get the trade done from my perspective but knowing Friedman and how he operates maybe it just wasn't quite enough and sweetener was buying the pick.  He loves the draft and that extra money should help them make some moves they wouldn't have been able to make. 

 

I don't see how Camargo equates to Raley.  He is already rule V eligible and his OPS has been pretty pathetic to this point.  All of the catchers we currently have in A ball performed better offensively than he did last year.  While he is only 20 there seems like very little upside there unless this next year is a breakout we have tons of guys like him in the system already.  You might as well call Camargo our 2nd round draft choice this year because to me that is what he is but even worse he is already rule V eligible where a draft pick would have at least 4 years left.  Camargo was a throw in lottery ticket to help our FO not look so bad nothing more nothing less. One the Dodgers didn't really have a use for anyway.

 

Maybe the value of Graterol changed through the process and the Dodgers just wanted more to mitigate the risk but to me it sure looks like they got one heck of deal from the Twins.  Two players that are essentially ready for MLB with 6 years of control and Graterol could be an All-Star player down the road.  Not to mention the extra pick they get in a pitcher heavy draft.  If you ask me they picked our pocket here.

[Mr. Brooks]

The original Graterol/Madea trade was just a pass through for LA, so you can't really compare that to the final trade. The Twins were clearly ready to accept a straight up trade without any money coming back since that was the first trade.

 

When LA was making the trade directly with the Twins, they clearly wanted to get additional assets. Considering they had to include additional players in the Boston trade, they may not have wanted to give the Twins additional players and the money was better option for LA and helped offset what they sent to Boston.

 

I don't get why people are getting huge up on the money returning. If the option is getting the money back or not making the trade, what would you have wanted them to do?

I don't agree.

If the additional assets were to balance out Graterol/Maeda, then LA wouldn't be paying $10M for them. They would have asked for the pick in addition to Graterol without sending us something back in return.

 

I think ownership was initially sold on Maeda only costing $3M this year, then when they found out he could actually make $13M pretty easily, they asked the FO to get that $10M difference back.

 

If they actually spend that $10M at the deadline (without selling more assets to pay for it), then I'll gladly eat crow.

 

This is not pure speculation. It's an educated guess based on ownerships track record.

[howieramone2]

 

I don't agree.
If the additional assets were to balance out Graterol/Maeda, then LA wouldn't be paying $10M for them. They would have asked for the pick in addition to Graterol without sending us something back in return.

I think ownership was initially sold on Maeda only costing $3M this year, then when they found out he could actually make $13M pretty easily, they asked the FO to get that $10M difference back.

If they actually spend that $10M at the deadline (without selling more assets to pay for it), then I'll gladly eat crow.

This is not pure speculation. It's an educated guess based on ownerships track record.

Can you share with the board the applicable track record? Maybe you haven't heard. Crow was recently placed on the endangered species list here in Minnesota.

[amjgt]

There was some question about whether this was $10M spread over 4 years, or $10M this year.

 

It was reported yesterday that the $10M is immediate. No spreading. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Can you share with the board the applicable track record? Maybe you haven't heard. Crow was recently placed on the endangered species list here in Minnesota.

Selling a draft pick to San Diego to get them to take Hughes, instead of just keeping the pick, releasing Hughes outright, and having ownership eat the loss.

 

I'm not blaming the FO, it's not their money. I just was almost suckered into thinking ownership was actually willing to go over budget in a win now year. But then I find the other shoe has dropped, and we are once again selling assets for cash to stay under the Pohlad's iron clad budgetary demands.

 

Note to MLB ready, who I'm sure will have a dissenting opinion:

I'm not asking them to take a loss year after year, or multiple years on average.

Just once, when the window is open, say to the FO: "Financially we should stick to $140M max this year, but there have been a few years during the losing times that we came in under budget, and also, winning sells tickets. So, just this once, you can spend significantly over budget, as I'm sure we'll be able to once again come back under budget at some point after the window closes."

[Dman]

 

Can you share with the board the applicable track record? Maybe you haven't heard. Crow was recently placed on the endangered species list here in Minnesota.

 

Yeah I know I have been eating a lot of it recently.  Hoping to go vegetarian but I have so much crow to eat that might be a while.

[howieramone2]

 

Yeah I know I have been eating a lot of it recently.  Hoping to go vegetarian but I have so much crow to eat that might be a while.

It's not so bad as long as we take turns.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't understand the valuing the draft pick so high.

 

First, with 30 teams, why do we call it a 2nd round pick? It's a 3rd round pick. The 7th third round pick, to be precise.

 

Second, when do we realize the $4 million or $7 million in value from the pick? Have we factored in the time-value of money? I understand there is some value to the pick. But I'm not sure about the methodology any more than how different WAR calculations vary from making Maeda an All-Star to a solid #6 starter.

Technically it's not a numbered round at all. It's a special round, after the 2nd round. It's 7 picks after our actual 2nd round pick. (We forfeited our 3rd round pick when we signed Donaldson, FWIW.)

 

As for the value estimate, you can read about it here:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/

 

I'm not sure the "time-value of money" really matters for this estimate, generally. It's a finite resource. A particular team can have a "win now" strategy and put less value on the pick and more on the cash today, or vice versa, of course. But the pick will still have a baseline market value.

 

If you doubt it, the Hughes trade was pretty much a textbook neutral case of selling a draft pick, the #74 one, for ~$7.25 mil.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don’t know if it has been mentioned in this thread but Bonnes said in the podcast that the $10m is a single payment, not a distribution.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don’t know if it has been mentioned in this thread but Bonnes said in the podcast that the $10m is a single payment, not a distribution.

Interesting. I haven't seen that anywhere else. Did he go into any detail?

 

I would have thought a lump sum would have negative luxury tax implications for the Dodgers. Per Cot's, a lump sum in 2020 would put the Dodgers only $351k from the next tax bracket (although still $20 mil from the highest bracket, with draft pick penalties).

 

I assumed they would want to spread that out? Maeda may not even make $10 mil with incentives this year.

[amjgt]

 

 "Financially we should stick to $140M max this year, but there have been a few years during the losing times that we came in under budget, and also, winning sells tickets. So, just this once, you can spend significantly over budget, as I'm sure we'll be able to once again come back under budget at some point after the window closes."

 

Maybe they are already over what they are being told by ownership their max is. Just because we all feel this shouldn't be the case, doesn't mean it isn't the case.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Interesting. I haven't seen that anywhere else. Did he go into any detail?

 

I would have thought a lump sum would have negative luxury tax implications for the Dodgers. Per Cot's, a lump sum in 2020 would put the Dodgers only $351k from the next tax bracket (although still $20 mil from the highest bracket, with draft pick penalties).

 

I assumed they would want to spread that out? Maeda may not even make $10 mil with incentives this year.

No detail, just a quick comment in the podcast.

 

But given that John is currently in Florida and had just left a press conference before recording, the certainty in which he said it makes me believe he heard it directly from the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No detail, just a quick comment in the podcast.

But given that John is currently in Florida and had just left a press conference before recording, the certainty in which he said it makes me believe he heard it directly from the Twins.

Thanks. Nothing to that effect on Twitter yet from anyone. Spotrac and Cot's assumed it was spread out, so I did too...

[KGB]

 

I don't agree.
If the additional assets were to balance out Graterol/Maeda, then LA wouldn't be paying $10M for them. They would have asked for the pick in addition to Graterol without sending us something back in return.

I think ownership was initially sold on Maeda only costing $3M this year, then when they found out he could actually make $13M pretty easily, they asked the FO to get that $10M difference back.

If they actually spend that $10M at the deadline (without selling more assets to pay for it), then I'll gladly eat crow.

This is not pure speculation. It's an educated guess based on ownerships track record.

I just can't believe it played out the way you think.  First of all, if the FO had to go to ownership to get approval and if they didn't disclose the bonuses, they should be removing the FO not reworking the deal.  So I'm pretty certain if ownership had to approve the deal, they were fully aware of the bonus.

 

The teams was set to take on the full contract in the 3 team deal, it wasn't the Twins who backed out.  Boston backed out, leaving the Twins to deal directly with LA. LA only had the Twins in the 3 team deal because Boston wanted Graterol, so they went and got him.  After the deal blew up, taking back a rookie for the Twins is a lot easier than keep Madea for LA, so they had an incentive to make the trade.  Since the Twins already said yes to the straight up trade, it hard to believe they later came back asking for more. I think it more likely the changes in the deal were made by the Dodgers and not the Twins.

[DocBauer]

Just adding a fraction more to the previous Carmago comments.

 

I had a tough time trying to find a scouting report on him or any detailed information. Signed just before his 16th birthday and want to say he has yet to turn 20, playing at 19yo last season.

 

Can't find the link at the moment, but a national pundit was set to work on his top 30 list for Dodger prospects and was told to keep an eye on Carmago, despite being buried. Projects as a ML backup who has some power potential and a strong arm.

 

About all I got.

[Dman]

 

Just adding a fraction more to the previous Carmago comments.

I had a tough time trying to find a scouting report on him or any detailed information. Signed just before his 16th birthday and want to say he has yet to turn 20, playing at 19yo last season.

Can't find the link at the moment, but a national pundit was set to work on his top 30 list for Dodger prospects and was told to keep an eye on Carmago, despite being buried. Projects as a ML backup who has some power potential and a strong arm.

About all I got.

 

Yeah I see Fangraphs has him at 37 on the List of 42 for the Twins.  They have 65 for the raw power score which I have rarely seen especially for a 20 year old but there are plate discipline concerns as well as hit tool concerns.  I guess if he can turn a few things around then he is a legit prospect but his 650 OPS last year doesn't have me overly convinced.  Scouts know more than me and they like this guys upside.  I have eaten a lot of crow recently.  Have to wait and see I guess.

[Mr. Brooks]

I just can't believe it played out the way you think. First of all, if the FO had to go to ownership to get approval and if they didn't disclose the bonuses, they should be removing the FO not reworking the deal. So I'm pretty certain if ownership had to approve the deal, they were fully aware of the bonus.

 

The teams was set to take on the full contract in the 3 team deal, it wasn't the Twins who backed out. Boston backed out, leaving the Twins to deal directly with LA. LA only had the Twins in the 3 team deal because Boston wanted Graterol, so they went and got him. After the deal blew up, taking back a rookie for the Twins is a lot easier than keep Madea for LA, so they had an incentive to make the trade. Since the Twins already said yes to the straight up trade, it hard to believe they later came back asking for more. I think it more likely the changes in the deal were made by the Dodgers and not the Twins.

Regardless of whose idea it was to add the other pieces, why do you think the Twins agreed to sell the draft pick? That's my point.

 

The pick plus Raley is worth roughly $10M. Therefore, both teams viewed Maeda and Graterol roughly equally in value.

 

We're constantly told the Twins can't compete in FA, if we're going to be good, we have to draft and develop well, and build from within.

How are they supposed to do that by selling picks and prospects?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Regardless of whose idea it was to add the other pieces, why do you think the Twins agreed to sell the draft pick? That's my point.

 

The pick plus Raley is worth roughly $10M. Therefore, both teams viewed Maeda and Graterol roughly equally in value.

 

We're constantly told the Twins can't compete in FA, if we're going to be good, we have to draft and develop well, and build from within.

How are they supposed to do that by selling picks and prospects?

You’re forgetting Jain Camargo was also in the deal.

[old nurse]

 

I think ownership was initially sold on Maeda only costing $3M this year, then when they found out he could actually make $13M pretty easily, they asked the FO to get that $10M difference back.

 

Maeda's contract was pretty well known for the bonus structure. There is no way the front office would assume he would only cost a base salary.  Your guess is not educated.

[KGB]

Regardless of whose idea it was to add the other pieces, why do you think the Twins agreed to sell the draft pick? That's my point.

The pick plus Raley is worth roughly $10M. Therefore, both teams viewed Maeda and Graterol roughly equally in value.

We're constantly told the Twins can't compete in FA, if we're going to be good, we have to draft and develop well, and build from within.

How are they supposed to do that by selling picks and prospects?

They included the draft pick because both the Red Soxs and Dodgers didn't think Graterol was enough for Maeda. Instead of offering another top prospect, they offered the pick. The Dodgers offered money instead of additional prospects.

 

Do you think the Twins should have walked away from the deal because they got money instead of a additional prospect? They do need to draft and develop players but also can't hold all the prospects. They do need to make them available if they want to make trades.

[darin617]

Nobody can argue the $10M is a good return in the deal. The only problem is the Twins will not use it. Lining their pockets is only a win for their bank account.

 

You could say they plan on using the money to pay a salary of a player they acquire at the trade deadline. That would be great figuring if you pro rate a contract in a sense that would be adding someone making $20M+ a season as a rental. Or in the Twins case 2-3 players, which would be fine if they need some help at the deadline.

[Thrylos]

What is a "solid prospect" exactly?

[Brandon]

The 10 million is probably a hedge in case both Hill and Maeda make all their incentives increasing spending by close to 20 million. Receiving 10 million makes it a max 10 million as well