Take Two: Pending Physicals, Twins and Dodgers Agree to Trade

[diehardtwinsfan]

Haven't seen what we're getting back, but it's essentially the same trade with cash and a prospect minus a comp pick (valued at about 6M less than the cash received) and Raley...

 

My guess is we'll get a prospect back similar to what we drafted... probably a medium to high ceiling guy with a lot of question marks in rookie ball or low A.. 

[LewFordLives]

Am still trying to wrap my head around this one. Was not a fan of Brusdar for Maeda straight up. Maeda is about to turn 32, and I don't see that he is a big improvement over other options. The $10 million for the comp B pick is odd. Seems like an overpay by the Dodgers. Why would they do it when they know they could have done Brusda-Maeda straight up?

[jud6312]

Maybe they'll finally be able to pry Yadier Alvarez away from the Dodgers. Not saying that would be a great get, but I remember his name being pretty popular around here.

[mikelink45]

Of course it is a worse deal.  I never talk about money in this world of silly finance called MLB, but the draft choice on top of Raley is a crazy addition for a team that said it was backing out of the deal with the Red So.  Raley does not hurt the twins - we have Rooker, Kiriloff, Larnach ready for that position and Rooker should be next to go. Looking at their lineup poor Raley is stuck in another system that really does not need him. Their lower level rookie will be interesting to learn about.  Go Maeda - you are one of us now. 

[rdehring]

The effect of this trade will not be known for some time. 

 

First, who is the low level prospect coming to the Twins.  Low level doesn't mean he isn't a good prospect.  Second, trading Raley opens a spot on the 40-man, but more important means one less spot is occupied come November when there are going to be several good prospects going unprotected in the Rule 5 draft.

 

And finally, taking Graterol out of this year's bullpen creates an opening.  Will that opening be used like last year when Thorpe-Smeltzer-Dobnak rotated through Target Field giving the Twins valuable long relief innings while gaining experience in the big leagues?

[bunsen82]

The issue is the Red Sox screwed the pooch on Graterol.  I am guessing the Twins made sure everyone was aware that the Red Sox had destroyed his reputation, and also the Twins value merely to improve a deal they got flack on.  I think the Dodgers wanting to get the deal through and not burn a bridge with the Twins ( and make the Red Sox look bad)  took on Graterol.  They have cash to burn which the 10 million is worth more than Raley and the pick.  Essentially the Twins got a better deal than was previously reported unless cash was always supposed to be part of the deal. 

 

The Twins can buy someone elses comp pick before the draft to get back to whole or use cash to purchase other prospects in trades. 

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Those rumors were from the equivalent of Brandon Warne. I love Warne, great writer, he’s not LEN3 or Ken Rosenthal.

It’s not that Warne, or Thomas Holland or any of us here at TD can’t break news coverage... but I wouldn’t take it as gospel

 

Let's not be giving LEN3 more credit than he deserves... He's a terrible writer and the next story he breaks will be his first.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Worth keeping in mind that the draft pick is probably worth more than $4.1 mil. Those Fangraphs value estimates don't take into account that only a few picks can be traded, which effectively makes those picks more valuable relative to the non-tradable picks.

 

That's how we effectively got $7.25 mil from the Padres for the #74 pick in the Hughes trade of 2018. I'd guess that we could assign a similar value to the #67 pick in this trade, with the rest of the $10 million being for Raley (less the value of whatever prospect we may still receive).

[jmlease1]

 

Still sucks. Maybe 1-2 decent years of Maeda for a 21 year old that will either be a Top starter or Top reliever we could use for 6+ years. All because we are desperate for SPs and have no inside options (and we are doing the same damn thing again this year by loading up on vets with no developed internal options. Hate this cycle we keep repeating.

 

I'm baffled by this. Why are you predicting only 1-2 decent years from Maeda? He's under contract for 4 years and is only going to be 35 at the very end of it. And you're awfully sure that Graterol (after pitching 14 innings in MLB) will be elite either as a starter or a reliever.

 

I'm fine with this deal. I think it's probably best to complete it with the Dodgers once it's been started and I think the additional pieces that moved around are fine. The 67th pick is an asset but not a significant one: we're talking lottery tickets here. Raley was useful depth to have in AAA, but was already behind Cave & Wade as a LH OF option (and behind Rooker as an OF option too). So again: not like we gave up much. The $10M we're getting back is nice, makes it easier to add another piece at or before the deadline depending on who is available and what we need. Considering the logjam at OF, would I deal Raley straight up for $10M? Not crazy.

 

I liked Graterol, but unless you think the Twins are just flat-out wrong and he really is going to be an elite starter, this is a good trade. I doubt the Dodgers are even going to try and make him a starter: they've had bullpen issues and will almost certainly just plug him in back there and hope his arm and shoulder holds up.

 

Maeda is a nice pitcher on a great contract that fits this team's window really well. Now it's not an imperative to resign Odorizzi next year, because you should have 3 solid pieces already in your rotation in Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda. You don't have to worry about trying to match if someone throws a 4 year $100M contract at odorizzi if you don't want to.

 

I feel much more confident in the rotation going into this year than I did last year. 3 spots are locked in until Pineda gets back (and remember, he's coming off suspension, not injury, so there's little reason to think he won't be able to slot in immediately) and the twins have options to fill until he's ready in Bailey, Thorpe, and Chacin while also having depth to guard against injury. With Hill as an option to get ready for late season, they've got another insurance policy waiting and there are other minor league pitchers in guys like in Dobnak that look ready to contribute in case of injury/ineffectiveness.

 

I'll miss Graterol and his 100mph fastball. I loved his wipeout slider at 89mph. i think he would have been a weapon in the 'pen...probably. But I have enough faith in this FO to believe them when they indicate he's not going to be a starter. So I'd make this deal and gear up to win this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mid rotation starters are not “win now” moves, no matter how you try to spin it. If that’s what you wanted the Twins needed to dangle more than an apparently injured Graterol. True win now moves bring back premium, season changing talent. See Dodgers, Betts if you’re curious. No, this trade is simply the Twins saying they prefer Maeda to Graterol. I think that is short sighted and not likely to end well. 

This is absolutely a win-now move. This rotation has depth but it's not very good depth, especially early in the season until Pineda comes back.

 

The Twins have to win to make the postseason and this move will help them win baseball games. If that's not a win-now move, I think your bar is set a little too high.

 

BTW, I'm not in love with this move, either, but the Twins are a better team today than they were yesterday. And that's what I want to see continue to happen through this year's trade deadline.

[stringer bell]

I don't want to sound all "sour grapes" on Graterol, but it is not a guarantee that he'll will be elite, even if he does stay healthy. The wipeout slider a triple-digit fastball are great, but we were saying the same thing about Fernando Romero. 

 

I wish Brusdar the best and hope he's real effective until the Dodgers play the Twins in the World Series. I wish that if the club was going to cashier a top prospect, they would have gotten top value, but Maeda is an intriguing arm and I think he will help this club this year.

[segagenesisgenius]

 

 

But there is no other argument. A good starter is worth more than a great reliever. Period. It's easier to find guys who can work 3-4 innings a week one inning at a time and get people out. Much harder to find guys who can throw 5+ innings a game, 200 innings a year effectively.

 

And that's what's going on with this trade. If the Twins thought Graterol was going to be able to handle a major-league starter workload, they wouldn't have offered him for Maeda. (The presumption being that the Twins still feel like Balazovic will be able to handle a starters workload.)  

 

It looks from your comments that you are 100% certain that the Twins are 100% certain that Graterol will not be a starter.  If that is indeed your position, then I am here to tell you that your position is incorrect.

 

No good analytic department (which the Twins now have, or at least are in process of building) deal with such absolutes.  I would bet you just about anything that the twins thought that there was, say, a 40% chance that he would be a starter and a 60% chance that he would be a reliever, such that there was a better-than even chance that they would win this trade.  This would seem to be the case as both Boston and the Dodgers (two smart organizations) appear to evaluate Graterol as having a strong case to be a starter (otherwise they wouldn't make this trade).  And make no mistake, Boston definitely wanted Graterol and evaluated him as a starter, otherwise they would have said that they didn't want Graterol at all (rather than saying that they wanted Graterol AND someone else). 

 

It almost sounds like you are making it absolute in order to justify the trade as a clear win.  This trade is too close to be a clear win.  It is a high risk, high reward trade with the chance to push the Yanks for the #1 seed this year (pending one more move for a front-line starter at the trade deadline).  I absolutely guarantee you that the Twins did not evaluate Graterol as a player who had essentially no chance as a starter.  Instead they viewed him as a high volatility guy, and they wanted a more clear floor to give them a more clear path to the playoffs while their window is wide open.  Not a bad idea.  Might even be a very astute idea.  But not nearly as clear-cut as you are describing. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And the best part is when the deal is finalized it means that the Dodgers had no problems with the medical info, putting the lie to the Cheating Sox claims.

I have no qualms with disliking the Red Sox, but any evaluation of Graterol's medicals is going to be subjective, and teams won't necessarily agree. The Red Sox no more "lied" in this process than, for example, if the Twins and Rangers had different health forecasts for Kyle Gibson this offseason, or the 

Twins and Athletics had different health forecasts for Dakota Chalmers in August 2018, etc.

[HawksNest]

The trade says just as much about what the FO thinks of Balazovic and Duran as it does about Graterol.

 

Twins were obviously very motivated to get this deal done considering they continued to pursue it even when the Boston shenanigans were causing it to drag on and renegotiated with the Dodgers directly when the Red Sox pulled out.

 

Why do you think the FO was so set on trading Graterol?  They clearly believe that he is a reliever long-term and have identified Maeda as a cost-effective starting option that will slot in very, very, nicely in the top 3 of our rotation.  

 

All that being said, the FO doesn't have an awesome track record trading away bullpen pieces (i.e. Pressly, Nick Anderson, etc.) but I'm assuming that they feel really, really good about Balazovic and Duran here.

 

Guys, don't undersell Maeda here. The guy is a really good pitcher.  

[segagenesisgenius]

 

This is absolutely a win-now move. This rotation has depth but it's not very good depth, especially early in the season until Pineda comes back.

 

The Twins have to win to make the postseason and this move will help them win baseball games. If that's not a win-now move, I think your bar is set a little too high.

 

BTW, I'm not in love with this move, either, but the Twins are a better team today than they were yesterday. And that's what I want to see continue to happen through this year's trade deadline.

 

I think you are both right.  Maeda clearly makes the Twins better in the regular season.  He also brings the Twins odds of winning the #1 AL seed (which is HUGE in advancing past the ALDS) from, say, 20% to 33% (given that we were addressing the one biggest weakness of our team, and largely doing so by massively raising the floor of that weakness).  If you are increasing the odds of getting the #1 seed substantially, it is a win-now move.

 

THAT SAID, it is difficult to say that this improves the ceiling of what we could do in the postseason.  If things are going well Maeda will not start in the postseason.  We all want a new #1 or #2.  That gives us mystery guy, Berrios, and Rich Hill as our probable starting playoff pitchers, with Odo (at least) slotting in front of Maeda unless Odo falls apart.  Maeda has pitched well in the postseason as a bullpen guy, yes.  He is death on righties, specifically, and generally above average on lefties.  But Maeda does not have a higher ceiling as a reliever than Graterol, whose raw stuff should translate to death on both righties and lefties.  I mean, last we saw Graterol he pitched a clean inning with 2 strikeouts in the playoffs against the Yankees, and his last pitch was 101 mph.  Graterol profiles as a Ryan Pressley-type overpowering put-out-any-fire reliever way more than Maeda does. 

 

As such, while Maeda improves both our floor and probably our ceiling for the regular season, it is difficult to say that he improves our ceiling for the post season, which (for better or worse) after last year is primarily what our fans care about.  In the post season all you care about are you top 3 starters and your top 7 relievers.  If Maeda is one of our top 3 starters we are probably in trouble.  And while Maeda can undoubtedly be one of our top 7 relievers, that was also undoubtedly where Graterol was headed too.

[bunsen82]

I think the front office was being risk averse.  Graterol is a boom/bust prospect, they would have loved to have the success, but needed a more projectable positive performance and were able to get that from Maeda.  

[laloesch]

 

Still sucks. Maybe 1-2 decent years of Maeda for a 21 year old that will either be a Top starter or Top reliever we could use for 6+ years. All because we are desperate for SPs and have no inside options (and we are doing the same damn thing again this year by loading up on vets with no developed internal options. Hate this cycle we keep repeating.

Not a fan of the deal initially, but after thinking about it for a while and looking at Maeda's stats I've come around. But this statement of maybe 1-2 decent years is an extreme exaggeration and biased IMO. Maeda is a good pitcher and even at 32 has plenty of gas left in the tank and the added bonus that he's a 4 PITCH PITCHER! Certainly not a one / two trick pony like Graterol who just hurls the ball as hard as possible and that's about it (at this point). Don't get me wrong, I'm sad to see him go but at this point unless he makes some major changes to his arsenal and approach he's not profiling as starter and certainly is hittable in the major leagues.

 

The more i think about it this deal was not that bad for the Twins. Maeda is arguably the teams best starter to begin the season. At least they have a stable 1-2-3 punch to the rotation in Odorizzi, Berrios and Maeda. Bailey can be Bailey without having to rely on him to heavily and when Pineda comes back in May this rotation is pretty strong me thinks.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think you are both right.  Maeda clearly makes the Twins better in the regular season.  He also brings the Twins odds of winning the #1 AL seed (which is HUGE in advancing past the ALDS) from, say, 20% to 33% (given that we were addressing the one biggest weakness of our team, and largely doing so by massively raising the floor of that weakness).  If you are increasing the odds of getting the #1 seed substantially, it is a win-now move.

 

THAT SAID, it is difficult to say that this improves the ceiling of what we could do in the postseason.  If things are going well Maeda will not start in the postseason.  We all want a new #1 or #2.  That gives us mystery guy, Berrios, and Rich Hill as our probable starting playoff pitchers, with Odo (at least) slotting in front of Maeda unless Odo falls apart.  Maeda has pitched well in the postseason as a bullpen guy, yes.  He is death on righties, specifically, and generally above average on lefties.  But Maeda does not have a higher ceiling as a reliever than Graterol, whose raw stuff should translate to death on both righties and lefties.  I mean, last we saw Graterol he pitched a clean inning with 2 strikeouts in the playoffs against the Yankees, and his last pitch was 101 mph.  Graterol profiles as a Ryan Pressley-type overpowering put-out-any-fire reliever way more than Maeda does. 

 

As such, while Maeda improves both our floor and probably our ceiling for the regular season, it is difficult to say that he improves our ceiling for the post season, which (for better or worse) after last year is primarily what our fans care about.  In the post season all you care about are you top 3 starters and your top 7 relievers.  If Maeda is one of our top 3 starters we are probably in trouble.  And while Maeda can undoubtedly be one of our top 7 relievers, that was also undoubtedly where Graterol was headed too.

Great post, and I agree with a lot of it.

 

One thing, though: it's likely Maeda also moves the needle for the Twins in the postseason. As we watched the Twins limp into the 2019 postseason with 40% of a rotation intact, it's far from a guarantee that any one (or two or three) of Berrios, Hill, Odorizzi, or Pineda will be available to start an October baseball game.

 

And adding another starter of similar quality greatly increases the odds of entering October with a competent rotation, something the Twins couldn't do last postseason and the Yankees annihilated them as a result (but it was definitely a team effort to collapse that spectacularly, not only the fault of the rotation).

[segagenesisgenius]

 

The trade says just as much about what the FO thinks of Balazovic and Duran as it does about Graterol.

 

Twins were obviously very motivated to get this deal done considering they continued to pursue it even when the Boston shenanigans were causing it to drag on and renegotiated with the Dodgers directly when the Red Sox pulled out.

 

Why do you think the FO was so set on trading Graterol?  They clearly believe that he is a reliever long-term and have identified Maeda as a cost-effective starting option that will slot in very, very, nicely in the top 3 of our rotation.  

 

All that being said, the FO doesn't have an awesome track record trading away bullpen pieces (i.e. Pressly, Nick Anderson, etc.) but I'm assuming that they feel really, really good about Balazovic and Duran here.

 

Guys, don't undersell Maeda here. The guy is a really good pitcher.  

 

Disagree. I think they traded now because they want to win now, as in this year or next year.  I think that this trade does not reflect that the Twins think that Graterol is a reliever long term (though they of course had concerns about that).  I think that this trade reflects that the Twins think that Graterol is not stretched out enough to be a starter for a full year in 2020, and, as a result of being a reliever this year, probably won't be a starter in 2021 either, such that he does not factor substantially into their current two-year window.  You know why I think that? Because the Twins also wanted 10MM, and were willing to give up a high round 3rd pick to get it. The 3rd round pick indicates that they are not worried about 4 or 5 years from now, and they want the money to do something this year.  As I read that, they want money to be able to trade for an ace that a team wants to dump.  They don't need the 10MM for this years payroll, as they are only 17th in MLB.  They clearly hope to get someone else that is currently paid a lot of money.  They want to win a World Series this year or next year, during which Graterol is unlikely to be a front-line starter that he has the potential to turn into.  

 

I think that the Twins are hoping that Maeda fits in as their #4 starter for the bulk of the year.  He is clearly behind Berrios.  He is also behind what Odorizzi was last year (which the Twins are clearly hoping will repeat).  We are looking to add a new impact pitcher by all accounts.  Rich Hill would also be ahead of him.  I think it is also debatable whether or not he has a higher ceiling than Pineda.  Frankly, by the time we get to the playoffs, I think that the front office is hoping that Maeda is our #6 starter (mystery new pitcher, Berrios, Hill, Odo, Pineda, Maeda), and is actually one of our primary relievers instead.

 

That said, that is not a slam on Maeda, it is a compliment on the depth of our starting pitching.  Maeda profiles as a very very solid and reliable #3 guy.  We just already two have guys that profile as #2/#3 guys in Odo and Pineda (at least by performance last year and raw ability, respectively).   

[segagenesisgenius]

 

Great post, and I agree with a lot of it.

 

One thing, though: it's likely Maeda also moves the needle for the Twins in the postseason. As we watched the Twins limp into the 2019 postseason with 40% of a rotation intact, it's far from a guarantee that any one (or two or three) of Berrios, Hill, Odorizzi, or Pineda will be available to start an October baseball game.

 

And adding another starter of similar quality greatly increases the odds of entering October with a competent rotation, something the Twins couldn't do last postseason and the Yankees annihilated them as a result (but it was definitely a team effort to collapse that spectacularly, not only the fault of the rotation).

 

Very fair, and great additions to my comments.  Maeda improves the floor of what we could do in the postseason substantially, both as a reliever and as a starter.  I also agree that, while I would guess that the front office is currently hoping that Odorizzi would be a playoff starter rather than Maeda, no one will be writing off the game if Maeda is starting.  Postseason moments are clearly not too big for him, and he clearly has the talent to impact games. 

[bird]

 

They DONT have a ton of information. He was was out for a full year (like many SPs with TJ) and out for a couple of months for his first year above low A. He was dominant. He has 3 pitches. FB is plus plus, SL plus plus, and CH average. He is also going into his year 21 season. By comparison, Balazovic has a FB plus, SL plus and Xh average to plus. He may have a bit more command. He is about the same age, and also had TJ. He finished last year unhurt for most part. They know nothing more about Balazovic than Grays. I stand by this. We will regret it.

 

Is it possible you are underestimating what the Twins (and others) know about these guys? Is it possible you are overestimating the significance of what very very very little you (and others here) know? They DO have a ton of information. We DON'T.

 

The Twins just concluded their pitching minicamp, where invited pitching prospects came in to work exclusively on improving or maybe developing a single pitch. You and I have zero idea about the outcome of all this. We don't even know which prospects participated. So, for any of us to rattle off a bunch of plus plus stuff from an old scouting report written by an outsider seems a bit silly and maybe a bit arrogant to me.

 

FanGraphs, who I think most of us here find more credible than MLB, gives a 50FV grade to Balazovic, Graterol, Duran, and Jeter Downs. I think, without knowing more, us outsiders would have to say they are comparable talents. The reason MOST of us view the other three to have more value than Graterol?

 

1. More pronounced injury risk.

2. Starters versus bullpen, at least temporarily

3. More past and projected performance volatility

 

Still, you might be right. Most of us aren't confident enough with what we know or what we can predict to have your level of conviction. Labelling it a stupid decision doesn't sound smart to me.

[Craig Arko]

I recall the career trajectories of Alex Meyer and Joe Benson and think all of this talk of prospects is always going to be a crapshoot. You win some and you lose most.

[In My La Z boy]

I have read every comment and agree we are conflicted. All of us were calling for a trade when we failed to sign Wheeler/Madbum/Ryu. Even after the Bailey/Hill signings we heard a universal call for a trade. Now we make the trade, and we can't decide if we like it or not. Well, what I like most is that we actually made a bold trade. Whatever happens there will be 20/20 hindsight, and someone will be right, and someone will be wrong. I for one will say nothing, because I love that they made a bold trade.

No guts, No glory? Gotta give to get? One thing for sure - This is not Terry Ryan's team anymore. 

[bird]

 

I still like the trade, even in this revised form. As Brock and others have said, the Twins are a stronger team now than they were a month ago. But ... I still hate to see Brusdar go. When I saw the trade announced today, my first thought was that a lot of people on this board would moan about losing Luke Raley as part of the package. Seems like many had high hopes for him. But as noted by others already, we have other very good prospects that can play a similar position so I'm not too sad about losing him. I'm more annoyed that we had to give up a fairly high draft pick to get the deal done. But hey, I like our starting rotation a lot more now.

 

FanGraphs is not one with high hopes for Raley. They found at least 43 prospects in the system that they liked better than Raley. A ton of them are outfielders.

[cmoss84]

Consider me under the "flip a coin" category if I think the Twins won this deal. Few thoughts:

 

-most Dodger fans say, "Maeda is good. You will like him. But he nibbles too much and usually gives you a strong 5."

 

-Maeda obviously has a ton more experience than Graterol.

 

-it feels like our rotation is full of 5 inn guys...hope our pen is strong.

 

-could Grateful have been a 5 inn guy also? Only time will tell.

 

-If our rotation fills out in a couple of years, without Maeda, no reason we can't trade him again to a pitcher-starved team (and maybe get a decent pitching prospect for him).

 

Who knows. But it feels damn good trying to win!

[ashbury]

All I ask is that if you’re this convinced you’re right and want to say I told you so, be sure to check back in with cap in hand if you’re wrong.

[jmlease1]

 

FanGraphs is not one with high hopes for Raley. They found at least 43 prospects in the system that they liked better than Raley. A ton of them are outfielders.

 

I think this is right. It's not that he's a bad player or anything, but: he's 25, doesn't have an elite skill, and plays the easiest positions to fill. From the twins side of things he's also blocked by 2 players above him in the minors in Cave & Wade who have MLB experience and bat the same side, and is about to be passed by Larnach & Kirilloff from AA. Raley might have a future in MLB, but it's as a role-player and the twins have that covered. He's an easy asset to flip to make a deal work.

[Major League Ready]

Has the low level prospects mentioned by MLB trade rumors been identified? Is this a Player to be named later?

[ChrisKnutson]

Has the low level prospects mentioned by MLB trade rumors been identified? Is this a Player to be named later?

 

I know it’s probably someone less talented and less divisive, but man would it be interesting if it was Yadier Alvarez.

[gbg]

 

To get a true ace this offseason, we would have needed to trade Graterol, Larnach, and Kirby Puckett.

 

Yeah, but I hear Kirby's medical report showed some issues...