Reusse: Balazovic Intends to remain a starter

[Seth Stohs]

http://www.startribune.com/twins-pitching-prospect-jordan-balazovic-still-a-starter-and-he-hopes-to-keep-it-that-way/567540332/?refresh=true

 

 

Patrick Reusse caught up with Twins top pitching prospect down in Ft. Myers. They discussed his pitches, what he's been working on and more. 

 

 

“I love being a starter,” Balazovic said. “I’m not one of those guys who is going to blow hitters away by throwing 100. I mix pitches. Some nights, it’s a lot of fastballs. Other nights, more breaking pitches. Whatever’s working.”

 

[jkcarew]

They all WANT to be starters.

 

This will be a huge year for Balazovic. To stay on track, he needs to get up into that 120-130 inning range. This is where Graterol faltered. I like the odds of the 6-5 guy that throws 95 MPH better than the 6-1 guy that throws 101. We’ll see.

[DocBauer]

They all WANT to be starters?

 

This will be a huge year for Balazovic. To stay on track, he needs to get up into that 120-130 inning range. This is where Graterol faltered. I like the odds of the 6-5 guy that throws 95 MPH better than the 6-1 guy that throws 101. We’ll see.

Imagine he and Duran knocking on the door for 2021 along with the development of Thorpe and Dobnak this season?

[DanFordWasTheMan]

I've already professed my love of Balazovic. But let me do it some more by pointing out that Balazovic had only one weakness all last year.

 

It was called June.

 

In none of the four other months, April, May, July, and August, did Jordan let opponents bat more than .190 against him. In those four months, opponents were silenced in every way, averaging a measly .462 OPS against him. That's absolutely dominating. 

 

In June, he was mortal. They hit .275 against him and ran their OPS up to .825 

 

But other than that, his stat line looks perfect. Really, I defy you to show me a meaningful way (beyond inexplicably not liking June) Balazovic wasn't excelling. 

[gunnarthor]

I mentioned this on TwinkieTown but I'd really like to see what Balazovic and Larnich could get back combined. I think both could be stars but neither will be ready this year. Could they bring back a cost-controlled starter that has over 3 years of control left that would fit in well with Berrios?

[mikelink45]

I want him to be a starter and if we have Graterol back I want him and Duran to be starters too.  The faster these arms are in MLB the better. 

[nicksaviking]

Was this even ever a question, or did this question just bubble up because of the Graterol situation? Balazovic has been touted as having the makeup, command and repertoire of an actual starter every second since he’s been drafted as far as I know.

[Thegrin]

I really dislike Ruesse's snarky attitude.  He needs to retire already.

[Platoon]

I love Pat’s  columns. His human interest ones are exceptional.    As for the sports columns,, he writes without the homerism inherent to many local ink stained wretches. On the topic of baseball, he has the experience of having seen more baseball than any other writer in this or most other towns. Or websites.  And I too, struggle how to spell ‘Reusse’, which is why I call him Pat!

[rv78]

Twins got to start producing some quality starters. Last one was Berrios and that was how many years ago? Throwing in the towel on some of these guys early by delegating them to the bullpen isn't helping. Cleveland seems able to roster a new stud starter almost every year. Time for the Twins to get on that bandwagon.

[gunnarthor]

 

Twins got to start producing some quality starters. Last one was Berrios and that was how many years ago? Throwing in the towel on some of these guys early by delegating them to the bullpen isn't helping. Cleveland seems able to roster a new stud starter almost every year. Time for the Twins to get on that bandwagon.

That's probably one of the reasons we took Falvey from Cleveland.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I really dislike Ruesse's snarky attitude.  He needs to retire already.

 

Best Twins writer and historian in the market, and it's not even close. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Best Twins writer and historian in the market, and it's not even close. 

Yep. I really like Reusse. In part because he truly loves baseball and it shows in his writing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I've already professed my love of Balazovic. But let me do it some more by pointing out that Balazovic had only one weakness all last year.

 

It was called June.

 

In none of the four other months, April, May, July, and August, did Jordan let opponents bat more than .190 against him. In those four months, opponents were silenced in every way, averaging a measly .462 OPS against him. That's absolutely dominating. 

 

In June, he was mortal. They hit .275 against him and ran their OPS up to .825 

 

But other than that, his stat line looks perfect. Really, I defy you to show me a meaningful way (beyond inexplicably not liking June) Balazovic wasn't excelling. 

June happened obviously... so I guess the real question is what was going on in June and was it something that we may see again, an injury, or otherwise utterly correctable... Interesting observation though.

[nicksaviking]

Twins got to start producing some quality starters. Last one was Berrios and that was how many years ago? Throwing in the towel on some of these guys early by delegating them to the bullpen isn't helping. Cleveland seems able to roster a new stud starter almost every year. Time for the Twins to get on that bandwagon.

Cleveland's model appears to be developing starters with four usable pitches with one of those pitches being an above average offspeed pitch and the primary FB is the four-seamer.

 

That's not Graterol. Might not be Duran either. Balazovic is our big prospect hope.

 

But Lewis Thorpe also looks a lot like that profile, I wouldn't be surprised if they give him a long leash at some point.

[DocBauer]

Cleveland's model appears to be developing starters with four usable pitches with one of those pitches being an above average offspeed pitch and the primary FB is the four-seamer.

That's not Graterol. Might not be Duran either. Balazovic is our big prospect hope.

But Lewis Thorpe also looks a lot like that profile, I wouldn't be surprised if they give him a long leash at some point.

Recent quote from either Falvey or Levine, and I forget which one, to paraphrase: "our staff bas a sweet tooth for a guy who has a dominate pitch they can work off of and develop, or a guy with a good mix and we can find and we can refine the right sequence" or something to that affect. Again, just paraphrasing from distratcted memory. There are guys in the system, right now, even if not drafted by this FO, that offer some real potential to step forward. Apparently, Graterol was questionable. But it may take another year or two before some of those arms are ready. I think we are on the same page. But I think Duran is one of those arms.

 

I also agree Thorpe is one of those guys. I think Dobnak may be. I'm less convinced on Smeltzer, but I'm not betting against a LH with that innate ability to know how to pitch. I think he bas a role somewhere.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I mentioned this on TwinkieTown but I'd really like to see what Balazovic and Larnich could get back combined. I think both could be stars but neither will be ready this year. Could they bring back a cost-controlled starter that has over 3 years of control left that would fit in well with Berrios?

Like Maeda?  I'm not sure dealing either of them except for top of the line pitching, which no one is selling right now.  Maybe if the Mets implode we'd have some kind of match.

[snap4birds]

Balazovich sounds like a great prospect, which brings up a question for me.  In Fangraphs new prospect list, it says he "pretty firmly projects as a No. 4 starter right now".  Duran is "tracking like a mid-rotation starter".   

Is Fangraphs just really conservative on projecting guys to be top of the rotation?  Or are the expectations on here too optimistic?  

I think Graterol was listed as mid-rotation, too.  I haven't followed Fangraphs enough to know how they rate pitchers, but they seem pretty conservative to me.  

[gunnarthor]

 

Balazovich sounds like a great prospect, which brings up a question for me.  In Fangraphs new prospect list, it says he "pretty firmly projects as a No. 4 starter right now".  Duran is "tracking like a mid-rotation starter".   

Is Fangraphs just really conservative on projecting guys to be top of the rotation?  Or are the expectations on here too optimistic?  

I think Graterol was listed as mid-rotation, too.  I haven't followed Fangraphs enough to know how they rate pitchers, but they seem pretty conservative to me.  

It's probably a difference of definitions. This is a wonderful old article from John Sickels about how scouts define starters by number.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters

 

Generally, scouts talk about a guy based on their stuff should play in the majors and they grade on a 20-80 scale. A 60 grade is plus. Now if you look at fangraphs ranking of Balazovic you see they like him but none of his stuff, they think, will grade out as plus. Compare that with Casey Mize's* write up where you see lots of 60 and above grades. That's the difference between a future #1 and a future #4. 

 

So when scouts talk a pitcher's spot - future ace (that's a #1), top of the rotation (usually means a 1 or 2), #3, or backend starter (usually means #5 but capable of staying there and not going to the pen) - they are basing it on what they think will happen based on stuff as well as durability, mechanics and injury history. Fangrpahs guys have Graterol with two plus pitches and solid enough command/control so he'd normally get a #2 attached to him but because they are concerned with his mechanics, height, injury history, they have him as a reliever instead but could also knock him down a ranking as well so they'd say "future #3 or closer." 

 

In the majors though, we sometimes ignore that and instead use the definitions a bit more based on results over stuff. As Sickel's noted in his article, Brad Radke played up a lot more than a #3. Coming up through the minors, Berrios was thought of as a future #3 for the most part. I think most would now argue he's a #2.

 

 

* Mize is ranked #2 in his own system behind a pitcher who grades out a bit lower on overall stuff (but not much lower) because of injury concerns.

[dex8425]

 

I mentioned this on TwinkieTown but I'd really like to see what Balazovic and Larnich could get back combined. I think both could be stars but neither will be ready this year. Could they bring back a cost-controlled starter that has over 3 years of control left that would fit in well with Berrios?

I'd rather keep Balazovic and trade virtually anyone else in the system, since he looks like the surest bet at this point to become a reliable mlb #2-3 starter. Why would we trade our best starting pitching prospect when it looks like he will join the rotation next year, and we'll need starting pitching help next year?

 

My inital reaction is please no, but let's look and see if you agree.

 

Both could MAYBE bring back Joey Lucchesi.  I'd rather have Balazovic in the rotation next year than Lucchesi. Hard pass.

 

Those two are not going to get you Noah Syndergaard. We'd have to throw in Lewis. Hard pass.

 

Fair trade would be Jordan Balazovic for one year of Marcus Stroman, right now. Would you do that? I most certainly would be ticked if the Twins did that. Hard, hard pass. 

 

What about Larnach for Sean Manaea? That I would do. 

 

What about Larnach for Charlie Morton (if you can pry him away from the Rays, I would do this too, even though Morton isn't cheap)

[dex8425]

 

 In Fangraphs new prospect list, it says he "pretty firmly projects as a No. 4 starter right now".  Duran is "tracking like a mid-rotation starter".   

Is Fangraphs just really conservative on projecting guys to be top of the rotation?  Or are the expectations on here too optimistic?  

I think Graterol was listed as mid-rotation, too.  I haven't followed Fangraphs enough to know how they rate pitchers, but they seem pretty conservative to me.  

 

They seem to use "stuff" as the projection. That's why Smeltzer was never a top prospect. Balazovic's "stuff" is not as good as Graterol's. But, he has really good feel for four pitches and understands how to pitch. 

 

Pitchers can pitch above their projection (see, Dobnak, Randy) if they have elite command and a good plan. Pitchers can also underperform their ranking (see Thorpe, Lewis) if they have great stuff but not great command or are just "throwing" instead of "pitching."