José Berríos Losing Arbitration Case Provides Reason for Concern Over Long-Term Future with Twins

[Matthew Taylor]

Earlier today, Jon Heyman reported that Jose Berríos lost his arbitration case and will be paid $4.025M in 2020 as opposed to the $4.4M that he was seeking. Should Twins fans be worried about this impacting Berríos’s long-term future with the Twins?To recap how arbitration works, when an MLB player has more than three years of service time he becomes arbitration eligible. Each offseason, arbitration eligible players and their teams will each submit a salary that they feel the player warrants. This offseason, Berríos submitted a salary of $4.4M and the Twins submitted a salary of $4.025M. The two sides were unable to come to a mutual agreement, so they submitted their cases in front of a panel of arbitrators who ruled in favor of the Minnesota Twins.

 

After hearing about the Twins going to arbitration with Berríos over $375,000, it’s easy to be worried about Minnesota's long-term relationship with their ace. Especially with all of the other factors that have come into play over the past year.

 

If you’ll remember, last season the Twins traded middle reliever, Mike Morin, to the Philadelphia Phillies. While this was seemingly a very small transaction involving a marginal middle reliever, Berríos was clearly upset, sending a (later deleted) tweetabout how the Twins only care about money.

 

Next, the Minnesota Twins made an agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers to trade away Brusdar Graterol for Dodgers’ starting pitcher, Kenta Maeda. While Berríos hasn’t spoken publicly or indicated in any way that he was frustrated with the trade, it’s fair to speculate that he may be frustrated with the organization trading away someone he was close with. In a Star Tribune piece by Chris Hine, Berríos relishes being a mentor to Graterol saying, “It’s amazing, meeting people like him, now I have the opportunity to bring him my experience, my day-by-day. He’s in the same clubhouse now and we’re teammates. I’ve always heard about him. He’s got really good stuff, but I never had the chance to see him pitch. It’s amazing the things he’s doing out there.”

 

While neither of these events seems like a big deal in isolation, when combined with taking Berríos to arbitration over just $375,000 there is valid reason to be concerned. In the arbitration process, teams will tear down the performance of their players in order to convince arbitrators that they should rule in the team’s favor. This can be an awkward process and certainly leave players disenchanted.

 

While there have certainly been cases of players who went to arbitration and went on to sign long-term deals with teams, in Berríos’s case there are reasons to believe that things could be souring and should be some concern over his long-term future with the Minnesota Twins.

 

What do you think about Berríos’s long-term future with the Minnesota Twins? Do you think the events over the past year, culminating with his arbitration case, have put his future with the Twins into doubt? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

 

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[howieramone2]

We need Berrios in 2020 and 2021. He's replaceable thereafter. Let's not pretend we didn't know this day may come. Extending Buxton at some point in time, is much more important.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Should Twins fans be worried about this impacting Berríos’s long-term future with the Twins?

 

No more today than yesterday or a month ago... This is just baseball business... 

[Otwins]

Probably the players union wanting Berrios to push his case and the owners wanting to hold the current standard as much as Berrios vs Twins.

[Twins1964]

 

Probably the players union wanting Berrios to push his case and the owners wanting to hold the current standard as much as Berrios vs Twins.

What ? Your comment is so far out from left field it is amazing. Nothing here about collusion. Just money. Twins will not sign Berríos to a long term deal. He will strive for great numbers going forward and ride off into the sunset as soon as he is a free agent.

 

 

 

[Brandon]

He was happy we drafted him and seems to be looking to move on ever since.

[oregontwin]

Old guy kinda wishing for old days as a fan. Reality bites, no matter who's ass is under the teeth.

[Otwins]

These are quotes from MLB trade rumors report on Berrios salary arbitration case-

" The Twins, like other clubs that have drawn a hard line in comparable situations, surely care less about immediate cost savings than they do about preserving the standards that allow arbitration salaries to remain so manageable.

 

"If the Twins (and every other club) simply conceded and met the player in the middle, those contractual agreements would be used as data points in future arbitration"

 

 

From the Berrios side-

"it’s surely no coincidence that the number he filed would’ve bested the aforementioned Willis benchmark — even if only by a narrow margin of $50,000. Again, every slight step forward would factor into future negotiations for other first-time-eligible pitchers. "

 

Twins 1964 at least move me over from left field to centerfield. I agree with Seth's comment. 

 

[Jeff_M]

I like Berrios as a person - seems like a nice guy and hard worker.  That said, if 2020 goes like last season, I wouldn't be sad to see him go.  I'm tired of the constant, frankly farcical reference to this guy as an "ace".  He pitched many sucky games last season, and except for a couple of dominant outings, was middling overall.  No ace.

[KirbyDome89]

Both MLBTR and TD had projections higher than what Berrios submitted. They're not gospel, but dragging a guy you need to extend to an arbitration hearing over 300K seems to be losing the forest for the trees. 

[Richard Swerdlick]

Maybe this will inspire Jose to pitch even better and prove the FO wrong. The FO is clearly not in love with Jose, and they don't need to be. Winning can heal a lot of wounds and if Jose has a great year, the big payday will be there for him if he wants to stay with us. Otherwise......

[Mr. Brooks]

I like Berrios as a person - seems like a nice guy and hard worker. That said, if 2020 goes like last season, I wouldn't be sad to see him go. I'm tired of the constant, frankly farcical reference to this guy as an "ace". He pitched many sucky games last season, and except for a couple of dominant outings, was middling overall. No ace.

Except he wasn't middling overall.

He had an ERA 24% better than league average. While not quite in the elite bracket, that's firmly in the very good bracket.

 

If you want to move on from every pitcher who isn't an ace, you're going to have a hard time filling out a rotation.

 

Of every player on the roster, I think Berrios absence would be the toughest to recover from.

[cardsfan]

Berrios is taking a risk if he thinks that he can be one of the few pitchers not having a major arm injury after pitching 6.5 years throwing an average fastball of 94 MPh in the big leagues.

[rdehring]

 

What ? Your comment is so far out from left field it is amazing. Nothing here about collusion. Just money. Twins will not sign Berríos to a long term deal. He will strive for great numbers going forward and ride off into the sunset as soon as he is a free agent.

The quotes I have seen indicate that this may have been more the agent working to set a new limit for future cases.  Obviously, Berrios would be aware of his agents position.  But should this minor difference in the big picture make any difference to their future, no.

[Lefty]

He is clearly our top guy. We haven't been able to get someone of his caliber anywhere near the front door of our clubhouse thru trade or free agency. They need to take care of him. I'd build around him long term, he is still a super young talent. Lock him up.

[Doctor Gast]

Berrios is a type of person who takes pride in what does & takes stock about his future. He will continually get better which makes me sad because it looks like he`s not satisfied here & he`ll go after the big bucks as soon as he can, while we watch his rise to stardom else where.

I was looking forward to Berrios taking Graterol under his wing, I really believe it would`ve been a great relationship & a reason for Berrios to stick around. Now Graterol is gone, by these recent conditions it looks like Berrios will shake off the dirt from his cleats & move on. Aces don`t come along to MN very often so the FO office should taken this into consideration before trading Graterol.

 Berrios is a professional & will play his heart out as long he`s a Twin

[chpettit19]

This is much ado about nothing. Like Seth said, this is just how the system works. It's about trying to set new precedent. It's not about the difference only being about 300k this year for the Twins, it's about if they give in on that 300k this year it shows the arbitors that players of this level are worth more than what they've been granting players to this point. 4.35m is the top end for first time arbitration eligibile starting pitchers. Right now the teams are winning basically every time (Keuchel beat it after winning the Cy Young) when a player tries to go above that. If the Twins give in and go higher then next year the arbitors will go with the higher number.

 

This is simply the business side of baseball and Berrios has been very open from early on that he understands the business side and he is more than happy to push things and is not taking any perceived discounts. It is no coincidence that he went with 4.4 instead of 4.3. He's trying to extend the upper limit just a little for future players. Absolutely driven by the players union. Them going through arbitration with him didn't improve or hurt their chances of extending him. He has been very open that if the team brings him a market level deal he is willing to consider it. He's just not taking a discount to extend. 

[BodieInSD]

 

We need Berrios in 2020 and 2021. He's replaceable thereafter. Let's not pretend we didn't know this day may come. Extending Buxton at some point in time, is much more important.

How many Gaterols do we have to trade away to get a "comparable" (or lesser) pitcher like Maeda?  He is young, reasonably durable and a MUCH above average pitcher.  So he isn't your idea of an "ace".

He IS the closest thing the Twins have to one!  And that isn't going to change in the foreseeable future.  Quit making the perfect the enemy of the pretty darned good!

 

And call me when Buxton shows he's an everyday player.  He hasn't earned anything as far as an extension.  Sure hope he does, but he ain't yet!  Lets see 140 games in ONE season from him.

[AceWrigley]

 

Probably the players union wanting Berrios to push his case and the owners wanting to hold the current standard as much as Berrios vs Twins.

Or agent/agency, Agreed. It's not collusion or anything, just business. I also don't think this negatively impacts a potential multi-year contract. But I also think José would like a crack at free agency. The combination of his effectiveness, consistency and durability is attractive to every team in baseball.

[Shaitan]

I wouldn't base his future on a couple of deleted tweets and a business decision. (Most) people aren't that fickle.

[mikelink45]

Here is my take - from an old guy who has seen every financial dispute in Twins history from my fan perspective.  If the Twins move now, they can say to Berrios, here is how to make up for that loss in arbitration - sign an extension.  You will get security, you will make up for that blip, and we can all move forward together!

 

As to those who keep saying he isn't an Ace - what is your point.  This isn't a card game.  He is our number one - tell me who is better or even close.  That makes him our ace until we can sign one of the over priced free agents.  Yes he has some bad stretches - all players do - that is why we have the term slump.  But do not undervalue the best pitcher we have and I mean the best.  No matter how well Rogers or any other RP throws, the starter is still the most valuable commodity in baseball and a lot of teams would love to have Jose.

[IAMNFan]

I get it, Berrios is one of ours.  He is a solid #2 pitcher.  I truly hope he takes another step and becomes a top notch #2.  I think he and his agent are looking for #1 money at this point.  Call me crazy, but I think the front office is well served to wait this out and see if he can put together a complete season and prove that he is what he thinks he is.  His durability so far suggests that a longer term deal will be ok.  Lets just make sure the $ matches performance. 

Obviously management believes that 5 or 6 #2 or #3 starters is good enough with this offense.  They may go after a #1 at some point, but they have shown the ability to accumulate #2 & #3 starters.  

It is a business and I think both sides are smart enough to work through the process.

[Tyler Roepke]

I thought I read something where he said he wasn't upset with the Twins about the arbitration case and understands the business part of baseball. Sorry I don't have the link but it might have been from mlbtraderumors.com. Very similar to what he said when they ended talks about about an extension last year. He should understand that they have assembled a good team even though he might not personally like some of these decisions, it is clear this front office is trying to win a World Series. 

[sconnytwinsfan]

This arbitration outcome has ZERO to do with Berrios being happy or unhappy here.  The Twins taking their stand has nothing to do with their perceived value of him and his arbitration number has nothing to do with his precise belief in HIS value.  It is all about the players trying to push up the HIGH POINT for a first year arbitration eligible starter and the owners trying to prevent that from happening.  The Twins aren't trying to save $375,000...they are trying to preserve a system that allows them to keep cheap talent for these arbitration years.

 

Also...him not signing long term is because he has three seasons remaining and he expects to be one of the top arms on the market when the time comes.  He is betting on himself to build his value.  He is trying to maximize his value before he signs. That is a GOOD sign considering we've got him for these three years in an open window winning cycle.

 

Keep calm!  The window's open and the Twins are definitely in a position to contend for each of the next three years while he works his butt off to become a Cy Young starter.

[Matthew Taylor]

 

I thought I read something where he said he wasn't upset with the Twins about the arbitration case and understands the business part of baseball. Sorry I don't have the link but it might have been from mlbtraderumors.com. Very similar to what he said when they ended talks about about an extension last year. He should understand that they have assembled a good team even though he might not personally like some of these decisions, it is clear this front office is trying to win a World Series. 

 

Doogie Tweeted about this. He did mention that he hasn't spoken with Berrios, though, and that is coming from his agent who may have a better handle on the business end of things and be less emotional about it than Berrios.

[etwink]

I’m not sure what the concern is.  $400K is literally nothing compared to the money he will command.  We can make it up with an extra half-mil on top of a five-year $60M contact (or whatever the price will be) because at that point it’s just decimal points.  Wham, the money thing disappears.

 

As well, I think we are reading into his comments and over-doing the mind reading here.  Have we monkeyed around with his service time?  No.  Have we treated him like anything other than our most important pitcher?  No.  Have we suddenly added another guy who could vie for his “ace” role?  No.  Has he lost some buddies to the business of trying to win baseball games?  Yes.  Is he really that naive that he thinks this is just a beer league where wins don’t matter?  Nothing I’ve read suggests that he’s that clueless.

[jkcarew]

I don't think the arbitration outcome impacts how the future plays out in any way.

 

But I do think the arbitration process presented us a snapshot of where the parties are at this particular time. And it doesn't seem that they are close. Still time. Seems Jose is betting on himself, and seems that the Twins are not yet ready to go to the elite money level for him. Both seem reasonable positions to me, but it also seems that the better Jose does in 2020/2021, the less likely he is to stick here beyond free agency. I guess that could be looked at as a good thing.

[Darius]

Why do you have to set a precedent here?

 

Players have historically been treated differently. Sano, for example, would’ve been jettisoned for behavior/commitment issues a long time if he wasn’t such a monster at the plate. Players get extended at different times for different sized contracts.

 

IMO, “setting a precedent” isn’t really what’s going on here. It certainly is about the money. Let’s be honest.

 

This team is starved for high-end pitching. Our only shot at that going forward is Berrios, at the moment. A gesture of goodwill here could’ve gone a long way, in terms of expressing commitment.

 

Really stupid hill to die on for the FO. The funny thing is that they probably paid more in legal services, FO salaries, overhead, etc. throughout the process than they saved.

[drivlikejehu]

There's zero reason to think Berrios would now refuse to sign an extension that met his demands. The issue is that he wants more than the Twins think is reasonable.

 

So the arbitration issue is a nothing-burger.

[iowaguychris]

Lets be real - he IS being underpaid right now by #1 starting pitcher standards.  That doesn't mean the Twins are necessarily doing anything wrong - thats how the system works!  However - I'd be curious what sort of offers we have made to him for a long term contract - something that would buy out his first 2 years of free agency.  He's worthy of a deal - even if he continues his second half fades, he should be in the $8-$10 M range at a minimum.  I'd rather overpay a bit now, to have a good value in years 3-5 of the deal.