Graterol Trade On Hold? Valuing Starters and Relievers

[sweetmusicviola16]

The latest is that Boston is trying to reconfigure the deal with the Twins, "meaning more than Graterol". 

 

Even though I'm in the camp of the price of Graterol for Maeda is too steep for the Twins I can live with the deal. But if the deal is more than Graterol we should move on very quickly. Screw Boston. They won't be competing in 2020 and will lose Betts after 2020 and will still owe an aging Price another 64mil after 2020. Let them lie in the mess they've made. Graterol easily becomes their #1 prospect. Move on Falvine. 

[AZTwin]

The latest is that Boston is trying to reconfigure the deal with the Twins, "meaning more than Graterol".

 

Even though I'm in the camp of the price of Graterol for Maeda is too steep for the Twins I can live with the deal. But if the deal is more than Graterol we should move on very quickly. Screw Boston. They won't be competing in 2020 and will lose Betts after 2020 and will still owe an aging Price another 64mil after 2020. Let them lie in the mess they've made. Graterol easily becomes their #1 prospect. Move on Falvine.

Yeah Graterol for Maeda is a steep price but perhaps fair given Graterols medical history. Any more than that? Forget it. We could use a dominant guy like Graterol in our bullpen this year.

[Otwins]

Maybe redo the deal and keep Graterol.  Substitute a different prospect or two

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think it's just the opposite. Teams don't see "medicals" or schedule physicals until trade parameters are agreed to. That's why we often see "pending physical" when we learn of trades on MLBTradeRumors.

 

And it's why, to the best of my knowledge, this trade was never formally announced by any of the three teams involved. It was reported widely in the media, but by none of the teams.

 

And again...the simplest explanation is, when Boston did see the medicals, they didn't like what they saw. 

 

No PR considerations, no conspiracies, no attempts to squeeze more from the Twins. They just don't like his chances of being a full time MLB reliever. My guess is the shoulder is the problem, not the elbow, but that's pure speculation.

 

Yup, as others have noted... this is correct.

 

Medical records aren't exchanged until a deal is agreed upon in principle. 

 

This is well put. The issue is that like 96% of deals that get announces, the physicals are just a simple matter, but it always says "pending physicals." Teams don't announce the trades until all of that is complete because this type of thing can happen. This isn't on the Red Sox. They got the Graterol medicals probably after the reports of the trade came out... Sure, they knew about his TJ and they knew he missed time last year. They knew the Twins were going to start him in the bullpen. They knew the Twins weren't shutting the door on him being a starter... but their doctors must have seen something they didn't like. Obviously. But this isn't on the teams. IT's not on the player. IT's the process and hopefully now people will understand why teams don't announce things until they are official. 

[AZTwin]

Perhaps send them Luke Raley and Lewis Thorpe instead and keep Graterol

[jorgenswest]

The Twins need to look elsewhere for starting pitching. Maeda is not worth adding to this deal. Keep Graterol. Bet on his upside. Look to move Larnach or Kirilloff for pitching.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

The latest is that Boston is trying to reconfigure the deal with the Twins, "meaning more than Graterol".

 

OK...then a Dobnak, Smeltzer or Thorpe for Maeda and we keep the "Damaged Goods" Graterol? Seems fair?

[ChrisKnutson]

Perhaps send them Luke Raley and Lewis Thorpe instead and keep Graterol

 

Assuming Boston has moved on from Graterol, I think Enlow and Alcala makes more sense, although if was Bloom I’d still be pushing for Gonsolin of the Dodgers.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Boston has NO leverage to negotiate with Minnesota....they are a franchise in crises.

Falvine should be squeezing THEM under the table......

[AZTwin]

Yep. If Boston views him as damaged then they shouldn’t be allowed to keep him and get more. Should be a replacement with other top prospects like a combo of 2 of the following group: Lewis Thorpe, Luke Raley or Nick Gordon

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Falvine: "OK...let's do this...Graterol and Gordon and "XYZ" A+...we get Maeda and Sale?"

[rdehring]

Why does everyone keep wanting to trade Thorpe.  I see him as the answer to one of our pitching problems for the next 6++ years, beginning in April of this year.

 

 

[mlhouse]

What is the basis of this?  Medical?

[Lasorda_This_Out]

I worked at NWA post the Chechi-Wilson era.

The scuttle-butt was that Gary Wilson, co-CEO, had ice-water running through his veins when negotiating? His "opener" for any negotiations would even make Agent Orange blush with it's audacity.

Lesson? When you have the upper hand...go for the jugular.

Twins are in such a position vs Boston....

 

[TwinsFan347]

Someone said this isn't on Boston because they hadn't seen his medical records. Whether or not that is true I'm not sure. What is true is Boston is saying they view him as a SP able to throw 150 - 170 IP and now after seeing the medical reports they think he is a RP. Set the medical reports aside and look at what is public information - Graterol has never thrown more than 102 IP in a season, next highest is 71 IP and the Twins had already announced he would be working out of the BP. This is a negotiating ploy by Boston.

 

The Twins should back out of this deal we don't NEED Maeda, he's good, but we can easily find someone else. The Red Sox are desperate to shed payroll and the Dodgers want Betts for their all in push. The Twins can easily walk away from this deal which I don't really like in the first place, was really looking forward to seeing Graterol pitch this year.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

What is true is Boston is saying they view him as a SP able to throw 150 - 170 IP and now after seeing the medical reports they think he is a RP. Set the medical reports aside and look at what is public information - Graterol has never thrown more than 102 IP in a season, next highest is 71 IP and the Twins had already announced he would be working out of the BP. This is a negotiating ploy by Boston.

 

The innings thing is likely an over-simplification of Boston’s specific concerns about his medicals. There could be something in the medicals that tells Boston there is no path to Graterol *ever* throwing 150 IP in a season (meaning, never going back to starting again).

[Riverbrian]

 

Boston has NO leverage to negotiate with Minnesota....they are a franchise in crises.

Falvine should be squeezing THEM under the table......

 

I'm not a leverage expert but I agree with you. Boston is in the most difficult position. 

 

The Owner declares that they will be under the luxury tax. 

 

After a winter of speculation of a possible Mookie Betts trade... they go ahead and announce to their fan base that they have indeed traded Mookie Betts.

 

The last thing the Red Sox want to do is repeat this process. 

 

We also need to factor in, the Dodgers might be the only team that could take on both Betts and Price, which limits the options that they can pivot to. 

 

IMO... That's enormous pressure on the Red Sox to complete this deal. 

 

Yet... they were the team to pump the breaks. 

 

I don't believe anyone has an upper hand. 

[by jiminy]

The Boston press is hammering the Red Sox even more:

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/everyone-knew-brusdar-graterol-was-damaged-goods-everyone-except-red-sox-apparently

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think it's important not to look at this as a binary situation, like he was 100% destined to be a reliever and the Red Sox should have already known that.

 

Yes, the Twins had said they were going to use Graterol in relief this spring, and we all know his general history. But their stated concerns about his workload and his throwing motion are not that unusual for young pitchers. If that was primarily what was expressed and understood during negotiations with the Red Sox, perhaps they gave him, say, a 30% chance of increasing his workload toward starting again in the foreseeable future.

 

But after seeing the medicals -- what exactly was found in Graterol's shoulder impingement exam last year, and perhaps more importantly, what treatments the Twins pursued and how Graterol's shoulder responded -- maybe the Red Sox saw a notably reduced chance to increase his workload in the foreseeable future (maybe 10%?). Enough to at least pause the trade process while they consider their options. (If the situation was reversed, I think we'd all want our Twins to do the same.)

 

So it doesn't necessarily take any failures or bad actors to lead to where we are now.

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins need to look elsewhere for starting pitching. Maeda is not worth adding to this deal. Keep Graterol. Bet on his upside. Look to move Larnach or Kirilloff for pitching.

Like who, who is available and better?

[FlauerPauer]

 

Like who, who is available and better?

 

And who is as cost effective and has postseason experience?

[TFRazor]

I say screw it, we know Betts and Price are getting moved to the Dodgers. That means LA still needs to free up cap and roster space. I say we do a separate deal with them for Maeda. Hell, tell them we'll take stripling too. And then we can give Boston the old New Jersey "You're number one" finger as we walk away into the sunset

[etwink]

Trade is expected to be official today, per sources.

We’ll all find out whether we’ve another solid rotation piece or keep our solid bullpen piece!

[Vanimal46]

Trade is expected to be official today, per sources.

We’ll all find out whether we’ve another solid rotation piece or keep our solid bullpen piece!

I saw the Betts/Price portion of the trade is finalized. Nothing on Graterol/Maeda yet?

[Diesel]

The Red Sox apparently want ANOTHER top 10 prospect to accommodate for Graterol. Maeda isn’t worth that. Not even close. I would toss in Nick Gordon, but that’s about it

[Halsey Hall]

 

Graterol was on the fields here with the Twins this morning.  so...........................

[Bill Tanner]

 

I saw the Betts/Price portion of the trade is finalized. Nothing on Graterol/Maeda yet?

Vanimal, where are you seeing that the Red Sox/Dodgers portion is official?  Interesting.  So, Verdugo and Maeda would be currently Red Sox.  In that case, Twins leverage is lower than some might have perceived, as Boston could just plug Maeda into their rotation.

[TwinsFan347]

If it's true that Boston is asking for an additional top 10 prospect the Twins need to run away from this mess.

 

We are getting a 32 yr old solid SP, in no way is he worth more than Graterol. The Red Sox and Dodgers can figure this out and we'll have Graterol throwing fire out of the BP.

 

Also, isn't it interesting that Boston is so concerned about Graterol's health, but yet they still want him in the deal.   

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I saw the Betts/Price portion of the trade is finalized. Nothing on Graterol/Maeda yet?

Nothing is finalized yet. And I'm guessing all parts of the deal / related deals will be finalized at the same time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, there is some more recent activity and discussion in the forum thread here:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/36318-boston-getting-cold-feet-graterols-health-puts-blockbuster-on-pause/page-6