Boston getting cold feet - Graterol's health puts blockbuster on pause

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Since they're getting Verdugo I doubt they want another outfielder. Benintendi is under control for three years and they have Jackie Bradley too

Bradley is a FA after the season, and was previously rumored to be a contract they'd like to shed too ($11 mil in his final arb season).

 

And to be fair, I was the one who first brought up Raley here, just as a random lower top 30 org prospect that might be in play. So blame me. I also said Jax, if you prefer.

[nicksaviking]

 

But this came out just before Heyman's tweet, which doesn't seem to suggest such a big impediment:

 

 

That one notably does not mention Maeda or the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That one notably does not mention Maeda or the Twins.

Good catch! Not sure what that means, if anything...

 

Edit to add: probably just a Twitter character limit issue.

[RaoulDuke]

I think it will be a Javier/ Gordon type.  Sucks they have to pay more but apparently there is something big in Graterol's medicals.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Fangraphs most recent list ...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-43-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

Might want to double check that.....(Gaterol isn't on the list, but if the deal falls thru, he'll be back), but Balazovic is a 50.......and they aren't dealing him.

[Dman]

 

That one notably does not mention Maeda or the Twins.

 

LA has some nice pitching prospects in the top 100.  Maybe someone Boston likes better?  They could easily cut the Twins out it just seemed better for them with the Twins in as they can get rid of Maeda and not have to pay in prospects.  Maybe they can trade Maeda to somebody else for more?  They don't need pitching as badly as we do.

 

Or the Dodgers could keep Graterol and send one of their pitchers Boston likes better over to them.  Lots of things could happen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-43-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

Might want to double check that.....(Gaterol isn't on the list, but if the deal falls thru, he'll be back), but Balazovic is a 50.......and they aren't dealing him.

Good catch. I was still looking at their "2019 Updated" list. I deleted my post.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah but at that point, there are presumably other Twins pitching prospects with similar value. If Graterol is just another guy, it seems like it's starting from scratch, he would be irrelevant.

Perhaps, but the only Twins pitching prospects with similar value as pre-medicals Graterol are Duran and Balazovic, and maybe they've already been deemed off-limits in these discussions?

 

Generally I agree with you, though, I can't see the Twins adding another 45 FV piece, at least not without also receiving another piece from LA.

[jkcarew]

 

LOL, Boston has zero negotiating leverage in this situation.

 

Asking for another "top prospect" from the Twins is hilarious.

Why doesn't Boston have leverage? They probably feel like they 'have' to deal Betts...and want very badly to make the Price deal. But it doesn't have to involve the Twins. Heck, they could simply decide to take Maeda instead of Graterol. Done. Lot's of things could happen that would take the need for the Twins participation out of the equation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Heck, they could simply decide to take Maeda instead of Graterol. Done.

That would be interesting, and considering Maeda's contract, very plausible.

[SarasotaBill]

Just Say NO to anything more.

 

Dodgers badly want Betts.

Red Sox badly want to trade Price & Betts.

 

Twins can walk away and be fine.

 

[mnfireman]

The Red Sox true colors showed through. They are feeeling the fan base pressure and want more from the Twins. I say NO. The Twins deal was with the Dodgers, not the Red Sox. No new prospects, players or money from the Twins. The Sox fleeced the Twins by signing Ortiz and think they can do it again. 

[Dman]

 

Why doesn't Boston have leverage? They probably feel like they 'have' to deal Betts...and want very badly to make the Price deal. But it doesn't have to involve the Twins. Heck, they could simply decide to take Maeda instead of Graterol. Done. Lot's of things could happen that would take the need for the Twins participation out of the equation.

 

They could do that but it doesn't make much sense if they are trying to shed money.  If Maeda pitches well he will cost them 10M for the year and with Boston paying 15M for Price that equals 25 M for about the same level of pitching.  Why not just keep Price at that point?  If Maeda doesn't make the 10M incentives then all they got for Mookie is an Outfielder.  I think they really want to go young and inexpensive with upside.  Makes more sense if trying to get below the cap.  I don't see Maeda as an option for them personally.

[nicksaviking]

 

Good catch! Not sure what that means, if anything...

 

Edit to add: probably just a Twitter character limit issue.

 

Probably nothing. Bob Nightengale has always seemed to have a strong LA focus. The Twins are an afterthought most likely.

 

Edit: He did it again in his follow up Tweet:

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Probably nothing. Bob Nightengale has always seemed to have a strong LA focus. The Twins are an afterthought most likely.

 

Edit: He did it again in his follow up Tweet:

 

If there was news that it was on the verge of becoming a two-team trade, I think he'd mention it, as that means more is coming from the Dodgers, probably... maybe Maeda, maybe someone else.

 

That alone is mention-worthy from either side.

[jkcarew]

 

They could do that but it doesn't make much sense if they are trying to shed money.  If Maeda pitches well he will cost them 10M for the year and with Boston paying 15M for Price that equals 25 M for about the same level of pitching.  Why not just keep Price at that point?  If Maeda doesn't make the 10M incentives then all they got for Mookie is an Outfielder.  I think they really want to go young and inexpensive with upside.  Makes more sense if trying to get below the cap.  I don't see Maeda as an option for them personally.

?? Price is due over $30M base this year. Maeda's base is $3M and change. Even with incentives, it's not close. The simple act of holding Price costs you an incremental amount that is at least 50% greater than what Maeda will cost you even if he's great. There's no way to look at Maeda's contract as anything but attractive. Certainly plausible enough to qualify as leverage.

[Dman]

 

?? Price is due over $30M base this year. Maeda's base is $3M and change. Even with incentives, that's not anywhere close to what Price costs. It's a huge difference. And the point is, it's leverage whether anyone "thinks" they would do it or not.

 

Right but the Red Sox are paying half of Prices salary regardless of whether he pitches in Boston or not so that is 15M spent no matter what.  With incentives Meada made 8M last year and can make up 10 or 11M depending on how many innings he makes it.  So best case scenario for Boston is he pitches well and earns the 10M plus add in the 15M for Price and it equals 25M total.  Why not just keep Price at 30M then?

[Doctor Gast]

The thing is that LA doesn`t want to give up a top 100 pitching prospect  & they want to dump Maeda (smart). Boston doesn`t  want Maeda (smart). Boston likes Graterol , LA could get him on the cheap to trade to Boston. Boston got the best part of the deal overall but their fans made a fuss. I know, I made a fuss when the Twins use to deal a great player for a couple prospect, I couldn`t fathom the value of prospects. But now I do, Boston got the best of the deal & now they want more, excuse me! Boston wants a top 100 pitching prospect (ridiculous) maybe LA will they`ll find someone to trade Maeda to a team for a top 100 (I doubt it) maybe they`ll compromise & send them 1 close to the top 100. If they both want it bad enough it`ll happen. Boston has the most to lose

[Squirrel]

 

Okay, so this seems more specific:

 

 

Good. They should say no.

[Squirrel]

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-43-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

Might want to double check that.....(Gaterol isn't on the list, but if the deal falls thru, he'll be back), but Balazovic is a 50.......and they aren't dealing him.

Nor should they. Not for Maeda.

[jkcarew]

 

Right but the Red Sox are paying half of Prices salary regardless of whether he pitches in Boston or not so that is 15M spent no matter what.  With incentives Meada made 8M last year and can make up 10 or 11M depending on how many innings he makes it.  So best case scenario for Boston is he pitches well and earns the 10M plus 15for Prices equals 25M total.  Why not just keep Price at 30M then?

The simple act of holding Price costs you an incremental amount that is at least 50% greater than what Maeda will cost you even if he's great. There's no way to look at Maeda's contract as anything but attractive. Certainly plausible enough to qualify as leverage.

[Squirrel]

 

That would be interesting, and considering Maeda's contract, very plausible.

This is what I've been wondering all along ... why did we need to be in this? It just seems weird.

 

And, my friends who are fans of both the Red Sox and Dodgers are blaming the Twins for the hold up. Um. No. Get on with it.

[Dman]

 

The simple act of holding Price costs you an incremental amount that is at least 50% greater than what Maeda will cost you even if he's great. There's no way to look at Maeda's contract as anything but attractive. Certainly plausible enough to qualify as leverage.

 

If it was True leverage the Twins would have never been involved in the first place as Boston would have just taken Maeda.  They didn't so I think that speaks for itself.  

 

The one benefit Boston would gain in your Scenario is that they only pay for performance.  With Prices contract they pay 30M whether he pitches or not.  if Maeda can't pitch they only pay approximately 18M versus 30M for Price but that is a worse case scenario.  Wouldn't it be better to have a young pitcher with upside.  I think Boston thinks so.

[bunsen82]

My stance is this, Graterol is likely the highest ceiling pitcher that the Red Sox or Dodgers can get for Maeda.  I think the Red Sox really want Graterol, they just got cold feet with the reception and are trying to save face.  Whether a minor addition like a #40 prospect in are system is added in, I could care less but nothing more and see if the Red Sox cave.  The Dodgers will not be added any of their top pitchers to the trade.  

 

As to the trade, we are trading with the Dodgers.  We are not involved with the trade with the Red Sox so the tweet above means nothing in the grand scheme of things. 

 

We will see how much do the twins either really want to trade graterol and/or how much they really want maeda if they add an additional prospect. 

[jkcarew]

 

If it was True leverage the Twins would have never been involved in the first place as Boston would have just taken Maeda.  They didn't so I think that speaks for itself.

Conclusion...the Red Sox have no leverage? We'll see.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If it was True leverage the Twins would have never been involved in the first place as Boston would have just taken Maeda. They didn't so I think that speaks for itself.

 

They likely preferred the prospect but Maeda could be an acceptable plan B. Especially if they just plan to flip him later.

[Dman]

 

Conclusion...the Red Sox have no leverage? We'll see.

 

They have leverage as long we want Meada. How badly do we want him and what is his defined value and will the FO pay more than that just to get him this year.  That is the question but I don't believe the Red Sox want him, no.

[Dman]

 

They likely preferred the prospect but Maeda could be an acceptable plan B. Especially if they just plan to flip him later.

 

Risky, but if he pitches well and doesn't get injured he would be a very attractive piece at the deadline.  Not sure how their fan-base would react to that.  Getting a 32 year old pitcher and potentially not helping your cap situation might be a tougher sell than a getting a young top 100 prospect in Graterol.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Good. They should say no.

 

Exactly! For Maeda???

No thanks. Graterol is already close to an overpay for this guy. Good gravy, there's a mountain of guys out there that profile like this Maeda dude. 

 

You want Graterol plus another top 10 prospect? Fine cough up Urias or Buehler then and have Boston eat all of Prices deal. Something.

 

You want someone else, take your pick from a list of 5-6 guys outside of our top 20. 

[bighat]

Update from MLB Trade Rumors:

 

"February 7: The trade is expected to become official today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets, citing sources from multiple teams involved in the deal. Completion of the Betts blockbuster would serve as a precursor for the finalization of the Dodgers’ Pederson/Stripling trade with the Angels as well."