Boston getting cold feet - Graterol's health puts blockbuster on pause

[nicksaviking]

 

Here's the report I believe you are referring to:

 

 

Seems kind of second-hand, so I'd take it with a grain of salt at this point.

 

Yeah, "top" prospect is a pretty arbitrary term. I'm not inclined to give up more than what has already been agreed to, but Boston might just be looking for another token piece to save face.

 

I wonder how long the Twins have been involved in this deal. I'm wondering if getting Maeda has been a discussion the Twins have been having with the Dodgers for awhile now and if it falls through if they'll look elsewhere.

 

Seems like they'd be motivated to seek out another trade now that this has become so public.

[nicksaviking]

 

I find it hard to believe Boston was gob-smacked by something in Graterol's medicals. 

 

Yeah, this is why I don't think Boston's new hesitation holds up. I could understand if the medicals show that he has a higher expectation for injury, but what exactly do the medicals show that says he's a reliever, not a starter? Maybe there's an explanation, but I'd sure like to hear it.

 

Starter vs. reliever seems like it would be based on all the things you'd find in a scouting report and video analysis. Which they already would have had.

[bones]

The last time we saw Graterol pitch he looked great.  I think it's fair to assume the medical team in Boston is making their decision based on his X-rays and shoulder MRI's from last summer.  Their most likely concern based on no inside information just his history is that he has a morphologic variant of his acromion that could predispose him to problem with his rotator cuff and impingement.  Many think MRI's  are the holy grail in determining a pitchers future risk for problems but they are not. Plenty of pitchers with these variants go on to never need surgery and have successful careers and plenty of normal MRI's go on to have major problems.  (If you ever hear thoracic outlet syndrome again - know that the player and the surgeon are grasping at straws with a normal MRI.)  If you put 10 shoulder specialists in a room and asked them to look at his films I guarantee you would have a wide variety of opinions. Long winded way of saying don't assume that all three medical teams in this trade agree on relative risk.  It is much like predicting any prospects potential - his medical future is also difficult to predict.

[Shaitan]

 

Maeda is too good a deal just to walk away from. Keep negotiating. No doubt we have a walk away price just as we did in free agency, but I would keep talking. We can afford an overpay with prospect capital.

 

Kenta Maeda: the next Jaime Garcia?

[howieramone2]

Offer them just enough to save face. A Trevor May or The Turtle type.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I guess it's not a big deal if the front office is able to dish off a prospect they don't particularly like but as someone who wasn't ecstatic about the deal in the first place, moving Graterol+ instead of Graterol takes some of the shine off the move.

[USAFChief]

 

Offer them just enough to save face. A Trevor May or The Turtle type.

Trevor May and the Turtle are not remotely close to the same type.

[Dman]

Trade rumors says formal announcement later today.  I wonder what changes they made to get the deal done?  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota-twins

[SpicyGarvSauce]

LOL, Boston has zero negotiating leverage in this situation.

 

Asking for another "top prospect" from the Twins is hilarious.

[gunnarthor]

I hope the twins don't give up more. Make other trades but don't make things better for Boston.

[nicksaviking]

Is it wrong that my desire for the Twins to get a good deal is equal to my desire for Boston fans to be upset by whatever happens?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, this is why I don't think Boston's new hesitation holds up. I could understand if the medicals show that he has a higher expectation for injury, but what exactly do the medicals show that says he's a reliever, not a starter? Maybe there's an explanation, but I'd sure like to hear it.

 

Starter vs. reliever seems like it would be based on all the things you'd find in a scouting report and video analysis. Which they already would have had.

Starter vs reliever would also depend on what exactly they found in his shoulder exams last year and how his shoulder responded to treatment. If his shoulder hasn't responded well enough to stretch out for longer outings, that kind of puts the kibosh on any plans to ease him back into starting in the near future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, "top" prospect is a pretty arbitrary term.

Even if that report is true, I'd guess "top prospect" is being used more like "top 30 org prospect" than anything close to Graterol level.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And keep in mind: if Boston asks us for Raley or Jax, in addition to Graterol, there's nothing stopping the Twins from asking the Dodgers for something additional too to offset that, likely one of their top 30 prospects.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Trade rumors says formal announcement later today.  I wonder what changes they made to get the deal done?  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota-twins

It's also possible no changes are made. Boston could have seen issues in the medicals and wanted more time to review them with their doctors, coaches, etc. who will be charting Graterol's course in their organization.

 

It's certainly possible they could have wanted an additional prospect thrown in, but it feels like that talk has been more speculation caused by the delay than actual confirmation.

[Dman]

 

It's also possible no changes are made. Boston could have seen issues in the medicals and wanted more time to review them with their doctors, coaches, etc. who will be charting Graterol's course in their organization.

 

It's certainly possible they could have wanted an additional prospect thrown in, but it feels like that talk has been more speculation caused by the delay than actual confirmation.

 

Yeah I am over reacting a bit.  I just thought the original deal seemed fair and Boston is getting a heck of deal as it is so to ask for more riled me up some.  Have to wait and see how this turns out first before getting more worked up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah I am over reacting a bit.  I just thought the original deal seemed fair and Boston is getting a heck of deal as it is so to ask for more riled me up some.  Have to wait and see how this turns out first before getting more worked up.

No worries, you're not alone. But it wouldn't surprise me if the original deal went through as planned.

[markos]

 

Yeah, this is why I don't think Boston's new hesitation holds up. I could understand if the medicals show that he has a higher expectation for injury, but what exactly do the medicals show that says he's a reliever, not a starter? Maybe there's an explanation, but I'd sure like to hear it.

 

Starter vs. reliever seems like it would be based on all the things you'd find in a scouting report and video analysis. Which they already would have had.

The medical history that teams provide are extremely comprehensive - and go beyond just x-rays and MRIs. It probably included every interaction Graterol had with the Twins medical staff, including treatments the Twins have tried for injuries both official (on the IL) and not (soreness between starts), as well as issues reported and treated during the offseason.

 

It wouldn't shock me that, in addition to yellow-flags from the MRIs and/or X-Rays, Graterol may have had a longer history of shoulder soreness than is publicly available (but documented in his medicals), as well as history of various treatment options that were tried and failed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Okay, so this seems more specific:

 

[akmanak]

If they want more than Gat than squash the deal. I like the idea of Maeda pitching for the Twins but also they need to be realistic on what he is actually worth.

 

If this deal falls through than simply roll the dice which with the current rotation it might be pretty sketch until June.

[drivlikejehu]

If Graterol is that worthless to them, why would the Red Sox even care if he stayed in the deal at all?

 

Really hard to see this as legit behavior on their part.

[dex8425]

 

Okay, so this seems more specific:

 

Tell them HECK to the no. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Okay, so this seems more specific:

 

 

You'll get Matt Wisler and you'll like it.

[dex8425]

 

If they want more than Gat than squash the deal. I like the idea of Maeda pitching for the Twins but also they need to be realistic on what he is actually worth.

If this deal falls through than simply roll the dice which with the current rotation it might be pretty sketch until June.

Thankfully we are in the position that we don't NEED Maeda in the rotation. A rotation of Berrios, Odo, Bailey, Chacin and one rookie is acceptable. At least acceptable enough that the Twins can say they are backing out on the deal and won't give more to the Red Sox. 

[Dman]

 

Okay, so this seems more specific:

 

 

Yeah gotta say if I'm the Twins I would say Peace, we out.  Good luck finding someone who will give up that much for Maeda.  I looked at the top 100 on MLB.com and I can't think of a single team that would be willing to give up their top 100 pitcher for him.  If they think they can find a better deal or if the Dodgers want to do this without the Twins I say go for it. 

 

If they will take someone like Raley or maybe Wade I could see bending as we have too many outfielders anyway.  If they are willing to take a flier on a GCL guy sure but top 10 seems harsh.  Seems like they don't really want to make the deal to me then.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Graterol is that worthless to them, why would the Red Sox even care if he stayed in the deal at all?

 

Really hard to see this as legit behavior on their part.

To be fair, it might take two 45 FV prospects to match the value of one 50 FV. And the difference in Fangraphs prospect value estimates from 50 FV to 45 FV is steep, $21 mil to $6 mil.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But this came out just before Heyman's tweet, which doesn't seem to suggest such a big impediment:

 

[dex8425]

 

Yeah gotta say if I'm the Twins I would say Peace, we out.  Good luck finding someone who will give up that much for Maeda.  I looked at the top 100 on MLB.com and I can't think of a single team that would be willing to give up their top 100 pitcher for him.  If they think they can find a better deal or if the Dodgers want to do this without the Twins I say go for it. 

 

If they will take someone like Raley or maybe Wade I could see bending as we have too many outfielders anyway.  If they are willing to take a flier on a GCL guy sure but top 10 seems harsh.  Seems like they don't really want to make the deal to me then.

Since they're getting Verdugo I doubt they want another outfielder. Benintendi is under control for three years and they have Jackie Bradley too

[jkcarew]

Levine to Flavey....

 

"who knew anyone looked at the medical records!?"

[drivlikejehu]

 

To be fair, it might take two 45 FV prospects to match the value of one 50 FV. And the difference in Fangraphs prospect value estimates from 50 FV to 45 FV is steep, $21 mil to $6 mil.

 

Yeah but at that point, there are presumably other Twins pitching prospects with similar value. If Graterol is just another guy, it seems like it's starting from scratch, he would be irrelevant.