Boston getting cold feet - Graterol's health puts blockbuster on pause

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not in love with this Maeda cat

"Cat"? I like the beatnik take on the trade!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

LA and Boston have things to lose.

 

 

Absolutely, both LA & Boston have a lot to lose. 

 

LA and Boston can still likely make the trade without us. LA can include one of their own prospects and/or take on more cash (and/or trade Maeda to another team for an additional prospect -- surely the Twins aren't the only team that would be interested in Maeda on this contract).

[dex8425]

I'm sure it will get done without having to switch the pieces, but would we rather give up Thorpe for Maeda? I would do that trade. I doubt Boston would. 

[Dman]

I am not worried if the Twins get written out of this trade. Maeda wasn't a huge needle mover as it is.  Who cares if Graterol's trade value sinks for the moment.  One good to great year as a reliever and all that talk is out the window.  I'll take the 6 years of good to elite reliever if Boston won't and our young pitchers can't be that worse than Maeda anyway.  How Boston ever viewed him as a starter to begin with is odd given all the info out there.Unless his arm falls off Graterol has plenty of value as is just not as a starter.

[mudcat14]

 

Exactly. Not good. Now that these reports are out there, it has to get done. 

 

I'm not in love with this Maeda cat, but if Graterol isn't worth anything, then we really don't want him back. Especially if there are all these concerns. My guess, that is the reason the Twins were willing to trade him. They saw him as at best a bullpen piece. A bullpen piece that as of right now, has 1 pitch to throw and a good chance of being injured. 

 

Hold on.  Graterol is still a Top 100 prospect by ALL services.  You, I & everyone else watching saw him throw multiple 100+ mph strikes in his most recent outings.  He spent the off-season at the Twins training facility with no reported setbacks.  The Twins publicly announced that he would remain in relief for the foreseeable future, in all likelihood due to concerns over his durability.  Obviously the Twins are in the 'Win Now' mode and felt a proven, controllable #3-4 starter was more valuable to them this year than a #5-8 arm in our deep bullpen, despite his tremendous potential.  If the deal falls through, the Twins will be more than happy to continue to develop the kid with the most dynamic velocity that they have produced in years.     

[Ben Noble]

 

Graterol with a damaged trade reputation...

 

I would imagine that the Boston FO would suffer far greater damage to their reputation if this trade does in fact fall through, and that it would negatively affect their ability to make future trades. Boston reneging at this point would put the Twins FO in an awkward position that no other MLB FO would want to be put into. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would imagine that the Boston FO would suffer far greater damage to their reputation if this trade does in fact fall through, and that it would negatively affect their ability to make future trades. Boston reneging at this point would put the Twins FO in an awkward position that no other MLB FO would want to be put into. 

I'm not going to speculate on the FO effects quite yet, but none of this is mutually exclusive from what I said, that Graterol's trade value, as a player, would be diminished if the Twins have to pull him back here.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Hold on.  Graterol is still a Top 100 prospect by ALL services.  You, I & everyone else watching saw him throw multiple 100+ mph strikes in his most recent outings.  He spent the off-season at the Twins training facility with no reported setbacks.  The Twins publicly announced that he would remain in relief for the foreseeable future, in all likelihood due to concerns over his durability.  Obviously the Twins are in the 'Win Now' mode and felt a proven, controllable #3-4 starter was more valuable to them this year than a #5-8 arm in our deep bullpen, despite his tremendous potential.  If the deal falls through, the Twins will be more than happy to continue to develop the kid with the most dynamic velocity that they have produced in years.     

 

Yes, I agree. If we have to take him back, I am not mad and the Twins are probably happy to keep that arm in the system too. 

 

But look on the flip side, one bad year paired with this happening(and the subsequent heavy look into his injury history) and he is worth nothing. I am guessing he ranks right in that 50-70 range in a top 100 list. I'm pretty sure that is the going rate for a player of Maeda's stature with that team friendly contract. 

 

 

[Squirrel]

 

I'm not going to speculate on the FO effects quite yet, but none of this is mutually exclusive from what I said, that Graterol's trade value, as a player, would be diminished if the Twins have to pull him back here.

 

So he pitches for us this year and does AWESOME ... then his trade value will be healed, I would think, and Boston's would be ... it's a wait and see situation.

 

But if they don't want him, fine, we're out. Well, at least I'm not offering Balasovic or Duran instead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So he pitches for us this year and does AWESOME ... then his trade value will be healed, I would think

Sure. Obviously he could restore that value in the future, but it would be hard to address the concern about handling a starting workload in the immediate future.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Graterol with a damaged trade reputation...

I don't see that as a real problem. The Twins can pull back Graterol and put him in the bullpen this season.

 

At that point, his value will be based on performance and no one will really care about what happened in February.

 

On the other hand, Boston obviously has a directive from on-high to get payroll under the competitive balance number and they CAN'T do that without shipping both Betts and Price to someone. The number of "someones" who can take on that kind of money includes: the Dodgers. I don't see anyone else with anything approaching that kind of payroll flexibility.

 

And LA just energized their fanbase by acquiring who is probably the second-best player in baseball. If they miss out on Betts, it will look really bad for them.

 

Boston and LA are far more invested in seeing this trade through to completion than the Twins, who can likely pivot to Pittsburgh or someone else to acquire an arm... or they just decide to stand pat.

[Doctor Gast]

As much as I`d like to see this whole thing blow up, I doubt it will especially concerning our deal w/ LA. LA definitely was told about Graterol condition that`s why they got him so cheap so for LA to back out would be breach of contract because he`d pass his physical. 

 Boston must`ve told LA that they were interested in Graterol. They`re still not saying they don`t want Graterol but saying they were deceived. Thus wanting more. Or maybe the fans want out & Boston would try cancel the deal & try to solve the problem w/o dealing Betts although it`s a great deal for them. Either way our deal w/ LA should stick

[ewen21]

 

I'm sorry. It was the Twins who decided to non-tender Ortiz because they didn't think he was worth the arbitration salary. Considering all the teams that passed on him, the Red Sox were the only ones willing to reach a contract agreement with the guy. They took the gamble and won. The Twins kept LeCroy!

Precisely, and I was pretty angry about that at the time.  It make no sense at all to give up on a guy who hit 20 home runs, drove in 75 runs and hit 272 and was a leader.  To discard him the way the Twins did was shameful and this isn't hindsight

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Old Twins Cap]

 

I agree with the above post. It should not be on the Twins to add more to this deal. (I don't care for it to begin with.) If Boston is that concerned let them have Maeda and we'll keep Brusdar.

 

Sorry guys, a deal is never final until it's final. This ain't final.

 

So, whoever is deemed to have to do something will need to repair it.

 

Looks like Boston and LA were most motivated, but, maybe the Red Sox feel aggrieved and would walk at this point?

 

Hard to imagine that, but there's cash on the Price contract and minor leagues are full of guys who will never pan out so a million ways to fix it but who is going to pay?

 

Red Sox Nation is a beast to ride, that's for sure. Mookie is all that and the return looks meagre.

[Squirrel]

 

Sure. Obviously he could restore that value in the future, but it would be hard to address the concern about handling a starting workload in the immediate future.

 

Well ... I think the Twins go forward and use him as they planned ... and if he's awesome ... I mean, I think lights out relievers are worth something. Boston can then say, 'Well, we wanted a starter', which is fine, but their argument of perhaps something more in his medicals, beyond what the Twins know, really becomes a 'hmmmm ...' for me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well ... I think the Twins go forward and use him as they planned ... and if he's awesome ... I mean, I think lights out relievers are worth something. Boston can then say, 'Well, we wanted a starter', which is fine, but their argument of perhaps something more in his medicals, beyond what the Twins know, really becomes a 'hmmmm ...' for me.

Sure. I mean, if he's a lights out reliever, and healthy for all of 2020 and into 2021, then yeah, this is a footnote. I'm guessing he won't be an elite reliever quite so suddenly, though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't see that as a real problem. The Twins can pull back Graterol and put him in the bullpen this season.

 

At that point, his value will be based on performance and no one will really care about what happened in February.

Sure, the Twins can pull him back. And he could contribute to us and rebuild value. But he probably can't be a major trade chip to help bring in an ace at the deadline, that's all I was saying.

 

 

On the other hand, Boston obviously has a directive from on-high to get payroll under the competitive balance number and they CAN'T do that without shipping both Betts and Price to someone. The number of "someones" who can take on that kind of money includes: the Dodgers. I don't see anyone else with anything approaching that kind of payroll flexibility.

 

And LA just energized their fanbase by acquiring who is probably the second-best player in baseball. If they miss out on Betts, it will look really bad for them.

 

Boston and LA are far more invested in seeing this trade through to completion than the Twins, who can likely pivot to Pittsburgh or someone else to acquire an arm... or they just decide to stand pat.

I didn't say Boston and LA don't still have motivation to make this deal. That's mutually exclusive from the effect it can have on Graterol's trade value.

 

Of course, Boston and LA can still complete this deal without the Twins and Graterol, if they need to. He's a good piece, but he's mostly secondary to the deal.

 

And from the analysis here at TD, it sounds like the Twins might still be pretty motivated to land Maeda, and not see him land elsewhere.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As much as I`d like to see this whole thing blow up, I doubt it will especially concerning our deal w/ LA. LA definitely was told about Graterol condition that`s why they got him so cheap so for LA to back out would be breach of contract because he`d pass his physical. 

 Boston must`ve told LA that they were interested in Graterol. They`re still not saying they don`t want Graterol but saying they were deceived. Thus wanting more. Or maybe the fans want out & Boston would try cancel the deal & try to solve the problem w/o dealing Betts although it`s a great deal for them. Either way our deal w/ LA should stick

I don't think there's a contract to breach until it's official. And neither trade was announced as official.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sure, the Twins can pull him back. And he could contribute to us and rebuild value. But he probably can't be a major trade chip to help bring in an ace at the deadline, that's all I was saying.

 

 

I didn't say Boston and LA don't still have motivation to make this deal. That's mutually exclusive from the effect it can have on Graterol's trade value.

 

Of course, Boston and LA can still complete this deal without the Twins and Graterol, if they need to. He's a good piece, but he's mostly secondary to the deal.

 

And from the analysis here at TD, it sounds like the Twins might still be pretty motivated to land Maeda, and not see him land elsewhere.

It will be harder to complete without the Twins involved, as LA doesn't part with their prospects easily and there's an issue with what to do with Maeda if Price is in the deal, which he *will be* because that's the salary Boston is dying to off-load. The Dodgers will likely have to go offload Maeda if they acquire Price or else the guy might go into open revolt (and I wouldn't blame him for it).

 

Boston and LA can certainly go find another trade partner to round out the deal but given how Boston needs to complete this deal ASAP, I doubt they're eager to start negotiations from ground zero with a new partner at this point.

 

What I suspect happens is that LA will throw in a low minors flyer or take on more of Price's salary. What's an extra $8-10m to them anyway?

 

Honestly, given the current deal's structure, LA is making out like a bandit so they should be the ones taking on the additional burden to complete the deal.

[Dman]

 

I would imagine that the Boston FO would suffer far greater damage to their reputation if this trade does in fact fall through, and that it would negatively affect their ability to make future trades. Boston reneging at this point would put the Twins FO in an awkward position that no other MLB FO would want to be put into. 

 

I don't think that Boston would necessarily damage their rep over the Graterol Medicals.  Remember Atlanta did the same thing when we tried to trade  Burdi to them.  We ended up giving them Ynoa instead.  So these things do happen.  I don't know what is in the medicals that bothers them but I would guess it is legit.  Since they are only getting two players back they need to make sure they are getting healthy players.  If I had to guess there might be some scar tissue in Brusdar's shoulder or elbow or something.  Probably not super serious but enough to give them pause.  So I wouldn't be surprised if they wanted a different player altogether.  

 

The question in my mind comes down to whether or not the Dodgers are willing to take on the Brusdar risk.  They still need to get rid of Maeda so still might be inclined to make the deal with Minnesota and give Boston something different.  Hard to say how this all works out but even if we are shut out and get Brusdar back it isn't the end of the world either.

[nicksaviking]

I don't see that as a real problem. The Twins can pull back Graterol and put him in the bullpen this season.

 

At that point, his value will be based on performance and no one will really care about what happened in February.

But why would we assume he’ll be lights out? We did this with Romero and it blew up in our face.

 

But even if he is good as a reliever I don’t think he would bring back the value of a top 50 pitching prospect. He’d have to be elite to bring back a similar value.

 

Plus, are the Twins going to trade a young controllable elite reliever? Even if it’s in their best interest?

[Dman]

 

But why would we assume he’ll be lights out? We did this with Romero and it blew up in our face.

But even if he is good as a reliever I don’t think he would bring back the value of a top 50 pitching prospect. He’d have to be elite to bring back a similar value.

Plus, are the Twins going to trade a young controllable elite reliever? Even if it’s in their best interest?

 

It seems like a faulty assumption to say that he was still a pitching prospect. I mean after the Twins publicly said he would pitch out of the bullpen this year didn't he lose that value already?  I guess one could still hope he could start after being in the bullpen ala Santana but odds are the bullpen is where he he was going to end up.  The Red Sox stated they thought he could be a starter but looking at medicals they think reliever is likely as well.  Even scouting reports were not certain he was starter material since he had never pitched very many innings per year.  I don't think he lost or loses anymore value from Boston confirming what the Twins already knew,  Until the Twins could prove he was more than a bullpen arm his value was a bullpen arm.

 

He might go the way of Romero hard to say but he has pitched well at every level he has been at so far and he has been young for each level.  He throws over 100 and has a good slider so I think odds are he is at least good out of the pen but who knows at this point.  Elite gets tricky not many arms make it there.  I personally think the odds are in his favor to at least be decent out of the pen and he should improve as time goes on unless of course his arm fails him a risk all pitchers have.

 

If we get him back he has virtually the same value he always had unless of course he pitches poorly this year which brings a whole new set of data points.  If he pitches lights out then his value remains or trends up depending on how dominant he is.  Same as any other prospect.

[twins_89]

If the Twins are being asked to add more value to the trade I really hope they walk away. I was not completely comfortable with giving up Graterol for an OK but not great pitcher, so giving up more would be a major mistake.

[Dman]

Per MLB trade rumors this whole thing might die.  Sounds like Boston wants more from the Twins.  I know the Dodgers won't want to pony up more than they have already as they have offered a lot for one year of a player.  I really kind of hope this trade fails and Boston stays over the cap. I think that hurts them the most long term and I would like to beat the Sox while they are down.  Keep those penalties coming or let them sell off their assets for lessor value at the deadline.  Meada might be nice to have but we don't Need him that badly.

 

The Dodgers can get Betts this coming off-season for virtually nothing.  If I were them I would just wait it out.

[mudcat14]

 

Per MLB trade rumors this whole thing might die.  Sounds like Boston wants more from the Twins.

 

I read that too.  Hopefully the Twins will tell them to p*ss up a rope, and hang on to Brusdar.  See if we can work out an independent deal with the Dodgers or someone else if we feel the need for another starter.  Otherwise, wait til the mid-season deadline and see how desperate we really are with Pineda & Hill due back.

[howieramone2]

Maeda is too good a deal just to walk away from. Keep negotiating. No doubt we have a walk away price just as we did in free agency, but I would keep talking. We can afford an overpay with prospect capital.

[Dman]

It is not like the Twins are getting Betts in this deal they are getting a decent 32 year old pitcher.  Is any other team out there willing to offer up a top 50 pitcher for this guy?  I doubt it.  I say take it or leave it at this point. 

 

If they want Poppen instead of Graterol get it done but not throwing in anything more than Brusdar for Maeda.  When looking at future projection Boston\Dodgers are already winning the deal.  There is no reason to add more that I can see.  Let them both choke on the deal or let them find someone who will give them more.  Good luck with that.

[TopGunn#22]

I find it hard to believe Boston was gob-smacked by something in Graterol's medicals.  It's been discussed for quite some time that he very well could end up a reliever than a starter.  As LA Vikes fan and others have pointed out, this deal is most important to the Dodgers.  My God!  They've got Bellinger & Mookie !!!  Next it's most important to the Red Sox who I suppose because the Yankees added Gerritt Cole and if healthy could mash 350 HR's this year, and Tampa Bay is clearly better than them,  are suddenly throwing in the towel and must get under the "luxury tax."  While it would be great to have Maeda this trade is not nearly as important to the Twins as it is the other two.  As was also pointed out, but the question has still not been answered...was Graterol technically traded to the Dodgers first.  If that's the case, the Dodgers are motivated the most to get this done.  I just can't believe the "clueless" Red Sox had absolutely NO IDEA Graterol may be better suited to be a flame-throwing bullpen guy.  What happened to their "analytics department" ??  

[Dman]

In B\R they are reporting Boston wants another top prospect from the Twins to get this done.  What is Maeda really worth?  Can someone help me out here?  He is 32 and not going to better only worse as time goes on.  While he helps us some this year he doesn't look like someone who will be much better than Pineda or Odo in the Playoffs.  Why do we want to help Boston rebuild right away?  Keep them over the tax that hurts them more.  This is a salary dump why should Boston come out on top?  I sure hope they don't give up yet another top 100 prospect that just seems insane to me.  Please, please torpedo this deal I would love to have the world laughing at Boston.  There one chance at a value deal will be gone.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's the report I believe you are referring to:

 

 

Seems kind of second-hand, so I'd take it with a grain of salt at this point.