The 4 Pitches We Will See From Kenta Maeda

[Cooper Carlson]

The Twins shocked almost everyone who has been around the team for a while by swinging a huge trade involving a top prospect. Kenta Maeda was acquired for Brusdar Graterol and he will fill an important hole in the rotation. Here are the four main pitches he throws.Four seam fastball:

• 92.1 MPH, thrown 33.7% of the time, 21.1 whiff%
• .280 BA (.255 xBA), .517 SLG (.465 xSLG), .385 wOBA (.357 xwOBA)

The fastball for Maeda is definitely the worst pitch of the three that he throws at least 10% of the time. The velocity is one of the slower average fastballs in baseball at just around 92 MPH and the spin on it is also one of the worst. Despite that, the expected statistics for batters against the fastball suggest the stats against it should improve this season. Something notable about this pitch is that right-handers have a really tough time against it but lefties destroy it. The AL is loaded with right-handed hitters. Twins Daily writer, AJ, posted some videos that I’ll be using:

 

Slider:

• 83.5 MPH, thrown 31.5% of the time, 40.7 whiff%
• .155 BA (.175 xBA), .288 SLG (.275 xSLG), .210 wOBA (.215 xwOBA)

This seems to be the best pitch we will see from Maeda this season. The Twins have become really attracted to pitchers who throw a nasty slider. Fangraphs ranked this as the sixth best slider in MLB last season so the Twins are also sticking to finding someone with at least one elite pitch and building off of that. The best part of it might be that right-handers literally can’t touch this pitch (.196 wOBA) so he throws it over 50% of the time, and left-handers are only mediocre against it as well. Here is some excellent video and stats from Alex Fast, the VP at PitcherList.

 

Changeup:

• 84.9 MPH, thrown 31.7% of the time, 36.2 whiff%
• .183 BA (.224 xBA), .288 SLG (.275 xSLG), .242 wOBA (.256 xwOBA)

The changeup we will see from Maeda is another excellent pitch and it is the one he throws the most against left-handed batters at around 40%. He will only throw it around 5% of the time against right-handers. The reason he throws it so often against left-handers is the .174 BA, .292 SLG, and 37.3 whiff% he gets out of it. The changeup and slider are both thrown more than the fastball depending on what side the batter is hitting from. The slider is elite against right-handers and the changeup is elite against left-handers.

 

Curveball:

• 78.0 MPH, thrown 7.4% of the time, 27.5 whiff%
• .294 BA (.313 xBA), .588 SLG (.569 xSLG), .345 wOBA (.361 xwOBA)

The curveball is another pitch for Maeda that he only really throws against left handers and that is still only around 12% of the time. It is his worst pitch of the four listed and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Twins have him throw it even less while increasing the slider and changeup usage. Thanks again for the video, AJ.

 

What are your thoughts on Kenta Maeda? Did you like the trade? Do you think he can be the impact pitcher the Twins have been looking for?

 

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[Otwins]

Thanks for the write-up.  I do like this trade. We needed another starting pitcher and we got one.  Time will tell if we gave up too much. Having Cruz and Donaldson together with the young core I like getting a strating pitcher that will help this year.

[bdhenders]

Great Article!  I have one word for the trade: Shocked!

 

Now that I have done a little research past the ERA and K/9, the initial, “but I love Graterol” is starting to where off.  I’ll have to trust Falvine, which I am now happy to do since they have pulled off 2 maneuvers I never saw out of the old regime and it looks like the Twins are solid Favorites to win the division.

 

I really wanted a trade for a #1 starter, but if you look at Maeda vs Price’s numbers, the 3 mil/year vs 20 mil/year is a bargain.

 

Also, note the list excerpted from FanGraphs top 125 pitchers for 2020:

31. Berrios

34. Z Wheeler

35. Odorizzi

36. K Hendricks

37 Bumgarner

38 K. Maeda 

 

3 Twins pitchers in amongst the free agents we were coveting, so decent rotation

 

 

[USAFChief]

I would expect the four pitches to be:

 

"Fly Delta to Tokyo."

 

"When Miyumi and I celebrate another Twins win, we always dine at Sven And Ole's All-you-can-eat Lutefisk, Lefse, and Sushi Buffet!"

 

"Sheboygan Brats!"

 

and

 

"Like Joe Mauer-san, I drink Kemps!"

 

 

[wabene]

I would expect the four pitches to be:

 

"Fly Delta to Tokyo."

 

"When Miyumi and I celebrate another Twins win, we always dine at Sven And Ole's All-you-can-eat Lutefisk, Lefse, and Sushi Buffet!"

 

"Sheboygan Brats!"

 

and

 

"Like Joe Mauer-san, I drink Kemps!"

With a contact like his the man definitely needs a part-time job.

[Aerodeliria]

You won't get too much grousing from Japanese pitchers. When they pitch well, they are usually gracious to a fault. When they pitch poorly, they take too much of the blame.

[DocBauer]

Considering the early results we have seen from Wes Johnson, I wonder just how good Maeda might be if that FB could be tweaked a little bit.

[Linus]

He clearly has figured out how to use what he has.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You won't get too much grousing from Japanese pitchers. When they pitch well, they are usually gracious to a fault. When they pitch poorly, they take too much of the blame.

So what do you make of Maeda's agent speaking publicly about his dissatisfaction with his Dodgers role?

 

http://www.startribune.com/kenta-maeda-will-want-to-start-often-for-twins-to-increase-his-salary/567608762/

 

“Kenta wants to make 30 starts, 32 starts during the season,” Maeda’s agent, Joel Wolfe, told The Athletic in November after meeting with Dodgers President Andrew Friedman to plead his client’s case. “He would prefer not to be constantly shuttled to the bullpen and back. He doesn’t like it.”

[jmlease1]

 

So what do you make of Maeda's agent speaking publicly about his dissatisfaction with his Dodgers role?

 

http://www.startribune.com/kenta-maeda-will-want-to-start-often-for-twins-to-increase-his-salary/567608762/

 

“Kenta wants to make 30 starts, 32 starts during the season,” Maeda’s agent, Joel Wolfe, told The Athletic in November after meeting with Dodgers President Andrew Friedman to plead his client’s case. “He would prefer not to be constantly shuttled to the bullpen and back. He doesn’t like it.”

 

Can't blame him at all, because of all the incentives in his contract he was taking a big financial hit every time the Dodgers decided to float him into the bullpen. It's not like he didn't take the ball and pitch well anyway, but you can't blame a guy who sees himself as a starter, has had success as a starter, and has a contract that rewards him for starting pushing back on getting dumped into the bullpen every time the Dodgers wanted to run out another guy in the rotation or needed help in the 'pen.

 

It's hardly a character flaw. Twins certainly want him as a starter, and will happily pay him the incentives because if he hits them all the odds are very good that he's been very successful for the team.

[Aerodeliria]

 

So what do you make of Maeda's agent speaking publicly about his dissatisfaction with his Dodgers role?

 

http://www.startribune.com/kenta-maeda-will-want-to-start-often-for-twins-to-increase-his-salary/567608762/

 

“Kenta wants to make 30 starts, 32 starts during the season,” Maeda’s agent, Joel Wolfe, told The Athletic in November after meeting with Dodgers President Andrew Friedman to plead his client’s case. “He would prefer not to be constantly shuttled to the bullpen and back. He doesn’t like it.”

Notice it is the agent who is saying this and in that particular tone, not Maeda himself. Of course, he told the agent what he desired but he didn't grab the nearest mic and say these things. Such behavior would be considered rude beyond measure in the Japanese way of thinking because it would indicate that you feel you are the most important person on the team. When you hear him speak after a game (even in Japanese), he will show his support for the team first. I can almost guarantee it.

[Twodogs]

So who's going to end up in the bullpen when both Pineda and Hill are back? I realize that won't probably be until late July or early August with Hill, but I mean it's probably going to happen at some point in time this year?

[jmlease1]

 

So who's going to end up in the bullpen when both Pineda and Hill are back? I realize that won't probably be until late July or early August with Hill, but I mean it's probably going to happen at some point in time this year?

 

Could be Thorpe, whose stuff plays well there and his left-handedness might be seen as an asset. Maybe they go with 6 starters for a while. I suspect Maeda sticks in the rotation unless he's pitching poorly.

 

Maeda probably is less unhappy about a postseason shift to the bullpen than a midseason one; if Hill is crushing it  and the twins go to 4 starters for the postseason, Pineda or Maeda or even odorizzi could slide into the 'pen.

[Mr. Brooks]

So who's going to end up in the bullpen when both Pineda and Hill are back? I realize that won't probably be until late July or early August with Hill, but I mean it's probably going to happen at some point in time this year?

I'll be very surprised, shocked almost, if Hill throws significant innings for the Twins this year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

So what do you make of Maeda's agent speaking publicly about his dissatisfaction with his Dodgers role?

 

http://www.startribune.com/kenta-maeda-will-want-to-start-often-for-twins-to-increase-his-salary/567608762/

 

“Kenta wants to make 30 starts, 32 starts during the season,” Maeda’s agent, Joel Wolfe, told The Athletic in November after meeting with Dodgers President Andrew Friedman to plead his client’s case. “He would prefer not to be constantly shuttled to the bullpen and back. He doesn’t like it.”

 

I'm not sure this qualifies as Maeda speaking publicly. His agent is doing so, that's for sure.  That's also his agents job. He voiced his concerns to his agent (which he should) who passed it on to LA. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure this qualifies as Maeda speaking publicly. His agent is doing so, that's for sure.  That's also his agents job. He voiced his concerns to his agent (which he should) who passed it on to LA. 

Yeah, I knew it was his agent. I do wonder if that situation will make it tougher for teams to move him to the pen, if necessary, which might have dampened his trade value a bit.

[nicksaviking]

 

So who's going to end up in the bullpen when both Pineda and Hill are back? I realize that won't probably be until late July or early August with Hill, but I mean it's probably going to happen at some point in time this year?

 

It's a good problem to have. Whomever is coldest I would suspect, if no one is cold, than things are looking good.

 

It's basically the situation the Dodgers have put themselves into the past half decade.

 

Also, Maeda looks to be similar to Odorizzi; less is more. Fewer innings per start seem to benefit them. Throw in the injury history of Bailey and Hill, Berrios' tendency to fade down the stretch and the other options all being rookies, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few irregular six man rotation stretches.

[Twodogs]

 

I'll be very surprised, shocked almost, if Hill throws significant innings for the Twins this year.

Well he wont be throwing them next year for the Twins because the Twins have Hill only signed through this year.  So I am guessing that the Twins are banking on Hill throwing some innings for them this year?

[Danchat]

 

So who's going to end up in the bullpen when both Pineda and Hill are back? I realize that won't probably be until late July or early August with Hill, but I mean it's probably going to happen at some point in time this year?

I would expect the rotation heirarchy to be:

 

Berrios

Odorizzi

Pineda

Maeda

Bailey

Thorpe/Dobnak/Smeltzer

 

And Hill would replace anybody injured or struggling, else he'd wind up in the bullpen. In this scenario, the only time Maeda will be heading to the bullpen will be for the playoffs.

 

(Maeda / Pineda seems debatable but with the way Pineda pitched last season plus he's making $10M, that puts him ahead for now)

[Mr. Brooks]

Well he wont be throwing them next year for the Twins because the Twins have Hill only signed through this year. So I am guessing that the Twins are banking on Hill throwing some innings for them this year?

I think they view him as a lottery ticket, hence the structure of the contract.

I don't agree they expect him to pitch significant innings. Though they'll obviously be thrilled if he does, just like any lottery ticket.

 

If he throws more than 50 innings for the Twins this year, I'll be very surprised.