What others are saying about the trade

[gunnarthor]

Sporting News gives the Twins an A- for the trade

 

I haven't seen much other analysis yet about the trade for the Twins (plenty on the Dodgers and Red Sox) but if you do, maybe it makes sense to have it one spot instead of a 10+ page thread?

[nicksaviking]

Ha, I like how in the fourth paragraph it was mentioned that Betts won The Sporting News' Player of the Year honor two seasons ago.

 

I remember when that used to be a semi-big deal. Now you'll only hear people bragging up that award at The Sporting News.

[gunnarthor]

 

Ha, I like how in the fourth paragraph it was mentioned that Betts won The Sporting News' Player of the Year honor two seasons ago.

 

I remember when that used to be a semi-big deal. Now you'll only hear people bragging up that award at The Sporting News.

Yeah, TSN used to be huge. I remember reading Dave Kindred in TSN at the library as a kid. 

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, I remember when my folks got me a TSN subscription for my birthday. I probably asked for SI, but I still loved it. 

[Monkeypaws]

Keith Law had this to say about Graterol over at the Athletic:

 

 

He missed the first half of the year with a shoulder impingement, which may have contributed to the decision to move him to the pen, but with a high-effort delivery, below-average command and the lack of an average changeup to get lefties out, that was his most likely destination anyway.

 

He also pointed out that the Twins swapped 6 years of Graterol for 4 of Maeda.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Keith Law had this to say about Graterol over at the Athletic:

 

 

He also pointed out that the Twins swapped 6 years of Graterol for 4 of Maeda.

 

Worth noting that Keith Law was notoriously down on Graterol even prior to 2019:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32158-keith-law-top-100-no-love-for-graterol/

[Tomj14]

 

Keith Law had this to say about Graterol over at the Athletic:

 

 

He also pointed out that the Twins swapped 6 years of Graterol for 4 of Maeda.

So 4 years of the Known (kind of) compared to 6 years of the unknown. I will take the known.

[Big John]

 

Worth noting that Keith Law was notoriously down on Graterol even prior to 2019:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32158-keith-law-top-100-no-love-for-graterol/

 

ALTHOUGH, also worth noting that he was notoriously high on Balazovic before most people had even heard of him.  So there is that.

 

If I remember right the reason he didn't have Graterol as simply that he was never going to hold up to starting with the delivery that he had, and I think the front office has come around to that point of view as well.  I honestly think he's a rich man's Trevor May.  Which is nothing to sneeze at and a valuable piece, but some people are freaking like the Twins traded the next Nolan Ryan.

[Dantes929]

 

Keith Law had this to say about Graterol over at the Athletic:

 

 

He also pointed out that the Twins swapped 6 years of Graterol for 4 of Maeda.

2.7 BB/9 in his career.   1.9 with the Twins.   I wonder about the below average command comment.    The max effort 100+mph concerned me about Graterol, especially in the starter role.    I like Maeda   better than the other guys we have signed this winter.        Off season expectations on here always seem unrealistic to me and I know it wasn't helped by the front office talking about getting an impact starter but even if we got Ryu or Bumgarten I was afraid of losing Odorizzi and Pineda.   Retaining those two, adding Clippard and Maeda and Donaldson was more than I expected.    

[Otto von Ballpark]

Dan Szymborski at Fangraphs with what sounds like a tepid endorsement:

 

 

Since three teams in a trade is more fun than two, the Twins also got involved, picking up Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers and sending pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to Boston. Graterol’s a good prospect, but was likely to end up in releif for the Twins, and with the team in win-now mode, a dependable-if-unexciting starting pitcher who can be trusted to throw a few innings out of pen has greater short-term utility. Minnesota needed another starting pitcher and they got one.

 

But his multi-year ZiPS projections at the bottom of the article don't look too favorably upon the Twins in this deal (although multi-year ZiPS projections are probably more fun than accurate, especially with a wild card like Graterol).

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/dodgers-snag-betts-in-three-way-blockbuster/

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So 4 years of the Known (kind of) compared to 6 years of the unknown. I will take the known.

FWIW, it could be more like 6.5 years for Graterol, if they use his minor league options. (And every pre-arb player is effectively on an even more extreme "incentive" type contract than Maeda.)

 

And as you are probably alluding to, Maeda's projected performance at age 35 may not be that much more "known" today than Graterol's next few years.

[Longdistancetwins]

 

Yeah, I remember when my folks got me a TSN subscription for my birthday. I probably asked for SI, but I still loved it. 

The Sporting News was huge for me as a kid rooting for an out-of-town team.  I read Bob Fowler on the Twins whenever I could.  

[dbminn]

FanGraphs has already posted Graterol as Boston's #1 prospect. Here's some commentary from Jay Jaffe at FG:

 

"Graterol will again appear somewhere in the middle of our Top 100 list, which will be published next week. He instantly becomes the Red Sox’s top prospect, though their plans for his role remain to be seen."

 

Here's an excerpt from Aaron Gleeman at the Athletic:

 

"Graterol is an awfully big chip. Next week, The Athletic will publish our rankings of the Twins’ top-40 prospects, and Graterol was slated to be No. 3, tops among pitchers... There is no question that the Twins are opening themselves up to be second-guessed for years to come."

 

I'm not a big second guesser on trades. I either like or don't like the trade up front. After that, it's a matter health, development, etc. The Twins FO paid a lot but needed to get a SP. I'm looking forward to the season.

[Tomj14]

 

FWIW, it could be more like 6.5 years for Graterol, if they use his minor league options. (And every pre-arb player is effectively on an even more extreme "incentive" type contract than Maeda.)

 

And as you are probably alluding to, Maeda's projected performance at age 35 may not be that much more "known" today than Graterol's next few years.

agreed, but I wasn't including options because he isn't on major league roster. Having options is a positive for keeping Graterol, having to use them is probably means his is not living up to potential. 

[mikelink45]

 

So 4 years of the Known (kind of) compared to 6 years of the unknown. I will take the known.

I am afraid both are unknown.

How will Maeda age?

How will Maeda transition to the AL?

Will Maeda hold up for 4 years?

Maeda is 31, Graterol is 21

Maeda WAR was 2.9 his first year in LA age 28, the next two years were 0.4 and 0.6.  Last year he was 1.3.  Going go the AL I expect that he will be lucky to be 1.0.  

 

It could be a wonderful trade, but for me it remains a mystery.

[mikelink45]

 

The Sporting News was huge for me as a kid rooting for an out-of-town team.  I read Bob Fowler on the Twins whenever I could.  

I like the side discussion.  I loved the Sporting News and even visited their office in St Louis.  At one time they and Sports Illustrated were really the sources.  Now TSN has really disappeared and SI has a much lower profile and ESPN came out with their magazine (I really disliked the ESPN glossy).  Today we turn more to sources like TD, the Athletic, and Bleacher Reports.  After their way to ambitious expansion I think ESPN is loosing its spot too. 

 

Thanks for the diversion.

[howieramone2]

It's no mystery to me. The offense is better, the defense is better. The bullpen improved, and now our starting pitching has improved.

[VATwinsFan]

 

Yeah, I remember when my folks got me a TSN subscription for my birthday. I probably asked for SI, but I still loved it. 

 

My dad, being an extremely wise man, knew reading and comprehending was a big deal, and seeing that I loved baseball, got me a subscription to the SN when I was in 8th grade (back when the SN was 90% baseball with 1-2 page coverage of every team, every week).  I devoured it and he probably just sat back and smiled.

[SmellEm]

 

Worth noting that Keith Law was notoriously down on Graterol even prior to 2019:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32158-keith-law-top-100-no-love-for-graterol/

 

In general, if Law thinks a guy is most likely going to the bullpen he will rank them much lower than the rest of the industry.  He just doesn't think there is much value in relief prospects. 

[SmellEm]

 

I am afraid both are unknown.

How will Maeda age?

How will Maeda transition to the AL?

Will Maeda hold up for 4 years?

Maeda is 31, Graterol is 21

Maeda WAR was 2.9 his first year in LA age 28, the next two years were 0.4 and 0.6.  Last year he was 1.3.  Going go the AL I expect that he will be lucky to be 1.0.  

 

It could be a wonderful trade, but for me it remains a mystery.

 

Baseball Reference WAR is heavily dependent on park factors for pitcher's which is hurting his value quite a bit. It's why they also had Mike Minor and Lance Lynn as the 2nd and 3rd highest WAR pitchers in the AL last year because Arlington graded as the most hitter friendly park in 2018.  Fangraph's WAR grades him out quite a bit better.

[bighat]

Seen a few Red Sox fan reaction boards - the overall mood seems to be angry.

 

"They lost Betts for what? Some unproven prospects?"

 

"Who else'd we get? Some AAA pitcher for the Twins we've never heard of? He throws 100, whoop-dee-doo."

 

"I pahked the cah in Havahd Yahd and when I turned on the radio I listened to some guy talking about how we traded Mookster for Buster Gatorade"

 

Etc, etc. The gist of it is that Red Sox fans aren't exactly over the moon thinking they won this deal, and just about nobody's thinking they robbed the Twins blind.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

agreed, but I wasn't including options because he isn't on major league roster. Having options is a positive for keeping Graterol, having to use them is probably means his is not living up to potential. 

I wouldn't say that, in modern MLB. A single option isn't necessarily tied to performance at all. (Especially in an innings control situation like Graterol.)

 

Boston could option Graterol out of spring training to limit his innings, and call him up on May 9th (around the same time Pineda is activated) and he only misses a quarter of the season and they get an entire extra year of control.

 

(Admittedly it's more valuable for a young position players, as pitchers are harder to project.)

[SomeGuy]

MLB Trade Rumors has a reader poll on grading the trade from each teams prospective. 

 

I gave the Twins B, its a win now move that improves the team but not an earth shattering improvement. Gave up someone who will probably be good sometime in the future. In the context of win now this is a good trade, it might look worse in the future if people don't consider how this was a going for it move in 2020 and they only look at talent gave vs talent received.

 

From the Dodgers prospective it is hard not to like it. But this is even more of a win now move than the Twins. I gave it an A but if they don't win the world series and lose Betts to FA then the long term outlook might favor the Red Sox. I am calling Price over Maeda as a wash, talent wise Price is better but they lose a year of control, pay him quite a bit, and he is older and showing it health wise.

 

For the Red Sox I am using the context of they accomplished the goal of cutting payroll, they added two good young players that are MLB ready or really close. They got something for Betts before he tested Free Agency, much better return than a qualifying offer. I think they are planning more for 2021-2025 than 2020 and this is a nice trade for them.  I gave them a B.

 

As it stood when I took the survey

Twins

B 42%

A 23.55%

C 20.98%

D 8.98%

F 4.44%

 

Dodgers

A 63.28%

B 26.32%

C 7.31%

D 1.62%

F 1.47%

 

Red Sox

C 29.9%

B 27.81%

D 16.36%

A 14.47%

F 11.46%

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/02/grading-the-mookie-betts-trade.html

[Mike Sixel]

 

Dan Szymborski at Fangraphs with what sounds like a tepid endorsement:

 

 

But his multi-year ZiPS projections at the bottom of the article don't look too favorably upon the Twins in this deal (although multi-year ZiPS projections are probably more fun than accurate, especially with a wild card like Graterol).

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/dodgers-snag-betts-in-three-way-blockbuster/

 

I guess it depends on if you want the fWAR sooner rather than later, and if you want it from a starter more than a RP.........because this is about this year and next year way more than years 3-6 from now.

[dbminn]

FWIW, Here's Bowden's take from the Athletic:

 

"Bottom line is I don’t like the actual trade long-term for the Twins, but it’s easy to see why they made it. They needed another starter, and they have a legitimate chance of doing damage in October."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Baseball Reference WAR is heavily dependent on park factors for pitcher's which is hurting his value quite a bit. It's why they also had Mike Minor and Lance Lynn as the 2nd and 3rd highest WAR pitchers in the AL last year because Arlington graded as the most hitter friendly park in 2018.  Fangraph's WAR grades him out quite a bit better.

Maeda's career PPFp is only 97.3, which is lower than average but not nearly as extreme as Lynn and Minor in 2019 (both in 109-110 range). The Mets starters all had lower PPFp marks in 2019 than Maeda, as did Bumgarner, as did Kershaw, etc.

 

It might be equal parts park factor and defense which held back Maeda's bWAR compared to fWAR. (And both might be valid questions about Maeda coming over to the Twins.)

 

Average per season in his career: 1.3 bWAR, 2.4 fWAR. Definitely a difference, although both could be in a similar class of pitcher. (FWIW, those bWAR/fWAR averages, on a per-inning basis, are pretty close to Ricky Nolasco's in the 4 years leading up to his Twins contract...)

 

Edit to add: some evidence that Maeda is a bigger beneficiary of Dodger Stadium than most, he has the largest home/road ERA differential of any Dodger starter from 2016-2019 (min. 50 innings in each split)

 

Home:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=9,184&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=true&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2016-03-01&endDate=2019-11-01&players=&filter=&sort=5,-1

 

Road:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=184,10&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=true&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2016-03-01&endDate=2019-11-01&players=&filter=&sort=5,-1

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

"I pahked the cah in Havahd Yahd and when I turned on the radio I listened to some guy talking about how we traded Mookster for Buster Gatorade"

That was only after some Twins fans jumped on their boards and said, "How do you like THEM apples?!"

[akmanak]

It's no mystery to me. The offense is better, the defense is better. The bullpen improved, and now our starting pitching has improved.

Best comment of the day. We needed a quality starter and we got one. So much negativity over a young pitcher who because of his delivery likely will blow out his arm in a couple of years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I guess it depends on if you want the fWAR sooner rather than later, and if you want it from a starter more than a RP.........because this is about this year and next year way more than years 3-6 from now.

True, but ZiPS has Graterol ahead of Maeda as early as next year. (And this year, he's only behind because it has him in a pen role -- which might happen, although 45 innings could be a conservative estimate!)

[Mike Sixel]

 

True, but ZiPS has Graterol ahead of Maeda as early as next year. (And this year, he's only behind because it has him in a pen role -- which might happen, although 45 innings could be a conservative estimate!)

 

I don't know....it's pretty much a rounding error after this year.....and Zips has him MUCH better this year. If he was in MN, he'd be in teh bullpen, we already know that. So, I'd go with bullpen estimates for his value to this team.