Kenta Maeda: New Twins Ace in Five Numbers

[Matthew Trueblood]

Kenta Maeda doesn't have a reputation to compare to the top free-agent pitchers of this offseason, but he might be better than several of them, and the best pitcher on the Twins' entire staff.José Berríos is a more traditional workhorse. Jake Odorizzi has a deeper repertoire. Taylor Rogers is a relief ace. In the right mix, however, new acquisition Kenta Maeda can be better than any of them, and the erstwhile Los Angeles Dodgers swingman has landed on a Minnesota Twins team that suits him just as well as his old one did. While other pitchers might be more valuable in a vacuum, the specific context of the Twins pitching staff makes Maeda the most valuable hurler they have. That’s a bold claim, and the advisability of trading Brusdar Graterol for Maeda partially hinges on its viability, so here are five numbers to support it.

 

Of the 104 pitchers who threw at least 2,000 pitches in 2019, Maeda induced the sixth-highest whiff rate on swings. Opponents made contact on a lower percentage of their swings against Maeda than against Lucas Giolito, Chris Sale, or Jacob deGrom. Despite a fastball that averages 92.3 miles per hour, Maeda misses bats at an extremely impressive clip. When he threw a slider to right-handers in 2019, they whiffed 25.2 percent of the time—not on swings, but on all sliders. Left-handed hitters whiffed at his changeup 21.5 percent of the time. Those numbers are eye-popping.

 

Maeda has five pitches, but really, he throws just two against each type of batter. Righties see his slider 53.4 percent of the time and his fastball 33.2 percent of the time. To lefties, he throws 41.2 percent changeups and 34.6 percent fastballs. Because of that, of hurlers who threw at least 2,000 pitches, Maeda induced the seventh-highest swing rate on pitches outside the zone.

 

Against batters of each handedness, Maeda is more likely to throw his primary non-fastball pitch than his heater. His fastball only remains his most-used pitch because he throws it as a secondary offering against all batters. He’s highly unpredictable, and that draws hitters into chasing bad pitches. That unpredictability makes him hard to square up, too. His fastball has above-average spin, adjusted for its velocity, and while his spin doesn’t generate extraordinary movement, it does seem to help him limit hard contact.

 

Of 152 pitchers who allowed at least 250 batted balls in 2019, Maeda yielded the fourth-lowest average exit velocity. It’s not a coincidence that opponents have a .280 batting average on balls in play against Maeda over his 589 big-league innings, which is well below the typical .300. Nor has Maeda simply gotten lucky. He gets tangibly worse contact even when batters aren’t swinging and missing. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, but is one of the best pitchers in baseball at limiting exit velocity on those flies, which only makes him an even better fit for the Twins: their outfield defense is far better than the gloves on the infield.

 

Finding pitchers with both strikeout rates and contact management skills this far above average, while throwing more than one inning at a time, is virtually impossible. Yet, Maeda manages it, partially because he’s been used very strategically.

 

In all situations other than facing batters a third time in games as a starter, Maeda held opponents to a batting line of .199/.264/.343. The Dodgers’ plan with Maeda, for reasons both performance-centered and financial, was to minimize his exposure to opponents for the third time in any game. That prevented Maeda from running into trouble as batters grew accustomed to his two-pitch combinations. He only faced batters on a third trip through the order 104 times in 2019, less than half as many such plate appearances as he had facing them a second time. When restricted to that role, Maeda was dominant. The Twins, with such great bullpen depth in place, can afford to carry forward that strategy, which gives Maeda a chance to remain nearly unhittable.

 

The way Maeda slides between roles (however unhappy he might be about it), and the way he both punches batters out and makes things easy on his defense when they do put the ball in play, makes him a darling of the most advanced pitching metrics. Baseball Prospectus uses Deserved Run Average (DRA) to holistically capture a pitcher’s contribution to run prevention, and DRA- puts that contribution on a simple scale, where 100 is average and (for example) 80 is 20 percent better than average. Maeda’s 68 career DRA- is better than the same number for the best seasons of Berríos, Odorizzi, or Pineda. Among possible Twins starters, only Rich Hill has ever been better than Maeda, and Hill is unlikely to reach that level again at this late stage of his career.

 

It’s unlikely that Maeda will be as inexpensive as his contract first appears, because he’ll probably start for much of the season, and that will trigger a number of significant incentives. However, even at triple his base salary, Maeda is a bargain. He could be the Twins’ ace, especially because of the deep and highly modular group around him. His pitch mix is a perfect fit for the Twins’ evolving pitching philosophy, and his strengths match up with those of the team in ideal fashion.

 

Click here to view the article

[VivaBomboRivera!]

As long as he passes his physical.  No more Sam Dysons!

[HrbieFan]

Do you really think the Dodgers were holding him back to save money? I doubt that! IMO his 2 pitch selection and walks kept him from going more than 6 IPs. Maybe Wes can get his walk rate down and squeeze another inning out of him on avg. Love this move! Now we have an above average rotation and flexibility if injuries hit

[TFRazor]

Me likey the whiff rates

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Do you really think the Dodgers were holding him back to save money? I doubt that! IMO his 2 pitch selection and walks kept him from going more than 6 IPs. Maybe Wes can get his walk rate down and squeeze another inning out of him on avg. Love this move! Now we have an above average rotation and flexibility if injuries hit

The Dodgers were absolutely holding him back to save money. His third time through splits were bad, but so are just about every MLB pitchers. The Dodgers were famous for manipulating pitchers innings. Part of it was money related, for guys like Ryu it was health related, and in some cases it was just because of their pitching depth. Some of the best analysts in the baseball world are rejoicing Maeda escaping the "Dodgeritis", the term coined to describe their consistent limiting of pitchers. 

[IndianaTwin]

 

Do you really think the Dodgers were holding him back to save money? I doubt that! IMO his 2 pitch selection and walks kept him from going more than 6 IPs. Maybe Wes can get his walk rate down and squeeze another inning out of him on avg. Love this move! Now we have an above average rotation and flexibility if injuries hit

 

I don’t think the Dodgers held him back/moved him to the bullpen to save money. They had a rotation of Kershaw-Buehler-Ryu-Hill and wanted to get starts to Urias and May, and they had seen that Maeda can effectively transition to the bullpen.

 

But I’m sure they didn’t mind that it also saved them some money. :-)

 

[cardsfan]

He was awful on the road. After his first year he's been mediocre. The Dodgers are tickled to death getting rid of him.

[raindog]

That’s all nice, but it still adds up to a career ERA+ of 105, and he’s entering his age 32 season. That doesn’t scream ace to me.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

He’s a great pitcher, and his long, affordable contract makes him so valuable. This was a great deal. Fans saying that we should have “gotten an ace” for Graterol should follow that up with an actual example of aces with multiple years of control being traded for single, possibly relief prospects. There aren’t any.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

 

Do you really think the Dodgers were holding him back to save money? I doubt that! IMO his 2 pitch selection and walks kept him from going more than 6 IPs. Maybe Wes can get his walk rate down and squeeze another inning out of him on avg. Love this move! Now we have an above average rotation and flexibility if injuries hit

Pulled some 2019 numbers out of curiousity:

Maeda - 53 BB, 169 SO in 153.2 IP

Odorizzi - 53 BB, 178 SO in 159 IP

Berrios - 51 BB, 195 SO in 200.1 IP

Price - 32BB, 128 SO in 107.1 IP

Cole - 48 BB, 326 (!) SO in 212.1 IP

Wheeler - 50 BB, 195 SO in 195.1 IP

[Dantes929]

 

He’s a great pitcher, and his long, affordable contract makes him so valuable. This was a great deal. Fans saying that we should have “gotten an ace” for Graterol should follow that up with an actual example of aces with multiple years of control being traded for single, possibly relief prospects. There aren’t any.

I don't know anyone saying we should have gotten an ace for him.   I was hoping for a guy with his exact stats but a couple years younger and doing it in the AL East rather than the NL West.   This move makes some of the others less attractive.   I  didn't want three spots open for the young guys until Pineda gets back but I did want one.     

[Crackedfungo]

I don't know anyone saying we should have gotten an ace for him.   I was hoping for a guy with his exact stats but a couple years younger and doing it in the AL East rather than the NL West.   This move makes some of the others less attractive.   I  didn't want three spots open for the young guys until Pineda gets back but I did want one.

 

Exactly. When taken in context with all the other signings (Chacín too?), this looks like a hodgepodge of four moves hoping two work out, and giving up our best young SP (currently) - I just don’t see the long-term payoff of most of these moves (3 only assist this year - hill, bailey, Chacín if they make it), and the Maeda move depletes our best young pitching prospect for an old weaker league junkballer that will only be serviceable,not potentially exceptional

[PDX Twin]

I like Graterol's potential enough that I fear the Twins Maeda mistake.

[woolywoolhouse]

53% sliders and 41% change-ups? Astros would have tired themselves out just banging on garbage cans with him on the mound.

[Bickle19]

 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

The Dodgers limited his innings, great. They got the most from him. It`s what  the Twins should have done w/ Gibson & Perez instead of trying to milk out as many inning as they could when their tanks were empty. If their innings were reduced they`d have better results than him.

 If they were high on Maeda fine,they should have traded someone closer to his trading value rather Graterol which is close to 2 Maedas & save Graterol in a combination trade for a real stud w/ a higher upside.  

[baul0010]

The F.O. has to know something about Graterol that is not being let out.  We have already been adding 3rd or 4th starters for depth.  I think Graterol getting 60 innings of great high leverage use would be better than 150 innings of 4th starter league average pitching.  If we developed Graterol into a high leverage relief pitcher his value would be greater than Maeda.  I look back at the Andrew Miller / Aroldis Chapman trades and think we may look back and wonder why this trade was done.   

[baul0010]

 

I like Graterol's potential enough that I fear the Twins Maeda mistake.

 

I have not had enough coffee for that level of cleverness!!!

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

As usual, fantastic work, Matthew.

[KFEY93]

 

Pulled some 2019 numbers out of curiousity:

Maeda - 53 BB, 169 SO in 153.2 IP

Odorizzi - 53 BB, 178 SO in 159 IP

Berrios - 51 BB, 195 SO in 200.1 IP

Price - 32BB, 128 SO in 107.1 IP

Cole - 48 BB, 326 (!) SO in 212.1 IP

Wheeler - 50 BB, 195 SO in 195.1 IP

Imagine getting someone with Double the strike outs of our best pitchers in not quite a quarter more of the innings. 

[ToddlerHarmon]

Odo, Maeda, and Hill all look like good candidates for shutdown 4- and 5-inning pitchers. Which is great, if we make sure we have several 2- and 3-inning relievers. May, Duffey, and Littell certainly could do that if the workload is managed. Put them on a set 3-game rotation, and you might have a recipe for keeping the starters fresh and effective

[Harrison Greeley III]

That's interesting about Maeda's pitch mixes against lefties and righties.

I know the Twins are big into having players help and coach each other. And I know they've been working on Berrios using a more change-up heavy mix against lefties and more curveballs against righties. I'm wondering if part of the thought process of bringing in Maeda is to create and build a co-worker relationship with Berrios. 

[howeda7]

Maeda is not an ace, but he's solid. And I think we are under-estimating the chances that Graterol is the next Alex Meyer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Dodgers were absolutely holding him back to save money. His third time through splits were bad, but so are just about every MLB pitchers. The Dodgers were famous for manipulating pitchers innings. Part of it was money related, for guys like Ryu it was health related, and in some cases it was just because of their pitching depth. Some of the best analysts in the baseball world are rejoicing Maeda escaping the "Dodgeritis", the term coined to describe their consistent limiting of pitchers. 

I'm not sure I understand. You say it was absolutely due to money, but then you cite depth -- it appears the Dodgers absolutely had a depth reason for holding back Maeda. He ranked last in ERA among their top 7-9 starters (by GS) each season from 2017-2019, the 3 years they have shifted him to the pen.

 

Seems like depth was a much bigger reason than money (especially considering Maeda's incentives would have been irrelevant to their luxury tax bracket for 2017, at least).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 

He's speechless!

[dex8425]

 

Maeda is not an ace, but he's solid. And I think we are under-estimating the chances that Graterol is the next Alex Meyer.

Agreed. Although I bet he ends up being halfway between the next Fernando Romero and the next Trevor May.  He will maybe be very useful in a bullpen role, eventually. 

[Cody Pirkl]

 

I'm not sure I understand. You say it was absolutely due to money, but then you cite depth -- it appears the Dodgers absolutely had a depth reason for holding back Maeda. He ranked last in ERA among their top 7-9 starters (by GS) each season from 2017-2019, the 3 years they have shifted him to the pen.

 

Seems like depth was a much bigger reason than money (especially considering Maeda's incentives would have been irrelevant to their luxury tax bracket for 2017, at least).

You're definitely correct. Depth played a role in their decision to move him to the bullpen. Maeda did have their highest ERA in those years, but he was far from bad. I'd guess they looked at more than his ERA when moving him to the bullpen which is where his contract comes in. Why not save the money? I only argue his contract because I don't think it's fair to say that his poor performance pushed him into the bullpen. He would have likely been a season long #3 starter for most teams with the numbers he put up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You're definitely correct. Depth played a role in their decision to move him to the bullpen. Maeda did have their highest ERA in those years, but he was far from bad. I'd guess they looked at more than his ERA when moving him to the bullpen which is where his contract comes in. Why not save the money? I only argue his contract because I don't think it's fair to say that his poor performance pushed him into the bullpen. He would have likely been a season long #3 starter for most teams with the numbers he put up.

I think his postseason usage is the clincher here. They used him exclusively as a reliever (and primarily a 1-inning reliever) in the 2017-2019 postseasons, when his contract incentives were 100% irrelevant. That tells me it was far more of a baseball decision than a financial one.

 

Keep in mind, while you or I may think "money is money, why not save it", money alone is of very little concern for the Dodgers -- their revenues can support all kinds of player spending. What's more important is 1) winning a World Series, and 2) what luxury tax bracket they end up in. And they had a lot more ways to address their luxury tax bracket than holding back Maeda, especially if they felt it compromised their World Series goal at all.

[Darius]

This guy is not an “ace.” Flat out.

 

You have to throw more than 150 innings to be put in that department. You have to be able to get a batter out the third time through the lineup to be put in that department. Your swing and miss stuff has to translate to sustaining an ERA under 4.00 to be put in that department.

 

The innings being down in recent years aren’t really a positive, either, because he was worked heavily in Japan (200+ a year) before coming over. Still a ton of miles on that arm.

 

I like Maeda in a vacuum. But, I think the hype train is a little out of control. The Dodgers didn’t think enough of him to start him in the playoffs. That says something, and that’s what the Twins really need. If we’re talking about playoff relievers, I’d rather have Graterol as a 21 year old under team control than a mediocre 30+ year old. If he’s a playoff starter, he’s not good enough to make a difference. Pineda down the stretch last year was better than Maeda, and nobody thinks Pineda is a transcendent lockdown playoff guy.

 

Many are raving about this move a little too much (I’ve heard it referred to as a “fleecing”). I appreciate the aggression, but I’m not sure this is as big a short-term win as some are making it sound. Maeda does not get this team I’ve the hump. Still can’t beat the Yankees in October, IMO. If we’re not gathering pieces to win in October I’d rather keep the 21 year old flamethrower.

 

In order to be in “win now” mode....there has to be some some pitchers on the staff that can be a horse in the playoffs.

 

Overall, I’m not upset about the move. Just doesn’t move the needle. Still like the aggression and, of course, if they still target a legit playoff starter between now and July, the move looks way different.

[MNT1996]

I think the Twins did the right thing with this trade. I believe Graterol had a couple of years left on his development until he could possibly reach his true potential, and right now the Twins are in Win-It-All mode. They wanted a reputable, proven starter and that's what they got in Maeda. Could Graterol develop into being a star ace for the Red Sox? Possibly, but I like that the Twins are finally making impact moves that improve their chances to win in the current year.