Twins are 3rd team in Betts trade

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I really like the trade.  Others have stated why didn't the twins just get Ryu?  The difference is if Maeda doesn't pan out with the Twins, the twins will not be on the hook for an additional 17 million per a year. 

Maeda will get enough of a leash, especially the first year or two, that he's virtually guaranteed some of those incentives, so the cash difference is less than that. And of course, we lose Graterol's current value, which essentially adds ~$20+ mil to Maeda's overall cost even if Graterol doesn't pan out. (Ryu didn't even cost a draft pick.)

 

There's also the upside element. Ryu just completed a 4.8/5.1 fWAR/bWAR season, while Maeda's best so far is 2.9. Maeda's definitely cheaper, but it's because he seems to come with less upside.

 

Edit to add: not that I'm arguing for Ryu over Maeda, but the cost difference between them seems fair. We essentially used a prospect to save money, and further perhaps traded some upside for less financial risk.

[Flipper1a]

The one thing I am worried about is the De Leon factor (The Dodgers don't lose on many trades) & we didn't want De Leon for Dozier years back but TB did for Forsythe.....Dodgers are tricky when it comes to trades.

De León was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament on March 7, 2018.[22] One week later, Dr. James Andrews successfully performed Tommy John surgery, ending De León's 2018 season.[23]

De León returned to game action in May 2019. He returned to the Rays active roster on August 14.[24]

Cincinnati Reds
On November 20, 2019, De León was traded to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for cash considerations or a PTBNL.[25]

I trust Lavine and Falvey when it comes to pitchers; as they made the right call on De Leon as an example. We will see on this one (Graterol for Maeda)....

[sampleSizeOfOne]

A potential ace or at worst a back end of the pen guy that throws gas for a soon-to-be 32-year-old? It might be a 1-year win for them - if "win" means the division, because they're still not getting by the Yankees. But beyond that, I think this is going to bite them in the a$$ for the long-term.

 

They don't have enough impact arms to give them away like this.

But... Don't they have to get by the Yankees to win the division?

 

Oh wait. You're talking about us (Twins) when you say "they". I thought you meant the third team in the trade.

 

Yeah, here's to Graterol outshining the Rocket in Bean Town! And makin' us look bad.

 

But in the immortal words of Bill Smith, "You gotta give something to get something." (and i wasn't paying that close attention, so by all means, someone please dig up what Mr. Smith actually said regarding the Delmon Young trade, i am reasonably confident i got the gist of it)

[bunsen82]

 

Maeda will get enough of a leash, especially the first year or two, that he's virtually guaranteed some of those incentives, so the cash difference is less than that. And of course, we lose Graterol's current value, which essentially adds ~$20+ mil to Maeda's overall cost even if Graterol doesn't pan out. (Ryu didn't even cost a draft pick.)

 

There's also the upside element. Ryu just completed a 4.8/5.1 fWAR/bWAR season, while Maeda's best so far is 2.9. Maeda's definitely cheaper, but it's because he seems to come with less upside.

 

Edit to add: not that I'm arguing for Ryu over Maeda, but the cost difference between them seems fair. We essentially used a prospect to save money, and further perhaps traded some upside for less financial risk.

The difference is the option value of the contract.  Ryu has had much more injuries than Maeda.  However if either one were to blow out an arm, with Ryu you are stuck, and pay the remainder of the contracts at 20 mill per a year plus some possible insurance recovery.  With Maeda it is 3 million a year for the remaining years and you move on.  Health wise I would rather have Maeda than Ryu, although I agree Ryu has outperformed Maeda up to this point when they have been on the field.  Not to say that will continue in the future years. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The difference is the option value of the contract.  Ryu has had much more injuries than Maeda.  However if either one were to blow out an arm, with Ryu you are stuck, and pay the remainder of the contracts at 20 mill per a year plus some possible insurance recovery.  With Maeda it is 3 million a year for the remaining years and you move on. 

Sure, but I also think it's fair for fans to question whether we should be sacrificing upside for less worst-case financial risk. (And it's not like the financial risk of Ryu is that great -- it's not much more than we gave Nolasco, Ervin, or Hughes if you account for baseball salary inflation.)

 

And of course, the player with the absolute lowest financial risk in this discussion is the player we just sent away (Graterol). Keeping him, alongside Ryu, and on balance your risk may be no worse than having Maeda alone. (Although it's more complicated than that of course, with Donaldson's contract etc.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The one thing I am worried about is the De Leon factor

Graterol seems more likely to be the De Leon in this equation, though.

[Bob Sacamento]

Here's zips projections on Maeda and Graterol in the future: 

 

ZiPS Projection – Kenta Maeda
Year W L ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2020 10 8 4.25 34 24 135.7 122 19 50 156 105 2.1
2021 9 7 4.29 31 22 121.7 110 18 45 140 104 1.8
2022 9 7 4.37 30 22 119.3 109 18 45 137 102 1.7
2023 8 7 4.38 28 20 111.0 101 17 42 127 102 1.6

[table]

 

ZiPS Projection – Brusdar Graterol
Year W L ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2020 3 2 3.77 51 0 45.3 41 4 20 46 121 0.5
2021 11 8 4.32 26 26 118.7 117 14 49 104 106 2.0
2022 10 8 4.28 26 26 115.7 113 13 47 103 107 2.0
2023 9 7 4.29 23 23 105.0 103 12 43 94 107 1.8
2024 9 7 4.24 22 22 102.0 99 12 41 93 108 1.8
2025 9 7 4.21 22 22 98.3 94 12 40 91 108 1.8

[/table]

 

Basically Maeda for this year but Graterol for the future and those numbers are conservative 

[Doctor Gast]

I was thinking that Graterol would come back & bite us like David Ortiz did. Then I saw that Boston wants to test him right away as a SP & he`s not ready. I`m afraid that Boston will ride him to the ground before he gets the chance to develop. So in the long haul I think that MN will not be the only one that comes up short but also Graterol. Had high hope w/ Berrios mentoring him

[ashbury]

Here's zips projections on Maeda and Graterol in the future: 

 

ZiPS Projection – Kenta Maeda

Year W L ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WAR

2020 10 8 4.25 34 24 135.7 122 19 50 156 105 2.1

2021 9 7 4.29 31 22 121.7 110 18 45 140 104 1.8

2022 9 7 4.37 30 22 119.3 109 18 45 137 102 1.7

2023 8 7 4.38 28 20 111.0 101 17 42 127 102 1.6

[table]

 

ZiPS Projection – Brusdar Graterol

Year W L ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WAR

2020 3 2 3.77 51 0 45.3 41 4 20 46 121 0.5

2021 11 8 4.32 26 26 118.7 117 14 49 104 106 2.0

2022 10 8 4.28 26 26 115.7 113 13 47 103 107 2.0

2023 9 7 4.29 23 23 105.0 103 12 43 94 107 1.8

2024 9 7 4.24 22 22 102.0 99 12 41 93 108 1.8

2025 9 7 4.21 22 22 98.3 94 12 40 91 108 1.8

[/table]

 

Basically Maeda for this year but Graterol for the future and those numbers are conservative 

I've never looked into the way ZiPS does its work, but any projection that shows 26 starts with a decent ERA but only 118 innings lacks a certain internal-consistency I would expect from a reliable forecasting tool.

 

[nokomismod]

I think this move gives the Twins a good chance to win the division again. I am going to be against Graterol staying healthy and becoming a star in this league based on his history the past few years. 

[Channing1964]

I choose to wrap my feeble mind around what we know we definitely got in this trade. Not in what we might possibly, potentially, could have lost 3,4,5 years from now that may never eventually, ever happen. Prospects are for Losers to trade for.

[KirbyDome89]

Soooooo this is a new development.....

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28644920/prospect-health-holds-3-team-trade-involving-mookie-betts

[ChrisKnutson]

Soooooo this is a new development.....

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28644920/prospect-health-holds-3-team-trade-involving-mookie-betts

The fact that Bloom also sees Graterol as a reliever makes this deal even more likely to fall through, which is actually very understandable on Boston’s part because who’s arm do you have more faith in to hold up as a starter Graterol or Gonsolin?? If by chance Graterol does get dropped from the deal I really hope either Balazovic or Duran aren’t

the ones to take his place because I’d hate that even more. And if that’s what’s being considered, I’d much rather pursue a separate deal with the Dodgers instead.