Twins are 3rd team in Betts trade

[24fan-MackPlouffeDonaldson]

 

If there's not more than Maeda coming back, I'm about done with the Falvine Experience.

Because they are doing things?  They have turned the franchise around in short order and are getting better and better.  You have to give to get.  

[PseudoSABR]

 

Fine ... a 32-year-old that lost his spot in an NL rotation 2 years in a row and is now jumping to the AL for an unprove 21-year-old that projects anywhere from back of the bullpen to the top of the rotation.

 

Better?

Not really. (Come on, you're purposedly not digging into Maeta's secondary stats, including those sexy K rates).

 

I'd be interested in a publication calling Graterol a potential ace, though.

[jud6312]

 

Because they are doing things?  They have turned the franchise around in short order and are getting better and better.  You have to give to get.  

 

The problem isn't that they're doing things, it's that they gave too much and got too little. They convinced themselves that the mystique of working with Wes and coming off of a 100 win season would magically make impact FAs want to come here. It didn't. They panicked and signed two below average veterans, so they panicked again and overpaid for another veteran.

 

I have ZERO problem with making moves - everyone's available - but they seem to be making moves just to be making moves.

[jud6312]

 

Not really. (Come on, you're purposedly not digging into Maeta's secondary stats, including those sexy K rates).

 

I'd be interested in a publication calling Graterol a potential ace, though.

 

National. League.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I need one of these guys or someone more credible than me to assess the talent exchange.  But as far as risk/cost/certainty management the trade wins me over even with my armchair perusal of Maeta's numbers.

Cost and certainty, yes. 

 

But Graterol is a flamethrower with a solid third pitch. It's a tough sell to flip him for a cost-controlled third starter, which is what this appears to be.

[USAFChief]

 

National. League.

The "NL" vs "AL" pitching thing was never that significant, and it's gotten even smaller. There's not a lot of difference in the league average ERA's any more. It's down to around 0.2 ERA.

 

Dunno how Maeda will do, but switching leagues isn't a big deal.

[cmoss84]

This trade makes me feel confused and icky.

[David HK]

 

This trade makes me feel confused and icky.

Me too.

 

Maeda wasn't even on my radar. And I HATE losing Brusdar! Who's going to top the rotation in the Kiriloff/Royce/Larnach/Rooker team?

[SwainZag]

Me too.

 

Maeda wasn't even on my radar. And I HATE losing Brusdar! Who's going to top the rotation in the Kiriloff/Royce/Larnach/Rooker team?

Berrios?

[PseudoSABR]

 

Cost and certainty, yes. 

 

But Graterol is a flamethrower with a solid third pitch. It's a tough sell to flip him for a cost-controlled third starter, which is what this appears to be.

Maeda is not merely cost-controlled--he's not making the 10+ mil contract his performance deserves (see Pineda)--he's a steal on that contract.  Graterol has awesome specs, but still isn't regarded highly nationally in the prospect lists or even by the Twins (hence bullpen).  

 

In any case I'd rather have Maeda than Price, er, well even regardless of price.

[cmoss84]

Me too.

 

Maeda wasn't even on my radar. And I HATE losing Brusdar! Who's going to top the rotation in the Kiriloff/Royce/Larnach/Rooker team?

If the Mets are bad...hopefully 2 of those guys + will be traded for Thor.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Maeda is not merely cost-controlled--he's not making the 10+ mil contract his performance deserves (see Pineda)--he's a steal on that contract.  Graterol has awesome specs, but still isn't regarded highly nationally in the prospect lists or even by the Twins (hence bullpen).  

 

In any case I'd rather have Maeda than Price, er, well even regardless of price.

Oh, I'd definitely rather have Maeda over Price, too, my problem is that this seems to be more of a cost-conscious decision than it should be given expected revenue in the coming years.

 

Maeda is fantastic filler but not what the Twins really need, and that's an upside arm that will fill out the Donaldson/Sano/Polanco/Kepler/Buxton/etc years. 

 

Go big. They shouldn't need to lose both of their top prospects to find a good pitcher, but they can afford to lose one and then a few other good ones, too.

 

Because the Yankees and Astros aren't ****ing around, nor will they stop ****ing around for the next three years. Go hard at them or don't bother. The window is now, either compete with the best or don't.

[Otwins]

I think calling Maeda filler is selling him way short. He is around a top 50 starting pitcher.  Swinging strike leaders   last year.

 

 

Weak contact leaders

 

 

 

Those rankings are not filler

 

[DodgerFan1234]

Dodgers fan here.  Twins are going to love Maeda.  I read in this thread that he's lost his spot in the rotation the last 2 years.  Not true.  His stuff plays up as a bullpen piece in the playoffs for the Dodgers but that mostly has to do with the Dodgers having other options that can't relieve, like Kershaw and Buehler.  But he's still a solid rotation piece and the perfect fit for a small/mid market team where he's only guaranteed 3MM/year base with bonuses based on performance up to 12MM/year.  Twins give up a power arm but probably a solid deal overall for both (all 3) sides.

[obtusebanter]

 

Go big. 

 

This is going big. Graterol in the pen is a luxury. Homer Bailey (not to mention the quad-a fellas) should now just be depth once Pineda and Hill join the rotation. Berrios / Odorizzi / Maeda / Pineda / Hill are all feasible post-season starters. We'll see who stays healthy and proves worthy.

Big upgrade.  

[PseudoSABR]

 

Oh, I'd definitely rather have Maeda over Price, too, my problem is that this seems to be more of a cost-conscious decision than it should be given expected revenue in the coming years.

 

Maeda is fantastic filler but not what the Twins really need, and that's an upside arm that will fill out the Donaldson/Sano/Polanco/Kepler/Buxton/etc years. 

 

Go big. They shouldn't need to lose both of their top prospects to find a good pitcher, but they can afford to lose one and then a few other good ones, too.

 

Because the Yankees and Astros aren't ****ing around, nor will they stop ****ing around for the next three years. Go hard at them or don't bother. The window is now, either compete with the best or don't.

I think Maeda is more than filler (who can't like those Ks).  And giving certainty to the rotation at low cost, doesn't hinder the pursuit of a true ace; in fact, I think it helps. 

 

I wish Graterol the best, but my stomach was already sinking with him being designated to the bullpen.  This feels like a surprisingly good result after that.

[Bob Sacamento]

Twins paid a high price to get a mid rotation arm or possible swingman/multiinning reliever whom the Dodgers have limited his innings the last three seasons on purpose. The argument has been his effectiveness wains deeper in games or in season OR the other reason his contract is based off of appearances and usage:

 

16-23: $3M annually
annual roster bonus: $150,000 for making Opening Day roster
$6.5M annually in performance bonuses based on games started: $1M each 15, 20 GS. $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32 GS
$3.5M annually in performance bonuses based on innings pitched: $250,000 each for 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190 IP. $750,000 200 IP
assignment bonus: $1M with each trade
becomes a free agent at contract’s end
perks: jersey No. 18. Four round-trip business-class airline tickets between Japan and LA annually. Interpreter. Travel expenses, accommodations, visa costs for a player support staff member

 

Personally I worry more for Graterol as the Red Sox pitching development is less to be desired, and I think this more or less makes him a pen arm in the future.

 

This is also what happens in Minnesota when you can't get a top free agent pitcher to sign with you. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This is going big. Graterol in the pen is a luxury. Homer Bailey (not to mention the quad-a fellas) should now just be depth once Pineda and Hill join the rotation. Berrios / Odorizzi / Maeda / Pineda / Hill are all feasible post-season starters. We'll see who stays healthy and proves worthy.

Big upgrade.  

This is an upgrade but it's not going big.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think Maeda is more than filler (who can't like those Ks).  And giving certainty to the rotation at low cost, doesn't hinder the pursuit of a true ace; in fact, I think it helps. 

 

I wish Graterol the best, but my stomach was already sinking with him being designated to the bullpen.  This feels like a surprisingly good result after that.

I'm not bashing Maeda but when I say "filler", I basically mean "somewhere between the Odorizzi-Pineda range".

That's a pretty good player but it's not what the Twins really need right now.

 

Though depth of arms never hurts through a season, that's for sure.

[mickeymental]

not exactly what i meant by repeatedly saying “free brusdar,” but time will tell.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I'm not bashing Maeda but when I say "filler", I basically mean "somewhere between the Odorizzi-Pineda range".

That's a pretty good player but it's not what the Twins really need right now.

 

Though depth of arms never hurts through a season, that's for sure.

I mean you're right they didn't get an ace.  But are there any available? Could Brudsar landed such even as part of package? Maeda is a good get. Fills a need, even if not the chief need. 

[Roaddog]

I'm getting the feeling a lot of the fans are higher on Brusdar than the front office.

[akmanak]

Don't love the trade but Maeda isn't a slouch. He is a proven number 3 or 4 starter and giving up Gat stings a bit but they made a move in an attempt to stabilize our rotation.

[Danchat]

Well, so much for “Falvine will never trade a top prospect”!

 

I like Maeda as the #3 a lot more than Bailey. Starting depth is solid now.

 

I’m conflicted on losing Graterol. Definitely means that Balazovic or Duran will need to step up as our upper rotation prospects.

[nicksaviking]

 

Fine ... a 32-year-old that lost his spot in an NL rotation 2 years in a row and is now jumping to the AL for an unprove 21-year-old that projects anywhere from back of the bullpen to the top of the rotation.

 

Better?

 

He only loses his spot in the rotation so the Dodgers can manipulate his innings and limit his bonus. It was a benefit for a Dodger team that annually and intentionally created a pitching staff with more than five starters. Something that the Twins look like they're gearing up to have come June.

 

I was really hopeful for Graterol, but I assume everyone on this board would trade Fernado Romero or Stephen Gonsavles for Maeda right about now. 

[nicksaviking]

 

This is an upgrade but it's not going big.

 

It's not Strasburg or Cole big, but if Maeda had been a free agent, I'd have taken him over Bumgarner, Keuchel and Ryu.

 

And that salary is nothing to sneeze at. Should the Twins ever find themselves in a position where they don't need Maeda in the next couple of years, that contract is going to bring back a pretty nice return.

[bunsen82]

I really like the trade.  Others have stated why didn't the twins just get Ryu?  The difference is if Maeda doesn't pan out with the Twins, the twins will not be on the hook for an additional 17 million per a year.   The other is Maeda doesn't have quite the command an arsenal that Ryu had, but its actual pretty close, but his fastball is in the 92-95 range where Ryu is high 80's.  There is a very real possibility Maeda has better stats the next 4 years than Ryu. 

 

The other is Maeda was handpicked for available pitchers.  I don't think the Twins make the trade unless they think he will be a #2 pitcher for them or possibly a low end #1.  If with tweaks Maeda can give us close to what Ryu gave to the dodgers last year, no one on the twins side is going to be complaining about the trade.  As to trading graterol it was all about probabilities, I think the Twins thought his probability of being an elite stating pitcher is minimal.  My guess is grateral is going to be worth 8-10 war over the next six years, tops.   I think Maeda will average a 2-3 war  at minimum over the next four years while significantly improving our chances this year.  Thus an 8-12 War.  We still have upside, but not the 20 to 30 War If Grateral pans out, but we also won't be missing anything if he flames out.  Fair trade. 

[akmanak]

This forum sure can be a head scratcher sometimes. A number of posters screamed for the Twins to pick up another quality starter. Maeda is a quality starter and now people are complaining about not picking up a better pitcher?

 

If you looked at free agency this year pitchers were not going cheap at all. Sure the Twins missed out on some all star pitchers but the asking price was horribly high.

 

Gat was a flamethrower but he also had control issues and was not proven yet. Maeda is a proven starter . Which is exactly what we needed

 

You can't simply expect a team to give away a starter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He only loses his spot in the rotation so the Dodgers can manipulate his innings and limit his bonus.

I'm not so sure. Maeda ranked last in ERA among the Dodgers top 7-9 starters (by GS) each year from 2017-2019. And his potential incentives were irrelevant to their tax bracket in 2017, at least (not so sure in 2018-2019, although there are a lot of other factors involved too).

 

The fact that they kept him in the pen for the postseason those 3 years, when his contract incentives no longer mattered, suggests it was a baseball decision much more than a financial one.

[markos]

 

I'm not so sure. Maeda ranked last in ERA among the Dodgers top 7-9 starters (by GS) each year from 2017-2019. And his potential incentives were irrelevant to their tax bracket in 2017, at least (not so sure in 2018-2019, although there are a lot of other factors involved too).

 

The fact that they kept him in the pen for the postseason those 3 years, when his contract incentives no longer mattered, suggests it was a baseball decision much more than a financial one.

Not only did they keep him in the pen for the postseason, but they didn't use him like he was a multi-inning shutdown reliever - he faced fewer batters in their World Series runs than Pedro Baez, Brandon Marrow, and Alex Wood, and over the past 4 post seasons pitched less than 8% of their total innings.