Ranking the Top 10 Minnesota Twins Starting Pitching Trade Targets

[Nate Palmer]

Minnesota Twins fans still are waiting for a significant upgrade to the starting rotation. Here is a look based on rumors of who may be available of the top 10 arms for the team to target between now and the trade deadline.It seems the Minnesota Twins will at some point return to the trade market for an improvement on the 2020 starting rotation. We may be waiting until the trade deadline for that move to come, but in the time until then let’s rank who may be available for the Twins to explore.

 

1. Joe Musgrove

4.44 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 3.3 fWAR

8.30 K/9 (21.9 K%), 2.06 BB/9 (5.4 BB%)

Contact Rates: Med 43.8%, Hard 37.3%

Swinging Strike 12.0%

 

Musgrove looks ready to take a step now to fit in the #2-#3 place in the Twins rotation. He may not have elite velocity all the time but averages around 93 mph and tops out at 95-97 mph. Who knows what Wes Johnson might be able to add to that mix to help him take those next steps to join Odorizzi and Berrios at the top of the rotation.

 

2. Matthew Boyd

4.56 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 3.3 fWAR

11.56 K/9 (30.2 K%) , 2.43 BB/9 (6.4 BB%)

Contact Rates: Med 41.8%, 40.7%

Swinging Strike 14.0%

 

I very easily could have put Boyd #1. His average velocity is similar to Musgrove but to this point has better swing and miss stuff. Call it a gut call and know I won't hate anyone for disagreeing with me especially on this ranking.

 

3. Jon Gray

3.84 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 2.9 fWAR

9.00 K/9 (23.6 K%) 3.36 BB/9 (8.8 BB%)

Contact rates: Med 45%, Hard 39.8%

Swinging Strike 11.7%

 

I may kick myself for this ranking. For what feels like ever Gray has been my target and hope for the Twins to acquire. His velocity is a bit better than the first two but doesn’t have the swing and miss capabilities yet. What I think knocked him down was his 50.4% groudball rate in 2019. That works with Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado, but even with Josh Donaldson in the mix, does it work as well for the Twins?

 

4. Marco Gonzales

3.99 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 3.7 fWAR

6.52 K/9 (17.0 K%), 2.48 BB/9 (6.5 BB%)

Contact Rates Medium 48.6%, Hard 33.3%

Swinging Strike 7.9%

 

Outside of the simple assumption that the Mariners won’t be competitive this year we haven’t heard Gonzales’ name nearly as much. He is not nearly as sexy of choice as the others before him on the list but just seemed to get things done in 2019.

 

5. Robbie Ray

4.34 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 2.4 fWAR

12.13 K/9 (31.5 K%), 4.34 BB/9 (11.2 BB%)

Contact Rates: Med 40.3%, Hard 43.4%

Swinging Strike 13.6%

 

After the Diamondbacks acquired Starling Marte this seems like an even less likely trade at least until mid-summer. The one year deal also doesn’t feel like the sort of trade this front office would want to pursue. So maybe likelihood is creeping into my ranking but he also has the highest walk rate so far out of the pitchers we have looked at.

 

6. Sandy Alcantara

3.88 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 2.3 fWAR

6.89 K/9 (18.0 K%), 3.69 BB/9 (9.7 BB%)

Contact Rates Medium 45.7%, Hard 34.6%

Swinging Strike 11.0%

 

The Twins have certainly been linked to the Miami Marlins this off-season. Alcantara seems to be the most attractive arm available. He doesn’t currently have the results of huge swing and miss stuff, but the tools seem to be there. Here is a deeper look into Alcantara.

 

7. Chris Sale

4.40 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.6 fWAR

13.32 K/9 (35.6%), 2.26 BB/9 (6.1%)

Contact Rates Medium 47.1%, Hard 36.0%

Swinging Strike 14.2%

 

Sale is probably hard to get, but if he would be made available he continues to pitch well. We have also seen in the past his ability to be a true frontline ace. Is that ability still there? That would be the gamble that would be taken.

 

8. David Price

4.28 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 2.3 fWAR

10.73 K/9 (28.0%), 2.68 BB/9 (7.0%)

Contact Rates: Med 43.4%, Hard 36.9%

Swing Strike 11.2%

 

Second Red Sox pitcher in row, similar story. Difference is we know Price is much more available due to his 3 year, $96 million contract. Is there enough in the tank to trade for that price tag is the question teams continue to ask.

 

9. Chris Archer

5.19 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 0.7 fWAR

10.75 K/9(27.2%), 4.14 BB/9(10.5%)

Contact Rates Medium 43.5%, Hard 40.1%

Swinging Strike 12.9%

 

This will feel very low to many for Archer. On contract alone I considered flipping him and Price, but unlike many I don’t think Archer’s problem is just pitching in Pittsburgh. I wrote more here about how the signs were there for decline before the trade.

 

10. Caleb Smith

4.52 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 1.0 fWAR

9.86 K/9(26.0%), 3.52 BB/9 (9.3%)

Contact Rates Medium 45.9%, Hard 37.4%

Swinging Strike 12.6%

 

Smith burst onto the scene a bit last season. The buzz around him made him feel much better than the numbers do. Nothing stellar but if the Twins see something that can be adjusted to get even more results the left-hander he is certainly an arm worth exploring.

 

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[TwinsTakes-RD]

Marco Gonzalez just signed a new 4-year deal today with the Mariners so he’s likely off the trade market.

[howieramone2]

I would wait on Price and go 3 years for 36M. At some point in time Boston will be forced to shed payroll. I can't see our benevolent owner going 3 for 48M.

[yeahyabetcha]

No interest in any of these today. Re-evaluate on June 1st.

[DocBauer]

1] Musgrove and Alcantara might be my top 2 targets based on youth, projectability and availability. Miami and Pittsburgh aren't going anywhere soon.

 

I'm not convinced on Boyd yet, plus there is the whole inter-divisional situation.

 

2] I fluctuate between Ray and Gray. But I absolutely don't like only 1yr guaranteed on Ray.

 

3] Boston absolutely has to perform some sort of rebuild/retool. Really not sure they will be ready to move Sale. And if they are, I want to feel confident he is on the rebound, even if that obviously means a higher cost to the Twins.

 

Pretty much how I rank everyone at this time, leaving out Price and just really unsure about Archer.

 

It's interesting to think about this mid-year scenario even before the season begins. And there are a whole of things that can and will change between now and then, not only for the Twins, but for other teams as well.

 

But speaking ONLY about the Twins situation, as it unfolds:

 

1] What if Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda pitch just as well as last season? For Berrios in particular, it's not just about improving, but carrying his numbers/ability through the entire season.

 

2] What if last season, especially his last couple of months, Bailey is 100% healthy finally, and his change in approach is not an iillusion? You might have a really nice and experienced back of the rotation arm.

 

3] I believe it was Thrylos who recently posted career comparisons between Gibson and Chacin and I was really surprised. What if previous seasons, especially 2017-18 are the real pitcher and he surprises in 2020 by being that guy again, or at least close to it?

 

4] What if Dobnak and Thorpe just keep getting better and better?

 

5] What if Hill isn't 100% ready to go until end of June or early July? Do we care? Wasn't he signed, really, to be a 1/2 season SP with the ability to perform well and even dominate for that 1/2 season?

 

6] Totally forgoing any 2nd half season internal surprise like Duran, Balazovic, Colina, Graterol back in the rotation, etc, what if our bullpen really is as deep and good and most of us believe it is/can be, to offset any "limitations" of the rotation?

 

We can say there are a lot of "what if" possibilities here. But it doesn't take rose-colored glasses to acknowledge that these possibilities are not the least far-fetched. And I am not dismissing a big move of any sort to push the Twins of 2020 over the top. My point is, a big 2nd half trade target, assuming availability, simply may not be the all in necessity that we may believe is needed as we sit here today.

[highlander]

We can only dream of getting Price at his peak!

[beckmt]

This list will change a lot over the next few months.   Musgrove will cost a lot, but like him better than some of the short term prospects.  More into develop our own and then trade only if needed.  

None of these scream 'ACE'

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you for this interesting article. A subject that I`m very interested in. 

As a present pitcher I like Chris Sales the best & more like an ace but don`t know if he can maintain his stuff that justifies his high contract & how available he is. 

 PIT has some pitchers I like; Musgrove, Archer & Stratton. We have PIT early in ST maybe Wes will have a good look & swing a deal w/ Sheldon. By his record Musgrove is better & will cost more in trade But I`m not convinced in his stuff. Archer has a lot of upside & a change scenery will do him a lot good so he`s my #1 pick due to his availability, trade cost & upside. Stratton would be a low cost project.

 I believe Jon Gray #2 can be available at the deadline depending on where CO is. CO because of the location stress keeping the ball low so that`s why Gray has a high% GB, I believe he can have better stuff in enlarging his pitching selection

 MIA will have some pitchers available @ deadline if Wes can do his magic w/ them

It all boils down who`s available & who Wes figures he can work w/.

[mikelink45]

The only thing that this list does for me is emphasize the danger in long term contracts for pitchers who have already reached their peaks.  No I do not want Price, Archer of Sale.  Let their contracts weigh down their current teams and not ours.  Pitchers are fragile and they usually get paid after they have reached the point where injury and age are about to take them down.   Chris Archer (31) had 0.8 WAR last year, David Price (34) 1.9, Chris Sale (30) 2.3 despite being 6 - 11 with 4.40 ERA .  No thanks.  I think we have enough this year and if we are courageous about reaching down and taking the younger and more talented players in our own system we will gain more value in the long term.  

 

I would have like to see the ages on each pitcher listed because that makes a big difference to me. 

[Matthew Taylor]

I'm a big Matthew Boyd guy. Those strikeout numbers are so enticing and the shift from Rick Anderson to Wes Johnson could work absolute wonders on him. Boyd had an xFIP last year of 3.88 and was clearly impacted by playing for a horrendous Tigers team.

[Linus]

Great article. I think this illustrates that there is danger in counting on a mid season trade. There is just not much out there

[4twinsJA]

Agree with MikeLink, not a fan of trading for over paid past their peak pitchers.  Prefer pitchers on the rise, wait until trade deadline.

[howieramone2]

A mid-market team needs to be in the hunt to improve every day. The trade market is just starting to heat up. No doubt the list of sellers will expand at the deadline, but IMO the first #3 we can obtain and the heavy lifting is done.

[KFEY93]

 

Marco Gonzalez just signed a new 4-year deal today with the Mariners so he’s likely off the trade market.

Big if true. 

[Minny505]

1) Sign me up for some Joe Musgrove, though that would understandably be a big haul.

 

2) Would like Chris Sale if he's available, which I doubt he is. Sox are going to want to get him back healthy and dominating to maximize value. With a five year contract, they are in no hurry.

 

3) Would love to get Price if Sox will take that down to something like 3/$60. He is on that "Odorizi or better" level that everyone seems to have as the bar.

 

4) Hard pass on Alcantara. I'll probably never change minds on this, but here goes. The man is exactly the same age as Devin Smeltzer, to the day. They pitched all thru the minors against the same competition, same levels, same age. Smeltzer was the superior performer thru it all by just about every analytic stat. At every individual level. You could easily argue Smeltzer had better peripherals in the majors in 2019. I know some people warn against scouting the stat line, but their is some value there and the four years of directly comparable results would indicate that they are essentially the same level of pitcher. I do not argue that Alcantara will likely be a better major league pitcher, but if you think Smeltzer is a 5 at best, then Alcantara is a 4 at best. We don't need more pitchers to fill out the middle/bottom of the rotation. We need guys who are going to pitch game 1, 2, or 3 of the ALDS. Alcantara will never be that good (in this man's 'scouting the stat line' opinion) and is not worth anywhere near the prospect capital he would likely require. I'm good with something like an 11-15 prospect paired with a 16-20 prospect in our system, but I doubt Miami would go for that. Alcantara is a Bill Smith wet dream. Throws hard as hell, but has never indicated he can get great results from it.

 

5) Regarding Jon Gray and all ground ball pitchers, I'm not sure they are a good idea with this defense that is amazing in the OF, but mediocre at best in the IF. I'd love if there was a study available about pitcher BIP tendencies and OF/IF defenses. Anyone have anything to share?

 

6) As for the rest, if the pitching coaches see tweaks to be made that can make them Odorizi or better, make it happen. None of them really are Odorizi or better as of now.

[specialiststeve]

Maeda.....

[goulik]

Maeda.....

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