The Twins Have too Many Good Outfielders; Can They Make Room for Them?

[Cooper Carlson]

This Twins front office has emphasized building a sustainable winner since they took over and they seem to have succeeded so far. Their strategy has worked so well that they now have a good problem of having to deal with a surplus of MLB-caliber outfielders who the Twins simply don’t have room for.The Twins will begin the 2020 season with Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler in the outfield. That is a group many teams would love to have, both offensively and defensively. If one of them goes down the Twins can easily turn to Jake Cave, Marwin Gonzalez, or LaMonte Wade jr. and they will be just fine playing every day. If everything went absolutely horribly wrong, the Twins could turn to any of Brent Rooker, Alex Kirilloff, or Luke Raley to play every day and they would likely be just fine. Basically what I’m saying is the Twins have A LOT of outfielders ready or almost ready to play in the majors. Where will they all fit?

 

Here is every MLB outfielder and every minor league outfielder who will be ready to contribute by some point in 2021:

 

Current major league players with years of team control remaining:

• Eddie Rosario: Two years
• Byron Buxton: Three years
• Max Kepler: Five years
• Jake Cave: Five years
• LaMonte Wade Jr: Six years

Prospects expected to arrive within the next two years:

• Luke Raley
• Alex Kirilloff
• Brent Rooker
• Trevor Larnach
• Royce Lewis?

Will all three current starters be on the team in coming years? Let’s take a look.

 

Eddie Rosario: I don’t expect Rosario to be on this team past his arbitration years which means 2021 will likely be his last year in a Twins uniform. The cost is rising too much for a corner outfielder who is trending downwards and the Twins obviously have the depth to replace him. This will open up a spot for someone, but unless he is traded it will take until the start of the 2022 season.

 

Byron Buxton: It’s tough to say what the future holds for Buxton in Minnesota. Even if he leaves after arbitration that won’t be until after the 2022 season and the Twins have been rumored to want to extend him. I don’t think he will be leaving any time soon so that locks one outfield spot for well past when these prospects should be ready to take over.

 

Max Kepler: This one is easy. Max is staying in Minnesota for at least the next five years. I believe he is a budding star and is on one of the most team friendly contracts in baseball. He won’t be traded or released so that locks up another outfield spot for the long run.

 

After going over those three we are left with Buxton and Kepler likely being locked into starting spots for the next three to five years and Rosario as the only one who will likely be replaced. One spot to take with many top prospects upcoming will mean they’ll have to make room somehow. Here are a couple options…

 

Someone becomes the new designated hitter: Nelson Cruz is on the final year of his two-year contract so if the Twins don’t bring him back then perhaps a prospect can take over that role. Kirilloff, Rooker, Raley, and Larnach are all much better offensively than defensively so maybe that would work.

 

Trade prospects for pitching: This just makes a ton of sense and seems inevitable, right? The Twins will need that impact pitcher and they have more than enough outfielders to be successful for a long time. Eventually the Twins will have to pay the price for that player to put them over the top.

 

What do you think about the great problem the Twins have coming up? Honestly the fact that I am writing about the Twins having too many good players just shows how good this team is. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

 

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[Shaitan]

Remember when Ryan LaMarre was starting in September, or when infielder Luis Arraez was put in LF repeatedly last year?

 

Yes. They will make room for them. 

[LeatherAntenna]

If Buxton gets injured again this year as much as we love the guy why extend him?  He is at this time a frustrating figment of baseball imagination and continuous injury eventually tells us MLB baseball much longer may not be in the cards for him.

[bobs]

As a diehard Twins fan, I love hearing the names of the young guys coming up.  However, you develop players to help your team win.  I think there is enough depth here that one or two of the OF prospects should be dealt for pitching.  Trading them is still a way to use them to win games.

[jud6312]

Most likely, assuming Buxton stays healthy is he mans CF, with Max in one corner and Larnach in the other. Kirilloff becomes the primary 1st baseman, Rooker the DH, and Wade the 4th OF.

 

Eddie is probably moved for pitching.

 

Cave, do we really care all that much?

 

Raley could also be moved for pitching.

[jkcarew]

LaMonte Wade was a below-average offensive player in AAA last year. But this year if forced to play regularly at the major-league level...at a corner outfield position no less...he’ll be a “fine” major league player? I like the optimism.

[High heat]

The problem with this depth is that no one can play CF and Buxton is regularly out. Yes you can move Kepler over but now you take a good right fielder and make him an average CFer and replace him with a below average RFer. Making the total outfield defense from a strength to a weakness.

Really like the OF depth but should be moved for pitching at the deadline even if you have to overpay.

Kirilloff is the guy who seems like he could be a big time difference maker with the bat and am hoping he sticks to see him in a twins uniform

[High heat]

The problem with this depth is that no one can play CF and Buxton is regularly out. Yes you can move Kepler over but now you take a good right fielder and make him an average CFer and replace him with a below average RFer. Making the total outfield defense from a strength to a weakness.

Really like the OF depth but should be moved for pitching at the deadline even if you have to overpay.

Kirilloff is the guy who seems like he could be a big time difference maker with the bat and am hoping he sticks to see him in a twins uniform

[TL]

It’s looking to me like Lewis eventually gets moved to CF. Buxton may not resign and in any event he is injury prone. Unless Lewis provides a significant upgrade to Polanco (hopeful, but seems unlikely) or they move Arraez for pitching and put Lewis at 2B I think CF may be where he ends up. In fact if Lewis has a good year at the plate I have confidence he could be the best option in CF if it became necessary to trade Buxton to get a #1 starter.

[Platoon]

I don’t think Jake Cave and "they will be just fine" should be used in the same sentence.

[Doctor Gast]

 

It’s looking to me like Lewis eventually gets moved to CF. Buxton may not resign and in any event he is injury prone. Unless Lewis provides a significant upgrade to Polanco (hopeful, but seems unlikely) or they move Arraez for pitching and put Lewis at 2B I think CF may be where he ends up. In fact if Lewis has a good year at the plate I have confidence he could be the best option in CF if it became necessary to trade Buxton to get a #1 starter.

A lot of people would like to trade Rosario because they don`t like his defense but do we have anyone below him that can hit better than him & play better LF? I don`t think so! This year Rosario`s goal is to improve his defense & be more patient at the plate. He has the tools to be a good or even great LF, if he determines to do so.

 Our prospects need to work on their defense, we need our prospect play both ways well. Our goal shouldn`t be make them all DH, that`s for older players who have paid their dues. I agree we need someone who can substitute at CF. Kepler is good but I`d rather keep him at RF. So Lewis is our best option right now & I`d like Donaldson get a hold of Lewis`s swing & do something w/ it.

 W/ the log jam in the outfield. the only solution is to trade them for impact pitching

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don’t think Jake Cave and "they will be just fine" should be used in the same sentence.

 

Cave has shown he can hit at this level at a well above average clip for a CF... Yeah, his defense isn't spectacular, but it's worth noting that his offense cancells that out...

 

We have several CFs on this roster in Cave, Kepler, Wade, and even Rosario in a pinch. I think to an extent we're spoiled by Buxton whose defense is off the charts.... not a bad problem to have, but Buxton going down won't cripple this team. That said, I hope he hits like he did last year and plays 150 games... 

[USAFChief]

 

Cave has shown he can hit at this level at a well above average clip for a CF... Yeah, his defense isn't spectacular, but it's worth noting that his offense cancells that out...

 

We have several CFs on this roster in Cave, Kepler, Wade, and even Rosario in a pinch. I think to an extent we're spoiled by Buxton whose defense is off the charts.... not a bad problem to have, but Buxton going down won't cripple this team. That said, I hope he hits like he did last year and plays 150 games... 

There's one CF on the roster, Buxton.

 

Kepler can play CF in a pinch. 

 

Cave and Wade shouldn't see CF except in an emergency.

 

Rosario isn't even a good left fielder.

[miracleb]

Wade might be a solid defensive outfielder.....but I don't see him ever being more than a "4th outfielder."

[chpettit19]

Kepler, Buxton, and Kiriloff (and Lewis if he's moved to the OF) are the only 3 (4) guys listed here that have the chance to be above average ML outfielders. Larnach looks to be a solid average MLB starting corner OFer. Wade, Cave, Rooker, Raley are all decent players who can be nice 4th outfielders, but if you're relying on more than 1 of them to be an everyday outfielder for you you're not winning the way we all want the Twins to win. (I don't mention Rosario cuz I think it's a foregone conclusion that he isn't extended beyond next year)

 

The idea of trading any outfielder not named Kepler, Buxton, Kiriloff, or Lewis (maybe Larnach) and getting back "impact pitching" that can slot in at or above the Berrios/Odo level is a pipe dream. Nobody is giving up that kind of pitching for a combination of 4th OFs that can possibly hit, but not field. Could you get a Pineda type for them? Sure. Older guy who is good, not great, and slots in at your 3 or, preferably, 4 spot in your postseason rotation.

 

I don't know that I'd call the current situation a logjam outside of Kiriloff being currently blocked by Rosario. With the injuries that happen throughout the year (and Buxton's history alone) this isn't a logjam, it's needed depth. The hope is that Kiriloff is over his wrist injury from last year and comes out the gate mashing. At that point when one of your ML starters goes down you mix him in to get him some exposure. If it gets to playoff time you aren't relying on a mix of 4th OFers or a guy with no ML experience. If he pulls an Arraez and never lets go of the job Rosario becomes your 4th OF and LH bat off the bench. Or part of DH rotation if Cruz finally shows his age or is hurt himself.

 

If it's the bottom of the 9th and the tying run is on 3rd and winning run is on 2nd with 2 outs and a chance to go to the WS on the line I don't want the season coming down to Raley, Rooker, Wade, or Cave having to knock in those runs.

[dbminn]

The Twins OF looks deep. The bench is ok too. Cave is a good 4th OF and Marwin is solid if he isn't needed elsewhere. Kepler is an elite RF and an above-average CF when Buxton isn't available. 

 

Things rarely work out as planned. Buxton played 87 games in 2019. Kepler and Rosario reached 130 games each. Buxton had offseason surgery. Rosario played with a damaged ankle from June to the end of the season. Kepler needed physical therapy this winter. 

 

The prospects had physical problems too. Rooker and Raley combined for 400 PA. Kirilloff suffered two wrist injuries. Lewis missed the 1st month of games. Larnach was the only one who played a full season.

 

There is enough depth if the Twins trade Larnach or Kirilloff for a front line starting pitcher. There's no need to trade either of them if the right pitcher isn't available. Injuries will happen. If one of them tears up the minors and is healthy, they'll find a spot with the Twins.

 

Rooker isn't on the 40-man roster. Wade has options. Raley is the only OF the Twins need to make a relatively quick decision about because he's on the 40-man roster and may not fit into their plans in 2020.

[jkcarew]

 

The prospects had physical problems too. Rooker and Raley combined for 400 PA.

Good point. Their combined 137 K's in those 412 AAA PA, just made it SEEM like they played a lot more

[Riverbrian]

I'm out of the prediction game. I'm not even going to guess what Cave, Wade, Larnach, Rooker, Kiriloff, or Lewis is going to be this year or beyond next year. I'm not going to guess what Rosario, Buxton, Kepler will be next or beyond next year. 

 

I don't know... none of us know... the front office doesn't know.

 

If the front office knew, Nick Anderson would in our bullpen today. David Ortiz would be entering the HOF as a Twin, Alex Meyer would have never been traded for, ETC, ETC. 

 

I do know this: 

 

Jake Cave has 481 career big league AB's. He has a career big league 111 OPS+ (not to mention a .964 OPS in Rochester last season when he wasn't with the club. 

 

Eddie Rosario has 2451 career big league AB's. He has a career 108 OPS+

 

Max Kepler has 1970 career big league AB's. He has a career 103 OPS+

 

Byron Buxton has 1250 career big league AB's. He has a career 87 OPS+ 

 

So when I read posts that state: "Cave, do we really care all that much"?

 

You should. 

 

Because here is what else I know for sure. 

 

Cave makes 600K and he will make 600K next year. 

Rosario makes 7.75 Million this year and he will make over 10 million next year. 

 

In other words... You better be right when you say "Cave, do we really care all that much". Because when an organization dismisses the 400 AB's and 111 OPS+ out of hand. Rosario has to perform significantly better to justify the cost per of 10 Million plus dollars with 1 year before hitting free agency.

 

Because here is what else I know for sure:

 

That 10 million comes directly out of next years budget and it becomes 10 million plus that can't be spent on a starting pitcher which limits the quality of the starting pitcher that you can acquire and we need 3 of them and as it stands we will have around 30 million to spend on 10 players just to field 26 roster spots. 

 

Here is something else I know for sure:

 

The Twins will not reach a 200 million dollar payroll, there is a limit too how much they will spend and every time you dismiss a potential 600K talent for a 10 million dollar talent who is just a little better (if he is). You are basically committing the team to signing cheap Jason Bartletts in the future because those 10 millioin dollar guys add up and the budget will be spent and it is all the money you have left to work with.  I will just remind you that you started this domino back in January 2020 when you decided that Rosario, Buxton and Kepler are your guys and Cave? Nobody cares that much. 

 

Here is what else I know for sure:

 

Dave Dombroski is gone because he ran out of money and he didn't make the playoffs last year and his only solution to fix the problem was too spend even more money because he routinely dismissed Jake Cave type players out of hand or traded away his Larnach type players.  

 

 

[goulik]

 

Most likely, assuming Buxton stays healthy is he mans CF, with Max in one corner and Larnach in the other. Kirilloff becomes the primary 1st baseman, Rooker the DH, and Wade the 4th OF.

Wait, Uh, Sano was just locked up to an extension. Either 1B or DH is off the table....

[jud6312]

 

Wait, Uh, Sano was just locked up to an extension. Either 1B or DH is off the table....

 

Good catch. Add Rooker to the "trade for pitching" pile.

[jud6312]

 

I'm out of the prediction game. I'm not even going to guess what Cave, Wade, Larnach, Rooker, Kiriloff, or Lewis is going to be this year or beyond next year. I'm not going to guess what Rosario, Buxton, Kepler will be next or beyond next year. 

 

I don't know... none of us know... the front office doesn't know.

 

If the front office knew, Nick Anderson would in our bullpen today. David Ortiz would be entering the HOF as a Twin, Alex Meyer would have never been traded for, ETC, ETC. 

 

I do know this: 

 

Jake Cave has 481 career big league AB's. He has a career big league 111 OPS+ (not to mention a .964 OPS in Rochester last season when he wasn't with the club. 

 

Eddie Rosario has 2451 career big league AB's. He has a career 108 OPS+

 

Max Kepler has 1970 career big league AB's. He has a career 103 OPS+

 

Byron Buxton has 1250 career big league AB's. He has a career 87 OPS+ 

 

So when I read posts that state: "Cave, do we really care all that much"?

 

You should. 

 

Because here is what else I know for sure. 

 

Cave makes 600K and he will make 600K next year. 

Rosario makes 7.75 Million this year and he will make over 10 million next year. 

 

In other words... You better be right when you say "Cave, do we really care all that much". Because when an organization dismisses the 400 AB's and 111 OPS+ out of hand. Rosario has to perform significantly better to justify the cost per of 10 Million plus dollars with 1 year before hitting free agency.

 

Because here is what else I know for sure:

 

That 10 million comes directly out of next years budget and it becomes 10 million plus that can't be spent on a starting pitcher which limits the quality of the starting pitcher that you can acquire and we need 3 of them and as it stands we will have around 30 million to spend on 10 players just to field 26 roster spots. 

 

Here is something else I know for sure:

 

The Twins will not reach a 200 million dollar payroll, there is a limit too how much they will spend and every time you dismiss a potential 600K talent for a 10 million dollar talent who is just a little better (if he is). You are basically committing the team to signing cheap Jason Bartletts in the future because those 10 millioin dollar guys add up and the budget will be spent and it is all the money you have left to work with.  I will just remind you that you started this domino back in January 2020 when you decided that Rosario, Buxton and Kepler are your guys and Cave? Nobody cares that much. 

 

Here is what else I know for sure:

 

Dave Dombroski is gone because he ran out of money and he didn't make the playoffs last year and his only solution to fix the problem was too spend even more money because he routinely dismissed Jake Cave type players out of hand or traded away his Larnach type players.  

 

If you're going to quote me, you could have at least replied so I knew you were calling me out on my Cave take.

 

You can look at OPS+ all you want, but Jake Cave isn't a better hitter than Rosario. He might be a better value in pure salary numbers, but that's where the comparison ends. The guy is a decent 4th outfielder, but he's average at everything and great at nothing.

 

I would 100% roll the dice on Larnach, Kirilloff, Rooker or even Blankenhorn over him as an everyday player, because it's likely he's reached his ceiling, which is fine for the role he fills, but not as a starter you can trot out there comfortably for a full season.

 

At least he's not Ryan LaMarre.

[Cooper Carlson]

LaMonte Wade was a below-average offensive player in AAA last year. But this year if forced to play regularly at the major-league level...at a corner outfield position no less...he’ll be a “fine” major league player? I like the optimism.

He had a .348 OBP in the MLB and played fine defense. He would be an average player.

[USAFChief]

 

He had a .348 OBP in the MLB and played fine defense. He would be an average player.

69 PAs isn't much to base that on, is it?

 

He posted a career .712 OPS in AAA in over 600 PAs.

 

I'm not sure, of course, but if I'm betting the over/under on "average everyday MLB corner outfielder" for Wade, I'm betting the under.

[Cooper Carlson]

69 PAs isn't much to base that on, is it?

 

He posted a career .712 OPS in AAA in over 600 PAs.

 

I'm not sure, of course, but if I'm betting the over/under on "average everyday MLB corner outfielder" for Wade, I'm betting the under.

That’s fair for sure. I just think he has the tools and he would be on quite a few MLB rosters.

[twins_89]

Celestino probably needs to be in the discussion as well. If he maintains the hitting he showed the second half of last season I could see him in AA by the end of the year. From what I've read he is very likely to be a plus defender in CF, so if he can hit a bit he could be another option in the not too distant future. Just the fact that the Twins gave him a 40 man roster spot tells me they think of him pretty highly.

[stringer bell]

It's pretty obvious that we, the fan base, don't have a consensus on who to keep and who to discard. the beauty of it all is that they have all the pieces at this time. I think that a few months in that they may have to decide and they'll have more information to make a decision.

 

My sense is that Kirilloff could be an elite hitter and maybe Larnach. Rooker and Raley probably project lower, but Rooker could be among the top quartile power guy. Cave and Wade both had their moments (Cave with a much larger sample size).I don't think Cave will get past Rosario, but if he gets an extended opportunity, who knows? 

 

I think all of outfielders will get a chance to improve their stock. By the end of July both the fan base and FO will probably have much more informed opinions about all of them.

[Riverbrian]

If you're going to quote me, you could have at least replied so I knew you were calling me out on my Cave take.

 

You can look at OPS+ all you want, but Jake Cave isn't a better hitter than Rosario. He might be a better value in pure salary numbers, but that's where the comparison ends. The guy is a decent 4th outfielder, but he's average at everything and great at nothing.

 

I would 100% roll the dice on Larnach, Kirilloff, Rooker or even Blankenhorn over him as an everyday player, because it's likely he's reached his ceiling, which is fine for the role he fills, but not as a starter you can trot out there comfortably for a full season.

 

At least he's not Ryan LaMarre.

Yes I used your words but I didn't attribute you directly in order to not call you out specifically.

 

There are plenty of Cave ho hum whatever postings that will prevent you from sole ownership of the sentiment.

 

I know there are a ton of stats to choose from but I don't need them to make my point. OPS does just fine. Cave hasn't hurt us in the lineup, the drop off from Cave to his peers in the lineup has been almost insignificant and his 400 AB performance thus far is above MLB average.

 

You can get down into the grains of sand of metrics and show me that Rosario or anyone is better... I won't argue but it doesn't matter to me because the question is how much better and more importantly still... if Cave goes another 400 AB's with the same numbers. How does his value at 600K while still pre-arbation compare to Rosario (for example) at 10 to 15 million and one year before FA?

 

I appreciate your confidence in saying Cave has reached his ceiling after 400 AB's but forgive me if I wonder where that confidence comes from?

 

I'm saying that you better be right because being either correct or wrong is the same result. We will have less money to spend in the future. If we have less money... you'll need to be right.

 

Cost per matters... This is the Minnesota Twins.

[Minfidel]

 

Kepler, Buxton, and Kiriloff (and Lewis if he's moved to the OF) are the only 3 (4) guys listed here that have the chance to be above average ML outfielders. Larnach looks to be a solid average MLB starting corner OFer. Wade, Cave, Rooker, Raley are all decent players who can be nice 4th outfielders, but if you're relying on more than 1 of them to be an everyday outfielder for you you're not winning the way we all want the Twins to win. (I don't mention Rosario cuz I think it's a foregone conclusion that he isn't extended beyond next year)

 

The idea of trading any outfielder not named Kepler, Buxton, Kiriloff, or Lewis (maybe Larnach) and getting back "impact pitching" that can slot in at or above the Berrios/Odo level is a pipe dream. Nobody is giving up that kind of pitching for a combination of 4th OFs that can possibly hit, but not field. Could you get a Pineda type for them? Sure. Older guy who is good, not great, and slots in at your 3 or, preferably, 4 spot in your postseason rotation.

 

I don't know that I'd call the current situation a logjam outside of Kiriloff being currently blocked by Rosario. With the injuries that happen throughout the year (and Buxton's history alone) this isn't a logjam, it's needed depth. The hope is that Kiriloff is over his wrist injury from last year and comes out the gate mashing. At that point when one of your ML starters goes down you mix him in to get him some exposure. If it gets to playoff time you aren't relying on a mix of 4th OFers or a guy with no ML experience. If he pulls an Arraez and never lets go of the job Rosario becomes your 4th OF and LH bat off the bench. Or part of DH rotation if Cruz finally shows his age or is hurt himself.

 

If it's the bottom of the 9th and the tying run is on 3rd and winning run is on 2nd with 2 outs and a chance to go to the WS on the line I don't want the season coming down to Raley, Rooker, Wade, or Cave having to knock in those runs.

If it's the bottom of the 9th and the tying run is on 3rd and winning run is on 2nd with 2 outs and a chance to go to the WS on the line I don't want the season coming down to Raley, Rooker, Wade, or Cave IN THE OUTFIELD!

[the_brute_squad]

With Rosario nearing free agency in a couple of years I think his "downward" trend will change dramatically. He's aware of our "Rick Sofields" in the minor leagues and it only takes a bounce back year to increase that stock and cash in with a large contract. Keep in mind he still hit 30 HRs last year so there aren't many teams that would pass on that kind of talent.

[beckmt]

 

With Rosario nearing free agency in a couple of years I think his "downward" trend will change dramatically. He's aware of our "Rick Sofields" in the minor leagues and it only takes a bounce back year to increase that stock and cash in with a large contract. Keep in mind he still hit 30 HRs last year so there aren't many teams that would pass on that kind of talent.

There are not too many teams that will pay $12 million a year for his talent or even $10 million.  You are not going to get an impact starter for him, unless you include 1 - 2 of your impact possible minor league starters.  World has changed, good pitching rules and outfielders like Rosario, if he does not step it up,  are around (not quite at his level, but not close to $10 - $12 million a year).

Rosario would be too expensive at this time for about 1/2 the clubs, and the rest already have talent close or better than him in the major leagues (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Astros) just to name a few.