Are the Twins Ready for No Pineda, No Hill, No Impact Starter to Begin 2020?

[Taildragger8791]

Where do we keep getting the idea that early season games don't matter as much as summer and late season games? If the Twins drop 5-6 extra games the first two months while trying out a smattering of borderline MLB-ready pitchers and rehab projects, well that could be the difference between a comfortable division title win and a dogfight to make the playoffs. And there is no room for error if Berrios/Odorizzi are anything less than their best. We know Berrios can be an impact pitcher but he can also go in the tank for long stretches. Did we not learn anything about the importance of starting pitching from the latest playoff embarrassment?

 

Anyone who thinks they'll trade for a #3 or better starter mid-season is crazy. Every year people think the price will be more palatable next time (whether offseason or trade deadline or waiver wire) and when the time comes it's still always too rich for our blood.

[cardsfan]

And the Reds got Castellanos. So say goodbye to Trevor Bauer on the Twins for now.

Bauer gave up 40 earned runs his last 2 months with the Reds. Not sure why.

[bighat]

 

We have two all star starting pitchers.  Why are they not considered impact guys?  Both are plenty capable of throwing really good games.

 

The Twins are so damn lucky to have Berrios, and it's sad how many TD posters will just never accept the guy. La MaKina will go 15-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 200 strikeouts, and people here are going to keep blasting the guy and complaining about him. Odorizzi is going to have similar numbers and those same people will say that he's a "back end of the rotation guy".

 

To some, none of these guys are any good until they can win a playoff game against the Yankees. That's just how it's gonna be. The Twins do need to start working with these young guys to find the next Berrios very soon, because Jose's going to sign a 120 Million free agent deal with one of the big market teams as soon as his Twins deal runs out.

 

Here's hoping the Twins can develop their future #1 guy and in the first couple months of 2020. And here's hoping they don't fall too far behind Chicago or Cleveland while they're at it.

 

[h2oface]

"Every year, to survive the dog days of summer, teams end up having to find games from outside their planned five starters. So how many of those did the Twins need in 2019? Exactly 16 games. They came from Devin Smeltzer (6), Randy Dobnak (5), Lewis Thorpe (2), Kohl Stewart (2), and Cody Stashak (1). The good news for 2020 is that three of those five names are the first three in line to get starts again. They’ve been there."

 

The good news...... and the bad news.....

 

The bad news for 2020 is that three of those five names are the first three in line to get starts again.......

[dex8425]

 

Exactly. By my count, there's only 6-7 teams that are openly tanking for 2020 already:

 

Detroit, KC, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami, San Francisco, and maybe Seattle. Potential to throw in Colorado if they deal Arenado. I don't really know what arms you want to target on those teams, but the odds are either that they're not cheap, or they're not very good. Might as well wait until more teams enter the market and see if you can pick a crafty veteran guy that you like, especially assuming the scouting department has probably already looked at this info and determined there's really no upside to dealing with any of these teams for the available arms they have and what it would take to acquire.

Agreed on those teams. Colorado has Story for two more years and Arenado for at least two more years. They thought they'd be contending last year and they're not tanking this year. 

 

At the deadline, there might be a few more arms available who I would want, like Robbie Ray, Jon Gray, Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman or Mike Minor. I think the Rangers will be good or a least decent though. Not sure on the Reds. Not sure I want Chris Archer. 

[dex8425]

 

Bauer gave up 40 earned runs his last 2 months with the Reds. Not sure why.

Yeah, he was downright dreadful after he was dealt. I'd bet he returns to 220 innings of low 3 ERA ball in 2020 though. 

[Tomj14]

 

 

At the deadline, there might be a few more arms available who I would want, like Robbie Ray, Jon Gray, Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman or Mike Minor. I think the Rangers will be good or a least decent though. Not sure on the Reds. Not sure I want Chris Archer. 

So the pitchers available will be some of the pitchers that were available that the Twins didn't go get, and are 1 year older or closer to FA. I don't buy it and I hope I am wrong.
 

[dex8425]

 

So the pitchers available will be some of the pitchers that were available that the Twins didn't go get, and are 1 year older or closer to FA. I don't buy it and I hope I am wrong.
 

The price for these guys will be much lower than it was last year at the deadline though. All of them are half a year rentals except Jon Gray.

 

However, I also would bet the Twins DON'T get any of these guys. They will say that Rich Hill is their trade deadline impact starting pitching acquisition.  

[Dr. Beanpole]

 

Agreed on those teams. Colorado has Story for two more years and Arenado for at least two more years. They thought they'd be contending last year and they're not tanking this year. 

 

At the deadline, there might be a few more arms available who I would want, like Robbie Ray, Jon Gray, Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman or Mike Minor. I think the Rangers will be good or a least decent though. Not sure on the Reds. Not sure I want Chris Archer. 

I would want Chris Archer, I just don't want to give up anything to get him. He's a decent enough 3/4 in the rotation the Twins currently have, but not if the Pirates randomly want a haul for him. And seeing how he's one of the better available options right now, they probably aren't going to dump him for nothing. 

 

I like the names you threw out there though, there's a real possibility most of those guys are available and if the rotation proves to be a problem around the all star break I'd bet they won't hesitate to make a move to better the staff. Also wouldn't be surprised if they stand pat, especially if they're getting good outings from Pineda and Bailey and the young guys show some promise. There's enough depth there if Smeltzer, Dobnak, and Thorpe all pitch similar to last year and Graterol eventually joins them as a rotation piece.

[singlesoverwalks]

Just because Thorpe, Dobnak, and Smeltzer looked kind of good in a small sample in 2019 doesn't mean you should really count on them to fill two spaces for 2020. Rookie starters flame out all the time after scouts and hitters get familiar with them. I would be much more comfortable if Thorpe, Dobnak, and Smeltzer were backup options. The Twins are going for it, trying to compete for a World Series, and they have enough payroll space to add another good bet at starter. They should do that.

[singlesoverwalks]

We sat back on our lorales (?)

 

I'll say it. Laurels.

 

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/rest-on-your-laurels

[KirbyDome89]

 

It's not really that the cost will be more palatable at the deadline, there just might be more options available. If the Cubs aren't able to keep up with the suddenly-threatening Reds, the Cards, and the Brewers, they might be willing to ditch Lester or Hendricks or something. As of now, those guys are pretty much off the board, they're not interested in trading them. 

 

If the Twins wait until the deadline to acquire another arm, they're just hoping there's a better option out there. Robbie Ray might not even be available in a trade right now with the move the Diamondbacks made yesterday. I don't even know who they could go make a play for at this point, too many teams think they're competitive. 

That uncertainty about what might be available and how it stacks up against previous FA classes or trade deadlines only strengthens my point, no? There have been opportunities to add and management has consistently passed. Pitching was an issue when this FO took over 3+ years ago. It continues to be today, and the corner they've painted themselves into grows tighter every time the goal posts move. I think the price of deadline acquisitions is being downplayed. Bargains and "assigned value," aren't typically found in July, and so far we've seen no evidence that this FO is willing to move off of either. IMO there's a very real chance that this team enters the postseason with Berrios as their best arm. I hope I'm wrong.....

[Diesel]

The Twins have a very solid deep farm system that won’t be able to keep everybody (40 man is pretty full already). Find a big time trade and go for it!

[jimbo92107]

It all comes down to Twins management still thinking of themselves as a "small market" team. Working from within, I see some combo of Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe, Stewart, Stashak, plus maybe Gonzo getting early season tryouts for the fourth and fifth spots. Of these guys, my favorites are Dobnak and Stashak. Smeltz intrigues, but he will always be a tightrope walker. 

 

Twins have had some luck with TJ specials, so Taijaun Walker sounds plausible. Otherwise we might also see some innings from Alcala and even Balasovic. 

 

I have no problems with these experiments. If the Twins really have some innovative pitching coaches, this is exactly when those investments should start paying off. Fernando Romero would be a good test case. If they can teach him consistent mechanics, they've got a stud horse. If not, they have a low-leverage relief pitcher. Same with Thorpe and Alcala.

 

Activate the Bat Signal for Wes Johnson...

[howieramone2]

Virtually every team has had pitching issues the last 3+ years and this trend shows no signs of going away. I never thought I'd live to see dumpster diving become fashionable. Being ranked the 4th best team by MLB.com, means the corner we've painted ourselves into is huge.

[jud6312]

 

It all comes down to Twins management still thinking of themselves as a "small market" team. Working from within, I see some combo of Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe, Stewart, Stashak, plus maybe Gonzo getting early season tryouts for the fourth and fifth spots. Of these guys, my favorites are Dobnak and Stashak. Smeltz intrigues, but he will always be a tightrope walker. 

 

Twins have had some luck with TJ specials, so Taijaun Walker sounds plausible. Otherwise we might also see some innings from Alcala and even Balasovic. 

 

I have no problems with these experiments. If the Twins really have some innovative pitching coaches, this is exactly when those investments should start paying off. Fernando Romero would be a good test case. If they can teach him consistent mechanics, they've got a stud horse. If not, they have a low-leverage relief pitcher. Same with Thorpe and Alcala.

 

Activate the Bat Signal for Wes Johnson...

 

Well, two of the first six guys you named are with different organizations now.

[Darius]

I’m totally fine with starting the season with the staff we have now.

 

But, something has to be done to address via trade or it’ll be a short postseason (assuming they make it, which is certainly no sure thing).

 

Enter Rich Hill and the problem he may cause. I can see a scenario in which the rotation is unspectacularly solid going into July and Hill’s recovery looks great. The front office elects not to target a starter via trade. Rich Hill proceeds to get injured again.

 

It’s my only concern right now after getting the Bringer of Rain.

[Doctor Gast]

 

I don't know if they sat back on their laurels but is a point well taken.    Lynn, Odo Reed,  and Morrison were great signings.   You can't control injuries but you also can't control guys playing well.     2018 was more talented than 2017 but played way worse.   2019 was only slightly better than 2018 but played way better.    Its not like Musial who used to smile all ST because he knew he would hit .350.   We don't have those guys.   There is a world of difference between Kepler 2018 and Kepler 2019.    People ask how you can keep the same team and expect to be better.   The answer if by playing better. 

"Sat back on their laurels" isn`t the right expression but some weren`t ready to play. They were out of shape, nonchalant, came late to ST disgruntle because they didn`t get what they wanted out of FA, afraid of getting hurt etc. But the biggest difference from 2017 & 2018 was Tori Hunter, he was a great club house influence

[Channing1964]

 

without really reading all the comments i think its naive to assume we will be all right with two rotation spots filled by AAAA guys. Some non roster invitee will surely he counted on to hold down the #4 spot. Most likely we won't need a fifth starter more than a couple times. I just hope Bailey can at least get the job done and Pineda reports in good shape. The first two months of that schedule looks brutal.

[David HK]

No Pineda, No Hill, No Impact Starter?

 

No.