Projected Minnesota Twins 2020 Statistical Leaders Per ZiPS

[Matthew Taylor]

Now, more than ever before, baseball fans have all of the numbers in the world at their fingertips in order to reflect on what has happened in the past as well as project what will happen in the future. Let’s discuss what the projections say about the Minnesota Twins statistical leaders in 2020.Earlier this week Fangraphs released their annual ZiPS projections for the Minnesota Twins for the 2020 season. ZiPS is a projection system developed by Dan Szymborski which uses growth and decline curves determined by age and past performance to project how a given player will perform the following season. ZiPS is widely regarded as being one of the most accurate projection systems we have in baseball.

 

Download attachment: 2020 zips.png

 

Above you can see the fWAR totals for each Minnesota Twins player in 2020 as projected by ZiPS. As you can see, ZiPS projects Josh Donaldson to lead all Twins position players in 2020 with 4.3 fWAR and José Berríos to lead all pitchers with 3.2 fWAR.

 

Now let’s see how ZiPS projects the statistical leaders for the Twins in 2020.

 

Batting Average:

Luis Arráez | .309

 

Arráez was a revelation for the Minnesota Twins in 2020, joining the club in 2019 at the age of 22 and hitting .334 in 92 games. Regression has to be in order for Venezuelan in 2020 after such an incredible start to his career, right? ZiPS doesn’t seem to think so. According to their projection system, Arráez still figures to be a hitting machine, leading the team in batting average.

 

On-base Percentage:

Josh Donaldson | .373

 

Josh Donaldson does a lot of things well, but one of his best traits is his ability to get on base. In 2019, Josh Donaldson finished in the top-20 in major league baseball with a .379 on-base percentage thanks to his taking of 100 walks. ZiPS projects Donaldson to do much of the same in 2020, which lends itself well to the heart of the Minnesota Twins batting order being able to knock in lots of runs.

 

Home Runs:

Miguel Sanó | 35

 

From August 1 through the end of the 2019 season, Miguel Sanó led the Minnesota Twins with 16 home huns. ZiPS projects Sanó to pick up where he left off and lead the Twins in bombas for the 2020 season with 35. After signing a four-year extension this winter, leading the team in home runs in 2020 would certainly make that deal look like more of a bargain than it already does.

 

ERA (Starter):

Rich Hill | 3.59

 

While Rich Hill won’t join the Minnesota Twins until June, at best, ZiPS projects that he will make a huge impact to the team when he does, leading the team with a 3.59 ERA. ZiPS relies a lot on past performance in making their projections, so this projection isn’t much of a surprise seeing as how Hill hasn’t finished a season with an ERA above 3.70 since 2013.

 

ERA (Reliever):

Taylor Rogers | 3.09

 

Taylor Rogers was undoubtedly the Minnesota Twins best relief pitcher in 2019, and ZiPS projects more of the same in 2020 with him leading all relievers on the team next year with a 3.09 ERA. While the Minnesota Twins bullpen is as deep of a bullpen as you can find in baseball, Rogers is what makes the group go. If he can continue to contribute as he has the past couple of years, great things should be in store for the Twins’ relief corps in 2020.

 

Strikeouts:

Jose Berríos | 193

 

José Berríos set a career high and led the Minnesota Twins with 195 strikeouts in 2019. ZiPS projects Berríos to have another strikeout-filled year in 2020 with 193 punch outs. While ZiPS is projecting his ERA to balloon to a 4.17 next year, if he can put up 193 strikeouts next year, he has Cy Young potential heading into the 2020 season.

 

What do you think of the ZiPS projections discussed above? Do you think Szymborski did a good job predicting who will be the Twins’ statistical leaders in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation.

 

RIP Kobe Bryant

 

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[mikelink45]

These are fun, but of course they mean nothing.  I look forward to seeing what really happens

 

[ashbury]

An old principle applies: "When in doubt, predict that the present trend will continue."

 

ZIPS is good at removing outlier seasons, and factoring in potential improvement (for young'uns) or decline (for geezers). But still, every season contains surprises, and the odds for each of these predicted names has to be under 50/50. When you expect the unexpected, these are the expectations that it makes sense to violate.

[LylesCrocodiles]

“José Berríos set a career high and led the Minnesota Twins with 195 strikeouts in 2019. ZiPS projects Berríos to have another strikeout-filled year in 2020 with 193 punch outs. While ZiPS is projecting his ERA to balloon to a 4.17 next year, if he can put up 193 strikeouts next year, he has Cy Young potential heading into the 2020 season.“

 

If Berrios is top 5 in cy young voting this team will have a good shot of winning it all. That would mean he is becoming a true ace. I’m not sure he has it in him. But I’m rooting for him

[rdehring]

Arraez "Regression has to be in order for the Venezuelan in 2020."  Why?  With experience, off season prep, and coaching, why can't he be better?

 

Didn't Sano hit almost 35 home runs last year in 2/3 of the season?  If they are assuming the ball will be less 'juiced', Sano is the player it should effect the least.  If I recall many/most of his bombas were way, way beyond the fence.

 

 

[joefish]

I used to have a stuffed toy monkey. Zip was his name.

[Thegrin]

Zips. Schnips. Lets just play the games and find out.  

[jmlease1]

oh, ZiPS. The obsession with regression makes it such a frustrating prediction system.

 

This has Kepler, Garver, and Polanco all predicted to be significantly worse in 2020, by at least 1 fWAR per player. none of these guys have even hit 30 yet. regression's a thing, but all of them? Buxton only misses this grouping because they have him at -0.7 fWAR from last year...in 25% more PAs.

 

Same for Donaldson & Cruz: drops in fWAR of at least 1.

 

Arraez doesn't improve so much as he regresses and plays more.

 

Now, they do this to every team so it can be useful in looking at team-by-team comps in projections, but otherwise ZiPS is probably going to drive every twins fans nuts if you look at it too much in isolation.