Ranking the Remaining Free Agent Starters

[Darius]

Walker, Cashner, and Salazar are the only ones I’m even remotely interested in. There’s some legitimate upside there that could be worth a gamble.

 

I’m really warming up to the idea of Cashner as a back-end guy instead of one of the rookies. He’s been durable. He’s got pretty good stuff. He seems to have pitched well when he’s not in those slow pitch softball parks in the AL East. I’d be fine with Cashner on a 1 year deal to round out free agency.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I'd go with the Collin McHugh suggestion...Not sure why he isn't on this list.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mchugco01.shtml

Does any team realistically view him a starter anymore? 85 of his 93 appearances over the past 2 years have come in relief. Having said that, it's a good thought given his age and history of starting make him a worthy candidate to discuss.

[Rosterman]

The Twins won't need five starters for the entire run of the Pineda suspension. Which will also be fruitful, they will have that ninth arm in the bullpen. 

[MMMordabito]

 

The Twins won't need five starters for the entire run of the Pineda suspension. Which will also be fruitful, they will have that ninth arm in the bullpen. 

 

They'll need that fifth guy early in the season though.  @ Seattle and then probably vs. Oakland, if they want the top three to go vs. Cleveland.  

[howeda7]

 

With the organizational depth in OF, cant help but come back to Larnach and what kind of SP a package around him would bring.

Larnach, Duran and Jake Cave to the Marlins for Alcantara.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Is ick or ish an appropriate response here?

[TwinsFan268]

I've heard of 1 of these pitchers-yeah, let's face it, the free agent market is pretty much down to nothing. If the Twins still want to acquire pitchers, they should do it through trade and not through free agency.

[Minny505]

I love this exercise, but I would really prefer to see FIP, DRA, SIERRA, or some other metric than ERA to state effectiveness over the last 2-3 years. I had to go to Fangraphs to look up their numbers to get any true gauge. 

And having done that, Salazar would be my pick with a bullet. We only need him to make eight starts. If he is healthy, he is a far better option than any of Thorpe/Dobnak/Smeltzer. And if he goes down on May 10th, oh well. He more or less bridged the gap. Anything more than that is a bonus.

 

Walker would be a solid pickup as well. I would rather have Salazar because of the upside, but he would do. 

 

I think Dobnak & Thorpe are on the same level or better than the rest of the list. I'm not opposed to bringing on any of the rest, but more as AAA depth for the season, with the understanding that they are the 6th or 8th guy on the depth chart in April.

 

 

[Minny505]

 

Larnach, Duran and Jake Cave to the Marlins for Alcantara.

I don't quite understand the Alcantara love. He has not been a strikeout pitcher since A ball and has a K:BB ratio worse than 2:1. He seems kind of like a modern era version of Nick Blackburn.

 

I'm not saying he is worthless. Seems like a good innings eater that has a chance to top 2.5 fWAR a few seasons in his career, but just as likely to crash & (Black)burn. He's definitely not worth 2 of our top 6 prospects (arguably our 2 best prospects after Lewis) plus a ML capable OF.

 

That's how GMs get blacklisted from running a team, a la Dave Stewart.

 

How about Cave & Matt Canterino or Cave & Cole Sands (though I hate to trade someone with a badass name like that) or Cave & Edwar Colina or Cave & Maciel Urbina? That's more in the range he is worth. I could be talked into Thorpe if they throw in a lottery ticket.

[jorgenswest]

 

I don't quite understand the Alcantara love. He has not been a strikeout pitcher since A ball and has a K:BB ratio worse than 2:1. He seems kind of like a modern era version of Nick Blackburn.

 

I'm not saying he is worthless. Seems like a good innings eater that has a chance to top 2.5 fWAR a few seasons in his career, but just as likely to crash & (Black)burn. He's definitely not worth 2 of our top 6 prospects (arguably our 2 best prospects after Lewis) plus a ML capable OF.

 

That's how GMs get blacklisted from running a team, a la Dave Stewart.

 

How about Cave & Matt Canterino or Cave & Cole Sands (though I hate to trade someone with a  name like that) or Cave & Edwar Colina or Cave & Maciel Urbina? That's more in the range he is worth. I could be talked into Thorpe if they throw in a lottery ticket.

 

Alcantara career strike out major league rate is 18.7%. Nick Blackburn 10.9%. Alcantara at 23 started 32 games in the majors. Blackburn at 23 was in the minors (mostly hi A) with a 14% strike out rate. Alcantara's average major league fastball 95.7 vs Blackburn 90.6. Swing and miss rate 11.0% to 5.3%.

 

It is Alcantara's age, stuff and the fact that he faced higher levels of competition at a young age that foreshadows upside in his future. Alcantara is a valuable asset and it will take a high level prospect. I don't think it takes both Larnach and Duran to win the deal. I think the Twins can get a good pitcher in return for Larnach whether it is an high upside guy with control like Alcantara or a guy for this year like Robbie Ray.

[ChiefsKid]

Yuck.

 

But, I would imagine Walker (and honestly anybody from this list with any upside) is just gonna wait it out for a guaranteed MLB contract. No sense in signing an invite deal now, they could probably get that a week before pitchers and catchers report just about anywhere.

[howieramone2]

Duran is most likely untouchable. Don't believe they will move a starter over A ball.

[Danchat]

 

This is really complete, thanks for doing the research. I added this in another thread, but I'm intrigued by Salazar and Walker.

 

Would definitely take a flier for a ST invite, 1mil if they make the team for either or both of them. Exact deal that Felix got from the Braves. 

 

Don't start the clock on Balazovic yet. 

Balazovic hasn't thrown an inning above A+ yet, they're not going to start his clock too early. I would fully expect a name here to get added to the AAA rotation in case they're needed.

[Minny505]

 

Alcantara career strike out major league rate is 18.7%. Nick Blackburn 10.9%. Alcantara at 23 started 32 games in the majors. Blackburn at 23 was in the minors (mostly hi A) with a 14% strike out rate. Alcantara's average major league fastball 95.7 vs Blackburn 90.6. Swing and miss rate 11.0% to 5.3%.

 

It is Alcantara's age, stuff and the fact that he faced higher levels of competition at a young age that foreshadows upside in his future. Alcantara is a valuable asset and it will take a high level prospect. I don't think it takes both Larnach and Duran to win the deal. I think the Twins can get a good pitcher in return for Larnach whether it is an high upside guy with control like Alcantara or a guy for this year like Robbie Ray.

 

I still hold to a modern day version of Blackburn. It's hard because velo and K% are just so much higher today than 15 years ago.

That said, let's use a modern comp. Smeltzer and Alcantara are literally the same age. If they were fraternal twins, one would claim being older by ten minutes.

 

Take a look at their track records. Smeltzer has been so, so, so, so, so much better at every level in the minors and in The Show. Better K%, much better BB%, better FIP, ERA, etc. The two places Alcantara has him beat is velo (but Romero and every other pitcher in the Twins system that will never make it to the majors has Smeltzer beat there too) and HR/9.

 

If there was a prop bet of which pitcher will perform better at the MLB level over the next six seasons, I would take Smeltzer. If we based it on WAR, I'd probably take Alcantara, but only because he might be the best pitcher on a bad MLB team where Smeltzer is currently the 8th best MLB ready pitcher on his team. If we based it on WAR per IP, I'll take Smeltzer.

Smeltzer is still rookie eligible and will be ranked somewhere abound the 17th best prospect in the system, give or take a few spots based on your publication of choice. Alcantara, if still rookie eligible, would likely be somewhere around the same 15-20 rank.

 

Alcantara has higher upside with that velo, but he has never looked like he has figured out to harness it effectively, a la Fernando Romero. Actually, Romero did at least look like he had it figured out, then lost it. Maybe Alcantara still will, at which point I'll eat crow.

 

But the view from the cloudy mountaintop of prospect projection looks like the better pitcher that will have the better MLB career is Smeltzer and he may not crack 50 innings for the Twins in 2020. 

I doubt any of us would opt to trade a high end prospect for Devin Smeltzer. It doesn't make sense. That's essentially who you are trading for in Alcantara, they just get there in different ways.

Even offering Jake Cave & Devin Smeltzer for Alcantara seems like a bit of an overpay after digging thru more numbers.

[Mr. Brooks]

I still hold to a modern day version of Blackburn. It's hard because velo and K% are just so much higher today than 15 years ago.

 

That said, let's use a modern comp. Smeltzer and Alcantara are literally the same age. If they were fraternal twins, one would claim being older by ten minutes.

 

Take a look at their track records. Smeltzer has been so, so, so, so, so much better at every level in the minors and in The Show. Better K%, much better BB%, better FIP, ERA, etc. The two places Alcantara has him beat is velo (but Romero and every other pitcher in the Twins system that will never make it to the majors has Smeltzer beat there too) and HR/9.

 

If there was a prop bet of which pitcher will perform better at the MLB level over the next six seasons, I would take Smeltzer. If we based it on WAR, I'd probably take Alcantara, but only because he might be the best pitcher on a bad MLB team where Smeltzer is currently the 8th best MLB ready pitcher on his team. If we based it on WAR per IP, I'll take Smeltzer.

 

Smeltzer is still rookie eligible and will be ranked somewhere abound the 17th best prospect in the system, give or take a few spots based on your publication of choice. Alcantara, if still rookie eligible, would likely be somewhere around the same 15-20 rank.

 

Alcantara has higher upside with that velo, but he has never looked like he has figured out to harness it effectively, a la Fernando Romero. Actually, Romero did at least look like he had it figured out, then lost it. Maybe Alcantara still will, at which point I'll eat crow.

 

But the view from the cloudy mountaintop of prospect projection looks like the better pitcher that will have the better MLB career is Smeltzer and he may not crack 50 innings for the Twins in 2020.

 

I doubt any of us would opt to trade a high end prospect for Devin Smeltzer. It doesn't make sense. That's essentially who you are trading for in Alcantara, they just get there in different ways.

 

Even offering Jake Cave & Devin Smeltzer for Alcantara seems like a bit of an overpay after digging thru more numbers.

BP had Alcantara #70 overall coming into his rookie season.

I'd love to see the stacked system that would have him in the 15-20 range.

[Doctor Wu]

Just go out and sign at least one of these guys and hope for a miracle, or something akin to an Anibal Sanchez-like career resurgence!

[Cody Pirkl]

 

I'm really high on Sandy Alcantara.  Any idea's on a package to get him?  Also, does anybody consider him an "impact" pitcher, or am I crazy??

He's like Zack Wheeler light in the sense that we'd be paying for the potential. He's a building block for the Marlins future and would cost a lot to pry away for a guy that put up 2.3 fWAR last year and greatly outperformed his peripherals. He probably costs more than a guy like Matt Boyd in my opinion, who has stronger indicators with the Ks he puts up and has already been more valuable. I bet they'd be asking about someone in our top 5-6 prospects just for a base piece for a trade.

[howieramone2]

Why not blow them away, by offering board favorites Trevor May and The Turtle?

[TopGunn#22]

Salazar is the name that intrigues me the most.  Him and/or Walker but only on minor league deals with something like a May 1st opt out.  If Salazar could ever stay healthy...OH BOY.  Back in his best days with the Indians his stuff was filty.  

[ChrisKnutson]

Instead of overpaying for Alcantara (who I’m a fan of by the way), I believe the FO is much more likely to pursue a potential bargain like Nick Pivetta who was predicted by many last year to break out. Perhaps all he needs is a different approach with the help of Wes and change of scenery.

 

With hopes of winning the NL East, the Phillies have fallen short of the WC two years in a row meaning it’s unlikely they’re gonna want to waste any more time on tapping into Pivetta’s uncertain potential after bringing in Gregorius, Wheeler, and Girardi along with everyone else that they brought in last offseason. Simply put, I believe there is a sense of urgency in Philly right now and instead of rolling with Pivetta perhaps they could turn him into more pitching depth in form of Littell, Dobnak, and Harper. Furthermore, I also suspect the Phillies FO might also be very interested in Astudillo’s bat and versatility as Realmuto’s backup instead of Knapp; who could also be apart of the deal.