3 Twins Prospects Impacted By Josh Donaldson's Signing

[Riverbrian]

 

Ok, but even 10 guys rotating 9 spots leaves a couple of backups that aren't playing every day.
That's my only argument is that Riverbrian tells me if a guy is likely a backup then just cut him now. That tells me he wants 13 guys all playing equal time.

 

Let's try it this way. Forget Equal Time... I only used Equal time as a reference point to show what is possible. 

 

Let's use Jake Cave for an example. 

 

Last year Jake Cave had 228 AB's and he produced .805 OPS

Last Year Eddie Rosario had 590 AB's and he produced .800 OPS

 

Both are above average major league numbers. 

 

Why should Eddie Rosario be the designated a starter over Jake Cave?

 

I'm not knocking Rosario, I love Eddie and wouldn't do such a thing. I am not advocating benching Rosario. 

 

What I'm doing? I'm stating that by designating one as the starter and the other as a backup, you are basically throwing away Jake Cave.  Jake Cave will not increase in value and you are limiting your organization to only Eddie gaining in value. 

 

Let's say both Rosario and Cave both have around 500 AB's (This isn't an equal time argument) and let's say they keep the same OPS as last year. .805 for Cave and .800 for Rosario. 

 

In that scenario... who has more trade value? Rosario with 2 years of control at Arbitration prices or Cave with 5 years of control at league minimum prices? 

 

If Cave is worked into the lineup like his performance suggests that he should. Maybe next time they call the Marlins and try to trade him for a starting pitcher, maybe the Marlins will actually listen. If Cave remains designated as the backup... the Marlins will not listen. 

 

Or even more realistically... if Cave can produce as well or better than Rosario at 600K compared to Rosario at 7.75M, and if Rooker (for example) is given playing time and producing .800 OPS or better as well.. the Twins have two roster spots at 600K instead of Rosario at 7.75M and whoever else at 10M. That 17 million saved can then be re-invested into someone who will produce OPS over 1,000 in the off-season. If you keep throwing away the Cave's or Rooker's of the world... you will fill your roster with Arb Eligible Contracts and have no budget left. You must produce 600K talent and you can only do so by not designating Blankenhorn as utility or bench before he even hits the stage. 

 

I am saying that anybody on the roster that the manager doesn't trust to play, any player who joins the 26 man roster and becomes bench glue with the tag of backup, utility or someone you have to limit playing time for due to talent deficiency, that you should take them off the roster and find someone who doesn't have that pre-determined designation or it's a waste of valuable roster space for today and for the future. 

 

In the context of this article. "3 Twins Prospects impacted by the Josh Donaldson signing". Specifically listing, Rooker, Kiriloff and Larnach. I'm saying that Josh Donaldson better not impact them. If they are ready... Donaldson better not be in the way. I'm not advocating playing Rooker with .600 OPS so Rosario with a .800 OPS sits. I am advocating the exact opposite. 

 

I'm often surprised why and how often this idea I bring up frequently gets challenged but I've come to realize that the Twins organization hasn't thought this way for decades until last year so how can anyone really come to grips with it, if all they see is Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor old school type execution.

 

Last year was the first year that the Twins made an effort to get everyone into the lineup and it worked quite well.

 

Let's do it again... and if they do it again. Rooker, Larnach and Kiriloff won't have to worry about the Josh Donaldson high hurdle to clear because there is plenty of playing time and nobody should be glued to the bench. Unless you are not performing... if you are not performing. Then YES... play them less. 

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Let's try it this way. Forget Equal Time... I only used Equal time as a reference point to show what is possible.

 

Let's use Jake Cave for an example.

 

Last year Jake Cave had 228 AB's and he produced .805 OPS

Last Year Eddie Rosario had 590 AB's and he produced .800 OPS

 

Both are above average major league numbers.

 

Why should Eddie Rosario be the designated a starter over Jake Cave?

 

I'm not knocking Rosario, I love Eddie and wouldn't do such a thing. I am not advocating benching Rosario.

 

What I'm doing? I'm stating that by designating one as the starter and the other as a backup, you are basically throwing away Jake Cave. Jake Cave will not increase in value and you are limiting your organization to only Eddie gaining in value.

 

Let's say both Rosario and Cave both have around 500 AB's (This isn't an equal time argument) and let's say they keep the same OPS as last year. .805 for Cave and .800 for Rosario.

 

In that scenario... who has more trade value? Rosario with 2 years of control at Arbitration prices or Cave with 5 years of control at league minimum prices?

 

If Cave is worked into the lineup like his performance suggests that he should. Maybe next time they call the Marlins and try to trade him for a starting pitcher, maybe the Marlins will actually listen. If Cave remains designated as the backup... the Marlins will not listen.

 

Or even more realistically... if Cave can produce as well or better than Rosario at 600K compared to Rosario at 7.75M, and if Rooker (for example) is given playing time and producing .800 OPS or better as well.. the Twins have two roster spots at 600K instead of Rosario at 7.75M and whoever else at 10M. That 17 million saved can then be re-invested into someone who will produce OPS over 1,000 in the off-season. If you keep throwing away the Cave's or Rooker's of the world... you will fill your roster with Arb Eligible Contracts and have no budget left. You must produce 600K talent and you can only do so by not designating Blankenhorn as utility or bench before he even hits the stage.

 

I am saying that anybody on the roster that the manager doesn't trust to play, any player who joins the 26 man roster and becomes bench glue with the tag of backup, utility or someone you have to limit playing time for due to talent deficiency, that you should take them off the roster and find someone who doesn't have that pre-determined designation or it's a waste of valuable roster space for today and for the future.

 

In the context of this article. "3 Twins Prospects impacted by the Josh Donaldson signing". Specifically listing, Rooker, Kiriloff and Larnach. I'm saying that Josh Donaldson better not impact them. If they are ready... Donaldson better not be in the way. I'm not advocating playing Rooker with .600 OPS so Rosario with a .800 OPS sits. I am advocating the exact opposite.

 

I'm often surprised why and how often this idea I bring up frequently gets challenged but I've come to realize that the Twins organization hasn't thought this way for decades until last year so how can anyone really come to grips with it, if all they see is Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor old school type execution.

 

Last year was the first year that the Twins made an effort to get everyone into the lineup and it worked quite well.

 

Let's do it again... and if they do it again. Rooker, Larnach and Kiriloff won't have to worry about the Josh Donaldson high hurdle to clear because there is plenty of playing time and nobody should be glued to the bench. Unless you are not performing... if you are not performing. Then YES... play them less.

But that's not true.

If Jake Cave continues to perform, he'll have value.

In fact he already does.

 

Just because Jake Cave has performed well enough to be capable of being a starting caliber player if needed, doesn't mean that every "bench" player is going to.

 

It's not realistic to think you are going to have 4 of those guys on your bench.

 

Adrianza is a good example of my argument. He's a quality backup/ utility infielder. That has value. He's not good enough to be a starting SS.

Is your argument that the Twins should just cut Adrianza now? Or is it that giving him 600 plate appearances is suddenly going to transform him into a starting caliber SS?

Because I don't agree with either of those arguments.

 

And the role the team views a player in has very little impact on their trade value.

Teams are doing their own independent evaluations. The Marlins aren't sitting there going, "all of our data says he can be a capable starting OF'er, but he's a backup on the Twins so I guess he has no value."

[dex8425]

I've mentioned before on other posts ( I think Aaron Gleeman has on the podcast too) that Cave and Rosario have very similar trade value. Cave is cheaper and has more years of control. Their ops was virtually identical last year because Cave walks (a lot) more. 

[Riverbrian]

But that's not true.

If Jake Cave continues to perform, he'll have value.

In fact he already does.

 

Just because Jake Cave has performed well enough to be capable of being a starting caliber player if needed, doesn't mean that every "bench" player is going to.

 

It's not realistic to think you are going to have 4 of those guys on your bench.

 

Adrianza is a good example of my argument. He's a quality backup/ utility infielder. That has value. He's not good enough to be a starting SS.

Is your argument that the Twins should just cut Adrianza now? Or is it that giving him 600 plate appearances is suddenly going to transform him into a starting caliber SS?

Because I don't agree with either of those arguments.

 

And the role the team views a player in has very little impact on their trade value.

Teams are doing their own independent evaluations. The Marlins aren't sitting there going, "all of our data says he can be a capable starting OF'er, but he's a backup on the Twins so I guess he has no value."

Adrianza had an OPS of ,765. Paul Dejong had an OPS of .762

Nick Ahmed, Dansby Swanson, Jean Segura, Willie Adames all had lower OPS.

 

I don't agree that Adrianza is a backup.

[stringer bell]

Back to the OP--Counting Raley, the Twins have four corner outfielders who look close to major league ready. All four may also be groomed to play first base, but that hasn't been their position up to now. All four of the players are bat-first and three of them hit left handed. To me, there is a lot of redundancy there, especially when the Twins have two established left handed hitting corner outfielders, along with Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade Jr.

 

To me, the Twins need to prioritize who they are going to stick with and who they can stand to lose and include those guys in trades. Next year probably will feature a real roster issue with high potential, but unproven corner outfielders. It is best to be proactive and deal with the problem early rather than late. All four will have a chance to put themselves in line for a promotion this year. May the most qualified win!

[Dman]

 

 

 

 

Changed it up a bit.

Things COULD definitely GET crowded in the outfield no question about it.

 

As of right now, it is not crowded at all, it is Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Cave and Wade and a bunch of potential. I would not call that crowded. An injury to one of the main 3, Cave starting out slow again and potential not really ready and crow is the furthest thing from reality. (Lets hope it gets real crowded in a hurry)

 

 

Yes that is very true.  No one has proven they need to be added yet and we have all year this year to assess value before the outfield could be over crowded and tougher decisions need to be made,  Just jumping the gun a little there because I feel over confident that Rooker and Kirrilloff will need to be added and we can't keep all those left fielder\1st basemen on the 40 man.  

 

I am still bullish on Rosario too and think that if he performs just a little better this year the Twins will keep him next year as well.  We'll have to wait and see what happens.  Personally I think Wade and Raley are the ones that need to really perform to keep their 40 man spots.  It is gonna be a big year for the boys on the farm.  Perform well or get sent packing.

[Mr. Brooks]

Adrianza had an OPS of ,765. Paul Dejong had an OPS of .762

Nick Ahmed, Dansby Swanson, Jean Segura, Willie Adames all had lower OPS.

 

I don't agree that Adrianza is a backup.

What was his OPS the previous 5 seasons?

Which is more likely:

Adrianza at age 30 suddenly became a vastly better hitter than ever before?

Or he had a career year in a relatively small sample size?

 

I'm not saying it's impossible that he suddenly figured something out. But I think it's far more likely that he's a .680 OPS guy that got hot for a few weeks last year.

 

And even if his 2019 hitting is legit, that's still a bottom of the league starting SS.

[jorgenswest]

Moderators you may need to delete as I am taking this from prospects and Donaldson to the equal playing time discussion but I can't start a new discussion in this forum

 

On the question...

 

Why should Eddie Rosario be the designated a starter over Jake Cave?

 

Eddie is a better hitter. Using OPS in one season to project the next season doesn't correlate nearly as high as some other measures. One in particular is BP's DRC+. In this measure Cave and Rosario are not in the same realm. Eddie was 109 (112 last year) and Cave 89 (93 last year). 

 

The Twins need to plan in rest but in every match up the staff (on field and analytic) must answer the question who is more likely to be successful today. I think in most match ups the answer is going to be Rosario over Cave.

[Riverbrian]

 

What was his OPS the previous 5 seasons?
Which is more likely:
Adrianza at age 30 suddenly became a vastly better hitter than ever before?
Or he had a career year in a relatively small sample size?

I'm not saying it's impossible that he suddenly figured something out. But I think it's far more likely that he's a .680 OPS guy that got hot for a few weeks last year.

And even if his 2019 hitting is legit, that's still a bottom of the league starting SS.

 

Disclaimer: It wasn't my intention to turn this into an Adrianza discussion so as I continue on... I'll just remind the viewers that this isn't really about Adrianza, it's part of a larger point that comes from the article title "3 Twins Prospects Impacted By Josh Donaldson's Signing".

 

Which is more likely:
Adrianza at age 30 suddenly became a vastly better hitter than ever before?
Or he had a career year in a relatively small sample size?

 

I don't know and I'm not going to guess either. 

There is only one way to find out.

 

The only thing I know for sure is this: If the front office agrees with you and they believe that it's a career year and don't give him playing time because of this pre-designation. They will make themselves be right.

 

At which point, Adrianza will not increase in value at age 30 so it's a waste of precious roster space, he won't play enough to help the team win in 2020 and therefore is a waste of precious roster space and they will end up playing Adrianza anyway when injuries occur, even if they agree with you and assume that he is a less talented player. So... they are committing to rostering a less talented player. If he is wasting roster space, you might as well cut him right now and call up Rooker, Kiriloff or Larnach and give the roster space to someone who will play and increase in value in the process.  Better for today and the future.  

 

I'm not saying it's impossible that he suddenly figured something out.

 

You agree with me... This is my point. 

 

But I think it's far more likely that he's a .680 OPS guy that got hot for a few weeks last year.

 

No offense intended but I don't trust you, I also don't trust myself in these matters and I don't trust the front office either, . I only trust the player to either succeed or fail. Once either of those two things happen, guessing is no longer required. 

 

Tying this all together with the OP "3 Twins Prospects Impacted By Josh Donaldson's Signing".

 

Donaldson will only impact them if the Twins drop what they were doing in 2019 and go back to the traditional old school, Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor and Ron Gardenhire method of we got our 9 guys, that's all we need, let's hope we were right and extend our days of darkness longer than we should be in the dark. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Moderators you may need to delete as I am taking this from prospects and Donaldson to the equal playing time discussion but I can't start a new discussion in this forum

 

On the question...

 

 

Eddie is a better hitter. Using OPS in one season to project the next season doesn't correlate nearly as high as some other measures. One in particular is BP's DRC+. In this measure Cave and Rosario are not in the same realm. Eddie was 109 (112 last year) and Cave 89 (93 last year). 

 

The Twins need to plan in rest but in every match up the staff (on field and analytic) must answer the question who is more likely to be successful today. I think in most match ups the answer is going to be Rosario over Cave.

It's OK.. It fits into the larger point and I want to be clear that I'm only using Rosario and Cave as an example to fit into the larger point, that there is no reason for Rooker, Kiriloff or Larnach to be "Impacted" by the Donaldson signing.

 

"You say Rosario is the better player... OK... I won't disagree or argue that assessment. But, you will kill Cave with that assessment and I do know this. 

 

Jake Cave has 481 career AB's.

Rosario has 2451 career AB's.

 

You better be right. 

 

I don't know a lot about Baseball Prospectus's new DRC+ stat. I'm not dismissing it, but I'd like to play with the formula (whatever it is) before I pass any judgement on the stat.

 

 

[USAFChief]

Disclaimer: It wasn't my intention to turn this into an Adrianza discussion so as I continue on... I'll just remind the viewers that this isn't really about Adrianza, it's part of a larger point that comes from the article title "3 Twins Prospects Impacted By Josh Donaldson's Signing".

 

Which is more likely:

Adrianza at age 30 suddenly became a vastly better hitter than ever before?

Or he had a career year in a relatively small sample size?

 

I don't know and I'm not going to guess either.

There is only one way to find out.

 

The only thing I know for sure is this: If the front office agrees with you and they believe that it's a career year and don't give him playing time because of this pre-designation. They will make themselves be right.

 

At which point, Adrianza will not increase in value at age 30 so it's a waste of precious roster space, he won't play enough to help the team win in 2020 and therefore is a waste of precious roster space and they will end up playing Adrianza anyway when injuries occur, even if they agree with you and assume that he is a less talented player. So... they are committing to rostering a less talented player. If he is wasting roster space, you might as well cut him right now and call up Rooker, Kiriloff or Larnach and give the roster space to someone who will play and increase in value in the process. Better for today and the future.

 

I'm not saying it's impossible that he suddenly figured something out.

 

You agree with me... This is my point.

 

But I think it's far more likely that he's a .680 OPS guy that got hot for a few weeks last year.

 

No offense intended but I don't trust you, I also don't trust myself in these matters and I don't trust the front office either, . I only trust the player to either succeed or fail. Once either of those two things happen, guessing is no longer required.

 

Tying this all together with the OP "3 Twins Prospects Impacted By Josh Donaldson's Signing".

 

Donaldson will only impact them if the Twins drop what they were doing in 2019 and go back to the traditional old school, Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor and Ron Gardenhire method of we got our 9 guys, that's all we need, let's hope we were right and extend our days of darkness longer than we should be in the dark.

They "commit roster space to a less talented player" because he's the most talented player they have access to, to fill a need for a bench player capable of filling in at multiple infield positions, including SS.

 

It's not a wasted spot. And the fact he IS a less talented player means he's not going to get as much playing time as Polanco. Not nearly as much, no matter who went 2 for 3 yesterday, or 0 for 3.

 

Nor should he.

 

You cant just let Adrianza get 600 PAs to confirm he's not as good as Polanco. You already know that, or at least believe it strongly enough that no manager is going to take those 600 PAs and willingly give them to Adrianza. Or any other backup.

 

Which isn't to say you dont need backups, of course you do.

[USAFChief]

As for Donaldson affecting 3 minor leaguers, I sure HOPE Donaldson plays well enough to lock up 600 PAs a year for the next half decade. That's the best case scenario...he doesnt leave room for anyone else at 3rd for 2 or 3 years and then takes some time away to DH. Who cares if it costs any of these 3 prospects PAs? What is the goal here?

[Major League Ready]

Rooker is the one most likely to be impacted by the Donaldson acquisition. He would have gotten a shot at some point this year if Sano was not moving to 1B. Kirilloff is probably still a year away. It would not be shocking if he tore up AA the 1st half of the season and that would have been more likely to get him promoted had Sano not moved to 1B. However, I still see him as the most likely 1B at some point in 2021 and doubt his timetable has changed much. Larnach is probably not impacted at all. He is the most likely Rosario replacement. The timing of his appearance at the ML level will be a product of his development as well as Rosario's performance.

[Riverbrian]

 

They "commit roster space to a less talented player" because he's the most talented player they have access to, to fill a need for a bench player capable of filling in at multiple infield positions, including SS.

It's not a wasted spot. And the fact he IS a less talented player means he's not going to get as much playing time as Polanco. Not nearly as much, no matter who went 2 for 3 yesterday, or 0 for 3.

Nor should he.

You cant just let Adrianza get 600 PAs to confirm he's not as good as Polanco. You already know that, or at least believe it strongly enough that no manager is going to take those 600 PAs and willingly give them to Adrianza. Or any other backup.

Which isn't to say you dont need backups, of course you do.

 

Roster spots are for 3 things

 

1. Helping the team win now

2. Increasing in Value

3. Fixing someone's flaws to eventually help the team win now or increase in value. (Shouldn't exceed a month's time) 

 

If a player doesn't fit into any of these 3 things. They are a waste of precious 26 man roster space. This is how you keep the factory at full production. 

 

If Adrianza is "capable of filling in at multiple infield positions, including SS".

 

We should allow him to fill in at multiple positions including SS.

 

I'll let you designate the backup tag on him, if it helps. 

[MMMordabito]

 

and go back to the traditional old school, Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor and Ron Gardenhire method of we got our 9 guys, that's all we need, let's hope we were right and extend our days of darkness longer than we should be in the dark. 

 

Except on Wednesday afternoons,  then everyone on the bench will play so we can lose a quick game and get the hell out of there.

[Riverbrian]

Except on Wednesday afternoons, then everyone on the bench will play so we can lose a quick game and get the hell out of there.

The getaway day lineup is perhaps the dumbest idea in the history of roster management.

[Riverbrian]

 

As for Donaldson affecting 3 minor leaguers, I sure HOPE Donaldson plays well enough to lock up 600 PAs a year for the next half decade. That's the best case scenario...he doesnt leave room for anyone else at 3rd for 2 or 3 years and then takes some time away to DH. Who cares if it costs any of these 3 prospects PAs? What is the goal here?

 

The Goal is win this year

 

And the goal is to win beyond this year

 

And the goal is to manage payroll so we can afford key acquisitions such as Donaldson in the future to supplement the young prospects that they have already FULLY Committed to. 

 

The Front Office has already let us know by action that they have FULLY committed to the prospects. It doesn't matter if you or I agree or disagree with this, It's happening... it's a done deal so we might as well get used to the idea. 

 

You and I both know that they have committed to the prospects because they didn't acquire anyone at the trade deadline last July nor have they traded any prospects for starting pitching this off-season (As of yet). 

 

The clues are before us: Highly probable playoff team(Division Winner), Record breaking offense and a clear undeniable need for a starting pitcher at the deadline. You know they made phone calls and once they determined that the prospect price is too high for a starting pitcher under this context... they are telling all of us that they are committed to the prospects. The prospects were more important than a much needed starting pitcher upgrade for the 2019 playoffs. 

 

We can stretch this out into this off-season. 4 starting pitchers needed... none traded for with prospects (as of yet). All 4 starting pitchers signing FA contracts with a still obvious need for starting pitchers to support a returning record breaking offense and an expected playoff team. They are once again telling us... that they are committed to the prospects. It's a done deal... there is no sense fighting against it. 

 

If they are committed to them... and they are. Your quote "Who cares if it costs any of these 3 prospects PAs" is counter-productive. We already have equity invested into these prospects when we didn't trade any of them for starting pitching at the trade deadline. We will have even more equity invested in them when they don't move them for starting pitching this off-season. 

 

After 2020: The Twins will need to replace, Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez and Adrianza along with Odorizzi, Bailey, Hill, Clippard and May. The Money saved on these expiring contracts will get a big chunk taken out by raises going out to Sano, Pineda, Rosario, Rogers, Berrios, Buxton and Duffey.

 

Leaving us with 7 new roster additions to identify in the off-season (3 starting pitchers, a couple of bullpen arms, a really big bat in Cruz and an interesting Marwin Gonzalez type player). The Twins might have 20 million ('m guessing) to work with in the off-season.

 

I'm going to assume right now that we will not land 7 free agents with 20 million to work with unless we bring on a boat load of questionable 3 million dollar type FA additions and I don't recommend that. If the front office even wants to consider adding a high dollar FA next off-season(Not Saying they will). This means that the front office is COUNTING ON 600K talent coming up from the minors to fill some of those 7 spots for next season. 

 

If they are counting on the prospects... I think they are as I illustrate above... I'd rather they don't pull another Hicks, Buxton jam into CF before they are ready with no safety net for a debut on opening day 2021. 

 

Of all the prospects, the 3 mentioned in this article along with Royce Lewis are the highest rated and perhaps closest to major league ready.

 

And of course after 2021 and into 2022: More free agents and more pay raises. 

 

You and I both know that payroll may go up but will not go up significantly. You and I both know that FA's are not guaranteed to sign on the dotted line if they have horses in Arizona even if they did. 

 

The prospects are coming and it better be this year. Start prepping now. 

[USAFChief]

You dont want to "jam them into the lineup" in 2021, but you want to jam them into the lineup in 2020.

 

I dont follow the logic.

 

As for counting on prospects, they're certainly putting faith young pitching in 2020. Hope it works.

 

But they're certainly NOT putting any faith in position player prospects. Rightfully so, IMO.

 

If we get to 2021 and they're forced into putting Kirilloff in LF, worry about that then.

[ewen21]

 

 

 

Why should Eddie Rosario be the designated a starter over Jake Cave?

 

. 

 

I know I have put Eddie out there as trade bait to bring in a pitcher, but can we please acknowledge that he is a better player than Cave by virtue of the fact that he has over 2,000 plate appearances and has proven that he can hit and play day-in-day out.  I am taking nothing away from Cave by saying this.

 

You are overthinking this one.  Ask 10 people on the Twins who is better Cave or Rosario and 10 out of 10 will tell you it's Eddie.  No deep analysis is required

[Riverbrian]

You dont want to "jam them into the lineup" in 2021, but you want to jam them into the lineup in 2020.

 

I dont follow the logic.

 

As for counting on prospects, they're certainly putting faith young pitching in 2020. Hope it works.

 

But they're certainly NOT putting any faith in position player prospects. Rightfully so, IMO.

 

If we get to 2021 and they're forced into putting Kirilloff in LF, worry about that then.

I'm not worried about jamming them into the lineup in 2020. Cruz and Marwin are on the roster along with everyone else. If Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker, Lewis or Blankenhorn all struggle we will be OK but you gotta see what they can do and see WHO can do it.

 

Same thing as Dobnak\Perez last year.

 

I'm not fine jamming untested players into the playoffs and this is our injury insurance. I'd like to know who we have to count on when Cruz and Sano are down with injuries and Rosario is hitting .200 for August and September. GAME ONE of the playoffs. Can Kiriloff contribute or does Marwin play 1B with Cave at DH while we pray Rosario pulls out of the funk.

 

And then yes... I am worried about jamming them onto the roster for opening day 2021 untested like we are doing with Dobnak and Smeltzer this year and like we did with Hicks and Buxton. AFTER the off-season and after the roster is set with the shopping aisle closed and no information on if they can handle it or WHO can handle it.

 

If they all show they can't handle it in 2020. We know that an alternative needs to be found for opening day 2021 to replace Cruz and Marwin and the little dollar's we have available can be allocated correctly instead of guessing.

 

This is why Adrianza ties into this discussion. If Adrianza can repeat his performance, the team can identify if he fits into 2021 plans and maybe we only need two not three position players in addition to the 3 starters and bullpen arms.

 

The logic is easy. Before you launch a rocket with lives on the line. It's a good idea to test it first.

[Mr. Brooks]

The Goal is win this year

 

And the goal is to win beyond this year

 

And the goal is to manage payroll so we can afford key acquisitions such as Donaldson in the future to supplement the young prospects that they have already FULLY Committed to.

 

The Front Office has already let us know by action that they have FULLY committed to the prospects. It doesn't matter if you or I agree or disagree with this, It's happening... it's a done deal so we might as well get used to the idea.

 

You and I both know that they have committed to the prospects because they didn't acquire anyone at the trade deadline last July nor have they traded any prospects for starting pitching this off-season (As of yet).

 

The clues are before us: Highly probable playoff team(Division Winner), Record breaking offense and a clear undeniable need for a starting pitcher at the deadline. You know they made phone calls and once they determined that the prospect price is too high for a starting pitcher under this context... they are telling all of us that they are committed to the prospects. The prospects were more important than a much needed starting pitcher upgrade for the 2019 playoffs.

 

We can stretch this out into this off-season. 4 starting pitchers needed... none traded for with prospects (as of yet). All 4 starting pitchers signing FA contracts with a still obvious need for starting pitchers to support a returning record breaking offense and an expected playoff team. They are once again telling us... that they are committed to the prospects. It's a done deal... there is no sense fighting against it.

 

If they are committed to them... and they are. Your quote "Who cares if it costs any of these 3 prospects PAs" is counter-productive. We already have equity invested into these prospects when we didn't trade any of them for starting pitching at the trade deadline. We will have even more equity invested in them when they don't move them for starting pitching this off-season.

 

After 2020: The Twins will need to replace, Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez and Adrianza along with Odorizzi, Bailey, Hill, Clippard and May. The Money saved on these expiring contracts will get a big chunk taken out by raises going out to Sano, Pineda, Rosario, Rogers, Berrios, Buxton and Duffey.

 

Leaving us with 7 new roster additions to identify in the off-season (3 starting pitchers, a couple of bullpen arms, a really big bat in Cruz and an interesting Marwin Gonzalez type player). The Twins might have 20 million ('m guessing) to work with in the off-season.

 

I'm going to assume right now that we will not land 7 free agents with 20 million to work with unless we bring on a boat load of questionable 3 million dollar type FA additions and I don't recommend that. If the front office even wants to consider adding a high dollar FA next off-season(Not Saying they will). This means that the front office is COUNTING ON 600K talent coming up from the minors to fill some of those 7 spots for next season.

 

If they are counting on the prospects... I think they are as I illustrate above... I'd rather they don't pull another Hicks, Buxton jam into CF before they are ready with no safety net for a debut on opening day 2021.

 

Of all the prospects, the 3 mentioned in this article along with Royce Lewis are the highest rated and perhaps closest to major league ready.

 

And of course after 2021 and into 2022: More free agents and more pay raises.

 

You and I both know that payroll may go up but will not go up significantly. You and I both know that FA's are not guaranteed to sign on the dotted line if they have horses in Arizona even if they did.

 

The prospects are coming and it better be this year. Start prepping now.

I'm estimating arbitration amounts, of course.

But I come up with $99M in 2021 payroll for the remaining players in your above scenario.

Should be more like 30-35 million to spend. I don't know if that changes your argument.

[Riverbrian]

 

I'm estimating arbitration amounts, of course.
But I come up with $99M in 2021 payroll for the remaining players in your above scenario.
Should be more like 30-35 million to spend. I don't know if that changes your argument.

 

I'll go with those numbers. 

 

The extra 10 million still gets spread thin with the volume needed. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I'll go with those numbers.

 

The extra 10 million still gets spread thin with the volume needed.

I agree that a couple of those guys are going to have to be able to step in for the league minimum next year.

At least 15 of that $30M is going to have to go to one starting pitcher.

[Riverbrian]

 

I agree that a couple of those guys are going to have to be able to step in for the league minimum next year.
At least 15 of that $30M is going to have to go to one starting pitcher.

 

Then you and I are really not that far apart in our discussion. You see it. We can't allow Donaldson to affect the rookies. 

 

This is how Cave and Adrianza also tie into the whole debate. If Adrianza can show value, he can become a cheaper option to help free up money for that 15 Million Dollar Pitcher that I agree we need. 

 

I've got posters challenging me on my comment with a "no doubt Rosario" is better. That was never point... the point was... Can Cave play? How much better is Rosario than Cave, if he is better? Because Cave could become a cheaper option that can free up money for that 15 million dollar pitcher. 

 

We won't know if Adrianza, Cave, Larnach, Kiriloff, Rooker, can play unless 

 

We play them.   

 

20 AB's a month on getaway days won't give us enough information to make decision for the playoffs next year and it won't give us enough enough information on where to allocate our limited resources next year. 

 

That's why I say... If Adrianza isn't going to play because he has been pre-designated as not good enough to play. Move on because we got to find someone else who is good enough to play.  

 

Each roster spot is precious and all we have to is find the time and our flexibility allows us to find the time in multiple locations. 

[DocBauer]

What I find so fascinating about how the discussion has turned here is how everyone is not only so respectful of everyone else's option...and I would expect nothing less...but how everyone is really stating almost the same opinion, but from just slightly different vantage points, which means we are really splitting some fine hairs here.

 

Which, of course, means I have to toss in my own perspectives and opinions. I'd like to say I'll be brief as I can, but Chief will just tease me about that if I say it.

 

1] At this point in time, I don't buy that Marwin and Adrianza and others are automatically gone next season. You keep guys who are good and contribute to your success as a team. Just way too early to speculate about 2021 payroll.

 

2] I'm not picking on a player, but I'm going to accidentally do so. The tiny, split hair debate Brian is having, goes back a couple of seasons to when Molitor was the manager and LaMarre made the club as the last man. Note: the roster is absolutely different then than it is now. If LaMarre was good enough to make the club, then he was good enough to play. And if he wasn't good enough to play, then he shouldn't be on the roster and someone else should have been promoted and given opportunity.

 

The Morrisson signing, unto itself, was a smart move. It turned out terrible. So rather than just continue to play him, SOMEONE, ANYONE, should have been given a shot instead, rather than just beating a dead cat against the wall. (Monty Python fans will get that, God Bless Terry Jones).

 

Now, I get a team, a poor team, that is shallow in talent not having options just hoping for luck and a turnaround. That is NOT our beloved Twins. But the context remains.

 

I hate to state the obvious, but on even the absolute best teams with a roster of 13 position players...lets say a team coming off a 101 win season (wink)...it's pretty damn doubtful that you have 13 position players that are so high quality they could/should/can start and provide maximum value. There will always be someone who is flat out a better player than the guy behind them. To argue semantics that someone is a "reserve" or "bench" player is kind of ridiculous.

 

Witness Cave and Adrianza. Adrianza, right now at least, is probably a better defensive SS than Polanco. But his overall contributions to a winning team don't match Polanco as the primary SS. That doesn't demean Adrianza as a viable and contributing part of the club. In the same way, Marwin is a very talented player in many aspects. He can be very solid as a "starter", but is best served, and provides greater value, as a multi-position "reserve". Semantics again. Cave? Cave is a really nice ballplayer who still has some potential. But some guys, lime Adrianza, get an opportunity and run with it. Cave has done really well, but when opportunity arose, he didn't just grab opportunity. At least not yet. Hence, despite numbers and production, he is a "reserve" or bench player or alternate at this time. Maybe, given a daily shot with the Twins, or someone else, he could/might turn a corner and escalate.

 

But we are going to get caught up in semantics of roles with a manager who plays everyone and let's them have opportunity? Again, we are splitting fine hairs here. Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Raley...opportunity will come.

 

3] I love this FO, despite a few flubs. (Including some bad PR moments). Since day 1 they have talked about building the organization from top down for a sustainable, competitive franchise. IMO, they have had 2 1/2 years to build the system. I include the half season because no matter how informed you'd like to think they are/we're, you are still joining a new franchise and simply don't know everything you have, or all the variables in play, until you punch that clock.

 

There have been MAJOR changes from the top on down since they took over. There should be no need to go over this again. Are they COMMITTED to prospects? Honestly, I don't know. Do you know? If they were, would that be a terrible thing? Or are we still stuck in our thinking regarding the past way of doing things? Just because they haven't made a major prospect move in a trade thus far, does it mean they won't?

 

Despite being pleasantly surprised and stunned by the Donaldson signing, weren't we also elated/surprised by the Cruz and Marwin signings last season? How did those turn out? Remember how up in arms we were, me included, when we didn't sign one of the RP FA available last offseason?

 

Just because we haven't seen a thing doesn't mean we won't see a thing. Now, mid-season, or next off-season, we could see depth of the farm moved. Point of fact, a few minor injuries curtailed Rooker, Lewis and Kirilloff. Young as they are, talented as they are, could an additional half season of positive results make any of them even more desirable in future trades? Just spitballing. Just because we haven't seen a thing yet doesn't mean we won't see a thing.

[Riverbrian]

What I find so fascinating about how the discussion has turned here is how everyone is not only so respectful of everyone else's option...and I would expect nothing less...but how everyone is really stating almost the same opinion, but from just slightly different vantage points, which means we are really splitting some fine hairs here.

 

Which, of course, means I have to toss in my own perspectives and opinions. I'd like to say I'll be brief as I can, but Chief will just tease me about that if I say it.

 

1] At this point in time, I don't buy that Marwin and Adrianza and others are automatically gone next season. You keep guys who are good and contribute to your success as a team. Just way too early to speculate about 2021 payroll.

 

2] I'm not picking on a player, but I'm going to accidentally do so. The tiny, split hair debate Brian is having, goes back a couple of seasons to when Molitor was the manager and LaMarre made the club as the last man. Note: the roster is absolutely different then than it is now. If LaMarre was good enough to make the club, then he was good enough to play. And if he wasn't good enough to play, then he shouldn't be on the roster and someone else should have been promoted and given opportunity.

 

The Morrisson signing, unto itself, was a smart move. It turned out terrible. So rather than just continue to play him, SOMEONE, ANYONE, should have been given a shot instead, rather than just beating a dead cat against the wall. (Monty Python fans will get that, God Bless Terry Jones).

 

Now, I get a team, a poor team, that is shallow in talent not having options just hoping for luck and a turnaround. That is NOT our beloved Twins. But the context remains.

 

I hate to state the obvious, but on even the absolute best teams with a roster of 13 position players...lets say a team coming off a 101 win season (wink)...it's pretty damn doubtful that you have 13 position players that are so high quality they could/should/can start and provide maximum value. There will always be someone who is flat out a better player than the guy behind them. To argue semantics that someone is a "reserve" or "bench" player is kind of ridiculous.

 

Witness Cave and Adrianza. Adrianza, right now at least, is probably a better defensive SS than Polanco. But his overall contributions to a winning team don't match Polanco as the primary SS. That doesn't demean Adrianza as a viable and contributing part of the club. In the same way, Marwin is a very talented player in many aspects. He can be very solid as a "starter", but is best served, and provides greater value, as a multi-position "reserve". Semantics again. Cave? Cave is a really nice ballplayer who still has some potential. But some guys, lime Adrianza, get an opportunity and run with it. Cave has done really well, but when opportunity arose, he didn't just grab opportunity. At least not yet. Hence, despite numbers and production, he is a "reserve" or bench player or alternate at this time. Maybe, given a daily shot with the Twins, or someone else, he could/might turn a corner and escalate.

 

But we are going to get caught up in semantics of roles with a manager who plays everyone and let's them have opportunity? Again, we are splitting fine hairs here. Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Raley...opportunity will come.

 

3] I love this FO, despite a few flubs. (Including some bad PR moments). Since day 1 they have talked about building the organization from top down for a sustainable, competitive franchise. IMO, they have had 2 1/2 years to build the system. I include the half season because no matter how informed you'd like to think they are/we're, you are still joining a new franchise and simply don't know everything you have, or all the variables in play, until you punch that clock.

 

There have been MAJOR changes from the top on down since they took over. There should be no need to go over this again. Are they COMMITTED to prospects? Honestly, I don't know. Do you know? If they were, would that be a terrible thing? Or are we still stuck in our thinking regarding the past way of doing things? Just because they haven't made a major prospect move in a trade thus far, does it mean they won't?

 

Despite being pleasantly surprised and stunned by the Donaldson signing, weren't we also elated/surprised by the Cruz and Marwin signings last season? How did those turn out? Remember how up in arms we were, me included, when we didn't sign one of the RP FA available last offseason?

 

Just because we haven't seen a thing doesn't mean we won't see a thing. Now, mid-season, or next off-season, we could see depth of the farm moved. Point of fact, a few minor injuries curtailed Rooker, Lewis and Kirilloff. Young as they are, talented as they are, could an additional half season of positive results make any of them even more desirable in future trades? Just spitballing. Just because we haven't seen a thing yet doesn't mean we won't see a thing.

Good post Doc.

 

We are living in a world where not that long ago in 2018, being a backup meant 20 AB's a month and this was the way it was for decades. This was a cemented reality for followers of the Twins and many can't shake themselves from this thinking. This is why the semantics are still being debated and why I am at war against the term backup. 2019 happened and it was exactly what I asked for and a majority of writers and posters want to go back to the chosen 9 mentality of as recent as 2018 for 2020.

 

We have this article stating that Donaldson will affect Larnach, Kiriloff and Rooker. currently on the front page there is an article "4 options for Twins final bench spot" and "Twins boast a plethora of backup options.

 

You are correct when you use Ryan Lamarre and Logan Morrison as an example but this all started for me back in 2016. The Twins were dying in April on the way to the 1st pick overall while Kepler and Polanco were called up just to be benched watching the chosen 9 kill the team. This is why I respond when I read articles about Donaldson affecting Rooker, Kiriloff and Larnach. It's like 2019 didn't happen.

 

Each roster spot is an opportunity to grow a player for future decisions and future trade value... growing 9 instead of 13 is a waste.

 

Could the Twins bring back Marwin? Sure but it's going to take a big chunk out of the available funds. If he doesn't come back it would be helpful if we can give Kiriloff that roster spot at 600K and know that Kiriloff is looking like Yordan Alverez out there when we make that decision. We could use Arraez in the Marwin role instead of declaring Arraez the everyday 2B for the next 6 years but to make these decisions it takes information... or playing time if you will. I understand that posters want Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Cruz, Sano and Donaldson to play everyday and for Cave to only have 20 AB's a month but you have killed Cave doing that. Cave could be an answer to next year when we are trying figure out how to allocate funds or an increased value trade chip. If Cave played like Morrison... let him go. However he didn't. So the solution is to kill him ourselves? Because no one can tolerate playing .800 OPS when you have a guy with .820 OPS?

 

 

I read the articles and the comments, the starting 9 has been declared like 2019 didn't happen.

 

I'm saying that if we go back to the 2018 model. Our window will be short and we will be plugging self created holes with Zach Cozart types in the future.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm estimating arbitration amounts, of course.
But I come up with $99M in 2021 payroll for the remaining players in your above scenario.
Should be more like 30-35 million to spend. I don't know if that changes your argument.

 

Sounds about right but we need to replace 10 players at the end of 2020. That's not feasible from within.  It would appear they will need to use free agency to fill some holes.

[Riverbrian]

Sounds about right but we need to replace 10 players at the end of 2020. That's not feasible from within. It would appear they will need to use free agency to fill some holes.

Yep and if you want to increase your allocation of available dollars to acquire these free agents or at least know where to allocate the limited amount of funds you have to work with.

 

You better know what your 600K talent can do.

[The Wise One]

 

I agree that a couple of those guys are going to have to be able to step in for the league minimum next year.
At least 15 of that $30M is going to have to go to one starting pitcher.

Odo got 17.9  To replace him if he doesn't resign is going to cost at least that. It is likely to cost more. The class at this point looks thin. An underachiever could rise up this year. Two years ago who would have thought that Odo would be a 17.9 million pitcher