Front Page: PASSAN: Twins, Sano in Agreement on 3-Year Contract Extension

[sftwinsfan]

Good move for the team and for Miguel. The team gets some cost certainty and extends out a key player that was possibly gone in 2 years. That leaves Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Garver, and Arraez together at least the next 4 years with Buxton, Berrios, Duffey, and Rogers the next 3. The longer they can keep their core group together the longer their competitive window will last. 

 

The team must have a lot of faith in him as we all know the challenges he's faced in the past. It could be a lot of money to pay a defensively-challenged player who could challenge strikeout records. But he also has a lot of talent and seemed to make some big strides forward last season and the team showing this confidence could help him take another step forward. If he does it will be a great deal for the Twins. For Miguel he could be giving up some decent money if he does continue to hit, but he also gets the security of life-changing money that he should never have to worry about taking care of his family again. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Does this make him MORE valuable in a trade?  Especially at what appears to be team-friendly dollar figures

It definitely makes him more valuable in trade but teams don't do that for pretty obvious PR reasons, both for fans and fellow teammates.

 

Who would sign a long-term deal with the Twins after watching someone "stick" with the team and then get traded afterward?

[PseudoSABR]

 

It definitely makes him more valuable in trade but teams don't do that for pretty obvious PR reasons, both for fans and fellow teammates.

 

Who would sign a long-term deal with the Twins after watching someone "stick" with the team and then get traded afterward?

Not only that. Trading him would chill other players' willingness to sign long term, and it may even effect free agency. Players value certainty as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not only that. Trading him would chill other players' willingness to sign long term, and it may even effect free agency. Players value certainty as well.

That's what I said, albeit quite poorly because you didn't understand that was my point.

[PseudoSABR]

 

That's what I said, albeit quite poorly because you didn't understand that was my point.

I skimmed past* "teammates" and conflated it with fans; so, to be fair, it wasn't quite that poorly.  The only thing I added was that it could affect free agency.  

 

*I had to google whether to use past/passed, and I'm still not sure.

Edited January 11, 2020 by PseudoSABR

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I skimmed past* "teammates" and conflated it with fans; so, to be fair, it wasn't quite that poorly.  The only thing I added was that it could affect free agency.  

 

*I had to google whether to use past/passed, and I'm still not sure.

Pseudo, have you been drinking?

 

Because I sure have been.

 

Also, like 95% sure that's "past" because it can be a preposition "moving beyond".

[dgwills]

 

Pseudo, have you been drinking?

 

Because I sure have been.

 

Also, like 95% sure that's "past" because it can be a preposition "moving beyond".

I've had a few too!  Good signing, but I'd just as soon let Sano go. You know why.

[Oxtung]

While there isn't enough money involved to be a problem, I am not a fan of this extension. They already had him under control for 2 more seasons at a discounted and non-guaranteed rate. Did we really need 30 year old DH Sano? Sano is essentially a 2-3 WAR player moving forward (assuming they move him to 1B or DH and/or his defense doesn't improve at 3B). Those players are available every off season for cheap like Thames who signed for 2 years $6 million and can provide similar production. 

 

This contract certainly isn't terrible and is by no means crippling, but I don't really see the advantage of it either. Unless Sano considerably improves some part of his game 3 years and $30MM isn't really a bargain, so why lock yourself in?

[John Bonnes]

 

 

Okay, so a $14m team option with a $3m buyout. Correct?

 

Yep. So it's essentially something like 6/9/12/3+11M option. I wouldn't be shocked if the negotiations came down to how much of that 4th year was guaranteed. 3M feels a little high; Sano won on that one. But, I believe in him, so it's worth it to keep him around for two extra years. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Great discussion. Thanks to all who participated. It's 1 am EST here in North Carolina. Good night.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Pseudo, have you been drinking?

 

Because I sure have been.

 

Also, like 95% sure that's "past" because it can be a preposition "moving beyond".

Here I am the guy with too many English degrees and you teaching me about grammar.  And, obviously yes to the first question. It's FRIDAY! Cheers, my friend. 

[Danchat]

 

While there isn't enough money involved to be a problem, I am not a fan of this extension. They already had him under control for 2 more seasons at a discounted and non-guaranteed rate. Did we really need 30 year old DH Sano? Sano is essentially a 2-3 WAR player moving forward (assuming they move him to 1B or DH and/or his defense doesn't improve at 3B). Those players are available every off season for cheap like Thames who signed for 2 years $6 million and can provide similar production. 

 

This contract certainly isn't terrible and is by no means crippling, but I don't really see the advantage of it either. Unless Sano considerably improves some part of his game 3 years and $30MM isn't really a bargain, so why lock yourself in?

The advantage is that instead of Sano hitting FA in 2022, you get to keep him for something around $12M, which is quite a bargain IMO. Then you get another year of him in 2023 for $14M or you pay him a $3M. Plus you could trade him in 2021-22 and get something nice for him since he's on a team friendly deal. (yeah, I know there's a discussion about not trading the guy, but you could certainly trade him near the end of the deal.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Here I am the guy with too many English degrees and you teaching me about grammar.  And, obviously yes to the first question. It's FRIDAY! Cheers, my friend. 

CHEERS!

[rghrbek]

Bottom line, it's just a fair deal for both sides, even if he does not become the star we all thought he wold be. He's with us for 3 years at least, and at 31 with his defensive limitations, at the end of his deal.., I think it's a big win. 

[IndianaTwin]

 

Yep. So it's essentially something like 6/9/12/3+11M option. I wouldn't be shocked if the negotiations came down to how much of that 4th year was guaranteed. 3M feels a little high; Sano won on that one. But, I believe in him, so it's worth it to keep him around for two extra years. 

 

Yeah, that was my thought on the $3MM option as well. Has anyone ever calculated what an average buyout is in terms of percentage of the total. It can’t be as high as 21 percent, can it? 

 

Have you seen the 6/9/12 progression reported, or is it just a guess? If the latter, it seems like a good guess to me. 

[IndianaTwin]

 

The advantage is that instead of Sano hitting FA in 2022, you get to keep him for something around $12M, which is quite a bargain IMO. Then you get another year of him in 2023 for $14M or you pay him a $3M. Plus you could trade him in 2021-22 and get something nice for him since he's on a team friendly deal. (yeah, I know there's a discussion about not trading the guy, but you could certainly trade him near the end of the deal.)

 

With the added benefit of some cost certainty as they make other long-term decisions.

 

Not to mention that there’s a CBA in the works. What if a new agreement would give him the option to be a free agent in 2021? Then you’ve bought out two years of free agency. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

CHEERS!

Where everyone knows your name?

[Mr. Brooks]

While there isn't enough money involved to be a problem, I am not a fan of this extension. They already had him under control for 2 more seasons at a discounted and non-guaranteed rate. Did we really need 30 year old DH Sano? Sano is essentially a 2-3 WAR player moving forward (assuming they move him to 1B or DH and/or his defense doesn't improve at 3B). Those players are available every off season for cheap like Thames who signed for 2 years $6 million and can provide similar production.

 

This contract certainly isn't terrible and is by no means crippling, but I don't really see the advantage of it either. Unless Sano considerably improves some part of his game 3 years and $30MM isn't really a bargain, so why lock yourself in?

Sano put up double the bWAR (3.1 vs 1.6), in 50% less games than Thames last year.

And, Sano is just 26 years old, so there is certainly the opportunity for improvement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not to mention that there’s a CBA in the works. What if a new agreement would give him the option to be a free agent in 2021? Then you’ve bought out two years of free agency.

This is a non-factor. The current CBA is in effect through the 2021 season, when Sano was scheduled to reach 6 years service time and free agency anyway.

 

Edit to add: although we did effectively buy out 2 FA years when you consider the 2023 option.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sano put up double the bWAR (3.1 vs 1.6), in 50% less games than Thames last year.

And, Sano is just 26 years old, so there is certainly the opportunity for improvement.

I wouldn't necessarily call Thames a comp yet either, but Thames and Sano had virtually the same number of PA last year. Thames had more games but he was appearing a lot as a pinch hitter in the NL.

 

I wonder if the better comp might be someone like Castellanos? He's been a pretty good hitter the last two years, but his market is pretty limited due to position and defense.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, if the QO stays the same after 2021, it's possible we could have wound up with 2022 control at similar cost to his 2022 salary and 2023 buyout.

 

Edit to add: not that this is a bad deal for the Twins -- it's likely pretty fair for both sides. I don't think Sano was necessarily looking at a big FA payday anymore.

[bighat]

 

Which could be said about literally every person to ever throw a baseball from a mound.

Right? Might as well say "unless he gets hit by a bus or comes down with West Nile Virus". Seriously.

[Mr. Brooks]

I wouldn't necessarily call Thames a comp yet either, but Thames and Sano had virtually the same number of PA last year. Thames had more games but he was appearing a lot as a pinch hitter in the NL.

 

I wonder if the better comp might be someone like Castellanos? He's been a pretty good hitter the last two years, but his market is pretty limited due to position and defense.

My bad on the playing time comparison. That's what I deserve for skimming.

[wabene]

Which could be said about literally every person to ever throw a baseball from a mound.

Obviously he is pointing out the incentive he does have to sign.

[wabene]

FWIW, if the QO stays the same after 2021, it's possible we could have wound up with 2022 control at similar cost to his 2022 salary and 2023 buyout.

Edit to add: not that this is a bad deal for the Twins -- it's likely pretty fair for both sides. I DON'T THINK SANO WAS NECESSARILY LOOKING AT A BIG FA PAYDAY ANYMORE.

Yes, this is a good point. Previously there was an assumption that Sano wanted a big payday on the east coast. That he would jump ship at the first opportunity. Maybe the good will engendered this past year with his success, the team's success and possibly the clubhouse/Cruz factor has sweetened him on Minnie. With Berrios not inked yet hopefully the same is weighing on him.

[jmlease1]

I like this deal a lot. It's a good one for both sides: Sano gets life-altering money locked in (important for a guy with some injury history), and the Twins get cost certainty for the next two years with a good price on the first 2 years of free agency...but not so good that Sano is going to be pissed off after 1 year of the deal if he stays healthy and crushes the ball again.

 

And especially if Sano sticks at 3B his market as a FA was going to be pretty significant. Even if he moves to 1B, he's going to have plenty of suitors; this isn't CJ Cron we're talking about. Cron's never gotten higher than 2.0 bWAR in his best seasons; Sano (despite the injuries) has 3 seasons that are better than that, and he's 3 years younger.

 

Sano's floor is a 2 bWAR guy for the next 3 years; if he can play 120 games (a bit of an if since he's never done it) the floor looks a lot more like 3 bWAR with the ceiling more like 5 or so.. That's a guy who would get paid as a FA, not someone scrambling for a job in Feb. Sano's power is immense, and his HR rate isn't going to be messed up by changes to the ball, or do people really think he was getting cheap, juiced ball HRs last year? It plays in every park.

[IndianaTwin]

 

This is a non-factor. The current CBA is in effect through the 2021 season, when Sano was scheduled to reach 6 years service time and free agency anyway.

Edit to add: although we did effectively buy out 2 FA years when you consider the 2023 option.

 

Thanks for the correction. 

[RochesterDave]

I applaud the Sano signing! It not only shows confidence from the FO that Miguel will continue to produce and improve, but it shows two-way loyalty . I along with most TD readers thought that he would be gone once FA occurred. In terms of Berrios , I also think the $400K gap is ridiculous and the Twins could have agreed to the higher figure. But I don’t think Berrios is really open to a long-term deal . One of his best friends is Trevor Bauer, who espouses ONE year contracts and has gone on record as never signing a long-term deal AND betting on himself year to year. I think Bauer has Jose’s ear, and the only way he signs a long-term deal With the Twins is that it’s

an “overpay “ - something that Falvine does NOT do. Hoping I am wrong. Go Twins!

[jorgenswest]

My read into the gap is that they are working on an extension all along and not discussing an agreeable one year number. If it comes down to one year I think the Twins are low and the arbiter will decide with Berrios.

 

I look for the Twins to pay up on an extension. Keep focused on the extension.

[rdehring]

Of all the guys looking at a possible extension, Sano was the last I expected to see.

 

Always was the talk that he wanted to play in the bright lights, so I expected he wanted to move on when free agency arrived.  Yet, when I see him in the dugout with the guys he came up with, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, Kepler, I see a kid loving what he is doing and who he is doing it with.  Which was real?  This seems to indicate all the talk about the bright lights may have been just that, talk.

 

Don't see any problem with Berrios as the two sides are merely going thru the process.  Would love to see him inked to an extension, along with Trevor May.

 

Appears the contract is front loaded with $10mm paid the first year between salary and a signing bonus (per Roster Resource & Strib).  If so, great move by the Twins.