Front Page: Let’s Wait to Declare the Offseason a Failure for the Minnesota Twins

[Boom Boom]

What would you have done differently?

 

Outbid the top revenue team in league for Cole?

Given an 8th year to Stassburg which still might not been enough to get him away from the Nats?

Massive overpay for Wheeler to get him to ignore family values

Massive overpay for Madbum to compensate him for his preference to be in Arizona.

Outbid the Jays 4/80 bid for a 33 y/o with a significant history of injury.

 

Which one sounds like the most realistic or best option for a below average revenue team?

Get creative. Trade a prospect. Make an aggressive move.

 

 

Throw out spring training invites by the dozens. Basically, do more.

 

 

Honestly, I think there was (and is) still plenty of room for a Kyle Gibson in this staff.

[Major League Ready]

 

Offered Wheeler 5/135 mil

Offered Madbum 4/100 mill

Offered Ryu 3/80

 

Yes, I would have done things like this is that order. That would have guaranteed we get one of them

 

The differences in these offers and what the Twins had on the table amounts to about 3-5 million more per year. If they were willing to go to 100 with Wheeler, 80 with Madbum or 65 with Ryu, the difference is basically what would amount to a bullpen arm or a utility player. A bullpen arm or position player that could be easily filled with someone in your system for the league minimum. 

 

 

 

. 

 

We just don't agree on RYU. Where Wheeler and MadBum are concerned, there were numerous other teams interested in them. Any of them could have followed your suggested strategy. None of them did. Not a single one. This is not theoretical. We know none of the other teams were willing to apply your strategy. Are you asserting a superior decision making ability to all of these GMs because the facts are quite clear here. None of them were willing to make the overpay you suggest or those offers/amounts still did not get the job done. 

 

BTW ... If you are interested in an outside perspective, Mark Polisuk answered two related questions in his chat yesterday.    https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-6742.html

[Mike Sixel]

 

We just don't agree on RYU. Where Wheeler and MadBum are concerned, there were numerous other teams interested in them. Any of them could have followed your suggested strategy. None of them did. Not a single one. Are you asserting a superior understanding of how to utilize team assets as compared to all of the GMs who did not follow your strategy? This is not theoretical. We know none of the other teams were willing to apply your strategy. Are you asserting a superior decision making ability to all of these GMs because the facts are quite clear here. None of them were willing to make the overpay you suggest or those offers/amounts still did not get the job done. 

 

BTW ... If you are interested in an outside perspective, Mark Polisuk answered two related questions in his chat yesterday.    https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-6742.html

 

If we judge them based on other team's actions, I assume you would condemn them for not dealing for starting pitching at the last deadline, like the successful teams have? 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

We just don't agree on RYU. Where Wheeler and MadBum are concerned, there were numerous other teams interested in them. Any of them could have followed your suggested strategy. None of them did. Not a single one. This is not theoretical. We know none of the other teams were willing to apply your strategy. Are you asserting a superior decision making ability to all of these GMs because the facts are quite clear here. None of them were willing to make the overpay you suggest or those offers/amounts still did not get the job done. 

 

BTW ... If you are interested in an outside perspective, Mark Polisuk answered two related questions in his chat yesterday.    https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-6742.html

 

Did I say I was smarter than them?

You posted, "what would you do". I posted what I would have done. 

 

Were any of the other teams after these guys in the situation that the Twins are in? Because this is a unique case here at the moment. 

 

Are you of the belief that you must stick to your "assigned values" all the time, no matter the situation? I'm curious, because by doing so, as they have done this offseason, it resulted in getting ZERO of the guys they wanted. 

 

 

 

 

[howieramone2]

Once we signed Odorizzi and Pineda the case was no longer unique. We were in the same boat as half the other teams. Don't confuse free agency with Christmas.

[USAFChief]

 

What would you have done differently?

 

This has been asked, and answered, repeatedly.

 

One last try: sign one of the top 5 FA starting pitchers.

 

Don't try, don't give up, don't take "well, my fiance kinda prefers New Jersey" for an answer. 

 

Get it done. It's their job.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I was referring specifically to this offseason as I thought you were in your previous post. But yeah, when you stretch it out you can certainly build a stronger case (I would have loved to acquire Gallen as well, especially at that prospect price!). I was really just curious as to what you think the Twins would have had to have done to get one of the top 5 guys and what price you would be willing to pay as I don't think they had much of a realistic shot.

They weren't the high bidder on a single one of those 5 pitchers. If the Twins didn't have a realistic shot at landing any of them, it's because they never game themselves one. This FO kicked the can down the road, all the way to this FA class. There shouldn't be any sympathy for a FO that is the victim of circumstances entirely of their own making. 

[Major League Ready]

 

This has been asked, and answered, repeatedly.

 

One last try: sign one of the top 5 FA starting pitchers.

 

Don't try, don't give up, don't take "well, my fiance kinda prefers New Jersey" for an answer. 

 

Get it done. It's their job.

 

There really were not 5. Cole and Stassburg were not realistic.

 

Wheeler/Bumgarner - That is a very naive view IMO. Convince Wheeler family ties don't matter? Convince Bumgarner his desire for a horse ranch in Arizona is silly? The only option in the Wheeler/Bumgarner cases was a massive over pay. What is absolutely crystal clear is that NO OTHER MLB front office was willing to pay the premium required. Therefore, you are assuming to have a superior understanding of how to build a MLB team, not only as compared to the twins FO but also every other team in on Wheeler/Bumgarner. Good for you!

 

Seems I heard the exact same rhetoric regarding elite FA RPs last year. The FO was either stupid or just cheap from not recognizing what a no-brainer it was to sign Familia / Kimbrel / Miller / Robertson / Herrera / etc.

[Tomj14]

 

Lot's of people are calling this offsesason a failure without any trouble.  I find it somewhat troubling that as many people havent labeled last season a failure after that 3-and-out.  Seems rather inconsistent from the fans. I am not saying you or anyone in particular are a person who called last season a "success" and this offseason a "failure" ..

 

I have a problem with those who are doing that.

Last year was absolutely a success based on 101 wins, winning the division, homer record and some might say because they kept the core and prospects in tact, but mostly because it was fun to watch and see.

But it also felt a little hollow because when this HUGE surprise was happening some of the fans seen this team was missing a few pieces and hoped like heck the Front Office seen how special this team was and would fill those needs and give the players and fans a chance at some super special. That didn't happen and then they got swept.

So the fans were hoping for a little bit of excitement and talent being brought in to help this team this off season and nothing, sure they brought in a few arms that might help (hopefully will) but not one of my friends that are Twins fans, tweeted, texted or emailed saying sweet we got the player X.

And for a team coming off of what they Twins did last season to basically do nothing to excite the fan base between that sweep and opening day is a complete failure (Only the biggest fans give two rats arse about spring training). The moves they made might be good baseball moves but most twins fans aren't on here breaking down these pitchers.

 

 

 

 

[Craig Arko]

What I take away from this thread is the conclusion that sports have become a dysfunctional obsession for more people than I might have thought.

 

Dopey old me.

[Major League Ready]

 

If we judge them based on other team's actions, I assume you would condemn them for not dealing for starting pitching at the last deadline, like the successful teams have? 

 

Exactly which successful teams dealt for "impact" SPs last year at the deadline? Each year has a unique set of circumstances so you can compare just any year. I guess we could Stroman as an impact SP but the Mets are hardly an example of success. One 90 win (exactly 90) season in the past decade with 2 other seasons over 500. Obviously, Cole / Strassburg and Ryu were not going to be traded so they don't count but none of the playoff teams were willing to pay the price necessary to get Wheeler/Madbum or any other impact SP.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Exactly which successful teams dealt for "impact" SPs last year at the deadline?

 

Sigh. We are talking about multiple years here, right? So, I don't know, Houston when they first got good? I really try hard to have a conversation with you in good faith......Boston did. So did the Cubs. Just not last year, because they already had good / great pitching.

[prouster]

Well, better off-season than the Astros.

[USAFChief]

 

Exactly which successful teams dealt for "impact" SPs last year at the deadline? Each year has a unique set of circumstances so you can compare just any year. I guess we could Stroman as an impact SP but the Mets are hardly an example of success. One 90 win (exactly 90) season in the past decade with 2 other seasons over 500. Obviously, Cole / Strassburg and Ryu were not going to be traded so they don't count but none of the playoff teams were willing to pay the price necessary to get Wheeler/Madbum or any other impact SP.

Even restricting it to "the deadline," someone traded for Grienke, no? Would Houston fall under your definition of a successful team?

 

 

If we could expand that to last offseason, Washington--somewhat successful--added Patrick Corbin to a team that already had Sherzer and Strassburg. 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Sigh. We are talking about multiple years here, right? So, I don't know, Houston when they first got good? I really try hard to have a conversation with you in good faith......Boston did. So did the Cubs. Just not last year, because they already had good / great pitching.

 

No. You are talking about multiple years. I am talking about last year. The market is different ever year. The asking price was apparently high enough last year than none of the actual playoff ("successful") teams were willing to trade for a SP. Fact or fiction? They signed not one but two BP arms and I don't think they needed any help with position players.

 

 Also last year was the first year in a very long time where the Twins were at least somewhat legit contenders. You may count the year they crept into the 2nd wildcard spot with a team that really was never a contender but I do not.

[Major League Ready]

 

Even restricting it to "the deadline," someone traded for Grienke, no? Would Houston fall under your definition of a successful team?

 

 

If we could expand that to last offseason, Washington--somewhat successful--added Patrick Corbin to a team that already had Sherzer and Strassburg. 

 

Fair enough on Greinke but you guys sure do bend the narrative to your liking. We are talking about the specifics of this year's market. The argument was the Twins failed because they refused to pay the premium required. Mike could not refute the point that none of the other teams that were in on Wheeler / Bumgarner were willing to pay the premium associated with those players. This specificity allows us to judge our FO vs all of the other FOs involved. Let's be clear. All of the other teams involved concluded Wheeler and Bumgarner DID NOT merit the premium required to get them away from their preferred team. Rather than concede this point Mike changed the argument to what about deadline trades. 

[USAFChief]

Fair enough on Greinke but you guys sure do bend the narrative to your liking. We are talking about the specifics of this year's market. The argument was the Twins failed because they refused to pay the premium required. Mike could not refute the point that none of the other teams that were in on Wheeler / Bumgarner were willing to pay the premium associated with those players. This specificity allows us to judge our FO vs all of the other FOs involved. Let's be clear. All of the other teams involved concluded Wheeler and Bumgarner DID NOT merit the premium required to get them away from their preferred team. Rather than concede this point Mike changed the argument to what about deadline trades.

WE bend the narrative?

 

You posted twice that no team traded for a pitcher last deadline.

[Don Walcott]

 

Even restricting it to "the deadline," someone traded for Grienke, no? Would Houston fall under your definition of a successful team?

 

 

If we could expand that to last offseason, Washington--somewhat successful--added Patrick Corbin to a team that already had Sherzer and Strassburg. 

I sure wish we had Greinke right now. I wish he was available.

 

Corbin, too, for that matter.

[howieramone2]

Corbin is a great example for those keeping score at home. Our buds the large market Yankees had him all but tied up. After much reflection, they adamantly refused to add an additional year to the deal. The large market Nationals came out of nowhere, swooped down and gave him the final year. It's not fair, why can't we be a large market team?

[ewen21]

 

 

Don't try, don't give up, don't take "well, my fiance kinda prefers New Jersey" for an answer. 

 

Be reasonable.  

 

Cole and Strasburg just weren't realistic.  If you think we had a snowballs chance in hell landing either then please give me a paragraph on how USAFChief would have handled it.

 

Bumgarner was very clear about leaving money on the table to play in Arizona.  It was his preference.  Not sure how you would have swung that.  Please be specific and explain how you would have worked that one.  I am curious.

 

As far as Wheeler is concerned, he has an extensive injury history.  Over the course of three seasons 2015 to 2017 he pitched a total of 86 innings.  Are you saying we needed to hit a number higher than Philadelphia?  What do you prescribe?  I think it is an insane contract that Philly will most likely regret.

 

I have been through Ryu with you.

 

If you want to make signings that don't make no sense then OK whatever.  Giving Wheeler and Ryu more than what they got is terminally stupid.  The only one I think signed what could be termed as a reasonable contract was Bumgarner.  

 

You seem to forget what free agent means, specifically with higher level free agents.  It means they are free to go where they want to go and if they have a short list of places they want to play then that is where they are going to go.  When we get into guys earning 9 figures then money stops mattering.  Another 20 million means nothing to a guy who knows he's going to earn 9 figures and go where he wants to go.  You believe the Twins can coax guys with money and you really need to give up the ghost with that.  It just ain't happening in 2020.

[ashbury]

Let’s Wait to Declare the Offseason a Failure for the Minnesota Twins

I'm fine with waiting. Such a declaration looks like one that will stand the test of time.

 

Actually I don't see it as a failure, so much as a gamble. FalVine seem to be saying, "nah, we're good. We have Dobnak and Thorpe and Smeltzer." Which brings to mind this old chestnut:

 

 

Maybe, having signed recent contract extensions, they don't view the gamble as involving their careers. I've said before, if I were the boss, I'd disagree.

 

[howieramone2]

Falvey has large market team written all over him. If Friedman moves on, no doubt he'll take over the Beach Boys.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I have no way of knowing if a larger offer could have lured Wheeler away from Philadelphia.

 

But what a do know is that offering him less wasn't going to do it.

 

That's my main beef with the way this FO operates in free agency.

(And for the record I still support them.) Offering less money isn't going to lure them away from somewhere they prefer to be, so why even make that offer? That's why i have a hard time considering these "serious" offers.

Yes, $100M is a lot of money. Even in the context of pro athletes, it's a lot of money. But it's still less than the amount offered by his preferred destination!

 

And to go on record, I'd have matched the Ryu offer. I think in the context of this FA period, it's a very reasonable contract.

All pitchers are injury risks, every single one.

I agree with this almost entirely except to add a “yes, but”

 

It is possible to offer a lower total contract at more attractive terms. If for instance Donaldson’s offer from the Nats was 4 years 100M but half of the contract is deferred out over 12 years, while the Twins offer of 4 years 90 all during the 4 years, the Twins would be the better deal by time value of money.

 

But yeah, it still needs to be a better deal for the player.

[IndianaTwin]

NOW can I say that it was too early to evaluate the offseason on January 11?

 

It’s still too early, by the way.

[The Wise One]

 

No one is expecting that. If they could afford a $130 million payroll in 2018, it stands to reason they can afford a $140 million payroll in 2020 given higher ticket sales and inflation. Instead they're sitting a $110.

"According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Twins' estimated payroll obligation for 2020 is around $136.8 million, factoring in the $21 million that Donaldson will make and the $7 million that Sanó will now earn this season. The Twins' previous record for Opening Day payroll was $128.7 million in 2018."

 

per https://www.mlb.com/news/josh-donaldson-impact-on-twins-in-2020-and-beyond