Front Page: Let’s Wait to Declare the Offseason a Failure for the Minnesota Twins

[IndianaTwin]

 

But wasn't this FO largely responsible for the "one starter under contract on Nov. 1" situation in the first place? By this logic, their 2019-2020 offseason would have been worse if they had managed to trade for Stroman at the deadline, or extend Odorizzi earlier, or sign Corbin last winter, etc.

 

I think they've dealt with it adequately, at this point, but again, it's a situation of their own making, so I can't really give them extra credit for their work since Nov. 1st.

 

Definitely agree that it’s a problem of their own making, but it WAS the situation they were looking at on Nov. 1. I get what you’re saying about the activity level, but I’d differ on the interpretation. The goal is always to fill 100 percent of your needs from the end of one year to the next, whether that’s two spots to fill on a roster or 20. I don’t give them extra credit for their work since Nov. 1st — that WAS their work. 

 

Related, then, I would add that that’s another small success of this offseason that I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere. They’ve now got Berrios and Pineda under contract for 2021. That’s also part of why I’ve been advocating additional negotiation with Odo to turn his one-year contract into an extension. And while I’ve been advocating here or elsewhere for continued exploration of still more starting pitching through trade or even minor league contracts, the reality is that between injury and attrition, several from among the Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe/Graterol, etc. will get the chance to audition. If one or more of them comes through to the point that they can be counted on for 2021, that would be three or four rotation spots filled. 

 

And then, next year I’ll evaluate their offseason according to how much they improve the team between Nov. 1 and Opening Day 2021. I’d love it if they have less work to do next year!

[howieramone2]

Can anyone figure out why they don't like Mauer contracts?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

As I read all these comments, something is becomming clear...at least to me. There are two underlying beliefs that Twins fans, and TD reader/commenters, have about success.

 

One camp believes that the ultimate goal is to win a World Series. Although I don't want to speak for anyone else, it appears to me they would go all in to attempt to make that happen. All in sounds to me that they would trade a substantial portion of the organization's top prospects. If not breaking the bank, they would certainly push the budget well beyond recent limits to sign a couple 'impact' players. Whether or not that would affect future extensions for current young players, to heck with it if a World Series is within reach.

 

Others, including myself, believe that long-term success is important for both fans and the health of the franchise. Personally, I get a ton of happiness out of all those days over the long season when the Twins win. Heck, I enjoy most of the games they lose, assuming the game was competitive and exciting. To me, six months of feeling good about my team outweighs the week of total disappointment from going three and out in round one of the playoffs. [Don't misunderstand what I am saying, I would love my Twins to win the World Series...just not at any cost]

 

I think that is one of the major differences we have. I'll take a season long high, others want that high AND the ultimate prize. The good news is that pitchers and catchers report in 31 days when we will again have some real baseball to talk about.

I think this is an over-simplification. The World Series isn’t won in the offseason, and why I think this offseason is a failure has more to do with goals.

 

I do not want the FO to mortgage the future, but do want the FO to acquire a significant difference maker on the fielding side and the pitching side. Free agency when it is targeted and well timed, holds on to cheap future assets. Success rates of prospects are low, it takes a lot of them to develop just a few.

 

They can still make moves that make a significant impact on 2020 (and beyond) but not without giving up assets for future success.

 

There’s nothing wrong with what they’ve done, it just isn’t (and can’t be) successful, unless they somehow swindle another team in a trade. That doesn’t happen...

 

As to “how much is too much?”

Cole wasn’t gonna happen and that banana-pants money would have crippled the Twins. I’m glad they didn’t do it. But what Wheeler or Ryu got or even more would have been no real hardship.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Can anyone figure out why they don't like Mauer contracts?

To be honest, I don’t think we’ll see another Mauer type contract (8/184), and I’m okay with that. The trend for the Twins is for fewer years and I’m okay with that. Fewer years but a 23/year value shouldn’t be unacceptable, however.

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

How about signing one big time FA. Not all in. One. One big time FA. Or, even making one big time trade? one. Not trading the whole farm. Almost no one is arguing that. Really.

 

We don't care what the FO says about adding impact players or not. We care if they actually do add impact players.

 

In a year where they had budget room, and it was the best FA pitching class in decades, and, coincidentally, they needed to add pitching.

 

As for the WS, I want them to be favored in the playoffs because they have a better team. If they lose, sometimes that happens. But I have little interest in winning 90+ games and then getting dominated in the first round of the playoffs as everyone would predict given the rosters. Beating up on the worst division in baseball brings me very little at this point. I understand others disagree, but I don't really find it all that interesting to beat up on two -three of the worst teams in the game.

While I agree that it would have been nice to land one of the top FA pitchers, I'm curious about the specifics of who you wanted to add and how you would have done that (contract specifics). Outside of possibly Ryu, it doesn't seem like the Twins had much of a chance on any of the others. Not nitpicking, just curious.

[Mike Sixel]

While I agree that it would have been nice to land one of the top FA pitchers, I'm curious about the specifics of who you wanted to add and how you would have done that (contract specifics). Outside of possibly Ryu, it doesn't seem like the Twins had much of a chance on any of the others. Not nitpicking, just curious.

I've been clear for three years, add good long term pitching. They've failed for three years now. Darvish, Corbin, one of six or seven players this year. Stroman and Gallen last trade deadline. Want more names?

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

I've been clear for three years, add good long term pitching. They've failed for three years now. Darvish, Corbin, one of six or seven players this year. Stroman and Gallen last trade deadline. Want more names?

I was referring specifically to this offseason as I thought you were in your previous post. But yeah, when you stretch it out you can certainly build a stronger case (I would have loved to acquire Gallen as well, especially at that prospect price!). I was really just curious as to what you think the Twins would have had to have done to get one of the top 5 guys and what price you would be willing to pay as I don't think they had much of a realistic shot.

[Mike Sixel]

I was referring specifically to this offseason as I thought you were in your previous post. But yeah, when you stretch it out you can certainly build a stronger case (I would have loved to acquire Gallen as well, especially at that prospect price!). I was really just curious as to what you think the Twins would have had to have done to get one of the top 5 guys and what price you would be willing to pay as I don't think they had much of a realistic shot.

It's their job to fix this. If they can't sign one expensive free agent in four years, if their largest deal is for Jason Castro, then they aren't succeeding at party of their job. Note, I said part....

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

It's their job to fix this. If they can't sign one expensive free agent in four years, if their largest deal is for Jason Castro, then they aren't succeeding at party of their job. Note, I said part....

You actually said "party."

[howieramone2]

Mike, I want more names, to see if any make sense. At least you didn't bring up we should have drafted Mike Trout instead of Kyle Gibson.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's their job to fix this. If they can't sign one expensive free agent in four years, if their largest deal is for Jason Castro, then they aren't succeeding at party of their job. Note, I said part....

I think this front office is doing a very good job with the exception of free agents.

 

At some point, they need to acknowledge that getting a top tier player signed is more important than value.

 

Pay that extra $3-4m a year or tack on an extra year and just get it done. This young core isn’t going to remain young and cheap forever.

 

Now is not the time to be sticking to a valuation spreadsheet when what the team needs is better players at key positions. In the grand scheme of things, a few million bucks barely impacts coming seasons.

[howieramone2]

Brock, this is exactly the right time for a mid-market team with marginal ownership to stick to their guns. 3 of the 5 are extended and we're in position to sweep. Overpay with prospect capital, which the Pohlad's neither control or understand.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

(contract specifics)

Wheeler could have been recruited here. He was not predestined for Philly in any way, shape or form. Offer him 10% more than the highest offer and an ironclad promise that Twins fans won’t throw glass beer bottles at your fiancée if you don’t make it through five innings.

 

Bumgarner got 5/80. Offer him 4/80, maybe even slightly front loaded, plus a player opt out after two years so he can bargain with Arizona.

 

Ryu, dunno. Same offer, earlier in the free agency period, maybe that gets it done if you buy the thought that his price was driven up from being the last best remaining free agent pitcher.

 

Thoughts?

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

Wheeler could have been recruited here. He was not predestined for Philly in any way, shape or form. Offer him 10% more than the highest offer and an ironclad promise that Twins fans won’t throw glass beer bottles at your fiancée if you don’t make it through five innings.

Bumgarner got 5/80. Offer him 4/80, maybe even slightly front loaded, plus a player opt out after two years so he can bargain with Arizona.

Ryu, dunno. Same offer, earlier in the free agency period, maybe that gets it done if you buy the thought that his price was driven up from being the last best remaining free agent pitcher.

Thoughts?

But they're plastic beer bottles! Thanks for the specifics. If I remember correctly, Chicago offered Wheeler $125. Assuming that's the top offer, that would make the Twins hypothetical offer $137.5 over 5 years - would you go that high?

 

It would be interesting to know exactly what Bumgarner would have been offered had he not been so committed to Arizona. The opt-out is an interesting monkey wretch. I would be fine with that, but I still don't know if that would get him to Minnesota (he loves his horses!)

 

Ryu's interesting. I have to think the Twins were scared off by his injury history.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

But they're plastic beer bottles! Thanks for the specifics. If I remember correctly, Chicago offered Wheeler $125. Assuming that's the top offer, that would make the Twins hypothetical offer $137.5 over 5 years - would you go that high?

 

It would be interesting to know exactly what Bumgarner would have been offered had he not been so committed to Arizona. The opt-out is an interesting monkey wretch. I would be fine with that, but I still don't know if that would get him to Minnesota (he loves his horses!)

 

Ryu's interesting. I have to think the Twins were scared off by his injury history.

I have no idea how the Twins evaluated Ryu or the other 2-3 decent guys they had a realistic shot at. But factoring in everything else, I think the Twins needed pitching worse than any other team, and therefore should have been willing to pay more for it.

[USAFChief]

The offseason was a failure when Ryu went off the board. The Twins needed to add one of those "impact" free agent pitchers. They didn't. Failure.

 

This isnt rocket science, and no matter how the season turns out, this was a swing and miss. As many have pointed out, decision making should be judged based on what's known at the time, not after results come in.

 

They can still make the offseason better, but they cant make it a success.

[howieramone2]

This is in fact rocket science. We continue to dominate the Central and no one can predict what will happen in a short series. The best team doesn't always win. The team that gets hot does. Don't confuse free agency with Christmas.

[howeda7]

 

If you want to call the off-season a failure because the FO said they would pursue "impact pitching" and to this point we haven't seen it, that's fine. For me that's of little importance for a couple of reasons...

 

1. The roster as it stands currently is better than last year, at least on paper. We lost Castro (.7 WAR) replaced by Avila (1.4 WAR), Cron (1.4) replaced by M Gonzalez(1.6 WAR) unless we add someone, Schoop (1.6 WAR) replaced by Arraez (1.8 WAR-in only 366 PA's), Kyle Gibson (.3 WAR) replaced by H Bailey (1.8 WAR), M Perez (.2 WAR) replaced by R Hill (1.3 WAR in only 58 IP), B Parker (.3 WAR) replaced by T Clippard (1.4 WAR)

 

2. Fortunately, the Twins aren't limited to the off-season. As someone pointed out it could prove difficult to trade for any impact players at this point as most organizations want to see how the season starts prior to moving players like this. By the time the trade deadline comes around this won't be the case as more teams will be looking to move quality veteran players for prospects. If the Twins are having the kind of year we expect at that time I would expect the FO to aggressively pursue those options based on our needs at that time.

 

Lastly, here is my take on the offseason. The FO was thinking that outside of Cole & Strasburg this offseason would be more like last year and you could land Wheeler or Ryu on a team friendly deal. Obviously, that didn't happen so they made their best offer to Wheeler and were outbid and backed off Ryu because of the length of contract. All of this talk about "impact pitching makes me curious how much better would you feel about our chances in the playoffs (assuming we make it) with Wheeler or Ryu? Is that worth damaging our ability to extend our young core?

You can't treat Gonzalez as an addition over Cron. Gonzalez played a lot last year. If he becomes a starter, his bench AB's will be taken by Cave/Wade/Adrianza. That's a downgrade. 

[howeda7]

With Frazier and Alex Wood off the board, we can just about declare FA dead, barring a miracle with Donaldson. This is our team. It was a failed off-season. Big time. 

[Mr. Brooks]

But they're plastic beer bottles! Thanks for the specifics. If I remember correctly, Chicago offered Wheeler $125. Assuming that's the top offer, that would make the Twins hypothetical offer $137.5 over 5 years - would you go that high?

 

It would be interesting to know exactly what Bumgarner would have been offered had he not been so committed to Arizona. The opt-out is an interesting monkey wretch. I would be fine with that, but I still don't know if that would get him to Minnesota (he loves his horses!)

 

Ryu's interesting. I have to think the Twins were scared off by his injury history.

I have no way of knowing if a larger offer could have lured Wheeler away from Philadelphia.

 

But what a do know is that offering him less wasn't going to do it.

 

That's my main beef with the way this FO operates in free agency.

(And for the record I still support them.) Offering less money isn't going to lure them away from somewhere they prefer to be, so why even make that offer? That's why i have a hard time considering these "serious" offers.

Yes, $100M is a lot of money. Even in the context of pro athletes, it's a lot of money. But it's still less than the amount offered by his preferred destination!

 

And to go on record, I'd have matched the Ryu offer. I think in the context of this FA period, it's a very reasonable contract.

All pitchers are injury risks, every single one.

[USAFChief]

 

This is in fact rocket science. We continue to dominate the Central and no one can predict what will happen in a short series. The best team doesn't always win. The team that gets hot does. Don't confuse free agency with Christmas.

Ignoring the questionable calling of one consecutive ALC championship "dominating the Central," this reads like an apology for a failed offseason.

 

"We can't actually be one of the best teams, but maybe we can get lucky."

[diehardtwinsfan]

So... the offseason isn't technically over yet, so I think it's fair to say that it isn't necessarily a failure... but...

 

If this is it, then it absolutely was a failure and fans have a right to be frustrated. We went into the offseason with a ton of payroll space and the need to add 4 starting pitchers. We managed to retain 2, who admittedly were 2 of the better options out there, but replaced the other two with a 34 year old and a 40 year old pitcher. That's a lot of risk which more likely than not will put us back in the exact same position we were in last year.. 

 

I'm not going to get too concerned about payroll, but not going all in after a 101 win season and a core under contract is a bit perplexing. If we get Donaldson, perhaps, but that still leaves us exposed to some pretty big risk on the SP front. I could see the farm coming through and giving us one starter we can hang a hat on for 2021, but 3 (and that assumes no injuries)? I'm not liking it. We needed impact in the rotation. I'm not sure we've got that as it is presently constructed.

 

[Major League Ready]

 

So... the offseason isn't technically over yet, so I think it's fair to say that it isn't necessarily a failure... but...

 

If this is it, then it absolutely was a failure and fans have a right to be frustrated. We went into the offseason with a ton of payroll space and the need to add 4 starting pitchers. We managed to retain 2, who admittedly were 2 of the better options out there, but replaced the other two with a 34 year old and a 40 year old pitcher. That's a lot of risk which more likely than not will put us back in the exact same position we were in last year.. 

 

I'm not going to get too concerned about payroll, but not going all in after a 101 win season and a core under contract is a bit perplexing. If we get Donaldson, perhaps, but that still leaves us exposed to some pretty big risk on the SP front. I could see the farm coming through and giving us one starter we can hang a hat on for 2021, but 3 (and that assumes no injuries)? I'm not liking it. We needed impact in the rotation. I'm not sure we've got that as it is presently constructed.

 

 

 

What would you have done differently?

 

Outbid the top revenue team in league for Cole?

Given an 8th year to Stassburg which still might not been enough to get him away from the Nats?

Massive overpay for Wheeler to get him to ignore family values

Massive overpay for Madbum to compensate him for his preference to be in Arizona.

Outbid the Jays 4/80 bid for a 33 y/o with a significant history of injury.

 

Which one sounds like the most realistic or best option for a below average revenue team?

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

What would you have done differently?

 

Outbid the top revenue team in league for Cole?

Given an 8th year to Stassburg which still might not been enough to get him away from the Nats?

Massive overpay for Wheeler to get him to ignore family values

Massive overpay for Madbum to compensate him for his preference to be in Arizona.

Outbid the Jays 4/80 bid for a 33 y/o with a significant history of injury.

 

Which one sounds like the most realistic or best option for a below average revenue team?

 

As you know, each individual decision can be correct, while the whole can be wrong. The team needs pitching, and it failed to get good pitching.

 

It's like a team in the NFL drafting a QB in every round, because that was the best player available at every pick. Individually you could justify each decision, but not the collection of decisions. 

 

You can also have a situation where the deck is stacked against you. It's their job to make it so that players want to come here, whether the deck is stacked against them or not. This off season 4. At some point, if they can't convince any expensive FA to come here, they've failed at fixing the deck to be more in their favor.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

As I read all these comments, something is becomming clear...at least to me.  There are two underlying beliefs that Twins fans, and TD reader/commenters, have about success.

 

One camp believes that the ultimate goal is to win a World Series.  Although I don't want to speak for anyone else, it appears to me they would go all in to attempt to make that happen.  All in sounds to me that they would trade a substantial portion of the organization's top prospects.  If not breaking the bank, they would certainly push the budget well beyond recent limits to sign a couple 'impact' players.  Whether or not that would affect future extensions for current young players, to heck with it if a World Series is within reach.

 

Others, including myself, believe that long-term success is important for both fans and the health of the franchise.  Personally, I get a ton of happiness out of all those days over the long season when the Twins win.  Heck, I enjoy most of the games they lose, assuming the game was competitive and exciting.  To me, six months of feeling good about my team outweighs the week of total disappointment from going three and out in round one of the playoffs. [Don't misunderstand what I am saying, I would love my Twins to win the World Series...just not at any cost] 

 

I think that is one of the major differences we have.  I'll take a season long high, others want that high AND the ultimate prize.  The good news is that pitchers and catchers report in 31 days when we will again have some real baseball to talk about.

 

You forget about the guys that take the middle ground. Just because you want to see a few prospects traded or an impact guy signed doesnt mean you want to break the bank or trade a substantial portion of your top prospects. 

 

What I and others see is a team with not much money that has to be paid this year or next. Wouldn't hurt a thing right now to spend some of it on an impact guy. 

 

I also see a team with their lineup full and some redundency in their system with hot shot prospects. You can't play both the guys that are starting now and these prospects. Why not trade from a position of strength to beef up a place of weakness(pitching)? These prospects are worth lots right now. You don't need to trade them all but if you have 3-4 guys that profile as corner outfielders, you can afford to move one of them. When you have an all-star shortstop and a good young player at 2B, it's okay to move a middle infielder and bet on the guys you have there now that are producing. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

There are plenty of things happening in this world that make me truly angry and despair for mankind as a whole.

Baseball ain’t one of those things.

Am I frustrated? Sure, definitely. But, at the end of the day, this is intended to be entertainment, not the Nuremberg trials.

 

Not truly angry as in this makes me mad and I just can't go on. In the scheme of life this is a baseball team and it won't affect my life one way or another. 

 

I guess I should have said frustrated. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

What would you have done differently?

 

Outbid the top revenue team in league for Cole?

Given an 8th year to Stassburg which still might not been enough to get him away from the Nats?

Massive overpay for Wheeler to get him to ignore family values

Massive overpay for Madbum to compensate him for his preference to be in Arizona.

Outbid the Jays 4/80 bid for a 33 y/o with a significant history of injury.

 

Which one sounds like the most realistic or best option for a below average revenue team?

 

Offered Wheeler 5/135 mil

Offered Madbum 4/100 mill

Offered Ryu 3/80

 

Yes, I would have done things like this is that order. That would have guaranteed we get one of them

 

The differences in these offers and what the Twins had on the table amounts to about 3-5 million more per year. If they were willing to go to 100 with Wheeler, 80 with Madbum or 65 with Ryu, the difference is basically what would amount to a bullpen arm or a utility player. A bullpen arm or position player that could be easily filled with someone in your system for the league minimum. 

 

 

 

. 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What would you have done differently?

 

Outbid the top revenue team in league for Cole?

Given an 8th year to Stassburg which still might not been enough to get him away from the Nats?

Massive overpay for Wheeler to get him to ignore family values

Massive overpay for Madbum to compensate him for his preference to be in Arizona.

Outbid the Jays 4/80 bid for a 33 y/o with a significant history of injury.

 

Which one sounds like the most realistic or best option for a below average revenue team?

Cole and Strassburg were my targets.. I'd likely have backed out of Cole at that price, but I'd have had no problem with an 8th year for Strassburg… I'd have likely bid quite a bit higher on the remaining tier 2 guys as well... and if that still failed, a trade would have happened. I suppose that could still happen, but I'm not holding my breath after Baily/Hill. 

 

Like it or not, we were in a position where we needed to do a massive overpay. That's the nature of FA and we had the money to do it. Perhaps Donaldson helps that a bit, but we're still short some pitching even if we get him. 

[Major League Ready]

 

As you know, each individual decision can be correct, while the whole can be wrong. The team needs pitching, and it failed to get good pitching.

 

It's like a team in the NFL drafting a QB in every round, because that was the best player available at every pick. Individually you could justify each decision, but not the collection of decisions. 

 

You can also have a situation where the deck is stacked against you. It's their job to make it so that players want to come here, whether the deck is stacked against them or not. This off season 4. At some point, if they can't convince any expensive FA to come here, they've failed at fixing the deck to be more in their favor.

 

Cole and Srassburg were economic reality. Wheeler and Badbum had very strong preferences to be with a specific team. Your positioning suggests they just did not want to come to Minnesota. There were numerous other teams interested in Wheeler/Madbum. Any of those teams could have offered a massive overpay. They did not. Do you suppose fans have a superior grasp of what’s best for the teams as compared to all of the GMs who did not act?

 

They made a judgment call on Ryu which is very hard to criticize if any critical thought is applied. Obviously, The Dodgers felt the money could be invested more productively elsewhere. Kasten and Freidman have stellar reputations. Do Twins fans know better than them too?

 

Before you condemn, consider the only playoff teams from last year that did not go backwards were the Yankees and the possibly the Braves. Houston lost almost 13 WAR and replaced it with very little. Milwaukee lost Grandal / Moose / Pomeranz / Gonzales and Thames. Their only significant addition has been Garcia. TB lost Garcia and D’Arnaud and added literally nobody. Oakland lost Anderson / Roark and Bailey while adding nobody. STLs net add is Michael Wacha for 1/3M. Washington lost Rondon and replaced him with 7 players who add up to the same salary Rendon received. Basically, the opposite philosophy you are asserting. One team basically was able to achieve what you are asserting should be expected and that team did it based mostly on financial advantage. Pretty easy to expect perfection. Another thing all together to achieve it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Cole and Srassburg were economic reality. Wheeler and Badbum had very strong preferences to be with a specific team. Your positioning suggests they just did not want to come to Minnesota. There were numerous other teams interested in Wheeler/Madbum. Any of those teams could have offered a massive overpay. They did not. Do you suppose fans have a superior grasp of what’s best for the teams as compared to all of the GMs who did not act?

 

They made a judgment call on Ryu which is very hard to criticize if any critical thought is applied. Obviously, The Dodgers felt the money could be invested more productively elsewhere. Kasten and Freidman have stellar reputations. Do Twins fans know better than them too?

 

Before you condemn, consider the only playoff teams from last year that did not go backwards were the Yankees and the possibly the Braves. Houston lost almost 13 WAR and replaced it with very little. Milwaukee lost Grandal / Moose / Pomeranz / Gonzales and Thames. Their only significant addition has been Garcia. TB lost Garcia and D’Arnaud and added literally nobody. Oakland lost Anderson / Roark and Bailey while adding nobody. STLs net add is Michael Wacha for 1/3M. Washington lost Rondon and replaced him with 7 players who add up to the same salary Rendon received. Basically, the opposite philosophy you are asserting. One team basically was able to achieve what you are asserting should be expected and that team did it based mostly on financial advantage. Pretty easy to expect perfection. Another thing all together to achieve it.

 

It's been four years, and they've not added one long term pitching starter to the rotation. You can view that as good, or bad. Up to you. This isn't about one year, never has been. 

 

If the other teams are moving backward, what better time to move forward?